Is Thailand in trouble or not?

[OldChinaHam]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

No you are not being sarcastic, just ironical.

And you are very correct, too.

This same dynamic plays itself out time and time again.

Greece, for example.

The international banks come in a steal the assets of the country which goes into debt too far, assets which rightfully belonging to the citizens of said country.

You might also think of IMF, here.

Huh? The citizens ARE the country, particularly in a country with democratically elected representatives. If they put themselves in a position where they can not make their loan payments they SHOULD forfeit the collateral they pledged to guarantee the loans. They borrowed money and it is their responsibility to pay it back as agreed. No one is stealing their assets, they were forced to use those assets to pay back money that they spent.

My opinion is that if we educate ourselves to better understand what is happening, then we can easily see through the tune you are still singing.

You are arguing the traditional international bank argument, but you fail to clearly describe the dynamics of whole situation from beginning to end.

Just as with Haiti, when they ran out of sugar or rice, some people said it was the fault of the common people.

No, it was the fault of the people who owned the country using the assets which belonged rightfully to the common man.

Just as democracy failed in the US where it does not really represent the will of the people, or the wishes of the people, so democracy has also failed in other places.

There a a very few elite who have managed to get control of countries and operate based on what policies will keep them in power, and those policies which will maximize their wealth, the wealth of their children, and their place in society in the next generation.

We should all become clearer about the ways things work, if we wish to have a chance to make a meaningful positive change.

It is always the same argument,

You need enlightened common people in a country before you get a better government.

The propaganda you repeat here is the very thing which keeps this from happening.

[ExpatJ]

My understanding is that this is not a Thai specific issue- its happening across the board in emerging markets as big investors withdraw funds in expectation of the draw down of QE in the US.

[OldChinaHam]

My understanding is that this is not a Thai specific issue- its happening across the board in emerging markets as big investors withdraw funds in expectation of the draw down of QE in the US.

If we had a slightly more equitable distribution of wealth in our societies around the world, we would all live a much happier life.

And more curbs on a small number of players to keep them operating on a level playing field would go a long way to solving a few basic problems.

After your first billion, it is not a good thing to have these people continue trying for more.

A billion USD provides any idiot with the clout to act like the kings and despots of yore, circumventing the laws that are too little and too late to make any difference in dealing with these flea bags.

Edited September 6, 2013 by OldChinaHam

[historyprof]

Ten years ago was too late.

The real money was made in the crash of the mid 90's.

Real estate at give away prices.

Expats selling up 3 years ago was a mimi bonus but nothing like 97~99.

Said like a true whinging pom. You only made 25% on your money; you could ave' made fifty%.

[jmccarty]

I'm in Thailand and in no trouble. Therefore, Thailand is in no trouble!

[ExpatJ]

My understanding is that this is not a Thai specific issue- its happening across the board in emerging markets as big investors withdraw funds in expectation of the draw down of QE in the US.

If we had a slightly more equitable distribution of wealth in our societies around the world, we would all live a much happier life.

And more curbs on a small number of players to keep them operating on a level playing field would go a long way to solving a few basic problems.

After your first billion, it is not a good thing to have these people continue trying for more.

A billion USD provides any idiot with the clout to act like the kings and despots of yore, circumventing the laws that are too little and too late to make any difference in dealing with these flea bags.

My own opinion is that private companies should be forced/regulated to play a more social welfare type role for its staff and their families by devoting a fixed amount of annual profit to staff benefits. medical etc. If this rule applied to all private sector companies, it would be a level playing field and they couldn't argue that it makes them uncompetitive vis a vis the competition. This could be applied only when the owners of a given company had already secured profits of say XX millions of personal wealth- this would leave in place incentive mechanisms for entrepreneurs who found companies in order to get personally rich.

One thing is for sure- if we keep on under the following system, eventually the billions who dont benefit from this system- especially those in EU, US - are going to rise up and install a communist type- distribute the wealth system- mark my words.

[chiang mai]

A quick look at the currency heatmap helps:

http://www.digitallook.com/heatmap_fx/

EDIT: you'll need to select THB and a one month timeframe.

Edited September 6, 2013 by chiang mai

[Stradavarius37]

The economic expertise on this forum never ceases to amaze me. Playboy billionaires who lead the financial fortunes of empires, yet still find time to post on TV lol

[historyprof]

My understanding is that this is not a Thai specific issue- its happening across the board in emerging markets as big investors withdraw funds in expectation of the draw down of QE in the US.

If we had a slightly more equitable distribution of wealth in our societies around the world, we would all live a much happier life.

And more curbs on a small number of players to keep them operating on a level playing field would go a long way to solving a few basic problems.

After your first billion, it is not a good thing to have these people continue trying for more.

A billion USD provides any idiot with the clout to act like the kings and despots of yore, circumventing the laws that are too little and too late to make any difference in dealing with these flea bags.

My own opinion is that private companies should be forced/regulated to play a more social welfare type role for its staff and their families by devoting a fixed amount of annual profit to staff benefits. medical etc. If this rule applied to all private sector companies, it would be a level playing field and they couldn't argue that it makes them uncompetitive vis a vis the competition. This could be applied only when the owners of a given company had already secured profits of say XX millions of personal wealth- this would leave in place incentive mechanisms for entrepreneurs who found companies in order to get personally rich.

One thing is for sure- if we keep on under the following system, eventually the billions who dont benefit from this system- especially those in EU, US - are going to rise up and install a communist type- distribute the wealth system- mark my words.

Well, they did that in Russia and China. Do you think the majority of people will forget the millions that were killed by Stalin and Mao? What should we mark your words with? Blood?

[NeverSure]

My understanding is that this is not a Thai specific issue- its happening across the board in emerging markets as big investors withdraw funds in expectation of the draw down of QE in the US.

If we had a slightly more equitable distribution of wealth in our societies around the world, we would all live a much happier life.

And more curbs on a small number of players to keep them operating on a level playing field would go a long way to solving a few basic problems.

After your first billion, it is not a good thing to have these people continue trying for more.

A billion USD provides any idiot with the clout to act like the kings and despots of yore, circumventing the laws that are too little and too late to make any difference in dealing with these flea bags.

My own opinion is that private companies should be forced/regulated to play a more social welfare type role for its staff and their families by devoting a fixed amount of annual profit to staff benefits. medical etc. If this rule applied to all private sector companies, it would be a level playing field and they couldn't argue that it makes them uncompetitive vis a vis the competition. This could be applied only when the owners of a given company had already secured profits of say XX millions of personal wealth- this would leave in place incentive mechanisms for entrepreneurs who found companies in order to get personally rich.

One thing is for sure- if we keep on under the following system, eventually the billions who dont benefit from this system- especially those in EU, US - are going to rise up and install a communist type- distribute the wealth system- mark my words.

Distribute the wealth like the do to the more than 1 billion impoverished people in communist China? Or more like the former communist USSR which went broke trying to redistribute wealth?

Your plan to require a business to give x to employees after x target is reached falls flat. The business, upon nearing x, diverts its capital to something else to assure it doesn't reach x. Without a profit incentive, and the ability to keep what he earns, a man won't work hard.

As the old saying goes, "you never got a job from a poor man."

How about 5 billionaires who started life super poor? LINK

See, this is what Thailand is doing that is hurting it. Rice scheme, new home and new car schemes, now maybe a rubber scheme. Pass the wealth around and put the country in deep trouble.

Yes, Thailand is in trouble.

Edited September 6, 2013 by NeverSure

[StreetCowboy]

Not wanting to veer off-topic, but it was the arms race that bankrupted the USSR.

Like Glasgow Rangers, they were trying to compete with the big boys, but didn't have the income to support it - because their economy was stifled by centralised planning, political interference and lack of a market economy. If they had opened themselves up to more competition, then that would have improved their own competitiveness and enhanced their productivity - and the same thing goes for the USSR

SC

[OldChinaHam]

Not wanting to veer off-topic, but it was the arms race that bankrupted the USSR.

Like Glasgow Rangers, they were trying to compete with the big boys, but didn't have the income to support it - because their economy was stifled by centralised planning, political interference and lack of a market economy. If they had opened themselves up to more competition, then that would have improved their own competitiveness and enhanced their productivity - and the same thing goes for the USSR

SC

Definitely not true for the Taiwan economy.

This economy prospered by leaps and bounds precisely due to the protectionist policies of the government.

As did Korea.

What you are saying, I think, is what the US GOV wants to see happen.

They want smaller economies opened wide so that the banks can go in and rape and pillage, so that these poorer economies become banana republics like some in Central and South America.

The International Banks, and international companies wish to propagate these myths so that they can continue their unbridled raping and pillaging of places like Haiti, another example.

I say F them, the elite power hungry bastards who are fking up our lives as well.

There are too many examples of this over the years and throughout history to require any further substantiation here.

Either you know it, or you deny it, but you cannot change the reality of it.

Sorry.

Edited September 6, 2013 by OldChinaHam

[NoshowJones]

Not wanting to veer off-topic, but it was the arms race that bankrupted the USSR.

Like Glasgow Rangers, they were trying to compete with the big boys, but didn't have the income to support it - because their economy was stifled by centralised planning, political interference and lack of a market economy. If they had opened themselves up to more competition, then that would have improved their own competitiveness and enhanced their productivity - and the same thing goes for the USSR

SC

Well said about Rangers StreetCowboy, they also paid for their 'nine in a row', they got what they deserved. Sorry for going off topic Mr Mod, but I couldn't resist it.

[infinity11]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

No you are not being sarcastic, just ironical.

And you are very correct, too.

This same dynamic plays itself out time and time again.

Greece, for example.

The international banks come in a steal the assets of the country which goes into debt too far, assets which rightfully belonging to the citizens of said country.

You might also think of IMF, here.

But was it not Iceland which balked?

And then told most of the lending companies to go F themselves?

Of course, all countries in debt should band together and tell the International Banks to go F themselves.

That would be one step for men, and one giant step to get the pushers off the back of the people.

Debt is the drug these banks are pushing.

Is this not the basic core problem everywhere and the reason there are wars???

I read on the internet that only n korea and iran do NOT have private central banks that pull the strings of the govt.

And that is why we want to destroy both countries?

After that the fiances of each and every country is in the hands of PRIVATE bankers and families?

Ans after that i shutter to think...

[infinity11]

The only really negative economic information; bubbles and things like that are presented on Thai Visa by people who have most of their assets in currencies other than the Thai Baht.

On the other hand, I've always thought it good advice, to 'never bring into Thailand money which you're not prepared to lose'.

I've known many people who found the truth of that out too late !

The bulk of our own assets will continue to remain offshore, for tax & political-risk reasons, we'll accept the consequences if the Baht goes to even-greater heights, despite a borrow-&-spend socialist-government and the unwanted event-to-come.

What about 800k in the bank for visa?

Or is this a catch/scam too?

I am deadly serious.

[giggles]

the thai apologists wearing rose tinted glasses will always try to trump the realistic doomsters by any means at their disposal

[ABCer]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

well i know booze has just gone up ,but as the govt said ,this is not to raise extra tax but to stop people drinking to much ,and i for one believe them 100% dont you?

I really love a true 100% believer when I see one, Claudius. I also believe that my Gov't makes people pay about $18 for a packet of cigarettes just to curb smoking, caring for their health.

In the same old good country of mine 1 L of soda water costs the same as 1 L of petrol. I believe the Gov't cares about people's kidneys or something like that. As I said, it's good to believe!

[chiang mai]

It seems as though the phrase of the year is "Thai apologists", everyone seems to have added it to their vocabulary and they seem to be everywhere!

[AnotherOneAmerican]

The only really negative economic information; bubbles and things like that are presented on Thai Visa by people who have most of their assets in currencies other than the Thai Baht.

On the other hand, I've always thought it good advice, to 'never bring into Thailand money which you're not prepared to lose'.

I prefer to view it as "Never bring into Thailand, money which you're not prepared to spend on a Thai lady"

Spending it can be lots of fun.

Do sensible people ever really move all their assets into banana republics/third world countries/developing nations/tin pot dictatorships?

Edited September 6, 2013 by AnotherOneAmerican

[chiang mai]

Those of us who moved assets into this "banana republic" in 2005 and went on to buy our cars and condo's with those funds realised a substantial profit subsequently, not only did the assets increase in value but the subsequent currency gain added over 40% profit and without being taxed.

[GuestHouse]

Ten years ago was too late.

The real money was made in the crash of the mid 90's.

Real estate at give away prices.

Expats selling up 3 years ago was a mimi bonus but nothing like 97~99.

Said like a true whinging pom. You only made 25% on your money; you could ave' made fifty%.

Truth is I actually made over 300% across the purchases I made during the crash (and in the period when banks were off loading liabilities).

It wasn't the Bht exchange rate that brought the opportunities, it was the fact that the banks were awash with non performing loans, land, houses, apartments at give away prices.

In 1999, Thai farmer bank alone had over a hundred pages of properties for sale on their website (30 properties a page) and all at prices a fraction of what the same properties had been bought for and way way cheaper than they are trading at now.

[GuestHouse]

The financial trouble that the Thai economy faces is not one that is going to drive the Bht to the cheap rates we saw post 97 - if that's what you are hoping for to help your retirement/life in Thailand out then I'd make another plan.

The problems Thailand face are growing government debt/mismanagement of public funds and massively growing personal debt - coupled with the leaching of land from cash poor land rich Thais.

Those around in 97 will remember that when the economy crashed, vast numbers of Thais simply went back to the farm.

The farm has since been sold or lost to money lenders.

Open your eyes and look around, the one car policy is driving debt, credit cards are being handed out like sweeties, investment in same same box like properties that nobody wants to rent.

A massive personal credit bubble is swelling up - personal debt problems are common place and becoming more common.

Government policies are promising things will get better, things are not getting better for the vast majority of Thais.

And it is on the collapse of expectations that social problems start to arise.

These problems are not going to make your Bht cheaper, they are going to make life a lot harder for most Thai people and when that happens life here will change too.

Don't expect it to be for the better.

[historyprof]

A massive personal credit bubble is swelling up - personal debt problems are common place and becoming more common.

Link please. Everyone I know is coming up roses.

[OldChinaHam]

The financial trouble that the Thai economy faces is not one that is going to drive the Bht to the cheap rates we saw post 97 - if that's what you are hoping for to help your retirement/life in Thailand out then I'd make another plan.

The problems Thailand face are growing government debt/mismanagement of public funds and massively growing personal debt - coupled with the leaching of land from cash poor land rich Thais.

Those around in 97 will remember that when the economy crashed, vast numbers of Thais simply went back to the farm.

The farm has since been sold or lost to money lenders.

Open your eyes and look around, the one car policy is driving debt, credit cards are being handed out like sweeties, investment in same same box like properties that nobody wants to rent.

A massive personal credit bubble is swelling up - personal debt problems are common place and becoming more common.

Government policies are promising things will get better, things are not getting better for the vast majority of Thais.

And it is on the collapse of expectations that social problems start to arise.

These problems are not going to make your Bht cheaper, they are going to make life a lot harder for most Thai people and when that happens life here will change too.

Don't expect it to be for the better.

I find it interesting what you say about farms being lost.

Is this really true?

And, what percent have actually been lost?

I do not doubt what you say may be true.

I just find it interesting and would like to know more.

[historyprof]

Ten years ago was too late.

The real money was made in the crash of the mid 90's.

Real estate at give away prices.

Expats selling up 3 years ago was a mimi bonus but nothing like 97~99.

Said like a true whinging pom. You only made 25% on your money; you could ave' made fifty%.

Truth is I actually made over 300% across the purchases I made during the crash (and in the period when banks were off loading liabilities).

It wasn't the Bht exchange rate that brought the opportunities, it was the fact that the banks were awash with non performing loans, land, houses, apartments at give away prices.

In 1999, Thai farmer bank alone had over a hundred pages of properties for sale on their website (30 properties a page) and all at prices a fraction of what the same properties had been bought for and way way cheaper than they are trading at now.

So because I only made 25% on my money and not 300% I was too late?

A 25% return is serious money and better than 99% of the real people (not internet posters) have made on most investments.

Calling 25% return a mini bonus is just plain silly and rather insulting.

Now lets have a show of hands all of you boys who are making more than 25% a year ROI?

[historyprof]

The financial trouble that the Thai economy faces is not one that is going to drive the Bht to the cheap rates we saw post 97 - if that's what you are hoping for to help your retirement/life in Thailand out then I'd make another plan.

The problems Thailand face are growing government debt/mismanagement of public funds and massively growing personal debt - coupled with the leaching of land from cash poor land rich Thais.

Those around in 97 will remember that when the economy crashed, vast numbers of Thais simply went back to the farm.

The farm has since been sold or lost to money lenders.

Open your eyes and look around, the one car policy is driving debt, credit cards are being handed out like sweeties, investment in same same box like properties that nobody wants to rent.

A massive personal credit bubble is swelling up - personal debt problems are common place and becoming more common.

Government policies are promising things will get better, things are not getting better for the vast majority of Thais.

And it is on the collapse of expectations that social problems start to arise.

These problems are not going to make your Bht cheaper, they are going to make life a lot harder for most Thai people and when that happens life here will change too.

Don't expect it to be for the better.

I find it interesting what you say about farms being lost.

Is this really true?

And, what percent have actually been lost?

I do not doubt what you say may be true.

I just find it interesting and would like to know more.

Psssst, ask for a link.

[rgs2001uk]

The financial trouble that the Thai economy faces is not one that is going to drive the Bht to the cheap rates we saw post 97 - if that's what you are hoping for to help your retirement/life in Thailand out then I'd make another plan.

The problems Thailand face are growing government debt/mismanagement of public funds and massively growing personal debt - coupled with the leaching of land from cash poor land rich Thais.

Those around in 97 will remember that when the economy crashed, vast numbers of Thais simply went back to the farm.

The farm has since been sold or lost to money lenders.

Open your eyes and look around, the one car policy is driving debt, credit cards are being handed out like sweeties, investment in same same box like properties that nobody wants to rent.

A massive personal credit bubble is swelling up - personal debt problems are common place and becoming more common.

Government policies are promising things will get better, things are not getting better for the vast majority of Thais.

And it is on the collapse of expectations that social problems start to arise.

These problems are not going to make your Bht cheaper, they are going to make life a lot harder for most Thai people and when that happens life here will change too.

Don't expect it to be for the better.

I find it interesting what you say about farms being lost.

Is this really true?

And, what percent have actually been lost?

I do not doubt what you say may be true.

I just find it interesting and would like to know more.

Everything GH says is true, another thing not mentioned is, many farmers had no farm to go back to.

Many thought the construction boom was going to last forever, hence sold their farm to come and work in construction in Bkk, when the bubble burst there was no place to go back to.

He is also spot on about properties, my mrs bought a condo for 1/5 th of the price it would have cost her a few years earlier.

Sorry I have no links, its one of those things, if you were here at the time you would remember.

I remember the Bangkok Post being full of adverts of buyers flying into to Thailand to buy everything, boats airplanes etc.

The garage sales in Thong Lor is something many choose to forget.

The BP used to have on page 2 a list of certain people where all their assets were listed, loved how much of the wealth was classified as "buddha amulets"

Right now a certain family member working for the Gov't borrowed 300k baht, pay it back at 3k per month for the next ten years, she is now pregnant and its doubtful if the loan will ever be repaid.

[GuestHouse]

A massive personal credit bubble is swelling up - personal debt problems are common place and becoming more common.

Link please. Everyone I know is coming up roses.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE97513Z20130806?irpc=932

"At 8.97 trillion baht ($287 billion) as of March, outstanding household debt was up 78 percent from 2008. It rose an average 13.6 percent a year between 2008 and 2012, twice the pace at which incomes grew. The ratio of debt payments to monthly income for Thai households was 33.8 percent in the first quarter, up from 29.6 percent in 2011, central bank data showed."

Perhaps everyone you know is planting their roses in a pile of debt manure - the'll grow for sure, but eventually the stink gets too much.

[elektrified]

where do you see cause for concern?

USD vs. THB is irrelevant to what is happening here.

[klubex99]

Theoretically it is in trouble but do not worry!

Every time when a country is in trouble, the owners of the country come up with quick solutions to make the problem dissappear: higher taxes, higher prices etc..by doing so they put the burden on the citizens and sooner or later by squeezing the ......out of them, order will be restored.

This phase has started already, just think about the increasing gasoline prices and the list is endless. Make no mistake, I am not being sarcastic. But that is what is happening.

Sent from one of my devices using the internet

No you are not being sarcastic, just ironical.

And you are very correct, too.

This same dynamic plays itself out time and time again.

Greece, for example.

The international banks come in a steal the assets of the country which goes into debt too far, assets which rightfully belonging to the citizens of said country.

You might also think of IMF, here.

But was it not Iceland which balked?

And then told most of the lending companies to go F themselves?

Of course, all countries in debt should band together and tell the International Banks to go F themselves.

That would be one step for men, and one giant step to get the pushers off the back of the people.

Debt is the drug these banks are pushing.

No... It was Iceland that told all foreign depositors in Icelandic banks to go F themselves.

Which personally I found awesome, they soon relented when in turn, the UK froze all Icelandic owned accounts in their banks. Iceland Frozen Food Company being one.

But it was great for one thing. It totally exposed lots of UK councils who had squirreled money away into Icelandic bank accounts (for a rainy day) while each year they plead poverty and demanded more and more from the council tax payer. I was pissed off when they got their money back.... I so wanted them to lose it. the bastards.