nong38 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Great topic, but I ask, 'Thai Default Would Great For Farang "? Given that if the flooding of Thailands industrial base and much of its rice basket, decrease in the tourist trade plus the cost of the new government's election promises, will have a dramatic effect in GDP. i feel like at some point the red shirts are going to want to print and distribute some money to their voters otherwise the voters might lose interest in this whole revolution thingy Thats why they have set up these RED VILLAGES, get some printing presses in then have a democratic vote on who's picture is on the money, there is a choice but you had better make the right one or leave the village. Do you need a clue? As soon as results are in the presses start and if the rest of the country dont take the money could be a few rallies around on the away grounds, just like last year but without the army, the army are no fun anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
letitbe Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 However, I don't think dollar would go anywhere near 38-40. I'd be really happy if it did, but I can't see it happening. One never knows, do one? When I was working here in tsunami relief, 2005, it was 44/1, around there, the whole time. I didn't personally experience it, but someone told me that for a time it was up around 50. And when I moved here a few years ago it was still around 36-37. So dreams are not necessarily as improbable as the lottery. It seems to me that 38-40 is not out of the question. But then, unfortunately, neither is 25. us$ is toast as is GBP and Euro the 3 ugly sisters weather thai baht weakens or not is purely a function of how competent or incompetent thai government is and weather they also engage QE printing money like in the west. It matters not dear boy most fiat currencies are going down toilet and even if you get your dream of 40 baht to US $ its only going to happen if Thailand prints money as fast or faster than USA and rest and if they do inflation will hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waza Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 However, I don't think dollar would go anywhere near 38-40. I'd be really happy if it did, but I can't see it happening. One never knows, do one? When I was working here in tsunami relief, 2005, it was 44/1, around there, the whole time. I didn't personally experience it, but someone told me that for a time it was up around 50. And when I moved here a few years ago it was still around 36-37. So dreams are not necessarily as improbable as the lottery. It seems to me that 38-40 is not out of the question. But then, unfortunately, neither is 25. us$ is toast as is GBP and Euro the 3 ugly sisters weather thai baht weakens or not is purely a function of how competent or incompetent thai government is and weather they also engage QE printing money like in the west. It matters not dear boy most fiat currencies are going down toilet and even if you get your dream of 40 baht to US $ its only going to happen if Thailand prints money as fast or faster than USA and rest and if they do inflation will hit hard. Yep, Inflation thats the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 well ECRI says there is a recession and they charge $200,000 a year I think for their newsletter. old invalid Zimbabwe Dollars? you can download the ECRI newsletter free of charge here: http://www.ecri.be/n...tumn%202011.pdf "ECRI Explains Its Recession Call" http://blogs.wsj.com...recession-call/ "“It's Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI's Achuthan Says" http://finance.yahoo...-141929160.html :sleepy: i just checked. to get the newsletter an hour and a half early it costs 55k a year. please stop bullsh**** us! ECRI's quarterly newsletter is free, subscription of the monthly newsletter is GBP 375 + VAT for British subscribers and USD 590 for international subscribers. plus there is no such thing like "1½ hours early". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 well ECRI says there is a recession and they charge $200,000 a year I think for their newsletter. old invalid Zimbabwe Dollars? you can download the ECRI newsletter free of charge here: http://www.ecri.be/n...tumn%202011.pdf "ECRI Explains Its Recession Call" http://blogs.wsj.com...recession-call/ ""It's Going to Get a Lot Worse": ECRI's Achuthan Says" http://finance.yahoo...-141929160.html :sleepy: i just checked. to get the newsletter an hour and a half early it costs 55k a year. please stop bullsh**** us! ECRI's quarterly newsletter is free, subscription of the monthly newsletter is GBP 375 + VAT for British subscribers and USD 590 for international subscribers. plus there is no such thing like "1½ hours early". It probably a load of jargon and twaddle, out of date by the time its printed. So you are then left with musings and the guessing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It probably a load of jargon and twaddle, out of date by the time its printed. So you are then left with musings and the guessing game. bull's eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Great topic, but I ask, 'Thai Default Would Great For Farang "? Given that if the flooding of Thailands industrial base and much of its rice basket, decrease in the tourist trade plus the cost of the new government's election promises, will have a dramatic effect in GDP. Default on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Great topic, but I ask, 'Thai Default Would Great For Farang "? Given that if the flooding of Thailands industrial base and much of its rice basket, decrease in the tourist trade plus the cost of the new government's election promises, will have a dramatic effect in GDP. Default on what? som tam and phrik nam pla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Europe defaulting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Isn't it really the other way around though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 (edited) Isn't it really the other way around though? zat is vhat ze Tchermanns vant ze ozzers to believe fife hoondred billyon? vone trillyon to safe ze Yewro? vhere is ze proplem? vee leveratch! bekos no Yewro = Tchermanny is doomed. my anal-ysis and the cartoon apply of course to Europe not defaulting. Edited October 27, 2011 by Naam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 (edited) well ECRI says there is a recession and they charge $200,000 a year I think for their newsletter. old invalid Zimbabwe Dollars? you can download the ECRI newsletter free of charge here: http://www.ecri.be/n...tumn%202011.pdf "ECRI Explains Its Recession Call" http://blogs.wsj.com...recession-call/ ""It's Going to Get a Lot Worse": ECRI's Achuthan Says" http://finance.yahoo...-141929160.html :sleepy: i just checked. to get the newsletter an hour and a half early it costs 55k a year. please stop bullsh**** us! ECRI's quarterly newsletter is free, subscription of the monthly newsletter is GBP 375 + VAT for British subscribers and USD 590 for international subscribers. plus there is no such thing like "1½ hours early". here is a link. http://mindonmoney.w...ally-that-good/ Edited October 28, 2011 by farang000999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 except that cutting bonds 50% means CDS will be engaged and then the shit storm will create a recession. the euro zone needs at least a trillion to save itself. Europe defaulting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 However, I don't think dollar would go anywhere near 38-40. I'd be really happy if it did, but I can't see it happening. One never knows, do one? When I was working here in tsunami relief, 2005, it was 44/1, around there, the whole time. I didn't personally experience it, but someone told me that for a time it was up around 50. And when I moved here a few years ago it was still around 36-37. So dreams are not necessarily as improbable as the lottery. It seems to me that 38-40 is not out of the question. But then, unfortunately, neither is 25. us$ is toast as is GBP and Euro the 3 ugly sisters weather thai baht weakens or not is purely a function of how competent or incompetent thai government is and weather they also engage QE printing money like in the west. It matters not dear boy most fiat currencies are going down toilet and even if you get your dream of 40 baht to US $ its only going to happen if Thailand prints money as fast or faster than USA and rest and if they do inflation will hit hard. and so when the us gov prints there will be no inflation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 except that cutting bonds 50% means CDS will be engaged and then the shit storm will create a recession. the euro zone needs at least a trillion to save itself. whether CDS pay-outs apply is not yet clear. i agree with you but Frau Bundeskanzlerin Merkel, Monsieur le Président Sarkozy, a bunch of other top €U politicians and last not least Kύριος Georgios Papandreou beg to differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 here is a link. http://mindonmoney.w...ally-that-good/ If you want to get what is free at 10:30am at 9am instead, before the market opens, the price … $55,000 annually. Needless to say at this point I was speechless. I didn’t ask for a free trial. = bull! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 there has been a lot of tlak about how much money is actually going to be needed, the difference seems to be about 1/2 trillion euros. It all sounds positive, get the Chinese in on the deal ( they have loads of cash) and the markets certainly like it yesterday and today as well. Now lets see what happens at the G20 meeting coming up in about a weeks time, the dates I have seen is that banks have to have their figures sorted out by 25/12/2011. Everything else has to be agreed and set up by june 2012. All sounds good so far, but have you heard any of the details as to how this is all going to work and where the money is coming from, looks like a lot of smoke and mirrors to me. No one wants to give the Greeks the money! Would you? They live a relaxed life style while other work their socks off and when they are told things have gone wrong we have to cut back what do they say? Ok so long as its not applying to me. The rest of the Med looks on and hopes, the northern members of the club have short arms and deep pockets and who can blame them. I would just eject them and any of the others who are not interested insorting out their own back yards, it might be costly for a while but at least what would be left would be solid. One the other hand what price Euro Zone solidarity, very expensive options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the markets have also notices there not much detail coming forth and heading down with regard to the Euro crisis will the better US retail figures help out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 (edited) how is that midget in france going to give an opinion on private cds contracts between two private entities? is he a lawyer? a judge? there is no jurisdiction or legal precedent. his prediction is totally meaningless. there are 2 real solutions massive default or money creation (inflationary default) everything is kick the can BS Edited October 28, 2011 by farang000999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 (edited) No one wants to give the Greeks the money! Would you? Looks like a non-starter as will Greece accept it? Senior EU officials were left admitting that there was no agreement on how the deal would translate into a reduction in the Greek debt.Greek opposition parties to the Left and Right united to condemn the eurozone deal amid mounting social conflict. Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader, said: “We are not closer to the solution but are faced with nine years of collapse and poverty.” Dimitris Papadimoulis, a Left-wing MP, said new EU powers in the agreement to impose austerity measures on Greece had a conflict of interest. “Those who monitor us do not have our interests in mind,” he said. “Their priority is that we pay back our loans.” http://www.telegraph...ebt-crisis.html Edited October 29, 2011 by flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No one wants to give the Greeks the money! Would you? Looks like a non-starter as will Greece accept it? Senior EU officials were left admitting that there was no agreement on how the deal would translate into a reduction in the Greek debt.Greek opposition parties to the Left and Right united to condemn the eurozone deal amid mounting social conflict. Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader, said: “We are not closer to the solution but are faced with nine years of collapse and poverty.” Dimitris Papadimoulis, a Left-wing MP, said new EU powers in the agreement to impose austerity measures on Greece had a conflict of interest. “Those who monitor us do not have our interests in mind,” he said. “Their priority is that we pay back our loans.” http://www.telegraph...ebt-crisis.html Spot on, pay back the money you have been borrowing! If the boot was on the other foot springs to mind. The Greeks have been living above their means for a long time now sort it out, its going to be painful, take the pain you enjoyed the gain, did they not notice something was wrong? If was a personal household budget the person woudl have to deal with it, but as its the government the people are saying nothing to do with me, well it is its your government, now deal with it as if were your own personal budget. No new tv, car, furniture, cut back on the luxuries, give up fags etc that what you would have to do. Demonstrating on the streets does not change the situation. This problem will not be solved till the Greek people understand that they have a prolonged period of austerity coming there way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 (edited) So, now the jitters have set into the finacial markets, not much detail in the Euro Zone plans, 2 days of huge declines in the markets and what do the Greeks do? Hold a referendum on the austerity measures, a bit like turkeys voting for christmas, they are not going to vote for it. They are expecting the rest of the euro to foot the bill. It was a political decision to accept them into the zone not a financial one. Now the bird has come home to roost bigtime, its a straight choice bale them out for kick them out of the Euro. No one wants to pay for those that will not mend their ways so does anyone have the bottle to suggest giving them the heave ho? Edited November 1, 2011 by nong38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludditeman Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 The dollar/Euro/Pound/Baht exchange rates look much the same now as they were two years ago. Nobody seems to give a dam_n about what Greece is doing IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 The dollar/Euro/Pound/Baht exchange rates look much the same now as they were two years ago. Nobody seems to give a dam_n about what Greece is doing IMHO. the markets "give quite some dàmn"! http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waza Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 (edited) MF Global appears to be the first major U.S. casualty of Europe's debt crisis, although last week it sought to reassure investors that the investment in European sovereign debt was prudent. Read more: Corzine's MF Global Holdings Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy The contagion spreads World oil prices extended losses today amid market volatility after a US brokerage firm filed for bankruptcy and Greece called for a referendum on its latest bail-out deal. Edited November 1, 2011 by waza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 (edited) The referendum should be straight choice for the Greeks, support the austerity measures or leave the Euro. They are likely to be insolvent in the very near future, probably while they think about how to word the referendum to cause more misty mayhem or they are shown the door by the other members. When will someone in the Euro realize this no way to run a cuurency! Edited November 1, 2011 by nong38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaimate Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 To be blunt ,no matter what the Greeks do ,the days of plenty are over ,live with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 To be blunt ,no matter what the Greeks do ,the days of plenty are over ,live with it. Who do you think should live with it? The Greeks or everybody else? The system is going to have to make changes, some tough choices ahead but is anyone going to be strong enough to do it on their watch. I would love to be at the G20 meeting when the Euro members ask the Greek PM why he did not mention the referendum last week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houseinbkk Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 To be blunt ,no matter what the Greeks do ,the days of plenty are over ,live with it. But thats the problem European governments are still spending like there is no tomorrow, and borrowing money that future generations can never pay back. The days of plenty are still well and truly here for Luton Council who now have money to prop up the property ponzi scheme by paying the deposits of young parasites. (many councils are upto the same scam) http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=171243&st=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houseinbkk Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 To be blunt ,no matter what the Greeks do ,the days of plenty are over ,live with it. Who do you think should live with it? The Greeks or everybody else? The system is going to have to make changes, some tough choices ahead but is anyone going to be strong enough to do it on their watch. I would love to be at the G20 meeting when the Euro members ask the Greek PM why he did not mention the referendum last week!!! Despite being a pro 4th Reich EU piece of scum this guy could end up being the saviour of Greece should the proles vote to leave the EUSSR. Should the Greeks vote out and and return to the drachma, there will be many an investor waiting in the wings to pour his money into a nation thatll be free of EUSSR taxation, bureaucracy and ludicrous business stifling laws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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