What are the odds protest wins and government changes ? And when?

[Kitsune]

Pardon my total lack of knowledge in Thai politics /naive/ stupid question but until a couple of days I had no interest in it.

All that has changed now : My favorite food supply franchise has decided to close all its shops to join the fight against the government.

They will only resume business when the government is thrown over.

In other words I'm in trouble.

I talked to them, told them the whole world is corrupted and even more so in Thailand, where everyone is against corruption until they need a favor

In a country where voters received money, what's the point of demanding a new election ?

They have no idea how it will take but are determined to go all the way. Apparently the red shirts and Yinluck are now the baddies and corrupted (what a shock ) and need to be dismissed, for having stolen too much money.

I read Yinluck is on "shaky grounds", she had some set backs, she just lost the "amnesty gambit", a "huge price for her and her brother", but she had "survived the flood and bounced back", so she's a toughie ?

Can this last for months ? year ?

Thank you

[Gsxrnz]

Don't worry. The tanks are expected to be rolling any day soon. With excellent strategic planning they're having a late coup this year to muck up the tourist high season. The traditional coup season is September/October.

Then expect 10 months of pontificating as all the players pay off old debts and stake claims to new favours, and then the carnival will begin again with a new set of players but ironically, the script will be unchanged.

Then if you're sick of the story and want to jump ahead a few pages, just hit the FF>> button to 2016.

C'est la vie.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Gsxrnz

[Kitsune]

Tanks ? Is that not a bit too much for peaceful protest ?

So if the coup should have been in Sept/Oct is this going to drag for months ?

What's in 2016 ?

Edited November 15, 2013 by Kitsune

[David48]

Hi there Kitty Cat ... did 'Are we are war yet' posted by dog torturer not last long enough ...

Please be smarter and less transparent next time.

Love your style ... ... you're an asset to the Forum.

[Kitsune]

Hi there Kitty Cat ... did 'Are we are war yet' posted by dog torturer not last long enough ...

Please be smarter and less transparent next time.

Love your style ... ... you're an asset to the Forum.

Sorry did not read that post.

Although I am just interested in a time frame really.

Less transparent ? I'm not smart that's a given fact.

[Farma]

Does make you wonder if there are some worried people when 2 of Khun T's daughters fly to London with 150 kgs of luggage then claim they are only there for a week.

Link http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/ex-thai-pms-children-cause-online-uproar/story-e6frfkui-1226761389615

[CPH]

The chance is zero.

[Gsxrnz]

Hi there Kitty Cat ... did 'Are we are war yet' posted by dog torturer not last long enough ...

Please be smarter and less transparent next time.

Love your style ... ... you're an asset to the Forum.

Sorry did not read that post.

Although I am just interested in a time frame really.

Less transparent ? I'm not smart that's a given fact.

The best post in that thread was by Rimmer - "One reported nonsense post removed". Absolutely classic!!

[Gsxrnz]

Does make you wonder if there are some worried people when 2 of Khun T's daughters fly to London with 150 kgs of luggage then claim they are only there for a week.

Link http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/ex-thai-pms-children-cause-online-uproar/story-e6frfkui-1226761389615

You need that many pairs of shoes for a week in London.

[David48]

Good night and Good Luck.

This young Laddie has to be to bed early as the NZ vs Scotland game is on in the wee hours.

If it was the December 1 ... I'd wish you all a Merry Christmas ...

[Kitsune]

Oh my god this is going to drag for months !

[Gsxrnz]

Good night and Good Luck.

This young Laddie has to be to bed early as the NZ vs Scotland game is on in the wee hours.

If it was the December 1 ... I'd wish you all a Merry Christmas ...

David Mate!! The results a foregone conclusion. The Blacks by at least 12 points. I'll even give you odds of 5 to 1 on that. Cheers

Edit: I thought it was the Poms we were going to thrash tonight, not the Scots. No matter, I'll offer the same odds.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Gsxrnz

[WitawatWatawit]

Tanks ? Is that not a bit too much for peaceful protest ?

So if the coup should have been in Sept/Oct is this going to drag for months ?

What's in 2016 ?

In the May 92 uprising against the Suchinda govt, I stood on the Bangna highway and watched the tanks and the troops roll into the city from Chonburi. In 2006, there were lots of reports of tanks being mobilised around the city. Same in 2010. They're there for effect and to show everyone that the military is the real boss. And as for peaceful protest, your guess is as good as mine as to how long the protest is going to remain peaceful, especially now that some Dem heavyweights have decided on an all-or-nothing approach.

2016? Just a figure plucked out of the air to indicate the cyclical nature of coups in this country.

[WitawatWatawit]

Good night and Good Luck.

This young Laddie has to be to bed early as the NZ vs Scotland game is on in the wee hours.

If it was the December 1 ... I'd wish you all a Merry Christmas ...

David Mate!! The results a foregone conclusion. The Blacks by at least 12 points. I'll even give you odds of 5 to 1 on that. Cheers

I hope you guys are barracking for the Kiwis. I'll be violently disappointed if you are not.

[Gsxrnz]

Good night and Good Luck.

This young Laddie has to be to bed early as the NZ vs Scotland game is on in the wee hours.

If it was the December 1 ... I'd wish you all a Merry Christmas ...

David Mate!! The results a foregone conclusion. The Blacks by at least 12 points. I'll even give you odds of 5 to 1 on that. Cheers

I hope you guys are barracking for the Kiwis. I'll be violently disappointed if you are not.

Too right!!! Go the mighty AB'S !!!!

[Kitsune]

Tanks ? Is that not a bit too much for peaceful protest ?

So if the coup should have been in Sept/Oct is this going to drag for months ?

What's in 2016 ?

In the May 92 uprising against the Suchinda govt, I stood on the Bangna highway and watched the tanks and the troops roll into the city from Chonburi. In 2006, there were lots of reports of tanks being mobilised around the city. Same in 2010. They're there for effect and to show everyone that the military is the real boss. And as for peaceful protest, your guess is as good as mine as to how long the protest is going to remain peaceful, especially now that some Dem heavyweights have decided on an all-or-nothing approach.

2016? Just a figure plucked out of the air to indicate the cyclical nature of coups in this country.

OK thank you very much for this answer Wita, so basically every 3/4 for years Thailand is in political protest for half a year though nothing ever changes.

It seems pointless especially that the next election will be subject to fraudes and no one will say anything.

[David48]

Good night and Good Luck.

This young Laddie has to be to bed early as the NZ vs Scotland game is on in the wee hours.

If it was the December 1 ... I'd wish you all a Merry Christmas ... alt=biggrin.png width=20 height=20>

David Mate!! The results a foregone conclusion. The Blacks by at least 12 points. I'll even give you odds of 5 to 1 on that. Cheers

Edit: I thought it was the Poms we were going to thrash tonight, not the Scots. No matter, I'll offer the same odds.

Oh my god this is going to drag for months ! alt=saai.gif width=19 height=19>

No ... it will all be finished in a couple of weeks.

Last 1/4 Final tonight ... Fiji vs Samoa.

.

[jdinasia]

Recent history has shown that he protests are just pressure movements to attempt to raise awareness.

Governments themselves have gone down this way ...

Thaksin calls a snap election that is voided. Fails to get a valid election in time and his caretaker government becomes extra-constitutional. -- result -- bloodless coup

a year later democracy is restored ... PPP wins ... protesters on the streets again. Samak gets busted for lying about income for an outside source (cooking show) while PM. He is removed from office. (note -- he could have been re-elected immediately) Thaksin's B-I-L steps in. Protests continue. Court dissolves PPP due to taped evidence of a PPP exec making payoffs. Party dissolved BUT not parliament. and a new parliamentary vote is held resulting in Abhisit as PM. (some say the military were directly involved)

later the reds occupy BKK and use violence as a method of protest ... eventually after loss of life on both sides .. Abhisit calls for elections early. PTP wins less than 50% of the popular vote but 53% of seats in the house.

That brings us to today .... the odds that protests bring down the government are small. The odds that the government must either call snap elections OR be disbanded are very high due to the government's actions and policy failures.

[Kitsune]

Recent history has shown that he protests are just pressure movements to attempt to raise awareness.

Governments themselves have gone down this way ...

Thaksin calls a snap election that is voided. Fails to get a valid election in time and his caretaker government becomes extra-constitutional. -- result -- bloodless coup

a year later democracy is restored ... PPP wins ... protesters on the streets again. Samak gets busted for lying about income for an outside source (cooking show) while PM. He is removed from office. (note -- he could have been re-elected immediately) Thaksin's B-I-L steps in. Protests continue. Court dissolves PPP due to taped evidence of a PPP exec making payoffs. Party dissolved BUT not parliament. and a new parliamentary vote is held resulting in Abhisit as PM. (some say the military were directly involved)

later the reds occupy BKK and use violence as a method of protest ... eventually after loss of life on both sides .. Abhisit calls for elections early. PTP wins less than 50% of the popular vote but 53% of seats in the house.

That brings us to today .... the odds that protests bring down the government are small. The odds that the government must either call snap elections OR be disbanded are very high due to the government's actions and policy failures.

Thanks for the recap, did not get everything, but got the gist.. I think....though no idea who is PPP or Samak, or what's with the cooking show... that tells you how clueless I am, and also don't really care.

Anyways.... back to my time-frame question: so government should change ... would you say, in the next 3 months ? 6 months ? year ??

Of course if you 're wrong I will pursue you for ever with my wrath

Thank you !