Democrat Leader Says He's Ready To Become Pm

[jdinasia]

Farming practices will have to change if standards of living are to improve in rural areas. Mechanization will have to take over from labour intensive practices if wages are to rise. These things are already starting to happen under Thaksin. It will be decades before 10% of the population on the land are producing 10% of GDP as is the ratio in developed countries, but things are moving that way thanks to democracy.

so ... unemploy how many farmers to accomplish this? Then those that are unemployed will do what etc etc ... and how to pay for it all?

But ... back to Abahist ....

The guy has more to offer than any other person I see on the political front at this point .... the Democrats need to smooth their decision-making process out .... they take too much time building concensus amongst themselves ... so a strong platform will help them out a huge amount

Edited May 1, 2006 by jdinasia

[bulmercke]

Thai Rak Thai MPs will not accept any ruling against election: Somsak - The Nation -

Thai Rak Thai Party MP Somsak Thepsuthin said his party MPs would not accept any court ruling, which may be made to nullify the election.

Somsak said Thai Rak Thai MPs see that the reasons cited to ask the Constitution Court to nullify the April 2 election were too weak.

"The MPs are considering to find a channel to fight. Thai Rak Thai MPs will not allow the cited reasons to be used to set a precedence," Somsak said.

What a mess!

After Thaksin announced his decision not to seek nominations to be the next PM I hoped this would herald the beginning of the end of Thaksin's five years of "Dark Ages" rule, but it's looking more likely this could just be the beginning. i.e. the end of the beginning with much worse to come before this impasse is cleared.

What's the alternative to annulling parliament? One party rule for the next five years with no checks and balances again.

What's more telling from the actions of TRT now is that they're definitely fearful of a land-slide in favour of ALL the opposition parties!

Goin' to be another interesting few months I think.

[tettyan]

What's more telling from the actions of TRT now is that they're definitely fearful of a land-slide in favour of ALL the opposition parties!

Again, I'm no fan of TRT, but I think that's the last thing they're worried about. See some of my earlier posts in this thread about grassroot politics.

To reinforce my point, here's a piece from today's Bangkok Post. This should really make the Democrats worried:

Thai Rak Thai wins 9 of 14 district councils

May 1, 2006

The Thai Rak Thai party won nine of the 14 constituencies where elections for Bangkok district councils were held yesterday, according to unofficial results.

Its main rival the Democrat party won only four with victories in the districts of Bang Kapi, Min Buri, Saphan Sung and Wang Thonglang.

Thai Rak Thai triumphed in Lat Phrao, Sai Mai, Laksi, Kannayao, Klong Sam Wa, Chatuchak, Bung Kum, Bang Khen, and Lat Krabang districts, according to unofficial results.

Don Muang district saw Chart Thai and Thai Rak Thai sharing the spoils with Chart Thai taking seven of the eight seats.

"Only 30% of the eligible voters cast their ballots yesterday," said City Clerk Nathanon Thavisin.

Unlike city councillors, who serve as lawmakers for the city ordinances, the role of district councillors is only to give advice to district chiefs.

There are seven district councillors in each district.

Khunying Nathanon said invalid ballots made up less than 1% of votes. However, in Wang Thonglang district the invalid ballots made up 4.51% of the 15,214 votes cast.

No election fraud complaints had been received late last night.

-Bangkok Post

[bulmercke]

What's more telling from the actions of TRT now is that they're definitely fearful of a land-slide in favour of ALL the opposition parties!

Again, I'm no fan of TRT, but I think that's the last thing they're worried about. See some of my earlier posts in this thread about grassroot politics.

To reinforce my point, here's a piece from today's Bangkok Post. This should really make the Democrats worried:

Thai Rak Thai wins 9 of 14 district councils

May 1, 2006

The Thai Rak Thai party won nine of the 14 constituencies where elections for Bangkok district councils were held yesterday, according to unofficial results.

Its main rival the Democrat party won only four with victories in the districts of Bang Kapi, Min Buri, Saphan Sung and Wang Thonglang.

Thai Rak Thai triumphed in Lat Phrao, Sai Mai, Laksi, Kannayao, Klong Sam Wa, Chatuchak, Bung Kum, Bang Khen, and Lat Krabang districts, according to unofficial results.

Don Muang district saw Chart Thai and Thai Rak Thai sharing the spoils with Chart Thai taking seven of the eight seats.

"Only 30% of the eligible voters cast their ballots yesterday," said City Clerk Nathanon Thavisin.

Unlike city councillors, who serve as lawmakers for the city ordinances, the role of district councillors is only to give advice to district chiefs.

There are seven district councillors in each district.

Khunying Nathanon said invalid ballots made up less than 1% of votes. However, in Wang Thonglang district the invalid ballots made up 4.51% of the 15,214 votes cast.

No election fraud complaints had been received late last night.

-Bangkok Post

A good point tettyan, but I wouldn't read too much into the importance of these results. Only 30 per cent of the electorate voted and district council elections are not the same as general elections or for that matter, senatorial elections where more is at stake.

Whatever happens - and TRT appear to be strongly resisting any annulling of parliament - the main opposition parties will, no doubt, carefully consider their options and prepare themselves accordingly in the event of another general election.

The electoral process will be invigorated when and if another general election takes place. What we're witnessing now is voter apathy.

Nothing to worry about.

[tettyan]

A good point tettyan, but I wouldn't read too much into the importance of these results. Only 30 per cent of the electorate voted and district council elections are not the same as general elections or for that matter, senatorial elections where more is at stake.

Whatever happens - and TRT appear to be strongly resisting any annulling of parliament - the main opposition parties will, no doubt, carefully consider their options and prepare themselves accordingly in the event of another general election.

The electoral process will be invigorated when and if another general election takes place. What we're witnessing now is voter apathy.

Nothing to worry about.

These local council elections always witness low turnout. When the Democrats swept them four years ago, Thaksin also played down the result by saying the turnout was too low. Granted, many of those 14 districts, especially Bang Khen, Lat Krabang and Laksi, are pretty Thaksin-friendly by BKK standards. Still, I would wish that the Dems would have an organization to get out their voters; otherwise, they're at the whim of the very fickle popular mood.

BTW, not all the "No votes" from the last election necessarily translate into votes for the Dems. People voted "No" for a variety of reasons. Furthermore, with the NGOs and labour unions that backed the PAD now mulling the creation of their own parties, this could split the anti-Thaksin vote, virtually guaranteeing yet another victory to TRT. I hope to god that we don't get that kind of outcome, but I'm not going to let wishful thinking blind myself to the harsh realities.

Edited May 1, 2006 by tettyan

[Plus]

No votes are certainly not Democrat's votes, but TRT might find itself isolated and Democrats might pull all those votes into a coalition.

The worst thing that is going to happen in constituencies split votes will give TRT a victory. Just like voting for Nader in the US is effectively voting for Bush.

I personally don't think that Demos can win the elections, I just hope that government will become cleaner and more open. FTA need to be publicly discussed, privatisation plans need to be re-assessed - PTT and Egat need to be split, reguators put in place, and so on. Mega-projects need to be started, hopefully with less politics and more common sense.

It doesn't matter which party does all that, without Thaksin pulling all the strings TRT will be different.

[bulmercke]

No votes are certainly not Democrat's votes, but TRT might find itself isolated and Democrats might pull all those votes into a coalition.

The worst thing that is going to happen in constituencies split votes will give TRT a victory. Just like voting for Nader in the US is effectively voting for Bush.

I personally don't think that Demos can win the elections, I just hope that government will become cleaner and more open. FTA need to be publicly discussed, privatisation plans need to be re-assessed - PTT and Egat need to be split, reguators put in place, and so on. Mega-projects need to be started, hopefully with less politics and more common sense.

It doesn't matter which party does all that, without Thaksin pulling all the strings TRT will be different.

Thailand absolutely doesn't need a FTA agreement with the US. These negotiations came about simply because at the time it was politically expedient for Thaksin to enter into negotiations for his own political and business interests.

In FTA negotiations the Americans are extremely competent and experienced and also there are extensive trade areas that are beyond negotiation, simply because congress has decried these areas as 'out of bounds'.....and not within the confines of those trades/products that can be 'openly' negotiated.....for whatever reasons.

In the last round of negotiations, the Thais were like minows up against sharks. They were ill prepared and didn't have the expertise to effectively negotiate on even terms.

Thais should forget any ideas about FTAs.

Edited May 1, 2006 by bulmercke

[lukamar]

Thailand absolutely doesn't need a FTA agreement with the US.

I'll agree to that 100%. Canada and Mexico have defiantly not benefited from the one we have with the US.

[tettyan]

BACK to the topic at hand....

STREET WISE

Democrats still have much prove

April 27, 2006

The Economist greatly upset anti-Thaksin protesters when it recently expressed fears that the street demonstrations, which forced caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra into inactivity, would disrupt democratic development in Thailand.

The article attracted counter-arguments and four letters concerning the article were printed in this week's edition of The Nation.

But if the protesters paid attention to this week's cover article of The Economist, they might have grown even more edgy. Though the main story is about US politics, there are so many similarities to Thai politics that the opposition could easily plunge into depression.

Just when the protesters are trying to overthrow the "Thaksinomics" regime, they are thinking hard about who will guide the nation if Thaksin is completely out of the political picture.

The Democrats?

Indeed, Thai politics and US politics are alike. While Americans are fed up with President George Bush and his scandal-ridden Republican Party, few see a light at the end of the tunnel if the Democrats take over.

"The Democrats still have a lot to prove," is how The Economist begins its article. Since 1974, the Republicans have won seven of the past 10 presidential elections. But Bush is the most unpopular Republican president since Richard Nixon. With two-thirds of Americans convinced that their country is heading in the wrong direction, the Democrats stand a good chance of regaining power. But if the Republicans reek of decay, "the Democrats ooze dysfunctionality: divided, beholden to interest-groups and without a coherent policy on anything that matters to America and the world".

The magazine also went further to compare Republican incompetence and Democratic incoherence.

The comparison fits Thai politics real well.

I remember a recent cartoon in a Thai newspaper. In the first box, a man asked, "Are you confident in competing against Thai Rak Thai?" The other man said, "Sure, we are." In the second box, the second man added: "Whatever they said, we can argue against professionally."

If the cartoon tells anything, it is the absence of policies that matter to the entire nation. For example, while the Democrats show concern about the impact of huge investments in the mass-transit network and the lack of a huge budget for rural people, it has proposed no alternative for easing Bangkok traffic.

While on tour, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva lamented about Thaksinomics without elaborating what economic policies his party will lay out if the Democrats happen to lead the government again. The party has been pretty vague and rhetorical. It tells a lot why most of the poor are hooked to Thaksin's style of presenting difficult subjects in easy language.

When the Democrats say trade liberalisation, Thaksin says free-trade agreements. Even laymen know what is more specific and understandable. The Democrats still have a lot to prove, if they are to wipe Thaksinomics from people's minds.

[Bryan in Isaan]

Farming practices will have to change if standards of living are to improve in rural areas. Mechanization will have to take over from labour intensive practices if wages are to rise. These things are already starting to happen under Thaksin. It will be decades before 10% of the population on the land are producing 10% of GDP as is the ratio in developed countries, but things are moving that way thanks to democracy.

so ... unemploy how many farmers to accomplish this? Then those that are unemployed will do what etc etc ... and how to pay for it all?

But ... back to Abahist ....

The guy has more to offer than any other person I see on the political front at this point .... the Democrats need to smooth their decision-making process out .... they take too much time building concensus amongst themselves ... so a strong platform will help them out a huge amount

I don't know about mechanization, what about greater agricultural productivity? There are already better methods out there being taught in the agricultural colleges and being promoted by the royal family. It would take a relatively small amount of gov't money, but strong leadership to improve farming methods. Take for example a farmer getting 300 bushels from his rice harvest rather than 250 for a few baht more in upfront costs and using better methods. That would be around 5000 extra baht - a lot of money for a poor farmer, but more importantly, that's double his usual profit. Improvements like this might raise the farmer's percentage of the GDP from 1% to 1.5%. That's doesn't sound very exciting, but it buys a lot of school uniforms. Greater productivity would generate slow, but solid growth for the rural economy, helping to pay for more improvements, better schools, etc... Just my two cents, but I'm just a foreigner.

Soooo ... back to Abhisit ....

What is his position on this issue? He is the expert, not me. What DOES he have to offer? I realize this little thread is by no means comprehensive, but I didn't see much information on his solutions on how to reduce poverty or improve education in agricultural regions or problems in other regions. Perhaps if he has any positions on any issues, this thread would be a good place to talk about them - bring in articles, quotes, speeches, etc...

Edited May 2, 2006 by Bryan in Isaan

[Phil Conners]

They should give him a chance!

[ColPyat]

They should give him a chance!

Well, that is up to the people.

But as long as the Democrats won't find a way to formulate some policies and convince the voters, i fear that he won't get a chance.

[Plus]

There's was a very good commentary in Bangkok Post yesterday:

Clean hands, but not much else

Democrat party chief Abhisit Vejjajiva has still to establish a style of leadership to run the country effectively

By METTANANDO BHIKKHU

Is Abhisit Vejjajiva really going to be the next prime minister? The answer is: No, Thailand is not ready for him, in spite of the fact that he is the strongest contender for the premiership from the Democrat party.

Although Mr Abhisit has been serving as head of the Opposition in Parliament and has a strong family background, being the son of a family of famous professors of medicine, his greatest weakness is his young age. In a culture where seniority is highly esteemed like Thailand, youth is associated with lack of experience and immature judgment.

Among the advantages Mr Abhisit has over Thaksin Shinawatra is that he is good looking; he is fluent in the English language as a result of his upbringing in England when he was a teenager, plus being a graduate of Oxford University in PPE (philosophy, politics and economics). But his weakness is that he came into Thai politics at a very young age, having former prime minister and ex-party chief Chuan Leekpai as his mentor. In real life, he has not had any experience with the real world where competition is fierce and lawless. Throughout his academic life, Mr Abhisit has never shown his leadership nor taken part in social activism. His high family background has kept him from exposure to the stress and strain of the day-to-day struggle of people in slums and poor regions in remote provinces of Thailand.

No Thai would dare argue that Mr Abhisit would be a corrupt leader if the Democrat party succeeded in gaining the highest number of seats in Parliament, but his political carrier has not shown any outstanding achievement.

Besides, the "credit" of honesty which Thai people have for him cannot extend to all members of the Democrat party. Many outstanding leaders in the party, including some who have been Mr Abhisit's supporters, were not free from corruption scandals during the period when the Democrat party ran the government. One of Mr Abhisit's small projects under Mr Chuan's government _ to reform the bureaucracy _ has yet to be realised.

In fact, he cannot match what Mr Thaksin has done in the past five years _ enabling Thai citizens to gain easier access to government services. Moreover, the outcome of Mr Abhisit's reforms would have been more in favour of the bureaucrats than the citizens.

In his keynote speech at the convention of the Democrat party, Mr Abhisit addressed most important issues that clarified the policies of the party. However, he failed to give any vision of political reform, which is contentious as a long-term solution for the country, or whether it should take place.

The crisis which brought down the Thai Rak Thai government is rooted in the breach of the principle of ethics.

Since the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties are dependent on financial support from the business sector and business people always want their financial returns, how could a new Democrat government under Mr Abhisit's administration be free from conflict of interest?

Moreover, it was the Democrat party that paved the way for the popularity of the Thai Rak Thai and Mr Thaksin's government. Until now, the Thai people are still haunted by the inefficiency of the government under Mr Chuan Leekpai, a politician famous for his slow pace and indecision.

For almost two years under the new leadership of Mr Abhisit, the Democrat party has not reformed itself to become better, faster or more effective than before. The Democrat party has been known for its tradition of seniority and respect to elders, though Mr Abhisit was promoted to leadership of the party in response to the devastating defeat in the last general election of 2004 by the Thai Rak Thai.

During all this time, the Democrat party has not changed. In fact, it is the same old wine in the same old bottle, only the top cork has been replaced!

It was clear from the start that Mr Abhisit's leadership of his own party was not real, rather it was allowed by the senior figures in the party, such as Mr Chuan, Banyat Banthadthan and Suthep Thaugsuban.

Lastly, Mr Abhisit has not emerged from the shadow of his mentor, Mr Chuan, from whom he has learned to make sharp and satirical remarks during parliamentary debate. However, the young leader of the Democrat party has as yet neither found his own style of leadership nor his own political philosophy to run the country effectively.

Mettanando Bhikkhu is a Thai Buddhist monk and former physician. He studied at Chulalongkorn, Oxford and Harvard universities and received a PhD from Hamburg. He is special adviser on Buddhist affairs to the secretary-general of the World Conference of Religions for Peace.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/020506_News/02May2006_news17.php

[Greer]

Education costs money - there is no such ......

Why do you think Singapore and China do so well? Singapore has great infrastructure and China is rapidly building its own.

nice try, but utter BS. both china and singapore have had a strong emphasis on education for many years - and still do.

So do the local Thai Chinese (who incidentally are nearly identical to our Hokkien brothers in Singapore...

I think it is wholly eroneous to compare Singapore with almost anywhere else - it is a city state of 4.35 million people - not that hard to see how a place that small with the sort of international investment it has can support the population and the lifestyle they demand.

I realise too that 41.1% of Singapore's 76.8% Chinese are of Hokkien descent but let us not forget the other dialect groups whose diversity adds to the interesting mix that makes up the Chinese population of both Thailand and Singapore. Many of the Thai-Chinese I have met are Teochew, who make up a further 21% of the Singapore Chinese community as well.

Regarding the Democrats, and specifically Abhisit Vejjajiva, I realise that many will see him as inexperienced, but he has the party machine behind him, and although he is young, he is a well educated person who possibly could bring in a new era in Thai politics, with a younger outlook and hopefully a clean start. In the end, the Thai people will decide how they want the country to be run, and by whom.

Edited May 3, 2006 by Greer

[tettyan]

Regarding the Democrats, and specifically Abhisit Vejjajiva, I realise that many will see him as inexperienced, but he has the party machine behind him, and although he is young, he is a well educated person who possibly could bring in a new era in Thai politics, with a younger outlook and hopefully a clean start. In the end, the Thai people will decide how they want the country to be run, and by whom.

Unfortunately, the Democrat party machine you mention is virtually non-existant outside of the South, Bangkok and pockets of the Central region. It's definitely still an uphill struggle for the Democrats. I can only envision a Democrat victory if ALL the following conditions are fulfilled:

1) TRT splits - Not impossible, but it all depends on how events play out. For instance, if the next election is scheduled far out enough so that TRT's MPs are beyond the reach of the 90-day rule, then defections are likely. More importantly, if Thaksin continues to succumb to urban pressure and not offer himself as TRT's candidate for PM in the next election, then a split is virtually assured.

2)Move by PAD supporters to form their own parties peters out - If the groups backing the PAD choose to form their own parties and contest the election, then a spit in the anti-Thaksin vote is likely. If this doesn't come to fruition, or on the other hand, if they form an alliance with the Dems and agree not to run candidates against each other in the same districts, then I would have cause to be optimistic.

3)The Democrats come up with a user-friendly platform that addresses rural voters' concenrs, such as poverty, drugs, etc. - Sadly, this might be the biggest hurdle for the Democrats to jump. The most pathetic thing about this, of course, is that unlike the other factors I listed, this element is entirely within their control. Give them a chance? I'm still waiting...

Edited May 3, 2006 by tettyan

[Thaible]

Abhisit is the John Kerry of Thailand.

Good looking, great credentials, smooth talking; but has never done anything positive for the people despite being in politics for so long and loves to insult his opponents rather than address real issues.

[CL0R0X]

so you refer the corrupted to run the country, done anything positive or not i rather pick Abhisit over Toxin, atleast he hasn't done anything wrong yet, the person who done wrong have done wrong, and the person haven't done wrong dont make him wrong, people like you that make Thailand worst than it is, do you know where your tax paying money goes? in Toxin pocket, oh! wait you dont pay tax.

[jdinasia]

Thailand absolutely doesn't need a FTA agreement with the US.

I'll agree to that 100%. Canada and Mexico have defiantly not benefited from the one we have with the US.

ummm Nafta sure has benefitted both Mexico AND Canada ... but this is about Thailand

[Plus]

Abhisit is the John Kerry of Thailand.

Good looking, great credentials, smooth talking; but has never done anything positive for the people despite being in politics for so long and loves to insult his opponents rather than address real issues.

He does address the real issues, unfortunately most Thais don't see them as real.

I don't think he's PM material, not for now, what he says is years ahead of what people want to hear.

Somehow people think that there will be a knight in shining armor who'll solve all their problems.

Life doesn't work that way. Take TRT policies and Democrat's transparency for now, and say thank you to gods.

[sriracha john]

The alternative Thaksin has some real issues with honesty. He's totally opposed to it:

Ex-partner files charges against Thaksin

An American businessman who was the former partner in a paid TV venture, International Broadcasting Corporation (IBC) - previously owned by caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra – filed criminal charges against Mr Thaksin.

William Monson appeared at a press conference Wednesday with outgoing Senator Kraisak Choonhavan, acting chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs. The American said he had to make public his case out of concern for political interference in the ongoing lawsuit.

Mr Kraisak said he took part in the press conference to reassure that Thai society could offer justice to foreign investors in Thailand and was not politically motivated.

Mr Monson claims under the original agreement in the late 1980s, that he purchased and imported transmission equipment while Mr Thaksin coordinated with the Thai authorities for the cable TV concession.

A business dispute erupted with Mr Thaksin seizing the equipment and filing criminal charges against Mr Monson. Mr Monson appealed in Civil Court, which eventually ruled in his favour last year.

“Now that the Appeals Court upheld the ruling of the Court of First Instance, I believe it is time the Criminal Court take up the case. Previously the Criminal Court withheld my suit but I heard now that it has scheduled a hearing on June 19,” Mr Monson said. “I’m not so interested in money, I’m not fighting out of hate, but I want justice. Thaksin told me that hey, this was Thailand. So I guess he could do whatever he wanted.”

= BP

[sriracha john]

....and people wonder why he's such a crooked politician.... when he started off as a crooked businessman...

Past lawsuit catches up with Thaksin

By David Ogan 4 May 2006 01:55

The Bangkok South Criminal Court yesterday decided to hear a criminal case against caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that was filed more than 10 years ago by his former American business partner in a now defunct cable television joint-venture.

William Monson, an American businessman, the plaintiff, was accompanied by former senators Kraisak Choonhavan and Nirand Pitakwatachara at a press conference yesterday evening at Parliament House to announce the resumption of a criminal case against Thaksin, filed in 1995, that had been accepted by the court.

Alleging that Thaksin had “stolen” his idea to form International Broadcasting Corporation (IBC) Plc, the country’s first and largest cable TV company in the 1980s, Monson claimed that Thaksin had harassed him with a series of civil cases in both the Civil and Appeals courts, which later vindicated him of any wrongdoings.

“I realize where Thaksin is at now in the political process in Thailand,” Monson said. “But I think it is my job to look for justice.” The Supreme Court is expecting to rule on the case shortly, according to Monson.

IBC was part of the Shinawatra Group before it was merged with UTV, the second-largest cable TV operator then, and a Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group subsidiary, to become UBC in the late 1990s, now the country’s only major cable TV operator.

Monson explained that he was interested in introducing cable TV to Thailand and approached the Mass Communications Organization of Thailand (MCOT) in 1980 to consider the idea. MCOT directors then introduced him to Thaksin.

According to Monson, Thaksin agreed to “politick” his way and get the authorities to grant a cable broadcasting license.

However, the government froze IBC’s broadcasts after only a few months due to the limitations on private operators to broadcast wireless cable signals.

However, when the Chatchai Choonhavan government came to power in 1988, and the opportunity arose to restart the business, Thaksin said he was no longer keen, agreed to sell his stake in IBC, and a contract was drawn up between them, according to Monson.

“However, while negotiations on the license were going on, Thaksin announced that he had decided to do the business and my companies were welcome to supply equipment and programming, but it would be his business,” Monson said.

“[When] I asked him [about] all of our contracts and my payments, he said: ‘Hey, this is Thailand’,” Monson continued. “So I guess it meant he could do whatever he wanted to do. The next day, he demanded that the equipment be handed over to him [as it was needed] to get the license. I said no.” Following that, Monson claimed, Thong Lor station police officers, Thaksin’s wife Khunying Pojaman and MCOT officials appeared at his office to demand the equipment, which was taken away, and Monson and his Thai staff were arrested.

A legal battle then ensued.

“Thaksin [informed] the courts that I was an employee and [had stolen] the equipment, which was the opposite of the truth,” Monson said.

Monson instituted civil and criminal actions against Thaksin in Thailand and the US. “My lawyer asked [him] in Seattle, where his depositions were taken, what he knew about [the] cable TV business before meeting [me],” Monson said. “His answer was that he was a cable TV customer when he went to university in Texas.” “Basically, I was his teacher and he was a good student.” Pramok Sutabutr, a former MCOT director who confessed to introducing Thaksin to Monson, was present at yesterday’s press conference, and he explained the business conflict.

Under the agreement between IBC and MCOT, the broadcasting equipment had to be “given” to MCOT, which Monson had refused to do under his agreement with Thaksin, said Pramok.

“IBC wanted to acquire the equipment and [lodged a complaint] with the police, and filed civil action against Monson for embezzlement,” Pramok said. “Monson then filed a criminal lawsuit against Thaksin in 1995 for [making] false accusations, but the criminal case had to wait until all civil proceedings were over.” Both the Civil and Appeals courts found Monson innocent of the charge, and he sought to revive his criminal case against Thaksin.

The Bangkok South Criminal Court has accepted his motion, and has scheduled June 19 for the first hearing, according to Pramok.

Monson denied he was taking advantage of the current political turmoil to relieve his animosity against the embattled caretaker prime minister, and added that he was not bringing this matter up at this time for the sake of money or pleasure.

[tettyan]

The TRT does communicate to the people, and especially to the rural poor by a very elaborate grassroots network. Every Mu Ban in the north and north east has regular meetings in which locally active TRT members transmit government policies. One TRT activist is generally responsible for ten families.

In adition to that Thaksin makes very clever use of the media, such as his radio program. He also does, when he speaks to the poeple, use a simple colloquial Thai that uneducated people do understand easily.

Reducing Thaksin only to an old style dictator that buys votes, oppresses people and disables the media is plain stupid, and leads to underestimating the dangererous situation Thailand is in now. If you like it or not - he has managed to build up vast genuine support under the rural poor, and he has done that by doing what no politician has done before in Thailand to this extend - by regularly speaking to the people in a language they can understand, and by building up a constant presence in the villages.

He provides for those people's immediate needs (and yes, before you say it, i am aware that he ruins the country, and usually provides by not thought through knee jerk programs).

Point being: while the other governments ruled from Bangkok confident of the apathy of those village folks, Thaksin went straight to them to get popular support.

So far, i do not see any attempt by the main opposition parties to claim any sort of popular support there.

The danger being: if Thaksin is removed, even if legally, that might very possibly cause huge discontent in those villages.

To make it more clear: we come close to a nasty catch 22 situation - a continued rule of Thaksin will damage the country enormously, but a removal of Thaksin might damage the country even worse.

This situation was of course brought on by Thaksin in the first place, but contributing factor has been the inability of the other parties to change into parties that represent the people.

We see now the result of decades of mismanaging the country by corrupt politicians.

As mentioned by myself and others previously, the elaborate political network you mention is nothing more than the old patronage system, Thaksin just bought up all the local MPs of NAP, Chart Pattana etc, and at the TRT meeting last week Khunying Potchaman, his wife, told the faction leaders that at the next election they would have to pay half the election costs. She wouldn't fund the lot, as in last time because she obviously lost money!

All of Thaksin's stategists, policy formulists,close buddies, etc are with the exception of Nevin Chidchorp, city people, ex-Shinawat employees.

The Colonel, I have to doubt your knowledge of Thai politics, first you say you've never heard of Chermsak Pinthong,an extremely prominent activist, then you claim 'massive' funding of foreign scholarships; the number is actually only a few hundred and the students cannot learn in English, it must be a useful language like Polish.

Thirdly, this huge discontent in the villages you talk about, if you know upcountry you will know at present the rainy season is beginning and every farmer is ploughing the fields in preparation for rice planting. The price of diesel, fertiliser, labour is what is preying on their minds, Bangkok and Thaksin is only a distant blip.

I'm not sure if it's that simple. Yes, in many areas, TRT simply "bought" or "rented" existing local patronage networks - such as with Sanoh, Newin (in Buriram), Yongyuth (in Chiang Rai), Kamnan Po and many others. But there are also many areas where TRT came to power by circumventing the existing patronage networks, building their own grassroots networks. Samut Prakarn is one place that that comes to mind, where Thaksin broke the political dominance of the Assavaheme clan (formerly of the Rassadorn Party, now with Mahachon). Another is in Chiang Mai, where TRT actually rose to power going AGAINST the political establishment there. Contrary to common belief, the Shinawatras are relative newcomers when it comes to Chiangmai politics - which had traditionally been dominanted by the blue-blooded Nimmenhamen (with the Democrats) and na-Chiangmai (formerly with New Aspiration, but threw their lot with the Dems in the 2005 election) families.

Yes, much of TRT's brain-trust is city-based. But many of them are former student activists from the 1970s, who had fled the military dictatorship to Isan in the 1970s to join the Communist Party of Thailand. Many of them are familiar with the problems and issues in rural areas, and know which policies can attract the support of the rural poor.

The Democrats, in contrast, are still very much an elite party that's out of touch with the everyday issues that the rural poor have to live with. Yes, I agree with their platitudes about increased "transparency", rule-of-law, education, etc, but the need to explain more concretely to the average voter what this means for them! They also need a nation-wide organization - to some it may sound lik asking for too much, but if you look at other countries, that's how parties get into power! Refer to my earlier posts in this thread about the Democrats' historical reluctance to even contest local elections!

Edited May 13, 2006 by tettyan

[Zorro 69]

Abhisit is the John Kerry of Thailand.

Good looking, great credentials, smooth talking; but has never done anything positive for the people despite being in politics for so long and loves to insult his opponents rather than address real issues.

John Kerry is a Yank. Stop thinking like a farang !

[jdinasia]

Fri's news in The Nation regarding the EC and TRT and Thaksin was great .... sadly the appropriate thread was closed ... hmmm

[sriracha john]

Fri's news in The Nation regarding the EC and TRT and Thaksin was great .... sadly the appropriate thread was closed ... hmmm

Speaking of the EC and Thaksin:

[penzman]

Good one.

[Siripon]

Fri's news in The Nation regarding the EC and TRT and Thaksin was great .... sadly the appropriate thread was closed ... hmmm

I agree, I don't know why it was closed, anyway some interesting speculation is going on amongst the analysts and as this is the only political thread it seemed the best place to post it.

Banharn Silapacha, leader of Chart Thai, to be the next PM is the rumour. It makes sense in some ways.

1. Thaksin is afraid if Somkhit relaces him people will get used to and enjoy his friendly working manner, apart from his economic skills. He could become popular.May be difficult for abrasive Thaksin to come back after that.

2.Whoever he appoints from within TRT will cause resentment with the other factions, endangering a split; best to bring in an old, outside, trustworthy trooper who will ensure the constitutional reforms pass Parliament.

Then Thaksin can come back with TRT, Banharn gets the credit for seeing things through and Chart Thai are happy to join the gravy train again.

A possible scenario?

[ColPyat]

Banharn Silapacha, leader of Chart Thai, to be the next PM is the rumour. It makes sense in some ways.

Banharn as PM would be a return to utter idiocy in Thai politics. At least we would have a lot to laugh about again having our own Joe Pesci - Danny DeVito mix back on the helm.

At the present moment it is all rumor and very little substance, and i doubt that anyone can make any substantiated prediction on who is going to be next PM.

[penzman]

Any chance of seeing her run? She seems to be meddling quite a lot within TRT...

Pojaman holds meeting with top Thai Rak Thai members

Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra, the wife of caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, held a meeting with core members of the Thai Rak Thai Party Saturday morning.

While Thaksin remained at his house, Pojaman went to the party head office on Phetchaburin Road.

Core members, who came to meet Pojaman, included Sudarat Keyuraphan, Pongthep Thepkanchana, Newin Chidchob, Sora-at Klinpratoom and Suriya Jungrungreangkit.

None of them would say what topic they discussed with the first lady of the party.

The Nation

[jdinasia]

Hmmm ... Penz .. she isn't on the party-list so ... No No chance of that at this point.

Anyone from ChartThai is unlikely too.

Who knows what comes next! But it will be exciting. Thus's The Nation looked to be predicting the end of TRT and a 5 year ban on Thaksin.

So the question becomes ... if TRT is dissolved ... where will the new alliances land?