Abhisit Fears Huge Public Debt By 2013

[Buchholz]

November Consumer Confidence Index Lowest in 10 Years

The overall index was at 61, the lowest in 122 months, since September 2001.

The index for future employment opportunities was recorded at 62.5, the lowest in 119 months, since January 2002.

The index for future earnings came in at 89.5, the lowest in 28 months

Impressive performance of the Yingluck administration.

These figures can hardly be surprising considering the flooding disaster that the country has experienced and therefore are hardly attributable to the present administration, given its time in office. You can argue (perhaps with some justification) that they might have done better in dealing with the floods but you cannot argue that a solution existed that would have saved the country from the devastation that was caused; had such a solution been available would it not have screamed from the rooftops by he Democrats?

I agree they are not surprising given the context of the inept PM and her Dubai-assigned Cabinet whose response to the flood has been deplorable.

The number figures for November rest solely on the administration that was in control for the entirety of the month.

.

[Skywalker69]

When you look around you and consider the joke welfare system, it's difficult to believe that Thailand is on the edge of a public debt problem. Where did the money go? Maybe the west is mired in debt but it at least has a lot to show for it. In order for the Thai economy to prosper there needs to be significant domestic investment, of the sort that can only be provided by the Government. It's not a case of avoiding debt, so much as will the money get spent wisely: I doubt it.

Thailand doesn't have a public debt problem ... yet.

But we can se it on the horizon.

[Buchholz]

November Consumer Confidence Index Lowest in 10 Years

The overall index was at 61, the lowest in 122 months, since September 2001.

The index for future employment opportunities was recorded at 62.5, the lowest in 119 months, since January 2002.

The index for future earnings came in at 89.5, the lowest in 28 months

Impressive performance of the Yingluck administration.

More of the same rosy news....

It was announced today that the public debt rose in January and now totaled 4.36 Trillion Baht, or 41.06% GDP.

.

Edited April 10, 2012 by Buchholz

[hellodolly]

Why didn't he do something about the perceived problem when he was in power. This he should have been working on with the Governor of Bangkok. Abhisit is playing ducks and drakes to deflect from the responsibility as a leader he had. Bangkok and surrounding areas are the manufacturing hub of Thailand and hence not need, but demand the leader of the country prepares for a disaster like this. Its very hard to put a plan in place at the height of a major catastrophe when you have done little about it.

Abhisit and the Governor of Bangkok have a lot to answer for.

Doesn't anyone of these reporters analysis the problem or the comment and then investigate why something may be being said. And it doesn't help when there are so many gullible people out there that cannot think past the last 5 minutes.

The "perceived problem" is that the current government are planning to spend more money than they have, and a lot of that will be spent on handouts and schemes that will be rife with corruption. They are also expecting revenue based on incorrect assumptions - growth this year of 3.5-4% when the BOT have said 2.6% or less, and next year of 4.5-5.5% which given the damage of the floods and the global economy is unlikely to get that high.

What does the Governor of Bangkok have to do with any of this? It's a national issue.

And what does Abhisit have to answer for? He managed to get Thailand through the GFC leaving the country in a very healthy position.

Abhisit is the most acceptable politician in Thailand from a western point of view but he is leader of a party that will never be able to win the kind of majority that the present government has. If he really wishes for Thailand to become an open democracy that is representative of all of the people, he needs to be seen as not from a party which can never be in government because the people consider it to be opposed to their interests and aspirations and show the electorate (however uneducated, naive and venal the posters here think of them) that there is another way.

As things stand, there is an inevitability that in elections the party associated with Thaksin will win most seats (whether as a result of ignorance, vote-buying, intimidation or whatever is irrelevant) and the Democrats will be a poor second.

Thailand is an emerging democracy with the historical tradition of accepting that corruption will be the norm in business and in dealings with bureaucracy; changing this acceptance may seem the first step to a bettter society but which political party in Thailand is ready to challenge the age-old tradition? Abhisit might want to, but would his party support that? And he would also need to be in power - an unlikely scenario.Nor does he seem likely to found a new party dedicated to egalitarianism and open government

Personally I do not believe that bringing Thaksin back will make the country any worse - he is not in any position of power in the government and has charges hanging over his head that can be activated at any time if he were to step out of line..

What Thaksin has done is awaken a sleeping giant in the Red movement and it is my opinion that therein lies the threat to powers that have always regarded the kingdom as theirs to do with what they will. I believe that within that disparate grouping there are people with a completely different agenda from Thaksin's. Which of those groupings wins the internal struggle for power will be the decider on Thailand's future.

Whatever befalls I will be here with my Thai family, perhaps shaking my head but accepting that the will of the Thai people if it is their decision (and not imposed by an external force) must be paramount

They have certainly wakened a sleeping giant, by promising the many thousands working in an uneconomic industry that their income will be subsidised as well as various other tax-expensive populist promises. To hold onto government, the vote-buying bribes will have to increased each election and once reserves are spent a spiral of increasing debt starts - quite soon in fact.

The external force that looms may not be that which you intended to imply. When the economic fool's paradise collapses, IMF and other external agencies will be needed, and you can bet a tresticle that the rice subsidies will be the first thing to go.

If the present party in power keeps up with it's high cost promises it will find itself in financial crises like Greece. All ready they have had to dump a large part of their debt on the banking industry.

And they have nothing to show for their effort other than words. Also some pictures of a nice looking Lady.

[Thai at Heart]

41% versus 150% for thai and greek government debt. You can argue the merits of policies but comparing greece and thailand is pure scare mongering

[billd766]

41% versus 150% for thai and greek government debt. You can argue the merits of policies but comparing greece and thailand is pure scare mongering

Just how long did it take for the Greeks to amass that amount of debt?

Remember this government has only been in charge fo 9 months and the accounts for the year have not come in yet.

[pauljones]

Why didn't he do something about the perceived problem when he was in power. This he should have been working on with the Governor of Bangkok. Abhisit is playing ducks and drakes to deflect from the responsibility as a leader he had. Bangkok and surrounding areas are the manufacturing hub of Thailand and hence not need, but demand the leader of the country prepares for a disaster like this. Its very hard to put a plan in place at the height of a major catastrophe when you have done little about it.

Abhisit and the Governor of Bangkok have a lot to answer for.

Doesn't anyone of these reporters analysis the problem or the comment and then investigate why something may be being said. And it doesn't help when there are so many gullible people out there that cannot think past the last 5 minutes.

When Thaksin took office, there was huge public debt. In 3 years time he was paying off the IMF loan early & producing budget surpluses, no?

Abhasit spent the country broke with those huge military favors/paybacks, no? He was a 'spokesman' PM that could never get elected.

As far as thugs go, I'll choose a crooked/successful business man to run things rather than an Army backed rich kid.

Look at the numbers.

[Buchholz]

Abhasit spent the country broke with those huge military favors/paybacks, no?

No, he didn't.

2010 ASEAN countries military expenditure as a percent of GDP

?.? (unreported) Myanmar

4.1 Singapore

3.9 Brunei

2.4 Vietnam

2.0 Malaysia

1.5 Thailand

1.1 Cambodia

1.0 Indonesia

0.8 Philippines

0.4 Laos

ASEAN average (not counting unreported Myanmar) = 1.9

On a world scale of military expenditure as a percent of GDP, Thailand ranks # 89.

Actually when putting in the updated figures for 2011, Thailand has dropped several places in comparison to their neighbors and is now even further below the average expenditures than they were before:

2011 ASEAN countries military expenditure as a percent of GDP

4.9 Singapore

4.5 Brunei

3.0 Cambodia

3.0 Indonesia

2.5 Vietnam

2.1 Burma

2.0 Malaysia

1.8 Thailand

0.9 Philippines

0.5 Laos

ASEAN average = 2.5

On a world scale of military expenditure as a percent of GDP, Thailand ranks # 85.

http://en.wikipedia....ry_expenditures

Look at the numbers.

Yes, let's look at the numbers above.

.

[whybother]

When Thaksin took office, there was huge public debt. In 3 years time he was paying off the IMF loan early & producing budget surpluses, no?

Abhasit spent the country broke with those huge military favors/paybacks, no? He was a 'spokesman' PM that could never get elected.

As far as thugs go, I'll choose a crooked/successful business man to run things rather than an Army backed rich kid.

Look at the numbers.

It's amazing what you can do in a booming world economy. It also helps when all you're doing is transferring debt from one place to another.

[metisdead]

An off topic post has been removed.

[bigbamboo]

A tale of two subsidy policy failures:

The affect to the national treasury have been almost immediate and fiscally catastrophic. You'd almost think it was planned that way. I'd love to have seen whatever futures contracts PTP cronies were holding as they developed these subsidy / non-subsidy policies.

Go oil, go oil. We are again in the beautiful $100 per bbl territory and life is great.

Natural gas is still selling at a steep discount of about $20 (bbl oil equivalent). Basically 5 times cheaper than oil per Joule or BTU. Well, life it not perfect.

TIT

[pauljones]

When Thaksin took office, there was huge public debt. In 3 years time he was paying off the IMF loan early & producing budget surpluses, no?

Abhasit spent the country broke with those huge military favors/paybacks, no? He was a 'spokesman' PM that could never get elected.

As far as thugs go, I'll choose a crooked/successful business man to run things rather than an Army backed rich kid.

Look at the numbers.

It's amazing what you can do in a booming world economy. It also helps when all you're doing is transferring debt from one place to another.

I guess you could check out some of the banned reading material to find out why Thaksin was really ousted.

Australian University-New Mandala site, Paul Handley, Andrew Walker, Wikileaks, Bangkok Pundit, etc.

There is allot of bad information in the local news, mostly by omission. By law, the local papers/news can't discuss the root of the problems with Thai politics.

You really don't trust the Thai Army and local press, do you?

[hyperdimension]

I guess you could check out some of the banned reading material to find out why Thaksin was really ousted.

Australian University-New Mandala site, Paul Handley, Andrew Walker, Wikileaks, Bangkok Pundit, etc.

There is allot of bad information in the local news, mostly by omission. By law, the local papers/news can't discuss the root of the problems with Thai politics.

Despite the scheming that has gone on amongst Thaksin's opponents, he and his clan are still a worse alternative for this country. There needs to be a better alternative to both the old establsihment and the Shinawatra clan.

But the thread topic is about the huge debt that will come about due to Pheu Thai's ill-conceived populist policies.

[geriatrickid]

Perhaps PTP should cancel the reduction in tax for their large-company elite backers, one of the first things to be rushed through, while they were still wondering how to spin their reneging on the immediate universal 300B/day minimum-wage ? Or perhaps not.

Never mind, the national finances are in good condition, credit to the previous administration and its widely-respected FM.

Are you serious? I consider the former finance minister reckless and irresponsible for his multi billion baht stimulus spending that lacked oversight and controls. Do you have any idea where that money came from?

[geriatrickid]

I guess you could check out some of the banned reading material to find out why Thaksin was really ousted.

Australian University-New Mandala site, Paul Handley, Andrew Walker, Wikileaks, Bangkok Pundit, etc.

There is allot of bad information in the local news, mostly by omission. By law, the local papers/news can't discuss the root of the problems with Thai politics.

Despite the scheming that has gone on amongst Thaksin's opponents, he and his clan are still a worse alternative for this country. There needs to be a better alternative to both the old establsihment and the Shinawatra clan.

But the thread topic is about the huge debt that will come about due to Pheu Thai's ill-conceived populist policies.

Please do the math. Add up the total cost vs. the Abhisit administration spending. Are you even aware that the spending commitments made by Korn & co. carried on into the new administration because they were locked in?

[geriatrickid]

When Thaksin took office, there was huge public debt. In 3 years time he was paying off the IMF loan early & producing budget surpluses, no?

Abhasit spent the country broke with those huge military favors/paybacks, no? He was a 'spokesman' PM that could never get elected.

As far as thugs go, I'll choose a crooked/successful business man to run things rather than an Army backed rich kid.

Look at the numbers.

It's amazing what you can do in a booming world economy. It also helps when all you're doing is transferring debt from one place to another.

Please explain where Abhisit and Korn came up with the money to fund their magical "stimulus" spending.

[whybother]

When Thaksin took office, there was huge public debt. In 3 years time he was paying off the IMF loan early & producing budget surpluses, no?

Abhasit spent the country broke with those huge military favors/paybacks, no? He was a 'spokesman' PM that could never get elected.

As far as thugs go, I'll choose a crooked/successful business man to run things rather than an Army backed rich kid.

Look at the numbers.

It's amazing what you can do in a booming world economy. It also helps when all you're doing is transferring debt from one place to another.

Please explain where Abhisit and Korn came up with the money to fund their magical "stimulus" spending.

What does that have to do with Thaksin and a booming world economy?

[waza]

All it will take is 1 year for the PTP to turn a tiger economy into a sick Kwai one and a cabinet of millionaires into a cabinet of multibillionaires

[Moruya]

When Thaksin took office, there was huge public debt. In 3 years time he was paying off the IMF loan early & producing budget surpluses, no?

Abhasit spent the country broke with those huge military favors/paybacks, no? He was a 'spokesman' PM that could never get elected.

As far as thugs go, I'll choose a crooked/successful business man to run things rather than an Army backed rich kid.

Look at the numbers.

It's amazing what you can do in a booming world economy. It also helps when all you're doing is transferring debt from one place to another.

Please explain where Abhisit and Korn came up with the money to fund their magical "stimulus" spending.

The economy that the PTP inherited was in good shape.

I think most people understand that if all your policies spend, spend, spend you will run out of money and eventually have a huge debt.