GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[mccw]

45.2 :0 how low will it go? 40 doesn't look so far away. 30 within a couple of years

Figures plucked out of thin air.

My reasoning is:

At 47-48 many were thinking we could be on the lower side of a dip on the range of last yearor 2 and up toward 49-50 was just a matter; 45 was looking reasonably fat away and unlikely according to the recent trend range, but here we are at and past the 45 psychological barrier. My UK banks offering 43.somethings ; so the next psychological barrier of 40 really isn't looking so far at all, certainly closer than the 45 was to to the 48. We are out of the trend and in to decent. With a bit more QE and/ or recession coming more likely than not over next few months then I'm putting 40 by years end if not the summer. Major recessions sparked by fresh US or EU crises accompanied by more and massive QE can easily send price down to low 30s I think. My guess for this happening is around this time next year give or take a few months. This being based on average cycle times + the severity of problem accumulated/delayed.

[Denizen]

A lot of people don't seem to understand why the GBP got high in the first place. It was North Sea oil and gas exports and rising oil prices in the 1980s that caused the rise. Now oil and gas production is declining UK is facing the reverse effect of rising oil prices as UK became a net oil and gas importer.

The high GBP was exacerbated in recent years by the UK government irrationally supporting the GBP against downward pressure which could have allowed it to parachute down instead of splatting. Not only did this irrational support cause the plunge but it also cost the UK government a lot of money translated into debt.

Not only has declining oil and gas production affected balance of trade but it has savagely eroded the easy revenue the government was getting for oil and gas royalties. The missing oil revenues will now be made up by increasing tax. The tax man will plunge its hands deep into the pockets of UK residents.

I was in UK for 2 years from 1977 and it was a poverty stricken place strictly under IMF controls such that people traveling outside UK could only take 50 GBP with them. Maybe this will happen again. Despite the poverty in 1977 the UK cost of living was higher than that of Australia.

Who knows where the GBP bottom is.

Edited February 28, 2013 by Denizen

[Denizen]

Below is a chart demonstrating UK oil import growing. The transition from exporter to importer was in 2005. Now its a growing problem adversely affecting balance of trade and severely reducing royalties to government from oil and gas producers.

If oil price rises after current recession UK will suffer further adverse balance of payments pressure.

[draftvader]

The logic is in both the previous statements, there is no arguing this. There is, however, more to the modern world than fuel stock. We are fortunate in the UK to have a well educated workforce (comparatively) that is slowly becoming more cost-effective to the rest of the world. The problems above are fairly polarised and make sense if applied retrospectively. There is, however, glimmers of hope. My value, as a web designer with a decent knowledge of English, is increasing here in Thailand. Being that my services and products are virtual I can sell them here, through my website, and provide those services from the UK. I pay UK tax on my earnings and the Thai business can't claim anything back on their tax, but the plumetting exchange rates are providing me with a new market to be competitive in at my normal UK rates.

I am by no means a ground-breaking business. I create attractive managed web solutions for SMEs, I have my competitive edge, but it isn't technology based. There are plenty of super-smart web agencies in the UK who can now push their business around the world without any real issues. This is a low cost transaction that brings money into the UK for the British Government to tax. I have, in my previous life, managed sales teams for a number of small software businesses in the UK and can confirm that there is some real talent and creativity coming from the UK. I personally can't compete with those businesses on a technical basis, but am able to bring the element of commercial knowledge into the mix providing my clients with competitive websites at a realistic cost.

Away from my business my point is that the UK can grow again and quickly with new markets and industries. The business landscape in the UK will change rapidly over the next few years and I think that it is the government's responsibility to keep up to date. They need to stop flogging the dead "O&G" horse (bar the supporting engineering services industries) and start working with up and coming tech and manufacturing industries.

All this said I am still with the previous posters in the belief that we won't see 50 again for 18-24 months. We are likely to see 40 (and maybe even sub 40) within this time (I would like it to touch 36 (in reality I would love it to touch 1:1 then be back to say 90:1 the next day) in a realistic, but still safe, world). My family count our blessings that our plan is Thailand for the next 2-4 years then somewhere else then back to Blighty to educate our girl. This could all change, but for now we are happy with my wife's earnings here as an International School Teacher and my growing small business in the UK. If our plans change we will still benefit from this trough in GBP as we can load our UK investments whilst the GBP drops then either head back or exploit them as it rises again.

Another tiny little point to make is that it is possible to have savings in the UK that carry a minimal risk (but no more risk than a collapsing bank) but give 8% per annum. This is not our high risk stuff, but our day to day savings. We keep no more money in the bank than we need for cashflow over the next few months.

Good luck to all of us and let's hope our government gets its head out of its ar*e and its little grubby fingers out of the O&G pie and backs the right horse in the next race or 2! I would hand over a couple of honoury directorships for a little leeway for my business! Like the UK isn't corrupt!

Edited February 28, 2013 by draftvader

[Denizen]

The logic is in both the previous statements, there is no arguing this. There is, however, more to the modern world than fuel stock. We are fortunate in the UK to have a well educated workforce (comparatively) that is slowly becoming more cost-effective to the rest of the world. The problems above are fairly polarised and make sense if applied retrospectively. There is, however, glimmers of hope. My value, as a web designer with a decent knowledge of English, is increasing here in Thailand. Being that my services and products are virtual I can sell them here, through my website, and provide those services from the UK. I pay UK tax on my earnings and the Thai business can't claim anything back on their tax, but the plumetting exchange rates are providing me with a new market to be competitive in at my normal UK rates.

I am by no means a ground-breaking business. I create attractive managed web solutions for SMEs, I have my competitive edge, but it isn't technology based. There are plenty of super-smart web agencies in the UK who can now push their business around the world without any real issues. This is a low cost transaction that brings money into the UK for the British Government to tax. I have, in my previous life, managed sales teams for a number of small software businesses in the UK and can confirm that there is some real talent and creativity coming from the UK. I personally can't compete with those businesses on a technical basis, but am able to bring the element of commercial knowledge into the mix providing my clients with competitive websites at a realistic cost.

Away from my business my point is that the UK can grow again and quickly with new markets and industries. The business landscape in the UK will change rapidly over the next few years and I think that it is the government's responsibility to keep up to date. They need to stop flogging the dead "O&G" horse (bar the supporting engineering services industries) and start working with up and coming tech and manufacturing industries.

All this said I am still with the previous posters in the belief that we won't see 50 again for 18-24 months. We are likely to see 40 (and maybe even sub 40) within this time (I would like it to touch 36 (in reality I would love it to touch 1:1 then be back to say 90:1 the next day) in a realistic, but still safe, world). My family count our blessings that our plan is Thailand for the next 2-4 years then somewhere else then back to Blighty to educate our girl. This could all change, but for now we are happy with my wife's earnings here as an International School Teacher and my growing small business in the UK. If our plans change we will still benefit from this trough in GBP as we can load our UK investments whilst the GBP drops then either head back or exploit them as it rises again.

Another tiny little point to make is that it is possible to have savings in the UK that carry a minimal risk (but no more risk than a collapsing bank) but give 8% per annum. This is not our high risk stuff, but our day to day savings. We keep no more money in the bank than we need for cashflow over the next few months.

Good luck to all of us and let's hope our government gets its head out of its ar*e and its little grubby fingers out of the O&G pie and backs the right horse in the next race or 2! I would hand over a couple of honoury directorships for a little leeway for my business! Like the UK isn't corrupt!

You are irrationally optimistic expecting the GBP to rise again.

UK productivity is trending down and that is not cheerful news for the future. See the graph below which has a marked downward trend. Part of this downward trend is caused by declining productivity in the oil and gas industry. However most of it must be industry in general.

The only reason the GBP rose in the 80s and held that rise through to 2008 was oil and gas production.

There does not seem to be any reason for the GBP to rise in a declining oil and gas production scenario. UK Government needs to increase taxes across the board and this will probably have a negative impact on GDP growth.

Don't hold your breath waiting for GBP to rise against USD and THB. GBP is even declining against the Euro.

[draftvader]

The logic is in both the previous statements, there is no arguing this. There is, however, more to the modern world than fuel stock. We are fortunate in the UK to have a well educated workforce (comparatively) that is slowly becoming more cost-effective to the rest of the world. The problems above are fairly polarised and make sense if applied retrospectively. There is, however, glimmers of hope. My value, as a web designer with a decent knowledge of English, is increasing here in Thailand. Being that my services and products are virtual I can sell them here, through my website, and provide those services from the UK. I pay UK tax on my earnings and the Thai business can't claim anything back on their tax, but the plumetting exchange rates are providing me with a new market to be competitive in at my normal UK rates.

I am by no means a ground-breaking business. I create attractive managed web solutions for SMEs, I have my competitive edge, but it isn't technology based. There are plenty of super-smart web agencies in the UK who can now push their business around the world without any real issues. This is a low cost transaction that brings money into the UK for the British Government to tax. I have, in my previous life, managed sales teams for a number of small software businesses in the UK and can confirm that there is some real talent and creativity coming from the UK. I personally can't compete with those businesses on a technical basis, but am able to bring the element of commercial knowledge into the mix providing my clients with competitive websites at a realistic cost.

Away from my business my point is that the UK can grow again and quickly with new markets and industries. The business landscape in the UK will change rapidly over the next few years and I think that it is the government's responsibility to keep up to date. They need to stop flogging the dead "O&G" horse (bar the supporting engineering services industries) and start working with up and coming tech and manufacturing industries.

All this said I am still with the previous posters in the belief that we won't see 50 again for 18-24 months. We are likely to see 40 (and maybe even sub 40) within this time (I would like it to touch 36 (in reality I would love it to touch 1:1 then be back to say 90:1 the next day) in a realistic, but still safe, world). My family count our blessings that our plan is Thailand for the next 2-4 years then somewhere else then back to Blighty to educate our girl. This could all change, but for now we are happy with my wife's earnings here as an International School Teacher and my growing small business in the UK. If our plans change we will still benefit from this trough in GBP as we can load our UK investments whilst the GBP drops then either head back or exploit them as it rises again.

Another tiny little point to make is that it is possible to have savings in the UK that carry a minimal risk (but no more risk than a collapsing bank) but give 8% per annum. This is not our high risk stuff, but our day to day savings. We keep no more money in the bank than we need for cashflow over the next few months.

Good luck to all of us and let's hope our government gets its head out of its ar*e and its little grubby fingers out of the O&G pie and backs the right horse in the next race or 2! I would hand over a couple of honoury directorships for a little leeway for my business! Like the UK isn't corrupt!

You are irrationally optimistic expecting the GBP to rise again.

UK productivity is trending down and that is not cheerful news for the future. See the graph below which has a marked downward trend. Part of this downward trend is caused by declining productivity in the oil and gas industry. However most of it must be industry in general.

The only reason the GBP rose in the 80s and held that rise through to 2008 was oil and gas production.

There does not seem to be any reason for the GBP to rise in a declining oil and gas production scenario. UK Government needs to increase taxes across the board and this will probably have a negative impact on GDP growth.

Don't hold your breath waiting for GBP to rise against USD and THB. GBP is even declining against the Euro.

Thank you for describing me as irrational. My wife will enjoy that one. My reasoning is mildly optomistic, but then again why would I stop believing in my birth country? If people keep on looking backwards we'll never move forward. I am not alone in believing that you can't put the UK down. After all, look through British history, we haven't always had Oil and Gas.

[exeter]

The logic is in both the previous statements, there is no arguing this. There is, however, more to the modern world than fuel stock. We are fortunate in the UK to have a well educated workforce (comparatively) that is slowly becoming more cost-effective to the rest of the world. The problems above are fairly polarised and make sense if applied retrospectively. There is, however, glimmers of hope. My value, as a web designer with a decent knowledge of English, is increasing here in Thailand. Being that my services and products are virtual I can sell them here, through my website, and provide those services from the UK. I pay UK tax on my earnings and the Thai business can't claim anything back on their tax, but the plumetting exchange rates are providing me with a new market to be competitive in at my normal UK rates.

I am by no means a ground-breaking business. I create attractive managed web solutions for SMEs, I have my competitive edge, but it isn't technology based. There are plenty of super-smart web agencies in the UK who can now push their business around the world without any real issues. This is a low cost transaction that brings money into the UK for the British Government to tax. I have, in my previous life, managed sales teams for a number of small software businesses in the UK and can confirm that there is some real talent and creativity coming from the UK. I personally can't compete with those businesses on a technical basis, but am able to bring the element of commercial knowledge into the mix providing my clients with competitive websites at a realistic cost.

Away from my business my point is that the UK can grow again and quickly with new markets and industries. The business landscape in the UK will change rapidly over the next few years and I think that it is the government's responsibility to keep up to date. They need to stop flogging the dead "O&G" horse (bar the supporting engineering services industries) and start working with up and coming tech and manufacturing industries.

All this said I am still with the previous posters in the belief that we won't see 50 again for 18-24 months. We are likely to see 40 (and maybe even sub 40) within this time (I would like it to touch 36 (in reality I would love it to touch 1:1 then be back to say 90:1 the next day) in a realistic, but still safe, world). My family count our blessings that our plan is Thailand for the next 2-4 years then somewhere else then back to Blighty to educate our girl. This could all change, but for now we are happy with my wife's earnings here as an International School Teacher and my growing small business in the UK. If our plans change we will still benefit from this trough in GBP as we can load our UK investments whilst the GBP drops then either head back or exploit them as it rises again.

Another tiny little point to make is that it is possible to have savings in the UK that carry a minimal risk (but no more risk than a collapsing bank) but give 8% per annum. This is not our high risk stuff, but our day to day savings. We keep no more money in the bank than we need for cashflow over the next few months.

Good luck to all of us and let's hope our government gets its head out of its ar*e and its little grubby fingers out of the O&G pie and backs the right horse in the next race or 2! I would hand over a couple of honoury directorships for a little leeway for my business! Like the UK isn't corrupt!

You are irrationally optimistic expecting the GBP to rise again.

UK productivity is trending down and that is not cheerful news for the future. See the graph below which has a marked downward trend. Part of this downward trend is caused by declining productivity in the oil and gas industry. However most of it must be industry in general.

The only reason the GBP rose in the 80s and held that rise through to 2008 was oil and gas production.

There does not seem to be any reason for the GBP to rise in a declining oil and gas production scenario. UK Government needs to increase taxes across the board and this will probably have a negative impact on GDP growth.

Don't hold your breath waiting for GBP to rise against USD and THB. GBP is even declining against the Euro.

Thank you for describing me as irrational. My wife will enjoy that one. My reasoning is mildly optomistic, but then again why would I stop believing in my birth country? If people keep on looking backwards we'll never move forward. I am not alone in believing that you can't put the UK down. After all, look through British history, we haven't always had Oil and Gas.

If they get this shale gas on the go the world could change dramatically. They, experts in the UK who have done the surveys, reckon that we sit on hugs deposits of the fuel, if they can get it out safely, that sure would help the engery requirements for the UK and no doubt the the Govt will be dreaming up new taxes to make sure they take the lions share of the Bonanza.

Britain always bounces back, if you look at our history, not necceaasrily a guide for the future, but, it would be a big mistake to rule it out, we have invented a lot things we use today.

[Naam]

After all, look through British history, we haven't always had Oil and Gas.

before Oil and Gas you had the <deleted>

[Thailand1977]

A lot of people don't seem to understand why the GBP got high in the first place. It was North Sea oil and gas exports and rising oil prices in the 1980s that caused the rise. Now oil and gas production is declining UK is facing the reverse effect of rising oil prices as UK became a net oil and gas importer.

I was in UK for 2 years from 1977 and it was a poverty stricken place strictly under IMF controls such that people traveling outside UK could only take 50 GBP with them. Maybe this will happen again. Despite the poverty in 1977 the UK cost of living was higher than that of Australia.

Who knows where the GBP bottom is.

So why was Britain so successful up until 1977? ie the 300 years prior?

There is no doubt oil got Britain out the sh7t, but you over estimate the percentage of oil and gas revenue in relation to the overall economy in recent years, and from what i see this was spunked on putting people on social security benefits and a few wars.

But have a look at tax revenues from o and g over this period http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/prt/og-stats.pdf and 2011-12.

And why are the Iranian, Nigerian, Iraqi, Angolan, Kazakhstan currencies not worth a wank? They've plenty of oil.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

If you were there when the currency was devalued it would have been a bit more of a struggle then before the IMF got a call, but there were plenty of high end manufacturing jobs so things arent as bad as you're making out.

Oil investment is rising its the highest for 30 years and you seem to forget that England is effectively built upon coal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21564947

Pound to me look like its approx at its long term average v the USD (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/currency), and unless folk of Thailand, China, Vietnam etc.. stayed as subsistence farmers then it was inevitable that the standard of living in these countries would soon catch up.

The reason the pound was strong vs the BHT in the noughties is because Thailand was recovering and Tony and Gordon were spending like any evil socialist would, and the banks were lending trillions that never existed for the dumfux of Britain to spend on overpriced property, holidays and Asian made goods to make the economy look as if it was doing well.

PS The fact that British and Norwegians managed to get oil out the North Sea is why the economy will recover, such genius is difficult to match ... once the IMF has been called in to rid us of corporatist-socialists and when we get out the EU so we can get that coal out the ground and are not bound over by their carbon charging and endless redtape we'll be ok.

PPS When the govt realises it has the perfect opportunity to build 300,000 properties per year this is another opportunity for growth, no nation in the developed world has such an opportunity ... unfortunately the current lot havent the brains for now.

http://centreforeuropeanreform.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/why-british-prosperity-is-hobbled-by.html

Edited March 1, 2013 by Thailand1977

[Naam]

The fact that British and Norwegians managed to get oil out the North
Sea is why the economy will recover, such genius is difficult to match
... once the IMF has been called in to rid us of corporatist-socialists
and when we get out the EU so we can get that coal out the ground and
are not bound over by their carbon charging and endless redtape we'll be
ok.

it goes without saying that post EU it's "rule Britannia!" again.

[Denizen]

A lot of people don't seem to understand why the GBP got high in the first place. It was North Sea oil and gas exports and rising oil prices in the 1980s that caused the rise. Now oil and gas production is declining UK is facing the reverse effect of rising oil prices as UK became a net oil and gas importer.

I was in UK for 2 years from 1977 and it was a poverty stricken place strictly under IMF controls such that people traveling outside UK could only take 50 GBP with them. Maybe this will happen again. Despite the poverty in 1977 the UK cost of living was higher than that of Australia.

Who knows where the GBP bottom is.

So why was Britain so successful up until 1977? ie the 300 years prior?

There is no doubt oil got Britain out the sh7t, but you over estimate the percentage of oil and gas revenue in relation to the overall economy in recent years, and from what i see this was spunked on putting people on social security benefits and a few wars.

But have a look at tax revenues from o and g over this period http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/prt/og-stats.pdf and 2011-12.

And why are the Iranian, Nigerian, Iraqi, Angolan, Kazakhstan currencies not worth a wank? They've plenty of oil.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production

If you were there when the currency was devalued it would have been a bit more of a struggle then before the IMF got a call, but there were plenty of high end manufacturing jobs so things arent as bad as you're making out.

Oil investment is rising its the highest for 30 years and you seem to forget that England is effectively built upon coal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21564947

Pound to me look like its approx at its long term average v the USD (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/currency), and unless folk of Thailand, China, Vietnam etc.. stayed as subsistence farmers then it was inevitable that the standard of living in these countries would soon catch up.

The reason the pound was strong vs the BHT in the noughties is because Thailand was recovering and Tony and Gordon were spending like any evil socialist would, and the banks were lending trillions that never existed for the dumfux of Britain to spend on overpriced property, holidays and Asian made goods to make the economy look as if it was doing well.

PS The fact that British and Norwegians managed to get oil out the North Sea is why the economy will recover, such genius is difficult to match ... once the IMF has been called in to rid us of corporatist-socialists and when we get out the EU so we can get that coal out the ground and are not bound over by their carbon charging and endless redtape we'll be ok.

PPS When the govt realises it has the perfect opportunity to build 300,000 properties per year this is another opportunity for growth, no nation in the developed world has such an opportunity ... unfortunately the current lot havent the brains for now.

http://centreforeuropeanreform.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/why-british-prosperity-is-hobbled-by.html

Just a correction to your perceptions that "PS The fact that British and Norwegians managed to get oil out the North Sea" is not correct.

The Americans were first to get oil out of the North Sea and the British reverse engineered USA's knowledge.

And, in regard to "So why was Britain so successful up until 1977?" ... they weren't! At the end of WW2 exchange rate was GBP 1 = USD 4.

If a declining exchange rate is a measure of success in the UK the peasants of UK must be delirious with joy at the present situation.

Edited March 1, 2013 by Denizen

[thenervoussurgeon]

The fact that British and Norwegians managed to get oil out the North

Sea is why the economy will recover, such genius is difficult to match

... once the IMF has been called in to rid us of corporatist-socialists

and when we get out the EU so we can get that coal out the ground and

are not bound over by their carbon charging and endless redtape we'll be

ok.

it goes without saying that post EU it's "rule Britannia!" again.

Yes "rule Britania" we always have and always will come out on top , we never give up ,not like some nations.

[Denizen]

The fact that British and Norwegians managed to get oil out the North

Sea is why the economy will recover, such genius is difficult to match

... once the IMF has been called in to rid us of corporatist-socialists

and when we get out the EU so we can get that coal out the ground and

are not bound over by their carbon charging and endless redtape we'll be

ok.

it goes without saying that post EU it's "rule Britannia!" again.

Yes "rule Britania" we always have and always will come out on top , we never give up ,not like some nations.

During the poverty stricken British coal era of 1960s and 1970s smog was the biggest British export across the channel and treatment of chronic bronchial conditions was the biggest growth industry in UK.

The GBP is still downwardly mobile.

Edited March 1, 2013 by Denizen

[Naam]

the decline of GBP was caused by abandoning the interesting monetary structure Pound, Shilling, Pence. as schoolboys we were fascinated that things could cost "two and tuppence" and the variety of existing coins. for us the most interesting coin was the "Fart-Thing".

[Denizen]

the decline of GBP was caused by abandoning the interesting monetary structure Pound, Shilling, Pence. as schoolboys we were fascinated that things could cost "two and tuppence" and the variety of existing coins. for us the most interesting coin was the "Fart-Thing".

Don't hold your breath but the fart-thing could become valuable again in the UK.

[mommysboy]

I'm not sure we need look too deeply as to why the pound is so low against the baht, it's just about economic performance, public and private debt and interest rates; lack of in the case of GB.

It does surprise me that GBP is dropping against the Euro and USD, after all the respective economies are not doing any better and arguably much worse, eg, USA hasn't even begun to address its even higher debt burden.

I think the shorters just spotted an opportunity and could do it because the GBP is small enough to manipulate, and further the B of E seems to lose no opportunity to talk the pound down at every turn. Makes me think there is some major restructuring going on, and to my mind I think UK is rebalancing the economy after years of neglect.

Quite an opportunity really, but obviously not an opinion an expat on a pension is likely to hold.

[Denizen]

I'm not sure we need look too deeply as to why the pound is so low against the baht, it's just about economic performance, public and private debt and interest rates; lack of in the case of GB.

It does surprise me that GBP is dropping against the Euro and USD, after all the respective economies are not doing any better and arguably much worse, eg, USA hasn't even begun to address its even higher debt burden.

I think the shorters just spotted an opportunity and could do it because the GBP is small enough to manipulate, and further the B of E seems to lose no opportunity to talk the pound down at every turn. Makes me think there is some major restructuring going on, and to my mind I think UK is rebalancing the economy after years of neglect.

Quite an opportunity really, but obviously not an opinion an expat on a pension is likely to hold.

The GBP has a long history of decline since 1940 also with some big dips since 1920. See chart below.

I was very lucky. I had a job which paid GBP in 2007 and the exchange rate was 70+. I changed my GBP to THB as soon as I got paid each month.

Edited March 1, 2013 by Denizen

[Thailand1977]

The fact that British and Norwegians managed to get oil out the North

Sea is why the economy will recover, such genius is difficult to match

... once the IMF has been called in to rid us of corporatist-socialists

and when we get out the EU so we can get that coal out the ground and

are not bound over by their carbon charging and endless redtape we'll be

ok.

it goes without saying that post EU it's "rule Britannia!" again.

Yes "rule Britania" we always have and always will come out on top , we never give up ,not like some nations.

During the poverty stricken British coal era of 1960s and 1970s smog was the biggest British export across the channel and treatment of chronic bronchial conditions was the biggest growth industry in UK.

The GBP is still downwardly mobile.

Your chart shows for the last 35 years the pound has averaged at about 1.5 vs the Dollar.

But America was the major growing economy on the planet during C20, it is inevitable that it would strengthen.

And your earlier comment about the value of Sterling at the end of WW2 is ridiculous, we were a broken country and utterly indebted and bankrupt ... it was our reward for fighting in WW2 .... America gained the most and we lost the most (more then Germany and Japan) in economic terms due to WW2.

[Thailand1977]

The fact that British and Norwegians managed to get oil out the North

Sea is why the economy will recover, such genius is difficult to match

... once the IMF has been called in to rid us of corporatist-socialists

and when we get out the EU so we can get that coal out the ground and

are not bound over by their carbon charging and endless redtape we'll be

ok.

it goes without saying that post EU it's "rule Britannia!" again.

Just ruling England would be enough for me, i was born way after there was any empire and even those that lived under it couldnt have really gave a crap about it.

Ridding ourselves of an unelected bunch of bureaucrats who are hell bent on creating stifling business rules and regulations is without doubt going to help the economy. If the Germans no longer wish to sell us their BMWs and Mercs upon leaving we will somehow survive.

A fantastic performance by UKIP last night,despite the BBC rarely giving them coverage... its only a matter of time.

[chiang mai]

We seem to have moved into the phylosophical and away from the core issue: GBP is down another cent today on the back of the Markit manufacturing numbers and a 45% chance of further QE next week as a result, it's looking ugly(ier) for GBP. In the meantime I'm here in the UK and it's very very cold to me, but am pleased to report that the local ale here in the Cotswolds is as wonderful as ever, albeit I just paid £3.75 for a pint of 6X, my guess is, looking at the price of goods here, that same pint will easily cost over £4 before year end - veggies in the supermarkets, absolutley outrageous, where can I buy a tin hat I wonder.

[yoshiwara]

Cable has merely retraced to the rate in June 2010.

[chiang mai]

Cable has merely retraced to the rate in June 2010.

Neat, but where will it retrace to next is the question, after the fact analytics and rearwards views are not helpful, unless otherwise supported.

[chiang mai]

A Pound related article from that centre of financial excellence reporting, it seems we should all breath a sigh of relief and that the Pound has been over sold, a rebound is on the cards! I'm off to the pub to discuss.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2286073/Worst-sterling-Pound-set-recover-euro.html

[Thailand1977]

We seem to have moved into the phylosophical and away from the core issue: GBP is down another cent today on the back of the Markit manufacturing numbers and a 45% chance of further QE next week as a result, it's looking ugly(ier) for GBP. In the meantime I'm here in the UK and it's very very cold to me, but am pleased to report that the local ale here in the Cotswolds is as wonderful as ever, albeit I just paid £3.75 for a pint of 6X, my guess is, looking at the price of goods here, that same pint will easily cost over £4 before year end - veggies in the supermarkets, absolutley outrageous, where can I buy a tin hat I wonder.

You're in one of the most expensive places in the country and a tourist area .... that seems a reasonable price and fairly stable to how it has been in the last 10 years. 20 years ago when i first started sneaking into pubs it was 2.20GBP for a pint of Stella. Id be willing to bet Wetherspoons could match the price in 2013 in the Cotswolds.

http://www.jdwetherspoon.co.uk/home/hotels/the-royal-hop-pole

Now if you want to see inflation get yourself back to Thailand where money from the west is being sent by the banks hand over fist. What is the saying inflation is the mother and father of unemployment.

[yoshiwara]

Too many confuse their own situation wanting a higher GBPTHB rate with good/bad for the UK.

[chiang mai]

We seem to have moved into the phylosophical and away from the core issue: GBP is down another cent today on the back of the Markit manufacturing numbers and a 45% chance of further QE next week as a result, it's looking ugly(ier) for GBP. In the meantime I'm here in the UK and it's very very cold to me, but am pleased to report that the local ale here in the Cotswolds is as wonderful as ever, albeit I just paid £3.75 for a pint of 6X, my guess is, looking at the price of goods here, that same pint will easily cost over £4 before year end - veggies in the supermarkets, absolutley outrageous, where can I buy a tin hat I wonder.

You're in one of the most expensive places in the country and a tourist area .... that seems a reasonable price and fairly stable to how it has been in the last 10 years. 20 years ago when i first started sneaking into pubs it was 2.20GBP for a pint of Stella. Id be willing to bet Wetherspoons could match the price in 2013 in the Cotswolds.

http://www.jdwetherspoon.co.uk/home/hotels/the-royal-hop-pole

Now if you want to see inflation get yourself back to Thailand where money from the west is being sent by the banks hand over fist. What is the saying inflation is the mother and father of unemployment.

I am here out of necessity, not out of desire, and having been here only two nights thus far I have already called to try and reschedule my return, regrettably I'm here until the 10th, argh!

BTW what's a Stella and a Wetherspoons, I know nothing of such things, whatever they might be. CAMRA lives!

BTW2 when I first started sneaking into pubs 48 years ago, a pint of real ale was 9 pence.

Edited March 1, 2013 by chiang mai

[yoshiwara]

Cable has merely retraced to the rate in June 2010.

Neat, but where will it retrace to next is the question, after the fact analytics and rearwards views are not helpful, unless otherwise supported.

We look forward to your analysis of the future and recommended trade.

[chiang mai]

Cable has merely retraced to the rate in June 2010.

Neat, but where will it retrace to next is the question, after the fact analytics and rearwards views are not helpful, unless otherwise supported.

We look forward to your analysis of the future and recommended trade.

It's hugely unlikley that I would ever again make any recommendations on this because I am not trained nor equipped to do so. But if you want to ask me what my instinct tells me, I would say that GBP will likely surprise, as it relates to USD and THB and that the current doom and gloom is overdone - I offer no facts to support this sentiment.

[Thailand1977]

Too many confuse their own situation wanting a higher GBPTHB rate with good/bad for the UK.

I want a weak Pound vs Euro/Dollar as thats what i'll be getting paid in, but i don't see the sky falling in on Britain just yet.

For me Thailands just a nuisance place i may have to go to for 18 months, if the rates are against me i will just spend less!

[Denizen]

Doesn't look like GBP exchange rate has any cause to be upwardly mobile soon. Even the olympics had no noticeable effect.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual