Rumour Mill Rife But Leaders Expected To Get Provisional Go-Ahead

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BURNING ISSUE

Rumour mill rife but leaders expected to get provisional go-ahead

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Conspiracy theorists and doomsayers have had a field day in the wake of the Election Commission's decision to delay the balloting endorsement for some 142 MPs-elect, including Pheu Thai's Yingluck Shinawatra and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.

The EC is due to meet today and rule on whether to endorse a new batch of MPs. However, it remains unclear if the EC can deliver decisions on separate complaints involving Yingluck and Abhisit.

In the face of prevailing uncertainty, a conspiracy theory has spread like wildfire - that an "invisible hand" is working hard to manipulate the law in a bid to deny Yingluck's election victory and block her path to become the country's first female prime minister.

In comparison to past elections, the July 3 vote saw fewer complaints about campaign violations. But these received high media exposure for three reasons.

First, the EC extended the deadline for lodging campaign-related complaints to July 11. In the past, the cut-off date was on the polling day. Due to extra time, many complaints were filed after the balloting.

This, in turn, caused the EC to endorse the balloting outcome later than usual, triggering suspicion of post-election foul play.

Second, complainants were not just rivals and parties but involved opponents of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra. The anti-Thaksin camp included the yellow- and multi-coloured shirts.

Third, some complaints, particularly those lodged by the anti-Thaksin camp, focused on the former PM's domination of campaigning and individual qualifications of Pheu Thai party-list candidates such as Yingluck and red shirts.

As the referee for the election, the EC is obliged to thoroughly check complaints regardless of how solid, flimsy or unsubstantiated they may be.

The checks take time and may not be completed before the House of Representatives convenes its first session, tentatively scheduled for August 3. The EC has confirmed, however, that it will endorse at least 475 MPs-elect, accounting for 95 per cent, to make up a House quorum within the 30-day deadline.

At this point, the EC is likely to give provisional endorsement this week for Yingluck and Abhisit. If evidence is found of campaign violations, the EC can disqualify the two at a later date.

A strong argument against Abhisit is that the Commerce Ministry organised a sale of consumer goods at discounted prices, known as the Thong Fa programme, on the advance balloting day. But there is no evidence to link Abhisit or the other Democrats to the scheduling of the event.

The most serious allegation against Yingluck is that on the first day of her campaigning in Chiang Mai, she appeared along with her sister Yaowapha and brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat. Yaowapha and Somchai are both former party executives barred from the electoral process.

The EC has yet to issue guidelines on the dos and don'ts for barred executives during campaigning. But there is no precedent for penalising a candidate for appearing in public with a barred executive.

The investigation into Thaksin's involvement in campaigning might take months to complete and this should not become an obstacle for the EC to issue its provisional endorsement.

The legal issues involving the red shirts are complex and might block certain MPs-elect from holding office. Although the EC has already endorsed their qualifications as electoral candidates, this does not imply an automatic licence to become a lawmaker.

The case involving New Democracy Party leader Surathin Pijarn should serve as a lesson for the red shirts. Surathin got initial endorsement to run as a party-list candidate but had his victory revoked after the EC discovered he had been declared bankrupt.

-- The Nation 2011-07-19