CDN Dollar VS Thai BHT

[smilingbuddah]

Hello Friends,

Having followed TV for a while now I see plenty of comments regarding the British Pound and the Australian Dollar but not too much regarding the CDN dollar.

We will be moving to Thailand in August and will have $50,000. CDN to transfer.

I see the SCB FX TT rate today is 30.04 which is higher than I have seen recently.

We also have a Canadian Forex account which will give you a lower rate, although today is the same rate as SCB at 30.04 for $50,000.

Can anyone tell me ( and i know there is no crystal ball ) where they think the CDN dollar might be going in the future against the Thai BHT ?

thank you in advance for all your help.

S.B.

[rfukata]

http://www.superrichthailand.com/new/exchange.html

i normally follow this exchange websites rates, however this is based on cash exchange only and you can view other

currencies as well on the given day.

[LuckyLew]

I do not know the long term for sure

but in the last few days the Thai baht has been hit pretty har

I am waiting to transfer money into Thailand and I am holding off

I really believe Thai baht will get weaker in the short term

If I were you, I would wait until August to complete the transfer

[reflectionx]

I just completed a wire transfer at about 30 (yesterday's rate), and although today the rate is even better, I don't regret it. Although I used a special account and could have waited more, I decided to do it as this is almost the rate we had at the end of 2012.

The problem with the CAD is that it is a more or less commodity based currency, so it does not take a lot to move lower by 2-3% in a day or two. Up until last Friday, it was on par with the Aussie at about 1.035 with the USD. However, on Friday the Canadian employement was sharply up, which drove the CAD up to 1.02/USD. In the meantime, the Aussie hit 1.06.

If it wasn't for the news, we would pobably be at 1.05/USD and 29.5 baht (translating into 29.2 - 29.3 for TT). I don't expect it to move much before the economy figures are released next month, but it might go lower after if the news are not as good. Now the expectations are high, so even somehow good numbers might be interpreted as bad.

[Pib]

I use a crystal ball for future currency rates...and it's wrong most of the time....it was made in Canada.

[PCA]

yeah future is a rolling thing, especially this week. Just saying

[reflectionx]

I use a crystal ball for future currency rates...and it's wrong most of the time....it was made in Canada.

How does this help op?

[smilingbuddah]

Thanks for all your help

I haven't pulled the money from the investments yet so will wait a little while longer to transfer

I usually rely on our Financial Advisor for this kind of thing,although I figured with all the experience of the TV members on this site I would give it a go here.

S.B.

[Pib]

I use a crystal ball for future currency rates...and it's wrong most of the time....it was made in Canada.

How does this help op?

With all the different opinions (including hopes and delusions) that a person can get from ThaiVisa members, financial websites, news media, etc., use of crystal ball (whether made in Canada or not) in trying to predict the future exchange rate of a currency may be as good as so called expert opinions.

Edited June 13, 2013 by Pib

[market trader]

I am a Canadian also. Yesterday on a wire transfer from Canada I received 30.14 from Bangkok bank. If you want to know where the cdn dollar will be in the future in relation to the baht. Just follow the path of the cdn dollar, U.S. dollar exchange rate. You must understand that around the world Canada is nothing but a backwater economy and is a leader in nothing.

[mjsansai]

It's easier to eat soup with a fork than to make money in foreign exchange.

[PCA]

It's easier to eat soup with a fork than to make money in foreign exchange.

depending on the size of the noodles. Canada can stay quiet as long as it likes, regardless it is leading but rather unspoken. Currency up or down doesn't matter. Go for a horse ride into it's mountains and you'll sense preservation.

[reflectionx]

29.71 from BKK bank now. Seems like the loonie is stuck at 1.017 vs USD, and since the USD lost some ground, the loonie did too. Well in line with my forecast. Of course that might change when then June figures are released in the beginning of July

Btw, a piece of advise - use SCB to transfer CAD. Their TT CAD rate is always at least 0.1 better than BKK bank. As of Friday's closing, it's 29.829. On 50 000 CAD, it's 6000 baht more.

[Tmymaimee]

My feeling is of an impending credit crisis in Thailand due to people overborrowing for consumer loans. Normal Canadian banks only allow 40% of income for a house mortgage that is insured with less than a 20% downpayment.

Thai banks will lend 100% of a car's value to someone with payments representing over 50% of their monthly income. Non insured loans for mobile, high depreciation assets is a recipe for disaster. This is the same scenario with US mortgages that drove the Dow Jones to drop 50% in 1 month.

My thinking is hold off as long as possible, as the baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Any slight rise in Thai interest rates, unemployment or trade deficits and foreclosures on cars and homes will be exponential.

[Issangeorge]

I have been saying for a long time the baht is over valued and yet it seems to go up, not down. One thing I do know though is this time of year the baht always seems high against the dollar. Wait to the end of June or July to change.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 6 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Taggart]

I can remember back in 1995, getting less than 19 Thai baht for the Canadian dollar. Today you're getting about 30. Where it will be in the future? Even the experts can't predict right, so I wouldn't even bother trying.

[yoshiwara]

Forget the predictions and just set your positions eg say you have 30k to change. If the rate below 30 then just change on a weekly expenditure basis, if above 30 then change 10k, if rate above 31 change another 10k and if rate hits 32 change the third lot of 10k or whatever remaining.

[Naam]

My feeling is of an impending credit crisis in Thailand due to people overborrowing for consumer loans. Normal Canadian banks only allow 40% of income for a house mortgage that is insured with less than a 20% downpayment.

Thai banks will lend 100% of a car's value to someone with payments representing over 50% of their monthly income. Non insured loans for mobile, high depreciation assets is a recipe for disaster. This is the same scenario with US mortgages that drove the Dow Jones to drop 50% in 1 month.

My thinking is hold off as long as possible, as the baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Any slight rise in Thai interest rates, unemployment or trade deficits and foreclosures on cars and homes will be exponential.

there's no doubt that the Baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Thaivisa financial eggsburts have been forecasting the collapse since six years

[Pib]

My feeling is of an impending credit crisis in Thailand due to people overborrowing for consumer loans. Normal Canadian banks only allow 40% of income for a house mortgage that is insured with less than a 20% downpayment.

Thai banks will lend 100% of a car's value to someone with payments representing over 50% of their monthly income. Non insured loans for mobile, high depreciation assets is a recipe for disaster. This is the same scenario with US mortgages that drove the Dow Jones to drop 50% in 1 month.

My thinking is hold off as long as possible, as the baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Any slight rise in Thai interest rates, unemployment or trade deficits and foreclosures on cars and homes will be exponential.

there's no doubt that the Baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Thaivisa financial eggsburts have been forecasting the collapse since six years

I agree with Naan...it's prophesy...it will happen!!!....I read so on ThaiVisa.

[Tmymaimee]

My feeling is of an impending credit crisis in Thailand due to people overborrowing for consumer loans. Normal Canadian banks only allow 40% of income for a house mortgage that is insured with less than a 20% downpayment.

Thai banks will lend 100% of a car's value to someone with payments representing over 50% of their monthly income. Non insured loans for mobile, high depreciation assets is a recipe for disaster. This is the same scenario with US mortgages that drove the Dow Jones to drop 50% in 1 month.

My thinking is hold off as long as possible, as the baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Any slight rise in Thai interest rates, unemployment or trade deficits and foreclosures on cars and homes will be exponential.

there's no doubt that the Baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Thaivisa financial eggsburts have been forecasting the collapse since six years

I agree with Naan...it's prophesy...it will happen!!!....I read so on ThaiVisa.

6 years ago Thai banks weren't loading up on highly leveraged consumer loans based on depreciative assets such as vehicles. Financial stocks are already at 2 year lows, with most of that decrease in the past month. The baht is down and sinking further every week. Thailand's growth in the past few years is based on borrowed money that has to be repaid at some point.

Edited June 21, 2013 by Whereustay

[Pib]

Sounds like the financial/banking situation in many western nations.

Sent from my Samsung S4 (GT-I9500)

[reflectionx]

My feeling is of an impending credit crisis in Thailand due to people overborrowing for consumer loans. Normal Canadian banks only allow 40% of income for a house mortgage that is insured with less than a 20% downpayment.

Thai banks will lend 100% of a car's value to someone with payments representing over 50% of their monthly income. Non insured loans for mobile, high depreciation assets is a recipe for disaster. This is the same scenario with US mortgages that drove the Dow Jones to drop 50% in 1 month.

My thinking is hold off as long as possible, as the baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Any slight rise in Thai interest rates, unemployment or trade deficits and foreclosures on cars and homes will be exponential.

there's no doubt that the Baht will collapse in just a matter of time. Thaivisa financial eggsburts have been forecasting the collapse since six years

I agree with Naan...it's prophesy...it will happen!!!....I read so on ThaiVisa.

6 years ago Thai banks weren't loading up on highly leveraged consumer loans based on depreciative assets such as vehicles. Financial stocks are already at 2 year lows, with most of that decrease in the past month. The baht is down and sinking further every week. Thailand's growth in the past few years is based on borrowed money that has to be repaid at some point.

Market selloffs and and local currency dives (due to US$ surge) is worldwide, not limited to Thailand, mostly due to Feds announcements. Your logic is flawed. Read a bit before posting. Although, nobody really takes your oppinion in consideration, so don`t bother reading.

Edited June 21, 2013 by reflectionx

[Eesat]

It's easier to eat soup with a fork than to make money in foreign exchange.

Somebody should tell George Soros!

[reflectionx]

back to topic, the Loonie is lower vs THB now than before the Feds, although stable around 30. Again, it might drastically change at the beginnig of July. If June figures are as good as the May numbers, it will surge against the USD and the THB.

Disappointing news, however, might push it down on par with the Aussie, bringing it down to less than 29 THB.

[Eesat]

Thanks for all your help

I haven't pulled the money from the investments yet so will wait a little while longer to transfer

I usually rely on our Financial Advisor for this kind of thing,although I figured with all the experience of the TV members on this site I would give it a go here.

S.B.

I could give you a lot of reasons why the Loonie will drop against the baht.Asian economy had very little exposure to sub-prime mortgages from US,very little contagion from there,interest rates generally higher attracting direct foreign investment and carry trades,low unemployment,manufacturing sector doing well.Canada's economy closely tied in to the US by Geography if nothing else!

I could also give you the same arguments why the Baht will weaken against the Loonie,credit crunch slowing down Asian economies due to globalisation of markets,Thailand has close business ties with US & threat of winding down quantitative easing is already affecting the Baht adversely,Canada has booming oil industry and had very little exposure to the sub-prime lending mess that caused the credit crunch!

So I'm going to say that if the Loonie doesn't go down against the Baht it will definitely go up!

[reflectionx]

Btw, interesting first media appearance:

http://www.citynews.ca/2013/06/19/consumers-have-done-their-part-for-the-economy-bank-of-canada-governor/

"Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says Canadian consumers did their part for the economy by borrowing the country through the worst recession since the Great Depression and now it is the turn of businesses to show some confidence and start spending."

Finally someone to acknowledge the real problem. I could not agree more, there will be no real growth until companies continue to cut jobs, expences, etc just to pile up on profits that are not reinvested back. This is the main reason why the sh*t hit the fan , and there is no way out until the piled up cash is brought back in the economy.

Hopefully he will be able to tackle this issue.

He is also taking the same direction as the Feds, signaling about rates increases in near future:

"Rather than the sometimes hectoring tone of previous warnings about unsustainable debt levels, Poloz says the bank has “urged homeowners and other borrowers to do the arithmetic” on managing their debts when interest rates return to “more normal” levels at some unspecified future date."

Mortgage rates are already up - a month ago 2.59% fixed for 5 years was avialable in Ontario; now the best rate for the same term is 2.89%.

[Taggart]

Sounds like the financial/banking situation in many western nations.

Sent from my Samsung S4 (GT-I9500)

For those who aren't aware, Canada came through the financial crisis of 2008-2009, pretty well unscathed. The TSX had only one dividend cut in the financial sector, and that was for a life insurance company. The major Canadian banks kept on paying their dividends and started to increase them again over the last couple of years. I haven't looked in the last couple of years, but if there's one thing I've noticed about equities in Thaialnd, the companies don't seem to increase their dividends much, if at all, even from their large banks.

Since we're both retired, my wife and I need all the help we can get to finance our trips to Thailand, and our Canadian dividend stocks came through the crisis for us

As of today, the Canadian dollar is still holding up against the Thai baht, but weakening against the U.S. dollar..

[reflectionx]

Sounds like the financial/banking situation in many western nations.

Sent from my Samsung S4 (GT-I9500)

For those who aren't aware, Canada came through the financial crisis of 2008-2009, pretty well unscathed. The TSX had only one dividend cut in the financial sector, and that was for a life insurance company. The major Canadian banks kept on paying their dividends and started to increase them again over the last couple of years. I haven't looked in the last couple of years, but if there's one thing I've noticed about equities in Thaialnd, the companies don't seem to increase their dividends much, if at all, even from their large banks.

Since we're both retired, my wife and I need all the help we can get to finance our trips to Thailand, and our Canadian dividend stocks came through the crisis for us

As of today, the Canadian dollar is still holding up against the Thai baht, but weakening against the U.S. dollar..

Loonie down to 1.055 USD and 29.5 THB. Markets are wicked after the Feds, waiting for June figures.

On the other hand, weaker Loonie to USD would give a boost to Canada's exports to US, but I don't expect it to last much. It will boost the economy, and the positive news will push it back down to parity.

Edited June 24, 2013 by reflectionx

[yoshiwara]

Sounds like the financial/banking situation in many western nations.

Sent from my Samsung S4 (GT-I9500)

For those who aren't aware, Canada came through the financial crisis of 2008-2009, pretty well unscathed. The TSX had only one dividend cut in the financial sector, and that was for a life insurance company. The major Canadian banks kept on paying their dividends and started to increase them again over the last couple of years. I haven't looked in the last couple of years, but if there's one thing I've noticed about equities in Thaialnd, the companies don't seem to increase their dividends much, if at all, even from their large banks.

Since we're both retired, my wife and I need all the help we can get to finance our trips to Thailand, and our Canadian dividend stocks came through the crisis for us

As of today, the Canadian dollar is still holding up against the Thai baht, but weakening against the U.S. dollar..

Loonie down to 1.055 USD and 29.5 THB. Markets are wicked after the Feds, waiting for June figures.

On the other hand, weaker Loonie to USD would give a boost to Canada's exports to US, but I don't expect it to last much. It will boost the economy, and the positive news will push it back down to parity.

If you have a long-term positive outlook on the Canadian Dollar and it is now $1.05 then suggest an opportunity to buy.