Thailand political crisis set for crunch weekend

[webfact]

Thailand political crisis set for crunch weekend
by Gael Branchereau

BANGKOK, December 19, 2013 (AFP) - Thailand's political crisis is poised to enter a crucial new phase this weekend as the main opposition mulls a possible boycott of snap polls and protesters ramp up rallies aimed at toppling the government.

Bangkok has been rocked by weeks of street marches, with demonstrators invading government buildings and gathering in their thousands in the latest eruption of political unrest in the turbulent nation.

The protests are calling for democracy to be suspended and want to rid the country of premier Yingluck Shinawatra and the influence of her brother Thaksin -- an ousted billionaire ex-premier who is despised by a coalition of the southern Thai poor, Bangkok middle classes and elite.

They have been joined by the opposition Democrat Party, which resigned en masse from parliament to join rallies.
But analysts say Yingluck's announcement of February 2 elections has thrust the Democrats onto the horns of a dilemma.

If they choose to boycott the poll, Thailand's oldest party risks being excluded from the political process, while a decision to join will dismay protesters who have vowed to disrupt the vote.

"They are damned if they do, damned if they don't," said Paul Chambers director of research at the Institute of South East Asian Affairs at Chiang Mai University.

A Democrat boycott in 2006 helped create the political uncertainty which heralded the military coup that ousted Thaksin.

But Chambers said new election rules have upped the stakes for the opposition, meaning they risk losing their electoral bases.

The party "would be doomed to the wilderness if they boycott and Peau Thai (ruling party) picks up the pro-Democrat constituencies," he said.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, a British-born Oxford educated former premier, has said his party will meet to decide its stance on Saturday a day ahead of a planned major rally by the protesters, who are led by his firebrand former deputy Suthep Thaugsuban.

Experts say the protests are supported by powerful behind-the-scenes forces, in a country where the royalist army and establishment have acted as power brokers in the country, which has seen nearly 20 successful or attempted coups in the last 80 years.

Suthep, who has given caustic nightly speeches against the Shinawatras, has dismissed the election, saying it will install another Thaksin-aligned government.

Earlier rallies have drawn at least 150,000 supporters at their peak to the streets, in some of the largest demonstrations for years in the politically-divided kingdom.

Opposition split over poll boycott
"If the Democrats decide to participate, then Suthep and his movement may have to focus on pushing for a postponement of the polls publicly and perhaps for a coup privately," said Michael Montesano at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

The Democrats appear split over whether to campaign in the upcoming poll or stick with their street allies.
Observers say the army is unlikely to intervene directly this time, but other establishment forces could yet scupper the poll.

Thailand's National Anti-Corruption Commission is mulling whether to charge hundreds of ruling Puea Thai party lawmakers over an attempt to remodel the make-up of Thailand's Senate.

On Thursday the nation's Election Comission also suggested the polls be postponed over fears they will stir more unrest, but agreed to administer the election if parties "insist" on it going ahead.

Corruption is a central theme in the arguments over Thaksin, the billionaire telecoms tycoon-turned-politician who is a hero to many rural communities in the north and northeast.

His policies include nearly-free healthcare and a generous rice subsidy and have helped him and his allies win every election since 2001.

But Thaksin, who lives abroad to avoid a jail term for abuse of power, is loathed by the Bangkok middle classes and elites, who accuse him of using his electoral majority to attempt to consolidate power.

Suthep's People's Democratic Reform Committee has relied on allegations that the former leader is involved in corruption and vote buying as a justification for its suggestion that an unelected "people's council" institute sweeping reforms.

The protesters want these changes in place before new elections in a year or more.

But Suthep is "no stranger" to allegations of corruption, said Sophie Boisseau du Rocher of the Asia Centre in Paris.

A land scandal in 1995 saw him mired in a controversy that precipitated the fall of then-Democrat government.

The 64-year-old "is not a conviction politician who engages in the political battle of ideas and values", she said.

Suthep currently faces an arrest warrant for insurrection linked to the ongoing political crisis.

He is also due to be indicted on January 8 on murder charges linked to his role in a deadly crackdown on pro-Thaksin "Red Shirt" protests in 2010 when he was deputy prime minister under Abhisit.

"This is precisely where the poverty of the Thai political scene is seen in broad daylight," added du Rocher.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2013-12-19

[spirit47]

The democrats are hurry to shovel their own grave...No election without reforms before...What part they dont understand?

[ManopY]

Stupid AFP!

[arthurboy]

Which number crunch weekend, day, protest, march, event, declaration, condemnation etc. etc. is this then?

[kurtgruen]

Actually, for the most part, the above article seems fairly accurate and shedding a bit of light on things, I think

[nickcar]

I wonder why this writer loves to refer to "royalist army" or "royalist generals" and forgets to mention that the vast majority of the population Is royalist.

[Thailand]

"Suspend democracy"?

I think the Thai's should vote on that one!

[Baerboxer]

"Suspend democracy"?

I think the Thai's should vote on that one!

Good idea.

But whose version of democracy ?

[virtualtraveller]

it's pointless calling an election in Thailand 'democracy', it's a joke, we all know that, Peua Thai knows that, and they've got the dosh, so they're laughing all the way to a win-win situation.

[davejones]

"Suspend democracy"?

I think the Thai's should vote on that one!

I don't think democracy is being suspended. The idea is to postpone the election with reforms are put in place. The West has many unelected officials running the show. The PM in Italy wasn't voted for by anyone. Same is true about IMF and other unelected officials that run many countries in Europe and elsewhere. EU is full of unelected officials making up laws as they go along. Many of them illegal, but that doesn't stop them.

Here, MPs have been elected and they can agree to install a short-term interim government. I don't see anything particularly undemocratic about that.

If you think that's undemocratic, then so is MPs voting for other stuff that the majority don't agree with.

[oldthaihand99]

"Suspend democracy"?

I think the Thai's should vote on that one!

While they're at it, how about an online vote to decide:

1. Yingluck resigns immediately. Yes or no?

2. Protests in BKK, etc, end now. Yes or no?

3. Thaksin return to LOS & serve jail time. Yes or no?

4. Suthep reform plan. Yes or no?

[wilgoster]

Let me try my hand at this poll:

1. Ain't gonna happen.

2. Ain't gonna happen.

3. Ain't gonna happen.

4. Ain't gonna happen.

Now, how do I mark my ballot?

[h90]

"Suspend democracy"?

I think the Thai's should vote on that one!

While they're at it, how about an online vote to decide:

1. Yingluck resigns immediately. Yes or no?

2. Protests in BKK, etc, end now. Yes or no?

3. Thaksin return to LOS & serve jail time. Yes or no?

4. Suthep reform plan. Yes or no?

do you pay me 300 Baht for a Yes vote?

[FangFerang]

Why doesn't the press talk about Suthep's corruption charges? I'm sure it has nothing to do with the amart, and that this whole fiasco isn't an opportunistic ploy to create a coup wearing sheep's clothing. Of course not. Thailand would never have a coup, Those reports of previous coups were erroneous.

Where is the rub? as old shake a spear said. It seems to me to be this. One side has the vote, and is seriously out of focus. The other side wants their power back, which is seriously out of focus.

Are there no voices acting for compromise, where minority parties have a say in process? There is. A widely respected scholar suggested that a super-majority be required for Constitutional amendments -- an elegant solution that lets small stakeholders have a say while majority parties still retain an edge....but not the ENTIRE edge. He also suggested such constraints be placed on large ticket items, like the failed rice-pledging scheme and infrastructure budgets. Of course, this an actual actionable plan, and nobody wants anything to do with that. Something simple that does not require ten commitees and an advisry board? That's ridiculous, and way too farang.

The problem is that neither side wants to share power. They want to abuse the system when they are in power and refuse to close those doors. Call them loopholes, or windows of opportunity, but don't deny they exist. Both sides are actively doing this, keeping immunities in place and making sure the system stays dysfunctional.

Of course, the academic was ignored. The notion of sharing power is incomprehensible to either side here in LOS (Land Of Seizures lately).

No side is offering any solution to this impasse beyond vague notions of reforms from Suthep's side (no details how these will be implemented at all) and 'we are on the side of the law' on the Prime Minister's side (without explaining how these issues will ever be addressed) -- this dead end, this gridlock looks like a permanent fixture. Instead both are saying "I am not compromising".

Welcome to the Puppet Show. Been a twenty year run, and still going!

Resume rants.

Edited December 19, 2013 by FangFerang

[waza]

Well there you go, its do or die this weekend, an alledged bad guy and leading an anti government protest verses a convicted criminals proxy government in caretaker mode. Will the Dems join the election process or will cry baby Yingluck and the PTP buckle under mass public protest and resign , all will be revealled by Monday.

[15Peter20]

Well there you go, its do or die this weekend, an alledged bad guy and leading an anti government protest verses a convicted criminals proxy government in caretaker mode. Will the Dems join the election process or will cry baby Yingluck and the PTP buckle under mass public protest and resign , all will be revealled by Monday.

Don't get too excited. It's been 'do or die' several times already over the past month. It's more like 'do or wait for plan B...or C... or D...etc etc'. It all depends on how many he can get on the street. So far even the biggest rally hasn't riled the red shirts. On the contrary, the red's restraint may end up painting the demonstrators into the position of 'agitators', a role that traditional Thai society loathes unless a critical mass can be reached.

[reiltin]

In a country where mushroom pickers get 15 years of fish head soup(re:elderly couple jailed for picking wild mushrooms in National park)and cop killers wrists never feel steel(too many too mention)it's not all peace & love ...As corrupt as Thailand was and continues to be the pre Shinawatra era for those of us lucky enough to have been around was more about " We areThai "-that was the mantra(for good or ill-nevertheless united)The post Shinawatra era muted this collective unity and has ushered year after year more discord together with violence and death-not merely the colour factions-Khru Se,Tak Bai,the war on drugs,human rights activists the list goes on...Should not a good leader(or indeed a good man)foster unity and... if he should falter and become himself a catalyst for odium and division to be noble and exit the fray.Sadly no room for goodness or nobility in this ones heart.