Thai Baht hits weakest level in nearly 4 years as SET continues slump

[aTomsLife]

1 baht down in two months is not a trend. Don't bet the farm on it continuing to go down. It can trade within a baht range every day. We can compare the baht to 7 years ago or 7 minutes ago. In the past 60 days it had gone down 1 baht. I know you would like to stretch that but it really is only one baht. It is well within the day trading range of most currencies. Maybe you would get $2000 more depending on the time of day your trade was made.

You are mistaken. 1 baht in a day is 3%, that is a very wild swing, and is certainly not typical.

Moreover, all indicators seem to point toward a trend of a strengthening dollar, and an economically weaker Thailand. Within the last few years, it's likely we witnessed a peak high for the Thai economy corresponding with a peak low in the U.S.

But, sure, things can change.

In the future, we could very well see again the baht at 30 or less to the dollar. But in the meantime -- which I hope turns out to be years and years -- I'm going to enjoy the relatively weak baht.

52wk Range:28.6100 - 32.6450

Exactly - that is 13%!

Besides, you wrote: "It can trade within a baht range every day", meaning you thought it could swing from 31 to 32 in a day. It doesn't. That's why currency markets are calculated by fractions of a penny.

[Prbkk]

Foreign investors have made a lot out of Thai stocks over the past 18 months. The run up in K Bank is a good example. At under 100 B not so long ago, up to close to 200 for a quality company. The prospect ( and now reality) of a weaker Baht made many cash out of that. This market is for the very brave and it's hard to see much upside in the short term, IMHO.

A moderately lower Baht will be good for the economy but those wishing for 40 against the USD....that level would destroy this country.

[chiang mai]

You are mistaken. 1 baht in a day is 3%, that is a very wild swing, and is certainly not typical.

Moreover, all indicators seem to point toward a trend of a strengthening dollar, and an economically weaker Thailand. Within the last few years, it's likely we witnessed a peak high for the Thai economy corresponding with a peak low in the U.S.

But, sure, things can change.

In the future, we could very well see again the baht at 30 or less to the dollar. But in the meantime -- which I hope turns out to be years and years -- I'm going to enjoy the relatively weak baht.

52wk Range:28.6100 - 32.6450

Exactly - that is 13%!

Besides, you wrote: "It can trade within a baht range every day", meaning you thought it could swing from 31 to 32 in a day. It doesn't. That's why currency markets are calculated by fractions of a penny.

Do you really think I can't find a day where the baht moved more than one baht? 555.

Yes, not in recent years at least, it's quite rare indeed (as in closed more than +/- one baht on the days open:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

Edited December 24, 2013 by chiang mai

[craigt3365]

A few rude posts were removed from view. Please show respect to other members. It is forum rule #1!!

[thailiketoo]

52wk Range:28.6100 - 32.6450

Exactly - that is 13%!

Besides, you wrote: "It can trade within a baht range every day", meaning you thought it could swing from 31 to 32 in a day. It doesn't. That's why currency markets are calculated by fractions of a penny.

Do you really think I can't find a day where the baht moved more than one baht? 555.

You're just trolling now, right? You wrote as if it was a regular occurrence, and I responded that it isn't. I never said it has never happened.

From my previous post: "You are mistaken. 1 baht in a day is 3%, that is a very wild swing, and is certainly not typical."

But you've piqued my curiosity -- how much of a swing was there the day Lehman collapsed?

52wk Range:28.6100 - 32.6450 Last 60 days 1 baht down, is not significant as far as I am concerned. I think the OP is a politically motivated news piece. It is possible to take the argument other places but I think I made the salient point. 1 baht in two months is not a major move in a currency that moves up and down 5 baht in 12 months.

[Naam]

You are mistaken. 1 baht in a day is 3%, that is a very wild swing, and is certainly not typical.

Moreover, all indicators seem to point toward a trend of a strengthening dollar, and an economically weaker Thailand. Within the last few years, it's likely we witnessed a peak high for the Thai economy corresponding with a peak low in the U.S.

But, sure, things can change.

In the future, we could very well see again the baht at 30 or less to the dollar. But in the meantime -- which I hope turns out to be years and years -- I'm going to enjoy the relatively weak baht.

52wk Range:28.6100 - 32.6450

Exactly - that is 13%!

Besides, you wrote: "It can trade within a baht range every day", meaning you thought it could swing from 31 to 32 in a day. It doesn't. That's why currency markets are calculated by fractions of a penny.

Do you really think I can't find a day where the baht moved more than one baht? 555.

Yes, not in recent years at least, it's quite rare indeed (as in closed more than +/- one baht on the days open:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

exactly - it's not 13%.

the title of this thread is "weak Thai Baht please, no weaker", i. e. the emphasis and basis of percentage calculation is the weakening from 28.610 to 32.645, a difference of 4.035 Baht which amounts to 14.10% or for those who like mathematical precision 14.103460328556%

[Hardened Spanker]

Maybe the investors are afraid of some new and costly election promises by the man in Dubai and his clone underminig the already stressed budget

2 months move 1 baht. How afraid is that?

3 baht plus to the euro and if you take the months before that it dropped even more. That is almost 10% or more against the euro.

If the Thai baht were measured against the Euro....... But it's not. It is measured against the dollar and has barely moved one baht. This thread is a sham, scam, or whatever you want to call it. A one baht movement means that the chairman of the Fed blew his nose or some such other economic indicator. The rest is nonsense.

It's actually measured like all currencies against the majors,or major hard currencies trading the Interbanks Foreign Exchange Market,of which it is not one.

And if you think Ben Bernanke stepping down in January plus the Fed turning off the taps,in the biggest financial crisis the World's ever seen is a sneeze,I'd like to reliably inform you that you have no business whatsoever commenting on such matters!

[MJP]

^^ Is it all going really pear shaped, globally? Again?

[metisdead]

A post baiting for off topic discussion has been removed.

[thailiketoo]

2 months move 1 baht. How afraid is that?

3 baht plus to the euro and if you take the months before that it dropped even more. That is almost 10% or more against the euro.

If the Thai baht were measured against the Euro....... But it's not. It is measured against the dollar and has barely moved one baht. This thread is a sham, scam, or whatever you want to call it. A one baht movement means that the chairman of the Fed blew his nose or some such other economic indicator. The rest is nonsense.

It's actually measured like all currencies against the majors,or major hard currencies trading the Interbanks Foreign Exchange Market,of which it is not one.

And if you think Ben Bernanke stepping down in January plus the Fed turning off the taps,in the biggest financial crisis the World's ever seen is a sneeze,I'd like to reliably inform you that you have no business whatsoever commenting on such matters!

No you missed my point or didn't read my post. I said the chairman of the FED sneezing. Just a sneeze not cutting off anything. The FED is watched so closely that a sneeze could move a currency one baht. If the FED were to make changes it could effect the baht far more than a few people in the streets and far more than the minor move of 1 baht in 60 days.

PS The baht in this thread and article is measured against the US dollar. Quoting the OP, "The baht yesterday opened at 32.69-32.71 per US dollar before weakening to 32.75,"

Edited December 24, 2013 by thailiketoo

[aTomsLife]

52wk Range:28.6100 - 32.6450

Exactly - that is 13%!

Besides, you wrote: "It can trade within a baht range every day", meaning you thought it could swing from 31 to 32 in a day. It doesn't. That's why currency markets are calculated by fractions of a penny.

Do you really think I can't find a day where the baht moved more than one baht? 555.

Yes, not in recent years at least, it's quite rare indeed (as in closed more than +/- one baht on the days open:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

exactly - it's not 13%.

the title of this thread is "weak Thai Baht please, no weaker", i. e. the emphasis and basis of percentage calculation is the weakening from 28.610 to 32.645, a difference of 4.035 Baht which amounts to 14.10% or for those who like mathematical precision 14.103460328556%

4.035/28.610 = 14.1%

4.035/32.645 = 12.4%

Wasn't sure which to use, so I just said 13.

Either way, 14% is better as far as I'm concerned.

Edit: By the way, thanks for the correction.

Edited December 24, 2013 by aTomsLife

[craigt3365]

No you missed my point or didn't read my post. I said the chairman of the FED sneezing. Just a sneeze not cutting off anything. The FED is watched so closely that a sneeze could move a currency one baht. If the FED were to make changes it could effect the baht far more than a few people in the streets and far more than the minor move of 1 baht in 60 days.

PS The baht in this thread and article is measured against the US dollar. Quoting the OP, "The baht yesterday opened at 32.69-32.71 per US dollar before weakening to 32.75,"

I think the tapering is already priced in to a certain degree. The recent announcement is part of what started this slide. I'm no financial expert, but that's what I think. The current political BS is part of it also.

Where it goes is anybody's guess! I like stable. Easier to plan.

[thailiketoo]

A couple of weeks ago the central bank modestly trimmed the pace of its monthly asset purchases, by $10 billion to $75 billion, and sought to temper the long-awaited move by suggesting its key interest rate would stay at rock bottom even longer than previously promised.

Is that the ratio. 1 baht to 10 billion US dollars? If so then there is 7 baht more to fall in the next year or so given the interest rate stays close to zero.

[chiang mai]

I don't believe there's a case for that same ratio to apply all the way down to a full tapered QE, yes there may be further devaluation due but it's not on a one for one basis and it's in no way guaranteed.

It's also unclear as to what percentage of the recent devaluation is attributable to tapering and how much is as a result of the political unrest. What I do see however is that BOT appears to have stopped spending foreign currency reserves in support of THB, this for the past three weeks according to latest BOT numbers, that suggests the market is comfortable with the current level of THB.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/StatInternationalReserves.aspx#

[thailiketoo]

Gold is poised to extend losses to the lowest level in more than four years if it breaches a key support that was tested last week, according to Forex Capital Trading Pty. So apparently the really smart money don't give a sh## about Thailand or there really are no problems in Thailand. I mean if the problems were real wouldn't the Thai folk be running to buy gold?

Edited December 24, 2013 by thailiketoo

[chiang mai]

It could mean many things, maybe they think there's no problem, maybe they're already overextended and have no cash to buy, maybe they think that gold will fall further, maybe, maybe, maybe! But I don't think the price of gold is a meaningful indicator since Thailand is only one small part of a global market and any local buying wouldn't dent the global price.

[thailiketoo]

double post

Edited December 24, 2013 by thailiketoo

[thailiketoo]

It could mean many things, maybe they think there's no problem, maybe they're already overextended and have no cash to buy, maybe they think that gold will fall further, maybe, maybe, maybe! But I don't think the price of gold is a meaningful indicator since Thailand is only one small part of a global market and any local buying wouldn't dent the global price.

Maybe. In April gold fell $141 or 9% in one day. Anyone know what caused that?

[chiang mai]

double post

"Someone offered for sale on the NY COMEX open some 400 metric tonnes (12.86 million troy ounces) on April 12, 2013 causing the price of gold to fall 15.5% in two days from the $1,564 close on April 11, 2013. Since then gold has fallen further to a low thus far of $1,183 on June 28, 2013".

[thailiketoo]

It could mean many things, maybe they think there's no problem, maybe they're already overextended and have no cash to buy, maybe they think that gold will fall further, maybe, maybe, maybe! But I don't think the price of gold is a meaningful indicator since Thailand is only one small part of a global market and any local buying wouldn't dent the global price.

Did Cyprus break the gold market? And if a little country like Cyprus could break the gold market imagine what Thailand could do?

[Hardened Spanker]

3 baht plus to the euro and if you take the months before that it dropped even more. That is almost 10% or more against the euro.

If the Thai baht were measured against the Euro....... But it's not. It is measured against the dollar and has barely moved one baht. This thread is a sham, scam, or whatever you want to call it. A one baht movement means that the chairman of the Fed blew his nose or some such other economic indicator. The rest is nonsense.

It's actually measured like all currencies against the majors,or major hard currencies trading the Interbanks Foreign Exchange Market,of which it is not one.

And if you think Ben Bernanke stepping down in January plus the Fed turning off the taps,in the biggest financial crisis the World's ever seen is a sneeze,I'd like to reliably inform you that you have no business whatsoever commenting on such matters!

No you missed my point or didn't read my post. I said the chairman of the FED sneezing. Just a sneeze not cutting off anything. The FED is watched so closely that a sneeze could move a currency one baht. If the FED were to make changes it could effect the baht far more than a few people in the streets and far more than the minor move of 1 baht in 60 days.

PS The baht in this thread and article is measured against the US dollar. Quoting the OP, "The baht yesterday opened at 32.69-32.71 per US dollar before weakening to 32.75,"

IF the Fed were to make changes?

They've just started to taper the quantitative easing that has been bailing the markets out for the last 5 years,do you honestly not realise the significance of this?

Do you not realise that all the markets are at record highs because they are all effectively standing on a chair and the Fed is just about to kick that chair away?

Why do you think they are "only" tapering by 10 billion dollars at a time,if they stopped altogether we would end up back in the Stone Age,believe me!If there is any overly adverse effects on the markets they will raise it to above 100 billion,something they were originally going to do at the start of the so-called "taper"!You say this has no significant effect on the markets?

Words fail me...

[Hardened Spanker]

Double post.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Hardened Spanker

[thailiketoo]

No you missed my point or didn't read my post. I said the chairman of the FED sneezing. Just a sneeze not cutting off anything. The FED is watched so closely that a sneeze could move a currency one baht. If the FED were to make changes it could effect the baht far more than a few people in the streets and far more than the minor move of 1 baht in 60 days.

PS The baht in this thread and article is measured against the US dollar. Quoting the OP, "The baht yesterday opened at 32.69-32.71 per US dollar before weakening to 32.75,"

IF the Fed were to make changes?

They've just started to taper the quantitative easing that has been bailing the markets out for the last 5 years,do you honestly not realise the significance of this?

Do you not realise that all the markets are at record highs because they are all effectively standing on a chair and the Fed is just about to kick that chair away?

Why do you think they are "only" tapering by 10 billion dollars at a time,if they stopped altogether we would end up back in the Stone Age,believe me!If there is any overly adverse effects on the markets they will raise it to above 100 billion,something they were originally going to do at the start of the so-called "taper"!You say this has no significant effect on the markets?

Words fail me...

Don't you read. I said the FED is the most important thing in the financial world. Even a sneeze from the FED can move a currency. I don't know how to put it better. The FED is the single most important organization of the financial world and it's chairman the most important person. Even when he sneezes currencies are moved. I know you really want to criticize me and tell me I'm wrong and start a flame war but we agree. You misinterpreted my first post.

[Naam]

I'm getting a few extra baht on global exchange rate every month, but to be honest I would sooner lose those extra few personal bahts, and see Thailand prosper instead.

let's take a closer look at "those extra few personal Baht"

a British expat living in Thailand based on a budget of £1,500 can spend an additional 15,000 Baht. these "few extra Baht" are double the monthly wages an unskilled Thai employee earns.

[HardenedSoul]

Gold is poised to extend losses to the lowest level in more than four years if it breaches a key support that was tested last week, according to Forex Capital Trading Pty. So apparently the really smart money don't give a sh## about Thailand or there really are no problems in Thailand. I mean if the problems were real wouldn't the Thai folk be running to buy gold?

They are buying gold along with pretty much half of China. The further it tumbles, the more they - and I - will add to my holdings along with more silver.

Asians have a completely different view of gold than we in/from the West do.

We see it as heavy, cumbersome, old-fashioned and not many people will take it in exchange for goods and services.

While I don't know if it's widespread legal tender in China, I do know that they take it very, very seriously as real money and a store of wealth and that, even as the world's largest producer of the metal, they don't export a single ounce. All the gold being sold out of SPDR Gold Trust is heading East and there it's likely to stay.

[Thai at Heart]

love it.. my salary comes in us $ so im very happy now

Thats the spirit!! The country you are living/working in are collapsing around you, but you get a few baht more, so everything is honky donky??

What happend to solidarity and seeing the bigger picture?

Many saw the bigger picture before the crumble, We all paid for the strong baht--Thailand had it's turn now it's ours again, selfish if you like, Thailand has had a few million out of me over the years.

If it's collapsing it is their mismanagement. UP TO THEM, we didn't vote them in. Most of us tried to tell them, but it was not our business.

Do you think bernanke has had more influence over the USD:baht rate or kittirat? Edited December 24, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[Ulic]

If memory serves me correctly 8 months ago they were calling for the SET to hit 1700 and there was discussion

on weather the baht would hit pre 97 levels of 26 to 1 USD. How quickly things can change when reality arrives.

Well these prediction look a little more realistic for the baht to sink a little further to around 33-34 and the set to

rise to 1520 on the strength of exports and tourism.

[Imkah]

"Thai Baht hits weakest level in nearly 4 years".

Good. Let's hope it hits its "weakest" level for 10 years - and the sooner the better.

It has been too artificially high now, for far too long.

It damages the economy because it damages my willingness and ability to buy its products.

It ain't rocket-science.

I take it you are not a Thai citizen and therefore not "embedded" in Thai economy but rather a hired hand or retiree and of no significance to the overall Thai economy. A weakened Baht might up to a certain point be good for exports but then the science actually hits in. It doesn't take a scientist -rocket or other - to see that your willingness to buy equals ability and that your post is of no significance or help whatsoever. I don't even know what rocket science does for the economy or for anything else not related to rockets or space ships or ? Merry X-mas to us all! All we have to do is count our money and blessings and spend accordingly!

[Rimmer]

Off topic post removed

[PlastikbinLina]

My local soup vendor asked me if I supported the protesters.

I said yes.

He then said "that's great! so you're one of us!".

I said no.

He was shocked and asked me as to why I support them then..

I told him that the more the Baht falls, the more money I get and the worse his economy gets and that everything would get more expensive for Thais.

He made a pretty dumb face.

Tomorrow, I'm chartering a huge bus and will bring another 200 protesters to a rally site.

Don't ever let them stop the protests, please.

That is funny, but I would be careful about buying your soup from him (or surrounding vendors) going forward. Thais don't forget stuff that.

Yah, definitely not a good move. Never tell a Thai what you really think!

I too would like to see the baht depreciate more, however.

And sadly the Australian $ is going down along with it. It seems always the case that Australia lags behind the rest of the world, which is now showing signs of improvement.