Changing China Set to Shake World Economy, Again

[onionluke]

Hong Kong has been flooded , over recent years with mainland women giving birth at public hospitals ,arriving over the border at the last minute and heading to an emergency department . These children, born from mainlanders who have enough money to break immigration rules and want a HK id card for their children, do now swamp the educational system . These children have all the rights local children have to school and medical care . Now there is an outcry from working class HK citizens as they see their kinder garden , school and recreation facilities get handed over to mainlanders , who believe it is their right , without having paid tax or worked for the benefit of the special administrative region. This is called cultural imperialism .

[LawrenceChee]

Hong Kong has been flooded , over recent years with mainland women giving birth at public hospitals ,arriving over the border at the last minute and heading to an emergency department . These children, born from mainlanders who have enough money to break immigration rules and want a HK id card for their children, do now swamp the educational system . These children have all the rights local children have to school and medical care . Now there is an outcry from working class HK citizens as they see their kinder garden , school and recreation facilities get handed over to mainlanders , who believe it is their right , without having paid tax or worked for the benefit of the special administrative region. This is called cultural imperialism .

I offer a different view than cultural imperialism. It's the Chinese pragmatic and practical approach to problem solving.

Giving birth in Hong Kong gives a way around the one child policy and also in future a passport that has very little visa requirements.

As most western states want to support HK as an autonomous zone, it also allows the Chinese a quick way / loophole to move their kids to Canada and USA of it dictates

So if moving down the border saves money and gives your child more options would you not do the same as most EU membership allows people to ?

Anyhow this practice is now curbed after feedback from the HK residents and from 2013, you need a HK husband before you are guaranteed residency rights. Here the link to the latest update.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-17838280

[LawrenceChee]

Oops auto type error so I better correct before the flames arrive

I mean it allows them a loophole / back door to move to the USA / Canada if the situation dictates

:-)

[onionluke]

You said it Lawrence . It is systematic . I believe in freedom of movement too . It is just against the law for most and a privilege for a few . Hong Kong is screwed at the moment .

[SinglePot]

A lot of Chinese mainlanders go to HK for a lot of things.

I wonder why.

On the subject of one child policy: when will the booming economy be in such great shape that ordinary PRC people will be able to have more than one child if they wish.

Bit tricky currently if you are one of the 13 percent who live on less than 40 baht a day.

[LawrenceChee]

You said it Lawrence . It is systematic . I believe in freedom of movement too . It is just against the law for most and a privilege for a few . Hong Kong is screwed at the moment .

I agree with you on this ...in Asia as I travel and work through many countries, this seems to be such a normality that most are not afforded the privileges of a few ...one can help a few along the way and do our part if time / finances allow.

[LawrenceChee]

A lot of Chinese mainlanders go to HK for a lot of things.

I wonder why.

On the subject of one child policy: when will the booming economy be in such great shape that ordinary PRC people will be able to have more than one child if they wish.

Bit tricky currently if you are one of the 13 percent who live on less than 40 baht a day.

- Disneyland

- Milk Powder

- Visa Applications to European / USA

- Shopping (no sales tax and no import tax on luxury goods)

- Eating good quality dim sum

I am not sure increasing the population would really help stretch resources ...already people on TV are starting to complain about the bus loads of tourists in Chiang Mai

[onionluke]

A mother from Henan province slept outside a nursery school in Sheung Shui , waiting for the enrolment form to be distributed to the lucky first , from Saturday to Monday . When asked why , she replied my children need to go to school too .

[Scott]

The thread is starting to stray off-topic. This thread is about China's effect on World Economics.

Simply bashing anything and everything Chinese will not be tolerated. Please stay on topic. If you have nothing to contribute, then please don't post.

[onionluke]

The stark realities of China's economic day , today and tomorrow will touch all sorts from all over the place .

[LawrenceChee]

Just announced today that china will sign a 3 year currency swap deal with EU worth 350 billion yuan. Has a positive bearing on German / France which is increasing its trade volumes with China

This is right after a renewal of a currency swap deal with Indonesian announced at the recently concluded APEC meeting

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/236651ca-3185-11e3-817c-00144feab7de.html#axzz2hKTXH0aX

[boomerangutang]

Premier Li continues to make commitments to peace in the South China Sea with the DOC and also proposing a hotline for its member nations to minimize tensions, incidents and disputes over miscommunications. It has also proposed a treaty of friendliness that enhances China's desire to engage the area peacefully and has no military intentions. It is being examined by ASEAN leaders on the salient points.

re; the S. China Sea: China is doing all it can to try and gloss over its blatant land grab there. Everything, except what it should do: Respect the rightful ownership of those islands. Oh, and China doesn't want the issue to go to an international court. Of course not, because an Int'l Court would go with the reasonable mandate that all countries should follow maritime laws.

One note about Hong Kong: According to signed treaties from the end of the 19th century, the center of the territory (up to Boundary Street) wasn't required to get given to China. Maggie Thatcher gave in, but didn't have to give it all away in 1997. source Ok, that's now water under the bridge, but I wouldn't doubt that at least some Honk Kongers wish the Brits had hung tough, and stuck with the wording of the treaty.

[onionluke]

Premier Li continues to make commitments to peace in the South China Sea with the DOC and also proposing a hotline for its member nations to minimize tensions, incidents and disputes over miscommunications. It has also proposed a treaty of friendliness that enhances China's desire to engage the area peacefully and has no military intentions. It is being examined by ASEAN leaders on the salient points.

re; the S. China Sea: China is doing all it can to try and gloss over its blatant land grab there. Everything, except what it should do: Respect the rightful ownership of those islands. Oh, and China doesn't want the issue to go to an international court. Of course not, because an Int'l Court would go with the reasonable mandate that all countries should follow maritime laws.

One note about Hong Kong: According to signed treaties from the end of the 19th century, the center of the territory (up to Boundary Street) wasn't required to get given to China. Maggie Thatcher gave in, but didn't have to give it all away in 1997. source Ok, that's now water under the bridge, but I wouldn't doubt that at least some Honk Kongers wish the Brits had hung tough, and stuck with the wording of the treaty.

There are some flying a colonial flag , poor show I say .

[SinglePot]

A lot of Chinese mainlanders go to HK for a lot of things.

I wonder why.

On the subject of one child policy: when will the booming economy be in such great shape that ordinary PRC people will be able to have more than one child if they wish.

Bit tricky currently if you are one of the 13 percent who live on less than 40 baht a day.

- Disneyland

- Milk Powder

- Visa Applications to European / USA

- Shopping (no sales tax and no import tax on luxury goods)

- Eating good quality dim sum

I am not sure increasing the population would really help stretch resources ...already people on TV are starting to complain about the bus loads of tourists in Chiang Mai

You miss or evade my point.

When will China's economy be robust enough that the CCP don't need a government enforced population containment program?

Edited October 11, 2013 by SinglePot

[SinglePot]

The stark realities of China's economic day , today and tomorrow will touch all sorts from all over the place .

Yep.

Pragmatism is a very mercenary approach to the World. There is no faith in China, just the faith of the Yuan.

[LawrenceChee]

That's a hard one to answer ...not trying to evade the question.

What is considered robust, what is considered good economy ? What provision will be enough and at what rate of economic growth would this be sustainable without crippling the future generations like the current European pension programs ?

China is not the only country with such a program...many will be surprised to find out that even prosperous Singapore once had a "stop at 2" campaign in the 70s/80s ...it worked so well now the present government is dishing out money and all sorts if you would give birth to try to reverse the trend.

Most developed countries has a birth rate of less than 1.4 , can the world afford a china with families as big as 3-5 children ?

At that population growth rate, would the consumption of resources be over-stretched and china be indebted to the nations next to it instead of being properly a and helping out ?

Like I said ...I can't look into the crystal ball and think of an answer. Sorry.

[SinglePot]

That's a hard one to answer ...not trying to evade the question.

What is considered robust, what is considered good economy ? What provision will be enough and at what rate of economic growth would this be sustainable without crippling the future generations like the current European pension programs ?

China is not the only country with such a program...many will be surprised to find out that even prosperous Singapore once had a "stop at 2" campaign in the 70s/80s ...it worked so well now the present government is dishing out money and all sorts if you would give birth to try to reverse the trend.

Most developed countries has a birth rate of less than 1.4 , can the world afford a china with families as big as 3-5 children ?

At that population growth rate, would the consumption of resources be over-stretched and china be indebted to the nations next to it instead of being properly a and helping out ?

Like I said ...I can't look into the crystal ball and think of an answer. Sorry.

Difficult to predict when the lightning might strike the shithouse then.

[boomerangutang]

Though I often knock Chinese policies, I am ok with the '1 family, one child' policy. Sure there are problems, particularly with girl babies getting aborted, but at least it's a policy dealing with a giant population. Anything reasonable - to lessen the rapid growth of human numbers anywhere - is appreciated. Our species is already 10 to 30 times greater than the planet's carrying capacity, depending on whom you ask. It spells misery or doom for most other species. If Chinese could somehow quit their fixation for only having male babies, ....but that's about as likely as Chinese quitting their archaic beliefs that ingesting body parts of fierce animals will magically make their peters hard.

[folium]

Though I often knock Chinese policies, I am ok with the '1 family, one child' policy. Sure there are problems, particularly with girl babies getting aborted, but at least it's a policy dealing with a giant population. Anything reasonable - to lessen the rapid growth of human numbers anywhere - is appreciated. Our species is already 10 to 30 times greater than the planet's carrying capacity, depending on whom you ask. It spells misery or doom for most other species. If Chinese could somehow quit their fixation for only having male babies, ....but that's about as likely as Chinese quitting their archaic beliefs that ingesting body parts of fierce animals will magically make their peters hard.

Strange that the one aspect of PRC policy that you approve of is One Child Policy (OCP).

The wan, xi, shao (translates as later, longer, fewer; later first child, longer intervals between births, fewer babies) policy of the 1970's, plus a collapse in infant mortality from 227/1000 births to 53, increasing urbanization and a change in the view of a child as a liability rather than an asset in financial terms, together these factors saw a dramatic drop in fertility rates (the likely number of babies born per woman during her reproductive years, a far more important factor compared to birth rates which are just an annual snap shot) well before the phased, and never complete introduction, of OCP in 1979-81.

A comparison with dear old Thailand )see below) also underlines the point that OCP was not only too late but also probably unecessary as if people are given the means and education to make their own reproductive decisions a drop in fertility rates is a common result. This has been seen across the world as an integral part of demographic transition.

http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:THA:CHN&ifdim=region&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false

Thanks to OCP China will be the first country in the world to have travelled the whole spectrum of demographic transition from a high Birth Rate/Death Rate scenario to one where Death Rates exceed Birth Rates and the population thus shrinks without becoming a wealthy country first. The ageing population, diminishing economically active population, the gender imbalance (though this is true throughout Asia and into the Caucasus with some countries far worse than PRC), and where the rich just pay the fines and have the kids, will all in their different ways present enormous challenges in the future.

The forced abortions, sterilizations, snooping and coercion that have all been hallmarks of a quota-driven OCP mentality are a world apart from Thailand which has achieved a more rapid drop in fertility rates with little of the grief.

Beware of what you wish for if it comes too soon plus the ubiquitous law of unintended consequences.

[SinglePot]

China is a third world nation that thinks it is marvellous.

It's not.

[Scott]

Troll post and replies deleted.

[Publicus]

China is a third world nation that thinks it is marvellous.

It's not.

I doubt China really cares what you think. A 3rd world nation's economy collapsing would have very little impact on the rest of the world. China's economy collapsing would be devastating to most other countries.

Frist, Second, Third world titles mean nothing and are of no relevance to what is reality.

In all the international organizations Beijing always claims and argues it is a developing economy, given its GDP per capita is around USD $6000. Technically speaking, that would be correct, and organizations that are international or regional speak exclusively technically. Yet in the CCP-PRC 700,000,000 people live on USD $5 a day or less, while a number of others in the urban centers range from $7000 to $12000 annually.

Yet what you said is true, i.e., when the CCP-PRC economy crashes, and stays crashed, nations around the globe will have to make sudden and radical adjustments to their economies, financial systems, trade and trading partners. (Approximately 80% of US exports go to Canada and 80% of Canadian exports go to the US, so there won't have to be much adjusting made by either.)

Still, as I've posted to this thread, the CCP-PRC collapse factor is being mitigated by other countries as FDI and other foreign capital continue to flee the CCP-PRC, the past two years especially, but on balance since 2008.

Things will get tough for a while, yeah, but not too much for too long as governments and investors globally do see the proverbial handwriting on the wall concerning the coming crash and already are making adjustments and preparations.

India is another developing economy that has similar GDP per capita disparagy and has the same culture of corruption as does China, but India is neither a command economy nor a political dictatorship - no one sees a collapse either imminent or on the horizon as nearly everyone does see for the CCP-PRC.

First, Second, Third world titles are in fact post-Cold War obsolete.

For some time now we speak of economies that are advanced, developed, developing, less developing. I'm speaking of economies, not states.

[folium]

China is a third world nation that thinks it is marvellous.

It's not.

I doubt China really cares what you think. A 3rd world nation's economy collapsing would have very little impact on the rest of the world. China's economy collapsing would be devastating to most other countries.

Frist, Second, Third world titles mean nothing and are of no relevance to what is reality.

In all the international organizations Beijing always claims and argues it is a developing economy, given its GDP per capita is around USD $6000. Technically speaking, that would be correct, and organizations that are international or regional speak exclusively technically. Yet in the CCP-PRC 700,000,000 people live on USD $5 a day or less, while a number of others in the urban centers range from $7000 to $12000 annually.

Yet what you said is true, i.e., when the CCP-PRC economy crashes, and stays crashed, nations around the globe will have to make sudden and radical adjustments to their economies, financial systems, trade and trading partners. (Approximately 80% of US exports go to Canada and 80% of Canadian exports go to the US, so there won't have to be much adjusting made by either.)

Still, as I've posted to this thread, the CCP-PRC collapse factor is being mitigated by other countries as FDI and other foreign capital continue to flee the CCP-PRC, the past two years especially, but on balance since 2008.

Things will get tough for a while, yeah, but not too much for too long as governments and investors globally do see the proverbial handwriting on the wall concerning the coming crash and already are making adjustments and preparations.

India is another developing economy that has similar GDP per capita disparagy and has the same culture of corruption as does China, but India is neither a command economy nor a political dictatorship - no one sees a collapse either imminent or on the horizon as nearly everyone does see for the CCP-PRC.

First, Second, Third world titles are in fact post-Cold War obsolete.

For some time now we speak of economies that are advanced, developed, developing, less developing. I'm speaking of economies, not states.

Pub

Sorry to rain on your parade but....

Some of your stats are way off-beam

GDP per capita (PPP) for PRC (excluding HK & Macau) is $9300 for 2012

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html

In terms of poverty, absolute poverty is normally classed as <$1.25/day and China has approx 13 million people (ie around 10% of the population) at this level. By comparison India has over 30% population (c. 360 million people) at this level and over a billion at under $5 day. Check out the link below for all sorts of fun comparisons, stats etc

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/CHN

Re world trade, while 78% of Canada's exports do indeed go to the US, the US exports to Canada are only 19% of the total (not surprisingly given Canada's relatively small population & hence market)

In 2011 the US share of global merchandise exports was 8.1% , China (+HK) was 12.9%

In 2011 the US share of global merchandise imports was 12.3%, China (+HK) was 12.3%

China was the #4 destination for US exports at 8.8% of the total in 2011

China was the #1 source for US imports at 18.9% of the total in 2011

Implosion in China will not be good news for anyone.

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2012_e/its2012_e.pdf

Re FDI

In 2012 PRC was the leading recipient of FDI globally with an 18% share totalling $253 billion, the US came in at second with $175bn. China's inward FDI rose 11% 2011-2012 and has risen every year in the past decade with the exception of 2008-09.

http://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/FDI%20in%20figures.pdf

Re classifications

there are all sorts of different ways of classifying the economic status and more of countries, HDI, GDP, even a Happiness Index (Gross National Happiness) devised in Bhutan but tended to overlook that country's oppression of the minority Hindus!

The World Bank classifies by Gross National Income (GNI) with Low Income, Lower Middle, Upper Middle and Higher Income countries. India is just in the Lower Middle Income bracket with a 2012 GNI of $1530, China is in the Upper Middle Income zone on $5680, ahead of Thailand on $5210.

http://data.worldbank.org/news/new-country-classifications

That's quite enough stats for now folks....!

[SinglePot]

"In terms of poverty, absolute poverty is normally classed as <$1.25/day and China has approx 13 million people (ie around 10% of the population) at this level."

Population of China is over 1.3 billion. Not 130 million.

13 percent ( near on 180 million) live on equivalent of 1.25 US dollar.

[folium]

"In terms of poverty, absolute poverty is normally classed as <$1.25/day and China has approx 13 million people (ie around 10% of the population) at this level."

Population of China is over 1.3 billion. Not 130 million.

13 percent ( near on 180 million) live on equivalent of 1.25 US dollar.

Me bad! Thanks for pointing out the missing 0.

Actually working out poverty levels is a tricky business as it all depends where you draw the line, the relative value of currency, inflation rate etc. See below:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2013/02/chinas-poor

Bottom line though poverty in China is being brought down at a fair clip. The same sadly cannot be said for India. It does not mean that China is any form of workers paradise, but the shambles in India is a disgrace and a betrayal of its people.

[Publicus]

The CCP starting in 2010 decided to use PPP per capita data instead of GDP per capita data because PPP data almost always are a greater amount, the higher figure. This shift was precipitated because the real economic slowdown of the CCP-PRC economy had begun to be felt by ordinary households, so the CCP needed to present its sheeple with better looking data to try to convince the people that things weren't getting to be as bad as they actually were.

PPP is an entirely different measurement than is GDP because while GDP per capita is basically simple division, PPP per capita, which otherwise has validity, involves several factors, to include a great deal of relativity and some weighting, while simultaneously maintaining, of all things, a stable base line. This is confusing enough to the ordinary PRChinese to sufficiently neutralize any real or effective questioning of the CCP's sudden switch, not to mention any criticism of its bogus motives and its purposes of evasion and duplicity.

I reiterate that governments and investors globally are factoring into their economic, financial and trade activity the inevitable crash of the CCP's system of command and corruption economics and finance. The global realization came earlier this year that the CCP's economic miracle was in fact a mirage (assuming of course there might be a difference between the two). Realization is always a turning point, and this turning point has no point of any return.

Most of your data are well and good, but the fact remains the CCP's command and corrupt systems of economics and finance are collapsing as we discuss this, and the world knows it. Preparations are being made. I certainly don't question the validity of your data from the OECD, the WTO, the XYZ and all the rest of your cited organizations. I do however reiterate adjustments will have to be made and the world by now knows and recognizes the fact and are taking steps in this regard.

I will focus on one point of your post where the data need closer scrutiny, which is FDI. The FDI data from Beijing - and everyone knows about data from the CCP in Beijing - are not only cooked, they are fried to a charcoal crisp. You may really want to read the article that follows:

Fake Foreign Investment Pushes Chinese Economy to Brink

Illicit capital outflows in the trillions, fake foreign investment and real estate speculation fueled by corruption and money laundering have driven the Chinese economy to the brink of collapse, experts say.

Since its economic reforms in the late 1970’s, China has relied heavily on foreign investment to pump up its GDP.

But today, massive capital that has been drained out of China through illicit outflows is often invested back into China, masquerading as foreign direct investment (FDI). (emphasis added)

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/3902-fake-foreign-investment-pushes-chinese-economy-to-brink/

Edited October 12, 2013 by Publicus

[folium]

The CCP starting in 2010 decided to use PPP per capita data instead of GDP per capita data because PPP data almost always are a greater amount, the higher figure. This shift was precipitated because the real economic slowdown of the CCP-PRC economy had begun to be felt by ordinary households, so the CCP needed to present its sheeple with better looking data to try to convince the people that things weren't getting to be as bad as they actually were.

PPP is an entirely different measurement than is GDP because while GDP per capita is basically simple division, PPP per capita, which otherwise has validity, involves several factors, to include a great deal of relativity and some weighting, while simultaneously maintaining, of all things, a stable base line. This is confusing enough to the ordinary PRChinese to sufficiently neutralize any real or effective questioning of the CCP's sudden switch, not to mention any criticism of its bogus motives and its purposes of evasion and duplicity.

I reiterate that governments and investors globally are factoring into their economic, financial and trade activity the inevitable crash of the CCP's system of command and corruption economics and finance. The global realization came earlier this year that the CCP's economic miracle was in fact a mirage (assuming of course there might be a difference between the two). Realization is always a turning point, and this turning point has no point of any return.

Most of your data are well and good, but the fact remains the CCP's command and corrupt systems of economics and finance are collapsing as we discuss this, and the world knows it. Preparations are being made. I certainly don't question the validity of your data from the OECD, the WTO, the XYZ and all the rest of your cited organizations. I do however reiterate adjustments will have to be made and the world by now knows and recognizes the fact and are taking steps in this regard.

I will focus on one point of your post where the data need closer scrutiny, which is FDI. The FDI data from Beijing - and everyone knows about data from the CCP in Beijing - are not only cooked, they are fried to a charcoal crisp. You may really want to read the article that follows:

Fake Foreign Investment Pushes Chinese Economy to Brink

Illicit capital outflows in the trillions, fake foreign investment and real estate speculation fueled by corruption and money laundering have driven the Chinese economy to the brink of collapse, experts say.

Since its economic reforms in the late 1970’s, China has relied heavily on foreign investment to pump up its GDP.

But today, massive capital that has been drained out of China through illicit outflows is often invested back into China, masquerading as foreign direct investment (FDI). (emphasis added)

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/3902-fake-foreign-investment-pushes-chinese-economy-to-brink/

Pub

You are in danger of becoming a Steely Han at this rate!!

Any reputable organization/data source uses GDP/capita (PPP) as it is not misleading but a truer reflection of relative wealth. For different variations on this theme the "delicious" Big Mac Index or more recently the I-Pad Index achieve similar results.

Unless you are running a serious short position on China perhaps you are in danger of Sinophobia clouding your better judgement.

While certainly no saint/genius the author of the piece below is worth listening to:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/why-china-will-disappoint-the-pessimists-yet-again.html

How about this double header?

Which will happen first? Which will happen last?

1. A non-US team wins the "World Series"
2. England wins the World Cup (football, or soccer if you insist)
3. Obama is impeached
4. China's economy implodes and the CCP dissolves
5. A woman becomes US president
6. A woman becomes Pope

[Publicus]

The real data difference for the CCP-PRC in 2012 between straightforward GDP per capita and the modified GDP by PPP per capita is significant.

The figures below for the year clearly show why the CCP switched in 2010 to giving its population the GDP by PPP per capita data instead of the GDP per capita data.

The sheeple of the CCP-PRC being censored, indoctrinated, controlled, i.e., severely limited in their knowledge of everything in the universe, are thus unable to know that the two different means of measurement exist. To the mass of the population of the CCP-PRC, there is only GDP by PPP. In fact, to them there is only PPP, as the CCP needs to reduce its focus on GDP given that its GDP is steadily decreasing each year with no end of it in sight. No more talk of GDP - all the talk is only of PPP.

Anyway, in a short clarifying statement of differentiation, GDP is exclusive. GDP by PPP is inclusive. The CCP in this one instance likes inclusion, and for obvious self-serving purposes and goals.

In 2012 the GDP per capita of the People's Republic of China was $6,188

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD

In 2012 the GDP by PPP per capita of the People's Republic of China was $9,100.

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_per_capita_2013_0.html

We see why the CCP has taken a shine to PPP and why GDP is no longer a part of CCP teachings, attention, discussion

PPP refers of course to Purchasing Power Parity, e.g., how much USD $100 can buy in your country. However, PPP is not a direct calculation, as I discuss in my post above. It is instead relative, weighted, fluctuates, yet operates from a baseline (USD $100).

As to categories of economy, why did you omit advanced, developed, developing. less developed? And why did you omit the designation of emerging economy, which is what both Thailand and the CCP-PRC are, among many others? Why did you exclusively present level of income status, which is but one means of measuring the status and categorization of an economy?

Given the state of the CCP's command and corruption economy and financial system, some are creating a new category of economy - the submerging economy.

Hey, I'm talking reality here. Like it or not, for better and for worse, the CCP-PRC is going down.

[folium]

The real data difference for the CCP-PRC in 2012 between straightforward GDP per capita and the modified GDP by PPP per capita is significant.

The figures below for the year clearly show why the CCP switched in 2010 to giving its population the GDP by PPP per capita data instead of the GDP per capita data.

The sheeple of the CCP-PRC being censored, indoctrinated, controlled, i.e., severely limited in their knowledge of everything in the universe, are thus unable to know that the two different means of measurement exist. To the mass of the population of the CCP-PRC, there is only GDP by PPP. In fact, to them there is only PPP, as the CCP needs to reduce its focus on GDP given that its GDP is steadily decreasing each year with no end of it in sight. No more talk of GDP - all the talk is only of PPP.

Anyway, in a short clarifying statement of differentiation, GDP is exclusive. GDP by PPP is inclusive. The CCP in this one instance likes inclusion, and for obvious self-serving purposes and goals.

In 2012 the GDP per capita of the People's Republic of China was $6,188

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD

In 2012 the GDP by PPP per capita of the People's Republic of China was $9,100.

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_per_capita_2013_0.html

We see why the CCP has taken a shine to PPP and why GDP is no longer a part of CCP teachings, attention, discussion

PPP refers of course to Purchasing Power Parity, e.g., how much USD $100 can buy in your country. However, PPP is not a direct calculation, as I discuss in my post above. It is instead relative, weighted, fluctuates, yet operates from a baseline (USD $100).

As to categories of economy, why did you omit advanced, developed, developing. less developed? And why did you omit the designation of emerging economy, which is what both Thailand and the CCP-PRC are, among many others? Why did you exclusively present level of income status, which is but one means of measuring the status and categorization of an economy?

Given the state of the CCP's command and corruption economy and financial system, some are creating a new category of economy - the submerging economy.

Hey, I'm talking reality here. Like it or not, for better and for worse, the CCP-PRC is going down.

Steely Han, you are getting a tad over-excited...!!

GDP (PPP) is hardly some cunning device designed by the CCP to fool its people. It's a widely used device and means of improving on the straight comparison by GDP. It would be like saying the Big Mac Index is some devious US plot to take over the world (when actually is was invented by some posh Brits working for the Economist!)

The concept of an "emerging economy" is all a bit passe as so many of the original EMs have emerged to some degree or other. An "emerging economy" is unquantifiable and thus how do you know when it has emerged? There is no ideal measurement for levels of development and their dynamic nature makes such measurement even harder. As can be seen in the link below there are multiple different definitions and lists of EMs, but only one country makes all 11 shopping lists, namely Turkey. S.Korea as an EM?!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_markets

NIC is a popular term highlighting the transformation. The WBs focus on income, which I happened to mention as a way of classifying countries (and it is certainly not the only option) adds multiple layers to try and highlight the progression from less developed to developed using a simple categorisation.

So come on play the game... first to happen, last to happen, what do you reckon? Perhaps add another category...will never happen.

1. A non-US team wins the "World Series"
2. England wins the World Cup (football, or soccer if you insist)
3. Obama is impeached
4. China's economy implodes and the CCP dissolves
5. A woman becomes US president
6. A woman becomes Pope

Edited October 12, 2013 by folium

[SinglePot]

Bangalore becomes Silicon Valley of Asia.