Kittiratt believes Thailand will not face real estate bubble

[midas]

What I want to see published is:

• Not the number of housing unite available for sale
• Not the number of housing units sold
• but instead the number of housing units actually OCCUPIED by the owner. (as a percentage of sold or available units)

That is because I believe that many of these so-called housing units are being bought for investment purposes only and are not occupied by the owners.

That is to say the owners don't actually live in their "investment" units.

To me that is the first indication of a housing "bubble".

I suspect that that occupied units figure is less than 50% of the available units in many housing developments especially around Bangkok.

In my opinion if less than 50% of the available units (whether "sold" or not ) are not actually occupied by their owners I would call that housing development a place not to invest in or buy property in.

And it seems that most "real estate salesmen" are very reluctant to answer that very question even if asked directly by potential buyers.

Another indication based on what I saw after the 1997 crisis was condominiums that were sold in an unfinished state (i.e. as a shell or with only very basic fitout) remained in that condition sometimes for many years afterwards. In other words the owners saw such poor prospects to be able to rent the property out that they didn't even bother to spend more money to fit it out. I saw one property in 2003 near Ekamai that had been in that state for six years. Totally empty full of cobwebs and dust.

[rotary]

I believe that Muang Thong Thani has hundreds of "unsold condos" that have been complete since 1995. Maybe he needs glasses

[BillyBobThai]

Personally, I am hopping for the baht to go to 42 against the US dollar.

[choff56]

He is the guy that lied about stuff to make Thailand look good and when caught he said it was to keep people confident. So I for one do not trust what he says.

No, trust me on this one.

[choff56]

Kittirat only needs to tour the Pattaya region to realise the hollowness of his words. Buildings going up everywhere, completed projects sitting empty. Vast numbers of them. In my mooban, 10% of the houses are for sale and have been for a very long time, while a dozen or more houses for rent are gathering dust. Kittirat gives far too much credibility to the banks, which have the history to prove him wrong (1997, Mr K?)

In all fairness you can't use Pattaya as an example. Or Phuket or Koh samui or that one section of Chiang Mai.

[ratcatcher]

Personally, I am hopping for the baht to go to 42 against the US dollar.

How long have you been hopping? Are you getting tired yet?

With the dollar at just over B31/$1.00 I am hoping you don't have to wait too long.

[choff56]

Watch the exchange rate. It's usually a good barometer as to the financial status of the country.

You sure. Didn't the exchange rate go from around 25 to 50 something overnight in 97.

[choff56]

What a joke.....Give it 36-48 more months. Every Soi and vacant piece of land is being developed

with thousands of new shoe box condos. Half are already empty, and the new developments can't

sell 75% of what is built already. When you see hours of advertising, free gifts and price reductions

the bubble is starting to burst already.

Yes but when their built with corruption money, who cares. Easy come, easy go. Besides with all the cash I was accumulating, I was starting to run out of room at home. I thought I was gonna have to relegate Buddha to the Mia Nois house.

[choff56]

Prices don't seem t be going up much/at all, so how can there possibly be a bubble. All I see is massive oversupply and massive amounts of new condos being built.

That my friends is the stench of corruption.

[Thai at Heart]

Kittirat only needs to tour the Pattaya region to realise the hollowness of his words. Buildings going up everywhere, completed projects sitting empty. Vast numbers of them. In my mooban, 10% of the houses are for sale and have been for a very long time, while a dozen or more houses for rent are gathering dust. Kittirat gives far too much credibility to the banks, which have the history to prove him wrong (1997, Mr K?)

In all fairness you can't use Pattaya as an example. Or Phuket or Koh samui or that one section of Chiang Mai.

Where should be kakasin or phrase?

[LuckyLew]

The banks are ready ..

Are these not the same people who want to loan the Gov't trillion?

[EricBerg]

Kittiratt is making a beginner's mistake: by denying the inevitable he speeds up the process.

[Sakeopete]

Here in Hua Hin there are new condos popping up like pimples on a teenager. My wife and I were looking at many projects, what we found was that the best suites (best views, not facing west, poolside etc) were sold before the official public offering the remaining suites sit unsold. I'm guessing people with connections to the developer bought all the cherries so they could be flipped and left the pits for Joe public. Doesn't seem to be enough demand for Joe public to buy the pits.

All those unsold suites mean less maintenance fees being paid I wonder how long before maintenance starts to depreciate making it harder yet to sell those remaining suites. Looking at Bangkok condos it doesn't take long before maintenance fees are skimmed and the development goes t the dogs.

[jonstarjon]

Thais would rather have all four limbs severed than accept less than they paid for the property and the land office will not accept a sale at face value to be less than the price originally purchased for in some bizzare logic they employ here.

Is this an actual rule or law?

Just hadn't heard of this before..

[boomerangutang]

Who wants to buy condos in Bkk - even on speculation? I might invest in a shrimp farm in a swamp (formerly known as Bangkok), but not spend a shitload of baht to buy a condo or apartment there. On 2nd thought, who'd want to eat shrimp grown near Bkk?

[dcutman]

Knight Frank Thailand has accumulated the figure for the Bangkok condominium supply from 2009 to Q1 2013. The cumulative supply at the end of Q1 2013 amounted to 254,638 units, increasing by 7.5% from the end of 2012. This increase in condominium supply significantly resulted from 17,869 newly launched condominium units from 48 projects during the first quarter of 2013, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1

Bangkok Condominium Stock and New Supply, 2009 to Q1 2013

http://www.knightfrank.co.th/en/news/21-05-2013/knight-frank-thailand-reveals-q1-2013-bangkok-condominium-market-overview

[OnMyWay2]

Personally, I am hopping for the baht to go to 42 against the US dollar.

Hang in there. I think we'll see 38 in the next year or so. I was talking to a Thai lady who is pretty savvy in finance and she thinks the bhat will go to 40.

Even if there's no housing bubble the way to clear the system from all of this over building and bad loans will be through bhat depreciation.

[dru2]

Kittirat only needs to tour the Pattaya region to realise the hollowness of his words. Buildings going up everywhere, completed projects sitting empty. Vast numbers of them. In my mooban, 10% of the houses are for sale and have been for a very long time, while a dozen or more houses for rent are gathering dust. Kittirat gives far too much credibility to the banks, which have the history to prove him wrong (1997, Mr K?)

In all fairness you can't use Pattaya as an example. Or Phuket or Koh samui or that one section of Chiang Mai.

Where should be kakasin or phrase?

Is that meant to be Kalasin or Phrae?

[tpiety2]

The Banks have plans, it works like this, if you dont keep up your payments, the Bank will chuck you out and own the property, simple really works all over the world.

Near me I see lots of empty properties, all got True dishes on the house and several air cons, the gardens are now going back to nature and all the trucks and cars that adorned the property well I wonder where they have gone, back to the supplier I guess.

Nothing comes free but Thailand wants it all and it wants it now without a thought as to how its going to be paid for, they could not wait and get things a bit at a time, well the Banks wont worry it a good deal for them, get a few payments and soon the property and the land.

Nothing comes free but Thailand wants it all and it wants it now without a thought as to how its going to be paid for, they could not wait and get things a bit at a time.

I am learning this is the MO of the majority of Thais they have no compunction about borrowing money

with absolutely no regard or intention of paying it back as long as they can get what they want.

It will come back to haunt them and Thailand, the Bubble will POP... it always does.

[i claudius]

Thailand "THE HUB OF BULLSHIT" nice ring to it ,the govt shouls adopt it as a motto.

[tpiety2]

Personally, I am hopping for the baht to go to 42 against the US dollar.

Hang in there. I think we'll see 38 in the next year or so. I was talking to a Thai lady who is pretty savvy in finance and she thinks the bhat will go to 40.

Even if there's no housing bubble the way to clear the system from all of this over building and bad loans will be through bhat depreciation.

Along with baht depreciation comes inflation. When the baht to dollar goes up prices go up as well.

I've noticed everything cost a little more since the baht is weakening.

[Yunla]

I have one of the older condos just outside Bangkok, built back in the 1980's and I love it, the people are very friendly and its a nice leafy sunny area to spend my old age in. However the condo area which was once very busy is now largely empty condos that are for sale or rent and vacant. We also have a condo block near me which was started construction in late 2009 and then left unfinished, it is just the outer building but they never got round to actually fitting it because they realised the market was not just there. So after three years its just this hollow monolith with decaying tarpaulin in the windows. I'm sure that in a non-bubble economy this building would have been finished and be selling units. There is too much longterm uncertainty here to inspire confident investment, especially as many tourists are still reeling from what happened to the housing markets back home.

[EricBerg]

Personally, I am hopping for the baht to go to 42 against the US dollar.

How long have you been hopping? Are you getting tired yet?

With the dollar at just over B31/$1.00 I am hoping you don't have to wait too long.

the usd will only be worth less and less. They're printing ever 80 million dollar new each month!!! That's about a trillion usd a year. the country there will collapse and pull many others down. the usd will not be the reserve standard for long anymore.

[timewilltell]

Prices don't seem t be going up much/at all, so how can there possibly be a bubble. All I see is massive oversupply and massive amounts of new condos being built.

Not sure if you were being ironic or not. But you have described a bubble and we are at the top which is why prices are doing nothing.

[bander]

Why is it when I read such comments from people who are in charge, like with the flood, the oil spill, the rice pledge, the airport....... I not believe them anymore, they have told the public so many BS, that there is enough to export meanwhile ..... Thailand nr 1 in export BS !!!!

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He believe what the fortune teller read in the crystal ball, not surprising that 90% of he's statements are wrong

[bander]

The Banks have plans, it works like this, if you dont keep up your payments, the Bank will chuck you out and own the property, simple really works all over the world.

Near me I see lots of empty properties, all got True dishes on the house and several air cons, the gardens are now going back to nature and all the trucks and cars that adorned the property well I wonder where they have gone, back to the supplier I guess.

Nothing comes free but Thailand wants it all and it wants it now without a thought as to how its going to be paid for, they could not wait and get things a bit at a time, well the Banks wont worry it a good deal for them, get a few payments and soon the property and the land.

Nothing comes free but Thailand wants it all and it wants it now without a thought as to how its going to be paid for, they could not wait and get things a bit at a time.

I am learning this is the MO of the majority of Thais they have no compunction about borrowing money

with absolutely no regard or intention of paying it back as long as they can get what they want.

It will come back to haunt them and Thailand, the Bubble will POP... it always does.

I like to see anybody borrow money to Thais and get it back...."that'll be the day"

[OnMyWay2]

Personally, I am hopping for the baht to go to 42 against the US dollar.

How long have you been hopping? Are you getting tired yet?

With the dollar at just over B31/$1.00 I am hoping you don't have to wait too long.

the usd will only be worth less and less. They're printing ever 80 million dollar new each month!!! That's about a trillion usd a year. the country there will collapse and pull many others down. the usd will not be the reserve standard for long anymore.

They're printing 80 billion each month and it's finding it's way into places like Thailand and India. That's why the rupee went into cardiac arrest at the mere mention that the US might stop with the easy money.

[rametindallas]

Kittiratt believes...

Who can believe what Mr. 'Little White Lie' Kittiratt believes. Personally, I wouldn't trust him to give the correct time of day.

[Thait Spot]

He believes.

Everybody needs something to believe in.

I believe the Thai economy is rapidly approaching the stage where it will end up managing the government

[yooper2001]

Are these the same banks that lent money for a first time car buyer last year and now have 10,500 per month car payment but only earn 9000 in salary per month?

Thai business boggles the mind