Pongsapat's Loss Is A Blow For Thaksin

[webfact]

ANALYSIS
Pongsapat's Loss is a blow for Thaksin
Jintana Panyaarvudh,
Kornchanok Raksaseri
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- If any candidate from former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's camp could ever win a Bangkok gubernatorial election, the one who had the most chance was probably Pol Gen Pongsapat Pongcharoen, especially considering poll results over the past month showing his popularity on the rise constantly.

Political "freshness" and his social assets - reputation and support - made many Bangkokians consider him their choice.

He did better than many others backed by Thaksin - Yuranan Pamornmontree (who got 611,699 votes), Prapat Chongsanguan (543,488 votes), Pavena Hongsakula (619,039) and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan (521,184 votes) - who contested previous elections while their arch-rivals the Democrats have held the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's top post over the past nine years.

Pongsapat set a record for the number of votes won by a runner-up in the Bangkok election - tallying over one million.

Unfortunately, his selling points were not enough to draw the most votes from Bangkok residents.

Pre-election surveys suggested Pongsapat was leading and may have urged more people to vote.

Still, the vote results suggest people in Bangkok did not want Thaksin's representative to win. While some were not so happy with MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, they reluctantly backed the Democrat candidate.

One reason is Bangkokians don't want a "monopoly" or "takeover" by Thaksin's camp after over 10 years of national government since Thai Rak Thai Party won in 2001 to the incumbent Pheu Thai Party headed by his sister Yingluck. They want the parliamentary opposition party as a balance on power and still want a "seam" between national and local politics. While the chance of the Democrats coming back as a national government seems to be slim, they gave the Democrats an opportunity to run the capital.

Looking further, some Bangkokians may fear that Thaksin might claim Pongsapat's victory as acceptance by the whole country of his sister's government. He may even push for an amnesty law to try to return without going to jail.

In a way, the poll result shows that Bangkok residents were not ready to change. When the only outstanding choices came from the two major political parties, they chose to give Sukhumbhand another term rather than a new face.

Pheu Thai Party's decisions could also be faulted. Knowledge, capability and experience should be qualifications for voters to consider, but Pongsapat has never proved he has outstanding management ability. Further, it is widely known Thaksin was the one who picked Pongsapat and no one else. And if he had won, Pongsapat would undoubtedly have been Thaksin's nominee.

Thaksin might be blamed by some in Pheu Thai for this loss, because Sudarat Keyuraphan was another promising choice - a prominent female politician who has gained support from Bangkok MPs as well as district councillors in the city. When Thaksin chose Pongsapat, those party members were reluctant to support him.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung seemed to not help much to draw votes in Thon Buri areas, where many Democrats voters are based. Nong Khaem was the only area where Pongsapat's tally was over Sukhumbhand's. Either Chalerm's "influence" has faded, or his role in protecting Yingluck and her brother did not help Pheu Thai's popularity.

More importantly, credit also goes to the final strategy of the Democrats - their "scare tactic" to remind Bangkok residents which side had the stigma of the political turmoil from the red shirts' protest in 2010 that led to burning of buildings in the city centre.

This tactic might have worked well in the last period of election campaign and finally helped the Democrats to keep their vote base.

The scare was coupled with rumours that red-shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan would be one of Pongsapat's deputies. Yingluck and Pheu Thai's rebuttals of this may have calmed people's fears about such a prospect.

Pongsapat, in the end, won the election only in the opinion polls.

Pheu Thai Party might say it did not lose anything in this ballot. But it may want to question if it has reached a turning point - whether it is time for the party consider if it should continue using populist policies and whether they win over the grassroots metropolitan voters. Or should they change and try new ideas to win the hearts of city voters? It should know that the middle and upper middle class do not accept populist policies, and that they see them as burden on the government's budget.

Pheu Thai must also be careful not to insult Bangkok people - to think deeply when considering a candidate, and design well-crafted policies. Claims that any party candidate could win against the incumbent - even if it fielded an electricity pole - would have offended many.

Pheu Thai Party has failed to beat a rival party seen by many as old and weak, with a candidate many claim was not so outstanding. Unless they can take Bangkok, Pheu Thai must accept defeat for a long time and could find this a trauma according to the Two Cities theory that says, "Provincial people set up the government, Bangkok people overthrow the government."

This is another lesson for the former leader Thaksin.


-- The Nation 2013-03-04

[dcutman]

Pongsapat's Loss is a blow for Thaksin

Its a long trip to Dubai, possibly they could just meet in the middle, someplace romantic, surely.

Edited March 3, 2013 by dcutman

[Locationthailand]

It's okay - Thaksin fielded a telephone pole called Pongsapat and BKK raised a leg against it..

Edited March 4, 2013 by Locationthailand

[animatic]

A TELLING LINE:

"Pongsapat, in the end, won the election only in the opinion polls."

Yes indeed, the best polling propaganda money can buy,

still didn't create a ground swell for the police general.

Maybe people don't trust the police? LOL.

Or more so a Police Elite Generalisimo, even more in Thaksin's pocket.

Or maybe even the poor from the countryside working in the city between harvests,

are better informed than the mass of the poor back home? And so can't be talked,

or bribed, or lured, or coerced, into voting as the liege lord wants.

Edited March 4, 2013 by animatic

[OzMick]

If I was Thaksin's cat, I would be keeping a low profile.

[Chrisswe]

Remember Bankorians is not representative for the Thai people's , they want to keep the town in this awful mess!!

[rubl]

Remember Bankorians is not representative for the Thai people who want to keep the country in this awful mess!!

[bigbamboo]

If I was Thaksin's cat, I would be keeping a low profile.

Are you kidding?

It's probably already being prepared for the next election.

[Siripon]

Remember Bankorians is not representative for the Thai people's , they want to keep the town in this awful mess!

B

Edited March 4, 2013 by Siripon

[Siripon]

Remember Bankorians is not representative for the Thai people's , they want to keep the town in this awful mess!

B

Technical errors in the above post, I meant to say,Bangkokians are nearly, but not quite so foolish as to vote for a man who promised one toilet per bus stop. Plus many hate Thaksin. They should have fielded Khun Ying Sudarat but Yingluk couldn't bear sharing the limelight with another woman, especially one brighter than her.

[animatic]

Remember Bankorians is not representative for the Thai people's , they want to keep the town in this awful mess!

B

Technical errors in the above post, I meant to say,Bangkokians are nearly, but not quite so foolish as to vote for a man who promised one toilet per bus stop. Plus many hate Thaksin. They should have fielded Khun Ying Sudarat but Yingluk couldn't bear sharing the limelight with another woman, especially one brighter than her.

Technically inept, but also factually impossible to agree with.

Bangkok has the largest cross section of all of Thailand possible.

From the richest to the poorest they are all in Bangkok with any and all political views.

[billd766]

But but but but the Democrats....................................................

WON

[OzMick]

Congratulations to Pongsapat, the first loser.

[IMA_FARANG]

My Thai wife just said to me this morning:

"I couuldn't care less which group of organized crooks won the election, I just want them to leave me alone and let me live my life. Every politician is a crook anyhow, whatever party they belong to."

I think the majority of people in Bangkok would agree with that sentiment.

[Moruya]

Where is the telephone poll?

[maidu]

Pongsapat's Loss is a blow for Thaksin

.....like saying milk left out, will sour - pretty damn obvious

Mr "I'm through with politics" will continue to be a pox on Thailand. He loves the 'naughty boy' role too much to quit. Too bad, with all his billions, he can't assist anyone outside his immediate family or circle of brown-nosed friends.

[EyesWideOpen]

My Thai wife just said to me this morning:

"I couuldn't care less which group of organized crooks won the election, I just want them to leave me alone and let me live my life. Every politician is a crook anyhow, whatever party they belong to."

I think the majority of people in Bangkok would agree with that sentiment.

Your wife is exactly correct. Thailand has a long and glorious history of governmental corruption, and I do not recall any particular period when it ceased with a particular party's time in office. They indeed are all corrupt, and an election is nothing more than a fight to get a good spot at the feeding trough. Nothing is funnier or more ironic than to see candidate A rallying against candidate b's party, saying his party will be the one to stop corruption.. :-) Edited March 4, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[belg]

good, bangkok stays in the greedy hands of the dems, the reds control the rest of the country...time for a split ?

[Globeman]

A TELLING LINE:

"Pongsapat, in the end, won the election only in the opinion polls."

Yes indeed, the best polling propaganda money can buy,

still didn't create a ground swell for the police general.

Maybe people don't trust the police? LOL.

Or more so a Police Elite Generalisimo, even more in Thaksin's pocket.

Or maybe even the poor from the countryside working in the city between harvests,

are better informed than the mass of the poor back home? And so can't be talked,

or bribed, or lured, or coerced, into voting as the liege lord wants.

What, you reckon the PTP bought every poll organisation? Seems unlikely. Polls have been wrong before in other countries where they definitely aren't purchased - and it seems more likely to happen in a situation where the people are unhappy with the incumbent, but in the end have little choice - they say one thing to the pollsters and then chicken out at the last minute.

[Nickymaster]

If any candidate from former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's camp could ever win a Bangkok gubernatorial election, the one who had the most chance was probably Pol Gen Pongsapat Pongcharoen, especially considering poll results over the past month showing his popularity on the rise constantly.

Political "freshness" and his social assets - reputation and support - made many Bangkokians consider him their choice.

I have heard people say that Pongsapat could also have run for the DP.

[tragickingdom]

Is it? Pongsapat received more votes than any other candidate being it PT or Democrat ever and Bangkok is shifting rapidly from a DP base to PT. Was it closer to 70/30 before it is now maybe 53-47.

The Nations are the apologists for the establishment, their newspaper comes closer to a school newsletter than a serious paper. They are biased to a point that Fox news seem to be objective.

[newermonkey]

Remember Bankorians is not representative for the Thai people's , they want to keep the town in this awful mess!!

Yea your right of course (NOT) Bangkokians are Farang, not real Khon Thai.

Crist... it would be a mess if the reds ran Bangkok though.

[indyuk]

Pongsapat's Loss is a blow for Thaksin

Its a long trip to Dubai, possibly they could just meet in the middle, someplace romantic, surely.

That statement is pretty sick for a grown-up, that is assuming that you are an adult of course. :-D

[maidu]

Next election's promises to Bangkokians;

>>> free dust mask to every voter

>>> free sani-wipes for every resident - to wipe the black film off their faces at the end of the day.

>>> free ear plugs and nose plugs (with patented odor filters) for whomever requests

>>> oxygen breathing tubes at all banks and gov't buildings - only 20 baht per inhalation

(in at least one Japanese city, consumers can buy fresh air in soda-sized aluminum cans, no kidding)

>>> discount hip-high rubber boots for residents of drowned neighborhoods.

Edited March 4, 2013 by maidu

[Halion]

Yet another day of conjecture and debaucle in this Alice through the looking glass country.

The recent BMA election results had little or nothing to do with the candidates campaing policies. It was more of a message to the PTP that they are not trusted in any shape or form to have overall control of this country. Also highlighted,was that DPM Chalerm in his association with both the police and the PTP candidate,Pongsapat brought a negative impact as both the police and Chalerm are widely disliked and misstrusted and for valid and justifiable reasons.

In an earlier post a member stated that "Bangkok belongs to the Dems, however,, the rest of the country belongs to the Red Shirts". This may have been numericaly true during the trouble surrounding the last election however, it has little to do with politics and more with intelect, integrity and education.

Owing to the inherient culture of rampant corruption and abuse there, will for the forseeable future, exist this element of corruption within the incumbant Thai administration regardless of which party is in power and the secret is to select the party most likely to have the intelect , will , integrity and determination to reduce this type of Government abuse.

If the PTP wishes to provide the best for this nation they would be well advised to desist in their ridiculous populist policies targetd at vote buying only and get rid of the cancer within their higher echelons. They further need to reduce the authority and activity of both the armed forces and the police to a role of empowerment only and devoid of Governance. In simple terms they should do what they are told and stay out of political debate.

[inquisitive]

I am out of the country, but my wife called home to her family in Isaan to find out the results of the election. During that conversation she was told that for the last few months there has been a push to register Isaan residents with new addresses in Bangkok so that they could vote PT in this election. Can anyone confirm this story?

[Moruya]

Is it? Pongsapat received more votes than any other candidate being it PT or Democrat ever and Bangkok is shifting rapidly from a DP base to PT. Was it closer to 70/30 before it is now maybe 53-47.

The Nations are the apologists for the establishment, their newspaper comes closer to a school newsletter than a serious paper. They are biased to a point that Fox news seem to be objective.

That's a very weak statement.

Imagine if the Dems had fielded Korn? Pongsapat, a one month PTP member, would have lost his deposit!

[Skywalker69]

This is another lesson for the former leader Thaksin.

This is another lesson for the former defacto leader Thaksin.

[Nickymaster]

Pongsapat's Loss is a blow for Thaksin

Its a long trip to Dubai, possibly they could just meet in the middle, someplace romantic, surely.

That statement is pretty sick for a grown-up, that is assuming that you are an adult of course. :-D

Are you that old?

[OzMick]

Is it? Pongsapat received more votes than any other candidate being it PT or Democrat ever and Bangkok is shifting rapidly from a DP base to PT. Was it closer to 70/30 before it is now maybe 53-47.

The Nations are the apologists for the establishment, their newspaper comes closer to a school newsletter than a serious paper. They are biased to a point that Fox news seem to be objective.

Let's all sing along with Dr Hook - Better luck next time, baby...................