Rubber Trees

[thaiguzzi]

Bit quite on here without Jim innit.

Just opened our trees yesterday and today. This year a 7 week shut down as opposed to 10-11 weeks last year.

Bloody hot and dry.

Mike.

[kwonitoy]

Mike:

What kind of prodution are getting?

I've looked in the cups of some neighbors that have been cutting for quite a while and there wasn't much in there.

I told the wife I wanted to wait untill we get some substantial rain before cutting again

Ken

[glennb6]

we're probably going to start cutting again but I suspect that because the weather has been so dry that it won't be worth it. Shoot, with the price of rubber falling so hard, might be better cutting it all to sell as firewood...

[Mosha]

We are tapping but only doing kee yang yet. We took our pup to the vet last night. It absolutely pissed it down in Ranong. Roads turned to rivers etc. Less than 10 miles as the crow flies to home. Not a drop. What a difference a few miles makes.

[thaiguzzi]

Ken,

no production as yet, only opened/tapped once, and daytime at that. Another daytime cut today. normally takes 3-4 tappings before anything of significance comes out.

Glenn, some good news on the stockmarkets lately, good US auto data, i just hope bumps the rubber price up. I doubt it though and i can't see Kee Yang being even 45 bt per kilo average this year. Possibly high 30's, low 40's.

<deleted>.

[Mosha]

Wifey has just called the depot. Kee Yang 31/kg

[thaiguzzi]

Wifey has just called the depot. Kee Yang 31/kg

Bejeezus ! Time to sell up and get into property development.!

[cobbler]

we're probably going to start cutting again but I suspect that because the weather has been so dry that it won't be worth it. Shoot, with the price of rubber falling so hard, might be better cutting it all to sell as firewood...

Yep/No water going in ,no rubber coming out.It's simple as that.We don/t bother opening now until we get our 1st rain early may

[cobbler]

,"

Wifey has just called the depot. Kee Yang 31/kg

Saw A report yesterday on Thai TV saying."Expect 100 to 140 per kilo this year for rubber"Depends who is behind the report.If it's private,ok you can believe it,.If it's gov ,it's a gamble if it's true or not.

[Dakling]

,"

Wifey has just called the depot. Kee Yang 31/kg

Saw A report yesterday on Thai TV saying."Expect 100 to 140 per kilo this year for rubber"Depends who is behind the report.If it's private,ok you can believe it,.If it's gov ,it's a gamble if it's true or not.

In theory the slow and choppy global recovery that we are experiencing should soon lead to increasing commodity prices.My guess is that the Thai Baht is on a bit of a bubble right now as well. Both of these things bode well for future rubber prices but then again who knows, if the Korea thing kicks off we could be back at square one.

[thaiguzzi]

Mate of mine down the road sold "at the gate" yesterday 39 bt per kg, kee yang (Udon), ie auction prices should be low 40's. Maybe not as bad as i thought. Regarding long term prices, even if the world economy picks up and industry wants more rubber... there is a HELL OF A LOT new rubber being stuck in the ground in Isaan.

Mike.

[scotbeve]

I just realized that I have never posted a follow up on our fire issue. Turns out that the fire was not lit on the neighboring farm but was actually lit on a plot of land about 500m away. Apparently some fine gentleman thought that lighting his field on a windy day after 2 months of drought would be a good idea. He managed to burn about 20 or 30 small plots before the fire had enough and put itself out. We not only lost the 20 trees I originally saw on the perimeter but we also lost about another 10 at random throughout the field from sparks that blew in from other fields and ignited bits of grass in the middle of our plot. After I went of half-cocked at the neighbor farm owner the wife refuses to tell me who actually lit the fire in case I was to meet him.

Sorry for your loss. How old were the trees?

[Mosha]

Had a bit of rain, i feel like I'm in a sauna now. As to the price, I can;t see the Chinese still paying that 100/kg 555

[Dakling]

Sorry for your loss. How old were the trees?

Thanks

They were 2 year old 600's. Thinking of replacing them with something that will mature faster so that they can catch up.

Mate of mine down the road sold "at the gate" yesterday 39 bt per kg, kee yang (Udon), ie auction prices should be low 40's. Maybe not as bad as i thought. Regarding long term prices, even if the world economy picks up and industry wants more rubber... there is a HELL OF A LOT new rubber being stuck in the ground in Isaan.

Mike.

I think the number of trees going in up in Issan is going to be more than offset for the plantations down south that are switching to Palm but that is just a guess. I am more worried about India and China.

[Mosha]

I do remember a Discovery programme about rubber. 15* either side of the equator are it's limits

[cobbler]

We just had 20 mm of rain today.Pissed down for about an hour.That should set the veins flowing in the trees 555.We should be off to a good start this year.Will still not open till early may though.

[Mosha]

It's pissed it down most of the afternoon over this side.

[cobbler]

Dam right it did Mosha.Yesterday Morning I measured 32 mm of rain and this morning 21 mm.It's still raining now.This is great.We are thinking of opening.We'll see what our mentors do .If they open we will surely open.If we open it will mean our closed season was only just under 4 weeks.So looking good for this seasons kick off.Total of 73 mm of rain in the last 3 days.should get the white stuff flowing very nicely .

[scotbeve]

Dam right it did Mosha.Yesterday Morning I measured 32 mm of rain and this morning 21 mm.It's still raining now.This is great.We are thinking of opening.We'll see what our mentors do .If they open we will surely open.If we open it will mean our closed season was only just under 4 weeks.So looking good for this seasons kick off.Total of 73 mm of rain in the last 3 days.should get the white stuff flowing very nicely .

That's good news cobbler! Our plantations had about 7 good rains between mid-Jan. to date (in Mae Ai). Still going to have 4 bores drilled tho'....

[thaiguzzi]

No proper rain here in Udon since bloody end of september! Over 6 months! Us poor Isaan farmers...

[Mosha]

I am officially calling the dry season over. Raining so hard, I can't watch the GP.

[cobbler]

Yep dry season is over.Another 42 mm in the rain guage this morning.Still raining all day today.

We will open when this rain stops.Will have had a closed season of 4 weeks on Wednesday.

Issan folks don't need to worry as you all seem to have a lot more trees than us southern folk.

Had our Mon Worker up on our roof cleaning the leaves out of the gutter round the house.Pissing down rain so hard ,water was over flowing.

All the bananas are smileing and the chillis.1trillion yung also are very happy too

Go the yang farmers

Edited April 15, 2013 by cobbler

[cobbler]

Edited April 15, 2013 by cobbler

[cobbler]

Another 31mm in the rain guage this morning.Looks like it's not over yet.Can push a stick of bamboo size of a ruler,1 foot down into the ground now.Last week ,couldn't scratch the surface.Saw a guy 2 nights ago ,down the road with half a pui bag of frogs in it.He had enough food for a week.Laab gob,tom yum gob,fried gob,goytio gob,cowpad gob,barbeque gob.Up to you gob.

[wijar]

Yep dry season is over.Another 42 mm in the rain guage this morning.Still raining all day today.

We will open when this rain stops.Will have had a closed season of 4 weeks on Wednesday.

Issan folks don't need to worry as you all seem to have a lot more trees than us southern folk.

Had our Mon Worker up on our roof cleaning the leaves out of the gutter round the house.Pissing down rain so hard ,water was over flowing.

All the bananas are smileing and the chillis.1trillion yung also are very happy too

Go the yang farmers

Cobbler, you are lucky, last time I asked someone to clean my gutter, they removed it. couldn't block anymore with leaves and dove nests! Had some logic to it I suppose.

[Mosha]

Another 31mm in the rain guage this morning.Looks like it's not over yet.Can push a stick of bamboo size of a ruler,1 foot down into the ground now.Last week ,couldn't scratch the surface.Saw a guy 2 nights ago ,down the road with half a pui bag of frogs in it.He had enough food for a week.Laab gob,tom yum gob,fried gob,goytio gob,cowpad gob,barbeque gob.Up to you gob.

Geng gob, aroi mak

[cobbler]

Yep dry season is over.Another 42 mm in the rain guage this morning.Still raining all day today.

We will open when this rain stops.Will have had a closed season of 4 weeks on Wednesday.

Issan folks don't need to worry as you all seem to have a lot more trees than us southern folk.

Had our Mon Worker up on our roof cleaning the leaves out of the gutter round the house.Pissing down rain so hard ,water was over flowing.

All the bananas are smileing and the chillis.1trillion yung also are very happy too

Go the yang farmers

Cobbler, you are lucky, last time I asked someone to clean my gutter, they removed it. couldn't block anymore with leaves and dove nests! Had some logic to it I suppose.

Haha yes I can see the logic in that..We use the water .Have three 700 liter cement tanks for showering and washing clothes and such.Never run out.

Lucky it wasn't me on the roof,I would have ended up on my back in the lounge room.OUCH.

[Mosha]

Dry last night.

[cobbler]

Have had over 150mm of rain in the last 5 or so days.Will open today.closed season of 4 weeks and 1 day.

[Charlie1]

Hi farmers,

the following Scenario might be interesting, partially wrong, put up a lot of questions or maybe, I also get some advice from the most experienced amongst you:

Looking for land since more than 1 year now (Palm or rubber). Have bought 9 Rai palm near our home around Krabi and that's doing really well.

I have a Budget of 8 Million Baht to buy some more and got the following offer today:

94 Rai, Por Bor Tor, Rubber 20 years old, 4,5 Mio Baht (steep slope, but easy to walk)

7 Rai, Nor Sor Sam, Palm 8 years old, 2,8 Mio Baht (flat land)

20 Rai, Nor Sor Sam, 10 Rai empty and 10 Rai Rubber, 20 years old, 2,5 Mio Baht (flat land)

All is from one owner, total Price is 9,8 Mio Baht, might reduce to 9 Mio, sells only in a package deal (the missing one Million can be organized)

Please no comments on the land title deed, I know.. and... no, I'm not moving to Issaan, where it's all cheaper, I know as well...

As the trees of alltogether 104 Rai are old, I would cut them and get return of the Wood selling, approx. 4,5 Mio Baht.

I would then return the one Million which I was missing and pay for chopping the trees, preparing the land for new trees, etc: 1 Mio Baht

Then I would still have 2,5 Mio Baht left over and put new trees, which apparently cost 20 Baht plus the work 15 Baht (per tree)

104 Rai at 75 trees at 35 Baht would be a total cost of 273.000 Baht.

Now, my most important questions are:

1) What are the cost for fertzilizer for young trees per Rai per year?

2) I was told, one tree, when at cutting age, more or less bring one Baht a day (of cutting, I know there's many days off). Would that one Baht be a net profit or do I still have to deduct the cutters share (40-60 or 50-50)?

As far as the palm part is concerned, I know the figures.

Would be great if someone could give at least some approximate answer.

Thanx a lot!!