Israel and Palestine agree to cease fire after rocket attacks, airstrikes

[Scott]

An off-topic post has been removed.

If you don't want to be quoted, then don't post.

Posters are under no obligation to answer other posters.

[Pakboong]

Several sources to include both Israeli news papers report that Hamas had nothing to do with the 200 rockets. I find that hard to believe also. It is a strange turn to say the least. I have no reason not to believe it otherwise.

"There's no doubt that one reason Islamic Jihad is continuing its rocket fire on southern Israel is its glaring lack of success. After firing more than 200 rockets at the Negev, they still haven't killed any Israelis."

http://www.haaretz.c...israel-1.418075

You will have to pardon me if I don't take your word over theirs.

Not a case of taking someone words over another, we're talking about two different things here.

The Hamas wasn't doing the shooting this time.

The Hamas is in control in Gaza and therefore being held responsible as well.

How do you think the IDF knew that in this particular case, it was not Hamas doing the shooting? That certainly appears strange to me. A 200 rocket attack conducted by a terrorist group that seldom if ever, fires rockets from Gaza. Again, the rockets were not lethal. What would the point be of Hamas letting another terrorist group launch from their turf knowing the Israeli response would be harsh and again, no real damage was done to the Israelis.

200 of either Grads or Qassams take up a lot of space and would need a lot of storage, not to mention a large number of handlers and launch sites. Isn't it a bit odd that suddenly, a new group gets into the fray and both Israel and Hamas know who it was. Israel even claims to have attacked the launchers. They would have had to know where exactly the launches originated in order to attack the launch sites. Days of vapor trails from the launch sites would be pretty easy targets. What was Hamas doing, hanging out at the malls until all was over? Don't you find any of that particular story odd? I find it very odd.

Somebody on the ground conducted a body count and identification of who were militants and who were collateral damage. Who exactly would have that job? Perhaps Hamas?

Israel is claiming a 90% success rate on their missle shield. Wouldn't it be considered time well spent improving that rate to 100%. Generally speaking, if 90% is achievable, it is likely that 100% is also achievable. 90% is pretty good and will take care of most any missiles launched from pretty much any where. It makes sense that if Iran were to develop a nuclear tipped missile and launched it at Israel; today it would only have a one in 9 chance of getting past the shield. Not to mention that Iran would be immediately vaporized by a nuclear retaliation.

None of it makes sense to me.

[Colin Yai]

Several sources to include both Israeli news papers report that Hamas had nothing to do with the 200 rockets. I find that hard to believe also. It is a strange turn to say the least. I have no reason not to believe it otherwise.

"There's no doubt that one reason Islamic Jihad is continuing its rocket fire on southern Israel is its glaring lack of success. After firing more than 200 rockets at the Negev, they still haven't killed any Israelis."

http://www.haaretz.c...israel-1.418075

You will have to pardon me if I don't take your word over theirs.

Not a case of taking someone words over another, we're talking about two different things here.

The Hamas wasn't doing the shooting this time.

The Hamas is in control in Gaza and therefore being held responsible as well.

How do you think the IDF knew that in this particular case, it was not Hamas doing the shooting? That certainly appears strange to me. A 200 rocket attack conducted by a terrorist group that seldom if ever, fires rockets from Gaza. Again, the rockets were not lethal. What would the point be of Hamas letting another terrorist group launch from their turf knowing the Israeli response would be harsh and again, no real damage was done to the Israelis.

200 of either Grads or Qassams take up a lot of space and would need a lot of storage, not to mention a large number of handlers and launch sites. Isn't it a bit odd that suddenly, a new group gets into the fray and both Israel and Hamas know who it was. Israel even claims to have attacked the launchers. They would have had to know where exactly the launches originated in order to attack the launch sites. Days of vapor trails from the launch sites would be pretty easy targets. What was Hamas doing, hanging out at the malls until all was over? Don't you find any of that particular story odd? I find it very odd.

Somebody on the ground conducted a body count and identification of who were militants and who were collateral damage. Who exactly would have that job? Perhaps Hamas?

Israel is claiming a 90% success rate on their missle shield. Wouldn't it be considered time well spent improving that rate to 100%. Generally speaking, if 90% is achievable, it is likely that 100% is also achievable. 90% is pretty good and will take care of most any missiles launched from pretty much any where. It makes sense that if Iran were to develop a nuclear tipped missile and launched it at Israel; today it would only have a one in 9 chance of getting past the shield. Not to mention that Iran would be immediately vaporized by a nuclear retaliation.

None of it makes sense to me.

Every time Rockets rain from Hamas held territory into Israel a terrible price is paid in return ,its a bit like a boxer who has been Knocked out by the same opponent in the first round for his last 20 fights screaming for a rematch, which makes about as much sense Edited March 15, 2012 by Colin Yai

[maidu]

Colin, can I ask you for an honest opinion.

If the UN bombed the crap out of Gaza and there was no more Hamas. No rockets fired into Israel. No more hate speach etc etc. The Palestinians just wanted to be left alone and go about their business on the land they now occupy.

Do you think Israel would forever abide by that or do you think in that in 10 or 20 years time Israel will need more land due to increasing population or whatever, and begin further settlements.

Of course there may be unthought of issues but generally speaking do you think the fighting would forever end?

One thing a lot of Egyptians and Israelis agree on is that having as little to do with Gaza is probably best. This goes way back before the Hamas.

Israel never conquered territories due to population constraints, and actually gave back quite a chunk (Sinai peninsula) in return for peace. This was this was over 30 years ago, and doesn't look like an Israeli land grab is on the cards.

If Israel took land the traditional way - by beating its enemies in wars, it could own a lot more territory than it now has. It could own Sanai and most, if not all, of Syria.

For those who are shaving hairs about who fired the rockets from Gaza: It's a moot point. If there's an authority there, then they're responsible for missiles fired from there. If the missiles are not their doing, then they should find and punish the punks firing the missiles. If I'm the head of a household, and one of my young sons is causing serious trouble in town, it's at least partly my responsibility to discipline the kid.

[Colin Yai]

Colin, can I ask you for an honest opinion.

If the UN bombed the crap out of Gaza and there was no more Hamas. No rockets fired into Israel. No more hate speach etc etc. The Palestinians just wanted to be left alone and go about their business on the land they now occupy.

Do you think Israel would forever abide by that or do you think in that in 10 or 20 years time Israel will need more land due to increasing population or whatever, and begin further settlements.

Of course there may be unthought of issues but generally speaking do you think the fighting would forever end?

One thing a lot of Egyptians and Israelis agree on is that having as little to do with Gaza is probably best. This goes way back before the Hamas.

Israel never conquered territories due to population constraints, and actually gave back quite a chunk (Sinai peninsula) in return for peace. This was this was over 30 years ago, and doesn't look like an Israeli land grab is on the cards.

If Israel took land the traditional way - by beating its enemies in wars, it could own a lot more territory than it now has. It could own Sanai and most, if not all, of Syria.

For those who are shaving hairs about who fired the rockets from Gaza: It's a moot point. If there's an authority there, then they're responsible for missiles fired from there. If the missiles are not their doing, then they should find and punish the punks firing the missiles. If I'm the head of a household, and one of my young sons is causing serious trouble in town, it's at least partly my responsibility to discipline the kid.

Hamas has been the elected Government in Gaza since June 2007 so therefore is fully responsible for the endless Rocket attacks into Israel, and if they are not responsible,then who is? Edited March 15, 2012 by Colin Yai

[Morch]

Several sources to include both Israeli news papers report that Hamas had nothing to do with the 200 rockets. I find that hard to believe also. It is a strange turn to say the least. I have no reason not to believe it otherwise.

"There's no doubt that one reason Islamic Jihad is continuing its rocket fire on southern Israel is its glaring lack of success. After firing more than 200 rockets at the Negev, they still haven't killed any Israelis."

http://www.haaretz.c...israel-1.418075

You will have to pardon me if I don't take your word over theirs.

Not a case of taking someone words over another, we're talking about two different things here.

The Hamas wasn't doing the shooting this time.

The Hamas is in control in Gaza and therefore being held responsible as well.

How do you think the IDF knew that in this particular case, it was not Hamas doing the shooting? That certainly appears strange to me. A 200 rocket attack conducted by a terrorist group that seldom if ever, fires rockets from Gaza. Again, the rockets were not lethal. What would the point be of Hamas letting another terrorist group launch from their turf knowing the Israeli response would be harsh and again, no real damage was done to the Israelis.

200 of either Grads or Qassams take up a lot of space and would need a lot of storage, not to mention a large number of handlers and launch sites. Isn't it a bit odd that suddenly, a new group gets into the fray and both Israel and Hamas know who it was. Israel even claims to have attacked the launchers. They would have had to know where exactly the launches originated in order to attack the launch sites. Days of vapor trails from the launch sites would be pretty easy targets. What was Hamas doing, hanging out at the malls until all was over? Don't you find any of that particular story odd? I find it very odd.

Somebody on the ground conducted a body count and identification of who were militants and who were collateral damage. Who exactly would have that job? Perhaps Hamas?

Israel is claiming a 90% success rate on their missle shield. Wouldn't it be considered time well spent improving that rate to 100%. Generally speaking, if 90% is achievable, it is likely that 100% is also achievable. 90% is pretty good and will take care of most any missiles launched from pretty much any where. It makes sense that if Iran were to develop a nuclear tipped missile and launched it at Israel; today it would only have a one in 9 chance of getting past the shield. Not to mention that Iran would be immediately vaporized by a nuclear retaliation.

None of it makes sense to me.

Israel got very good intelligence when it comes to the Palestinians. Anyway, in most cases, shooting parties rush to claim credit, as there's an ongoing competition over who is the badass vs. Israel.

This round wasn't much different.

Not sure why you claim that the Islamic Jihad "seldom if ever" fires rockets from Gaza. This is just not the case: they take pride in it, and even produce some of their own rockets.

The rockets being lethal or not got little to do with shooting them. They still work well as tools of terror, and they certainly disrupt life in Israel. At the same time (as mentioned above) firing them also

serves the internal struggle between different organizations. This is one reason why Hamas is not keen on putting a stop to it, not wanting to be seen as sissies, traitors etc.

Logistics: 200 rockets do not take up that much space, actually. In a city the size of Gaza and surrounding areas, this by itself is not a problem (there is also quite an extensive array of tunnels and underground storage places). Many handlers? Nope. Doesn't take a whole platoon to fire those. Launch sites? They don't really need a special launch site (granted that a proper one would be better from their point of view).

Israel does attack the launchers, with varying degrees of success, though seem to get better at it. Locating the launch area is not very complicated nowadays, more a question of getting there before shooters do a runner. It all being quite close up and military alert, reaction times are short.

As for body counts vs. collateral damage - each Palestinian organization is quick to come up with figures, then there some NGOs who do the rounds, local media covers as well. Another way to check this is by following actual numbers of funerals etc. (not practiced much by media). All considered, there's a pretty accurate tally, though of course playing around with different figures is practiced by both sides (at least to some extent).

Intercept percents were a little lower than that, and they are relevant only to areas protected by those new systems. No one claimes that it can be brought to a 100%. Still pretty scary to live under those conditions, and not something that should be tolerated.

The relevance to Iran, other than being OT, is questionable - those systems are designed to intercept short range rockets, not ballistic missiles.

It seems you find things odd based on a bunch of wrong assumptions:

- This is not a new group.

- they aren't being secretive about it.

- Israel got good intel on Palestinians.

- Firing those rockets isn't, well....rocket science.

- Locating launch sites is not magic, reaction time of Israeli forces is very short.

[Pakboong]

Several sources to include both Israeli news papers report that Hamas had nothing to do with the 200 rockets. I find that hard to believe also. It is a strange turn to say the least. I have no reason not to believe it otherwise.

"There's no doubt that one reason Islamic Jihad is continuing its rocket fire on southern Israel is its glaring lack of success. After firing more than 200 rockets at the Negev, they still haven't killed any Israelis."

http://www.haaretz.c...israel-1.418075

You will have to pardon me if I don't take your word over theirs.

Not a case of taking someone words over another, we're talking about two different things here.

The Hamas wasn't doing the shooting this time.

The Hamas is in control in Gaza and therefore being held responsible as well.

How do you think the IDF knew that in this particular case, it was not Hamas doing the shooting? That certainly appears strange to me. A 200 rocket attack conducted by a terrorist group that seldom if ever, fires rockets from Gaza. Again, the rockets were not lethal. What would the point be of Hamas letting another terrorist group launch from their turf knowing the Israeli response would be harsh and again, no real damage was done to the Israelis.

200 of either Grads or Qassams take up a lot of space and would need a lot of storage, not to mention a large number of handlers and launch sites. Isn't it a bit odd that suddenly, a new group gets into the fray and both Israel and Hamas know who it was. Israel even claims to have attacked the launchers. They would have had to know where exactly the launches originated in order to attack the launch sites. Days of vapor trails from the launch sites would be pretty easy targets. What was Hamas doing, hanging out at the malls until all was over? Don't you find any of that particular story odd? I find it very odd.

Somebody on the ground conducted a body count and identification of who were militants and who were collateral damage. Who exactly would have that job? Perhaps Hamas?

Israel is claiming a 90% success rate on their missle shield. Wouldn't it be considered time well spent improving that rate to 100%. Generally speaking, if 90% is achievable, it is likely that 100% is also achievable. 90% is pretty good and will take care of most any missiles launched from pretty much any where. It makes sense that if Iran were to develop a nuclear tipped missile and launched it at Israel; today it would only have a one in 9 chance of getting past the shield. Not to mention that Iran would be immediately vaporized by a nuclear retaliation.

None of it makes sense to me.

Israel got very good intelligence when it comes to the Palestinians. Anyway, in most cases, shooting parties rush to claim credit, as there's an ongoing competition over who is the badass vs. Israel.

This round wasn't much different.

Not sure why you claim that the Islamic Jihad "seldom if ever" fires rockets from Gaza. This is just not the case: they take pride in it, and even produce some of their own rockets.

The rockets being lethal or not got little to do with shooting them. They still work well as tools of terror, and they certainly disrupt life in Israel. At the same time (as mentioned above) firing them also

serves the internal struggle between different organizations. This is one reason why Hamas is not keen on putting a stop to it, not wanting to be seen as sissies, traitors etc.

Logistics: 200 rockets do not take up that much space, actually. In a city the size of Gaza and surrounding areas, this by itself is not a problem (there is also quite an extensive array of tunnels and underground storage places). Many handlers? Nope. Doesn't take a whole platoon to fire those. Launch sites? They don't really need a special launch site (granted that a proper one would be better from their point of view).

Israel does attack the launchers, with varying degrees of success, though seem to get better at it. Locating the launch area is not very complicated nowadays, more a question of getting there before shooters do a runner. It all being quite close up and military alert, reaction times are short.

As for body counts vs. collateral damage - each Palestinian organization is quick to come up with figures, then there some NGOs who do the rounds, local media covers as well. Another way to check this is by following actual numbers of funerals etc. (not practiced much by media). All considered, there's a pretty accurate tally, though of course playing around with different figures is practiced by both sides (at least to some extent).

Intercept percents were a little lower than that, and they are relevant only to areas protected by those new systems. No one claimes that it can be brought to a 100%. Still pretty scary to live under those conditions, and not something that should be tolerated.

The relevance to Iran, other than being OT, is questionable - those systems are designed to intercept short range rockets, not ballistic missiles.

It seems you find things odd based on a bunch of wrong assumptions:

- This is not a new group.

- they aren't being secretive about it.

- Israel got good intel on Palestinians.

- Firing those rockets isn't, well....rocket science.

- Locating launch sites is not magic, reaction time of Israeli forces is very short.

Perhaps I am way to cynical. I do not follow how or why Hamas would sit back and allow Islamic Jihad or anyone else to fire 200 rockets into the Israeli desert knowing that they would get what turned out to be 37 retaliation attacks by Israeli jets which kill 25 people and wound another 90. Like you say, Israel holds Hamas responsible. I get that. It is part of every IDF press release on these rocket attacks. That doesn't make sense to me and it is not about bad assumptions on my part. Hamas can't be that stupid. In this silly scenario, there is nothing in it for Hamas but pain and by any standard, that does not hold up for me.

Problem at least for me is, the other 7 billion people on our planet do not necessarily hold Hamas responsible. I happen to be from the 7 billion group that doesn't care who Israel holds responsible it simply needs to make sense in some meaningful way and cui bono matters in all such cases. This in no way benefits the group held accountable and in this case, that group stood by, according to several Israeli reports, and did nothing. Seems that everybody knew what was going on and Hamas stood by and let Israeli jets kill their people. If that makes sense to you, what can I say but good for you?

The IDF published in JP that they expected 100 plus rockets in retaliation for the mission to kill a couple of terrorist leaders. Did they expect a retaliation from Hamas or from Islamic Jihad. Or was the game arranged in such a way that Hamas would sit this one out and let Islamic Jihad have the fun? The initial reports on this indicate Hamas was not responsible for this attack. The report is in both the JP and Haaretz. I have posted 3 references, all from Israeli news papers, that Hamas was not involved. I get the IDF claim that Hamas is responsible for everything happening in Gaza; not necessary to repeat it.

PS, a grad or qassam will typically arrive at a launch site in the back of a van. The van will not hold much of this stuff and it is usually accompanied by 3 terrorists. If you need video of an actual launch taken by an Israeli drone, I can probably dig that up for you. It is a fairly large logistical effort to launch 200 of these.

[Steely Dan]

@Pakboong

Hamas may want to avoid a conflict with Shia backed militias, especially if they anticipate Hezbollah are going to get in on the act and furthermore Hamas from what I've read are already being leaned on by Egypt to stop operating from Gaza and hence may not at this point in time wish to alienate Iran leaving then struggling for new arms.

http://www.debka.com/article/21825/

Edited March 15, 2012 by Steely Dan

[Morch]

Perhaps I am way to cynical. I do not follow how or why Hamas would sit back and allow Islamic Jihad or anyone else to fire 200 rockets into the Israeli desert knowing that they would get what turned out to be 37 retaliation attacks by Israeli jets which kill 25 people and wound another 90. Like you say, Israel holds Hamas responsible. I get that. It is part of every IDF press release on these rocket attacks. That doesn't make sense to me and it is not about bad assumptions on my part. Hamas can't be that stupid. In this silly scenario, there is nothing in it for Hamas but pain and by any standard, that does not hold up for me.

Problem at least for me is, the other 7 billion people on our planet do not necessarily hold Hamas responsible. I happen to be from the 7 billion group that doesn't care who Israel holds responsible it simply needs to make sense in some meaningful way and cui bono matters in all such cases. This in no way benefits the group held accountable and in this case, that group stood by, according to several Israeli reports, and did nothing. Seems that everybody knew what was going on and Hamas stood by and let Israeli jets kill their people. If that makes sense to you, what can I say but good for you?

The IDF published in JP that they expected 100 plus rockets in retaliation for the mission to kill a couple of terrorist leaders. Did they expect a retaliation from Hamas or from Islamic Jihad. Or was the game arranged in such a way that Hamas would sit this one out and let Islamic Jihad have the fun? The initial reports on this indicate Hamas was not responsible for this attack. The report is in both the JP and Haaretz. I have posted 3 references, all from Israeli news papers, that Hamas was not involved. I get the IDF claim that Hamas is responsible for everything happening in Gaza; not necessary to repeat it.

PS, a grad or qassam will typically arrive at a launch site in the back of a van. The van will not hold much of this stuff and it is usually accompanied by 3 terrorists. If you need video of an actual launch taken by an Israeli drone, I can probably dig that up for you. It is a fairly large logistical effort to launch 200 of these.

Considering exactly the same things goes on in Lebanon for a long while, this isn't very original at all. Lebanese army hardly ever does anything to prevent attacks by Hezbollah, doesn't stop Lebanon from whining when Israel strikes back.

Hamas didn't intervene because due to some reasons:

1 - They can not afford to be seen as weak compared to the Islamic Jihad, or as collaborating with Israel. Especially not nowadays, when they are about to join hand with the Palestinian Authority, a move that will cost them some of the "tough guys" image.

2 - The Israeli attacks were vs. the Islamic Jihad. Hamas got little objection to the two hitting each other.

3 - Not in Hamas best interests to start an internal war just now. They are somewhat divided over the PA move.

4 - They were taken by surprise, and took them a while to figure how to go about this. They ain't no super masterminds, just politicians like everyone else. I don't think they could have perdicted how intense this round would be. We all make mistakes.

Israel did not say they hold the Hamas solely accountable , but both organisations. The meaning isn't that Hamas assisted or planned any of this, just that they are responsible by being in charge and not taking care of things. No one claimed they benefited much out of this.

I don't quite understand the "everyone seemed to know what was going on" bit - this isn't a new kind of event or something, all happened before more than once. As for killing "their" people - a little tricky, that. Hamas wouldn't exactly shed tears over Islamic Jihad supportes buying the farm. Kinda even "benefit" some as they get to blame Israel too, without getting hurt.

IDF for sure expected a reaction from the Islamic Jihad. As for a Hamas reaction, I don't think they could tell ahead what will happen. For one thing, Hamas got it's own internal issues now so control might be messed up a bit. Second, when fighting breaks out it doesn't always go as expected. easy enough for stuff to go down even without direct attack on Hamas.

If you're hinting at a possible arrangement between Israel and the Hamas - not as such, certainly not before the attack (can't imagine Israel would trust the Hamas that much). There might have been a message convayed later on, such as "don't get involved, don't get hurt", yes. I have no idea if that happened for real, though.

Grads etc - Shooting 200 of those within a short period of time and under current conditions is an undertaking, yes. You post dealt more with storage, handers and launch sites - and I replied to that.

Mind, the Islamic Jihad do claim to have multiple launchers, so might save them some effort :-).

[Ulysses G.]

Hamas can't be that stupid.

Look at their history. They ARE.

[Scott]

Morch, thanks for that very informative post.

[Colin Yai]

Hamas can't be that stupid.

Look at their history. They ARE.

Yeah UG, Stupid they may be ,but not that stupid cos as long as Hamas keeps the "pot boiling" against Israel and fireing a few rockets and the Israelis appearing heavy handed to the political left in the defense of their own citizens then untold "sympathy" millions will keep pouring in to their coffers , why not Google up "Hamas money Jihad" a virtual welter of info is there for all to see.

[Pakboong]

Perhaps I am way to cynical. I do not follow how or why Hamas would sit back and allow Islamic Jihad or anyone else to fire 200 rockets into the Israeli desert knowing that they would get what turned out to be 37 retaliation attacks by Israeli jets which kill 25 people and wound another 90. Like you say, Israel holds Hamas responsible. I get that. It is part of every IDF press release on these rocket attacks. That doesn't make sense to me and it is not about bad assumptions on my part. Hamas can't be that stupid. In this silly scenario, there is nothing in it for Hamas but pain and by any standard, that does not hold up for me.

Problem at least for me is, the other 7 billion people on our planet do not necessarily hold Hamas responsible. I happen to be from the 7 billion group that doesn't care who Israel holds responsible it simply needs to make sense in some meaningful way and cui bono matters in all such cases. This in no way benefits the group held accountable and in this case, that group stood by, according to several Israeli reports, and did nothing. Seems that everybody knew what was going on and Hamas stood by and let Israeli jets kill their people. If that makes sense to you, what can I say but good for you?

The IDF published in JP that they expected 100 plus rockets in retaliation for the mission to kill a couple of terrorist leaders. Did they expect a retaliation from Hamas or from Islamic Jihad. Or was the game arranged in such a way that Hamas would sit this one out and let Islamic Jihad have the fun? The initial reports on this indicate Hamas was not responsible for this attack. The report is in both the JP and Haaretz. I have posted 3 references, all from Israeli news papers, that Hamas was not involved. I get the IDF claim that Hamas is responsible for everything happening in Gaza; not necessary to repeat it.

PS, a grad or qassam will typically arrive at a launch site in the back of a van. The van will not hold much of this stuff and it is usually accompanied by 3 terrorists. If you need video of an actual launch taken by an Israeli drone, I can probably dig that up for you. It is a fairly large logistical effort to launch 200 of these.

Considering exactly the same things goes on in Lebanon for a long while, this isn't very original at all. Lebanese army hardly ever does anything to prevent attacks by Hezbollah, doesn't stop Lebanon from whining when Israel strikes back.

Hamas didn't intervene because due to some reasons:

1 - They can not afford to be seen as weak compared to the Islamic Jihad, or as collaborating with Israel. Especially not nowadays, when they are about to join hand with the Palestinian Authority, a move that will cost them some of the "tough guys" image.

2 - The Israeli attacks were vs. the Islamic Jihad. Hamas got little objection to the two hitting each other.

3 - Not in Hamas best interests to start an internal war just now. They are somewhat divided over the PA move.

4 - They were taken by surprise, and took them a while to figure how to go about this. They ain't no super masterminds, just politicians like everyone else. I don't think they could have perdicted how intense this round would be. We all make mistakes.

Israel did not say they hold the Hamas solely accountable , but both organisations. The meaning isn't that Hamas assisted or planned any of this, just that they are responsible by being in charge and not taking care of things. No one claimed they benefited much out of this.

I don't quite understand the "everyone seemed to know what was going on" bit - this isn't a new kind of event or something, all happened before more than once. As for killing "their" people - a little tricky, that. Hamas wouldn't exactly shed tears over Islamic Jihad supportes buying the farm. Kinda even "benefit" some as they get to blame Israel too, without getting hurt.

IDF for sure expected a reaction from the Islamic Jihad. As for a Hamas reaction, I don't think they could tell ahead what will happen. For one thing, Hamas got it's own internal issues now so control might be messed up a bit. Second, when fighting breaks out it doesn't always go as expected. easy enough for stuff to go down even without direct attack on Hamas.

If you're hinting at a possible arrangement between Israel and the Hamas - not as such, certainly not before the attack (can't imagine Israel would trust the Hamas that much). There might have been a message convayed later on, such as "don't get involved, don't get hurt", yes. I have no idea if that happened for real, though.

Grads etc - Shooting 200 of those within a short period of time and under current conditions is an undertaking, yes. You post dealt more with storage, handers and launch sites - and I replied to that.

Mind, the Islamic Jihad do claim to have multiple launchers, so might save them some effort :-).

Thanks for the time you took to reply. I know my twist on all of this can be quite tiring.

I keep getting hung up on a couple of points that keep jumping out at me. There are several but the two main points are:

-Hamas governs Gaza in a way that you would expect from the Keystone Cops. Their efforts are so feeble that the people have to know it. How could these people get elected to conduct a fire drill? All they have done is get thousands of Palestinians killed. The kill ratio is approximately 100-1 in favor of the Israelis.

-They have to be the most incompetent terrorists in history. I get the terror from "the unknown" but, it hasn't happened. Terrorists want to revenge their own dead, not a halloween type ghost scaring. Without dead, there is no serious explanation for the effort. There have been a few here that think Hamas and Iran do not want to start war. To me that is a bit rediculous but everybody is entitled to their opinion. These terrorists want to Martyr themselves to the point that they use their children as human shields. Hamas is pulling its punches to make sure they don't get knocked out to quickly or beaten up to badly. What about the Martyr argument that always comes into play when something Islamic does not otherwise make sense?

The facts of the matter are: Hamas is responsible for One Israeli death due to 627 rocket and mortar attacks in 2011. That could not make sense to the dumbest Palestinian. Hamas is elected by the people of Gaza and they have provided nothing but death. They are terrorist but the really do not act like terrorists. They act like they are playing out a script in a one act play.

This past weekend, 200 rockets were fired and nobody was killed except 25 Palestinans who don't seem to mind as long as they don't have to get killed in a real war.

Somebody posts here every day that Hamas are responsible for all this horrible terror but all the terror has actually fallen on Gaza, not Israel. (100-1) kill ratio. That is way too simple for my little pea brain. All of these people have signed up for a 100-1 kill ratio because they are stupid? Seriously, nobody is that stupid. Even Soi Dogs would not buy into that scenario. Iran is backing them with money and weapons?? Got to be kidding; are the Palestinians spending the money on baseball cards and only chewing the gum? Somebody on one of these threads is posting about Iranian proxies as I type. This is some fine proxy. Any mother would be proud.

Have you considered the idea that this Hamas arrangement could be staged? They certainly act as if it is staged.

Edited March 16, 2012 by Pakboong

[Colin Yai]

Another excellent thought provoking post Pakboong, you can certainly string the right words together !, maybe it would open a few doors for you if you Google up "Hamas money Jihad"

Edited March 16, 2012 by Colin Yai

[Pakboong]

Another excellent thought provoking post Pakboong, you can certainly string the right words together !, maybe it would open a few doors for you if you Google up "Hamas money Jihad"

Thanks Colin, I have pretty much read every piece of news ever printed on this subject.

[Pakboong]

@Pakboong

Hamas may want to avoid a conflict with Shia backed militias, especially if they anticipate Hezbollah are going to get in on the act and furthermore Hamas from what I've read are already being leaned on by Egypt to stop operating from Gaza and hence may not at this point in time wish to alienate Iran leaving then struggling for new arms.

http://www.debka.com/article/21825/

Thanks Steely, a point that is always made and I suspect a valid one to at least some degree.

I guess the problem I will always have with any of this is the experience working with Israelis back in the day. These guys were smarter than the rest of us and the way they would think would boggle your mind.

I tried to read the feeder reports off this link but they wanted me to sign up and I have way too much reading to do to be paying for it.

[Ulysses G.]

All of these people have signed up for a 100-1 kill ratio because they are stupid?

They have decisively lost every war with the Israelis since they started attacking them, but they keep on starting new ones. Maybe it is time to accept the obvious.

[Colin Yai]

All of these people have signed up for a 100-1 kill ratio because they are stupid?

They have decisively lost every war with the Israelis since they started attacking them, but they keep on starting new ones. Maybe it is time to accept the obvious.

Quite correct UG,Unfortunately for the normal guy living in Gaza the obvious will never come about, as the Hamas leaders are being bankrolled to the tune of tens of millions to fight the proxy war against Israel for those who's yellow streak down their backbone's are almost as big as their finance's .

[Colin Yai]

Another excellent thought provoking post Pakboong, you can certainly string the right words together !, maybe it would open a few doors for you if you Google up "Hamas money Jihad"

Thanks Colin, I have pretty much read every piece of news ever printed on this subject.

For sure Pakboong I acknowledge this simple fact, without a doubt I find both yourself and Morch's posts make me sit back and think somewhat! Edited March 16, 2012 by Colin Yai

[Scott]

Thank you Pakboong for your very informative post.

[Pakboong]

All of these people have signed up for a 100-1 kill ratio because they are stupid?

They have decisively lost every war with the Israelis since they started attacking them, but they keep on starting new ones. Maybe it is time to accept the obvious.

Quite correct UG,Unfortunately for the normal guy living in Gaza the obvious will never come about, as the Hamas leaders are being bankrolled to the tune of tens of millions to fight the proxy war against Israel for those who's yellow streak down their backbone's are almost as big as their finance's .

The point I am working up to is that Hamas conducts themselves more like an Israeli proxy than an Iranian proxy. What I have been writing about in other posts on this thread are the lead up to that conclusion.

To me, the important information is how Hamas would conduct intelligence operations within the Arab population on the Israeli side of the fence. These people are Arabs and have an ideological connection to Palestine, not Israel. Not that long ago they were strapping on vests with explosives and killing as many Israelis as they could, now they are cautious and don't want to start a real war?? But more importantly is that there is essentially no evidence that Israel is conducting counter intelligence among the people on the Israeli side of the fence. That is the Israeli forte but there is nothing coming out from any source about the Israelis having caught a spy on the Israeli side of the fence. Leads me to believe that the Israelis have reasons not to bother.

The Israelis conduct operations in this particular effort much as they would run an investment bank. Completely leveraged. Every war they have gotten themselves involved in was set up and leveraged to the hilt to minimize their risk. In this Hamas struggle, they have reduced their risk to .002. Can't get much more leveraged that that.

The irony of this point is, there will be pro-Israeli posters who can't help but holler "Nonsense" even though this is a very pro-Israeli view.

[maidu]

For thousands of years, up until the mid-20th century - when countries had problems, they would have wars. And the winner of the war would get the spoils. Am not saying that was a good pattern, but what we have now are little battles going on for decades - with no winners, because bigger players (US, USSR/Russia, Iran, etc) keep the big issues from being resolved in the old-fashioned way. Israel has won a string of recent wars, but has not taken significant territory or annihilated its enemies - which it could have done, in the older paradigm.

The other advantage of war is that it puts a damper on over-population by our one species. If there had not been wars (and disease), populations worldwide would be past the bursting point. Look how overpopulated India, China and Indonesia are, now that they haven't had major wars for a few generations. Same for most of Africa. Nobody admits to wanting war, except perhaps arms makers and dictators (and maybe military lifers), but it does serve some perverse purposes.

[Ulysses G.]

The point I am working up to is that Hamas conducts themselves more like an Israeli proxy than an Iranian proxy.

Perhaps so, but pretty much everything you post is some kind of a a conspiracy theory and suggesting that Israel is shooting rockets at its own citizens fits into that category very well. Some times - many times - things are just as they seem and Islamic radicals conducting themselves like the Three Stooges and shooting themselves in the foot is nothing new.

Edited March 17, 2012 by Ulysses G.

[Colin Yai]

The point I am working up to is that Hamas conducts themselves more like an Israeli proxy than an Iranian proxy.

Perhaps so, but pretty much everything you post is some kind of a a conspiracy theory and suggesting that Israel is shooting rockets at its own citizens fits into that category very well. Some times - many times - things are just as they seem and Islamic radicals conducting themselves like the Three Stooges and shooting themselves in the foot is nothing new.

Personally speaking I think we can safely dispel any thoughts of some sort of unholy alliance between the two,of course your description of Hamas shooting itself in the foot fits in with my thinking ,but as long as Hamas gets very well paid for doing so I'm afraid the trend will continue unabated,and any talk of a meaningful ceasefire, independently brokered or otherwise IMHO is a joke!.

[Scott]

*Snip*

The other advantage of war is that it puts a damper on over-population by our one species. If there had not been wars (and disease), populations worldwide would be past the bursting point.

This is a little off-topic, but war is not a very effective method of population control, actually it's probably counterproductive. I can't quote a source, but while in University, I took a course in demographics and one example given was that the population killed in World War II were replaced within 6 months of the end of the war. Wars tend to bring about poverty and poverty is associated with a high birth rate.

[Steely Dan]

All of these people have signed up for a 100-1 kill ratio because they are stupid?

They have decisively lost every war with the Israelis since they started attacking them, but they keep on starting new ones. Maybe it is time to accept the obvious.

Quite correct UG,Unfortunately for the normal guy living in Gaza the obvious will never come about, as the Hamas leaders are being bankrolled to the tune of tens of millions to fight the proxy war against Israel for those who's yellow streak down their backbone's are almost as big as their finance's .

The point I am working up to is that Hamas conducts themselves more like an Israeli proxy than an Iranian proxy. What I have been writing about in other posts on this thread are the lead up to that conclusion.

To me, the important information is how Hamas would conduct intelligence operations within the Arab population on the Israeli side of the fence. These people are Arabs and have an ideological connection to Palestine, not Israel. Not that long ago they were strapping on vests with explosives and killing as many Israelis as they could, now they are cautious and don't want to start a real war?? But more importantly is that there is essentially no evidence that Israel is conducting counter intelligence among the people on the Israeli side of the fence. That is the Israeli forte but there is nothing coming out from any source about the Israelis having caught a spy on the Israeli side of the fence. Leads me to believe that the Israelis have reasons not to bother.

The Israelis conduct operations in this particular effort much as they would run an investment bank. Completely leveraged. Every war they have gotten themselves involved in was set up and leveraged to the hilt to minimize their risk. In this Hamas struggle, they have reduced their risk to .002. Can't get much more leveraged that that.

The irony of this point is, there will be pro-Israeli posters who can't help but holler "Nonsense" even though this is a very pro-Israeli view.

Your pen and paper calculations have a habit of running on to conclusions almost as if there is a calculus style solution. I think matters are somewhat more wooly than that and require the human element to be considered. Firstly operation cast lead, we were first told, killed mainly civilians. Only much further down the line did Hamas admit that they lost over 700 fighters. Then we have the targeted assassination of Hamas leaders a while back, so Hamas are probably well aware of what might come their way if they step too far over the line.

There is also the fact that Iron Dome was a great success and just one hit in a classroom from a missile may have easily killed say 30, which would blow your mathematical calculations and their conclusions out of the water.

P.S Sadly from what I hear a Hamas leader who went to Cairo for talks unexpectedly flew on to Tehran, so I suspect any ceasefire won't last long.

http://www.debka.com/article/21833/

Edited March 17, 2012 by Steely Dan

[Colin Yai]

Thanks for the link Dan , reading it twice just to digest it I would think that a meaningful ceasefire is dreamsville, sooner or later this is going to come to a head with obviously more Hamas casualty's and the usual wringing of hands by the left wing "bleeding heart" brigade blaming every thing on Israel as per usual , what ever comes out of Gaza is Hamas's total responsibility ,and for anyone to think any different is IMHO fanciful and biased thinking.

Edited March 17, 2012 by Colin Yai

[Pakboong]

No doubt my math is a SWAG and not a real calculation. But the principle makes sense to me much more so than the Hamas always bad rhetoric but no damage. Of course it will be easy to shoot holes in my wild theory but, any of us trying to pay attention know how Israel likes to have it all carefully calculated in their favor and that is a complement to them, not a dig. That is exactly how I would run the operation if I were king.

All of the math is immaterial. It is simply rockets fired, people killed analysis. There are a million variables that cannot be calculated to any degree of certainty. Bottom line remains; lots of effort and almost no effect. Doesn't make sense to me but I am very much aware of what kind of attention this theory will draw.

Any example I might use will be countered by many contrary examples.

Any time you throw out a theory such as this one you risk sounding really stupid. I have no problem running that risk. Otherwise, I might as well spend my time debating the best burger in Bangkok.

What a coup to be able to pull such as that off.

[Pakboong]

Thanks for the link Dan , reading it twice just to digest it I would think that a meaningful ceasefire is dreamsville, sooner or later this is going to come to a head with obviously more Hamas casualty's and the usual wringing of hands by the left wing "bleeding heart" brigade blaming every thing on Israel as per usual , what ever comes out of Gaza is Hamas's total responsibility ,and for anyone to think any different is IMHO fanciful and biased thinking.

The beauty of all previous cease fires and for that matter, any more that are likely created, Hamas violates them all. How convenient?

[Steely Dan]

http://www.atimes.co...t/NC17Ak01.html

"even the hawks are sensitive to international pressure and know that an extended operation in Gaza would make a raid against Iran more difficult."

You can see how the pieces can fit together, not that there is any guarantee that this is what is infact happening.