Complex conflict leaves little room for negotiation: Thai politics

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Complex conflict leaves little room for negotiation
Samadcha Hoonsara
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- There's a need for all sides to condemn political violence, and it should be recognised that violence is not the best solution. The best solution would come through negotiations, but we do not know when that might take place, because the two conflicting parties have almost fully shut the door to it.

The political crisis today in fact involves many conflicts, such as the Yingluck Shinawatra administration versus the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC); the government versus the Election Commission; the government versus the Armed Forces; the government versus the opposition Democrat Party; the government versus some government officials; the government versus rice farmers; the Armed Forces versus the police; the PDRC versus the red-shirt United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, and more.

Many of the people and relationships in these conflicts overlap. Nevertheless, it is the government that is facing the most daunting challenges, because it seems to have no answer to resolve the conflicts beyond pushing the country towards the February 2 snap election no matter what may happen along the way. But the caretaker government is almost unable to function at present.

Thailand has been deeply divided since 2006 and has seen the creation of staunch supporters of the respective sides.

"I must persevere and do not know how long I will have to bear [the situation]," Yingluck was quoted as saying to people close to her in a private moment.

At times, one may feel pity for the caretaker premier, but she accepted her job voluntarily and once she's at the helm it's her responsibility to work to the best of her abilities. One must remember that the flame of protest was partly ignited by the actions of the administration itself.

For those who think military action may allow Thailand a closure, they must remember that a coup would play into the hands of Yingluck. There are sources suggesting that the administration is lobbying global media to keep a close eye on the February 2 election, which is the only card the government has in its hands. If something untoward occurs, it would benefit the government, and the world community is unlikely to accept a coup. Also, the past has lessons to teach the Army.

Thus this Sunday, January 26, will be a testing date, as advance voting is scheduled to take place. The next will be February 2, despite the fact that candidates in 28 constituencies in the South were unable to register their candidacies.

Whether there will be a new Parliament or not, this Sunday is D-Day and could be the turning point, positive or negative, depending on one's respective political view.


-- The Nation 2014-01-24

[Thai at Heart]

It's not complex at all, there is an election coming!

All ptp have to do is get the farmers paid and they win.

Is abhisit campaigning yet?

[EricBerg]

The political crisis today in fact involves many conflicts, such as the Yingluck Shinawatra administration versus the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC); the government versus the Election Commission; the government versus the Armed Forces; the government versus the opposition Democrat Party; the government versus some government officials; the government versus rice farmers; the Armed Forces versus the police; the PDRC versus the red-shirt United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, and more.

The government - led by a fugitive criminal - against everyone. Solution?

[NongKhaiKid]

Little room for negotiation is further reduced when there are people who will not consider negotiation at all or only on their terms.

[kurnell]

When do Thais ever compromise. I have seen staff in my office bickering over petty insults for several years. Nobody holds a grudge like a Thai

[millwall_fan]

given the headline of the article I had hoped that the journalist was going to get to grips with the conflict and give us some real insights - but, i should have known better: just another hi-so Thai scared of the majority and trying to blame the government for everything. What does he mention:

government vs PRDC - Sutheps self appointed mob.

Govt vs election commission - and unelected body of composed of members of the Bangkok elite.

Govt vs the Armed Forces - yep the army are a leading component of the Ruling Elite.

Govt vs Democrats - well sure, thats democracy - or would be if the 'Democrat Party' would accept democracy.

Govt vs 'some government officials - well Govt officials with any ability to influence policy are also member of the Ruling Elite.

Govt vs the rice farmers. The election commission (see above), prevents the govt from selling the rice or borrowing money to fund the scheme and then tells the govt that it is its responsibility ot pay the farmers - Ok we've worked out which side the EC are on!

PRDC v UDAD.- 'nuff said.

The government faces every aspect of the ruling elite at the moment: Army, Civil Service, Judiciary, Opposition party, I just hope the majority of the Thai people hold their nerve on Feb 2nd and vote to end the system of patronage that has run this country for most of the last century.

[bobl]

Negotiation? You don't negotiate with these people you imprison them.

If you start negotiating with every noisemaker that comes along, soon you'll be negotiating with "The People's Popular Front for the Abolition of Traffic Lights"

Handled wrong from the start, his arrest should have happened on day 1.

It's one thing for a country to voice a vote of no confidence in a government thereby forcing an election, it's quite another to try to install yourselves in government - sorry, "committee".

[Thai at Heart]

When do Thais ever compromise. I have seen staff in my office bickering over petty insults for several years. Nobody holds a grudge like a Thai

This is never going to be settled by negotiation. Unheard of. She wants an election, and there is little or nothing Suthep can do to stop it.

[Nowhereman60]

How do you negotiate with a Hitler style mad man, who is blocking citizens right to vote, go to school, or pray. Thailand will be a Nazi Style state soon.

[Siripon]

Suthep and everyone opposed to the present government are simply saying-

' Pheua Thai, can you please exist without being beholden to one man.You claim to be a democracy but every major decision is made by one man,a fugitive on the run. Please learn to stand up for yourselves and stop being servants. We don't want Thailand to end up like the Philippines under Marcos. Then we can reform Thailand together.'

[noitom]

It's not complex at all, there is an election coming!

All ptp have to do is get the farmers paid and they win.

Is abhisit campaigning yet?

It's a certainty that that payoff is in the works privately

[focus27]

given the headline of the article I had hoped that the journalist was going to get to grips with the conflict and give us some real insights - but, i should have known better: just another hi-so Thai scared of the majority and trying to blame the government for everything. What does he mention:

government vs PRDC - Sutheps self appointed mob.

Govt vs election commission - and unelected body of composed of members of the Bangkok elite.

Govt vs the Armed Forces - yep the army are a leading component of the Ruling Elite.

Govt vs Democrats - well sure, thats democracy - or would be if the 'Democrat Party' would accept democracy.

Govt vs 'some government officials - well Govt officials with any ability to influence policy are also member of the Ruling Elite.

Govt vs the rice farmers. The election commission (see above), prevents the govt from selling the rice or borrowing money to fund the scheme and then tells the govt that it is its responsibility ot pay the farmers - Ok we've worked out which side the EC are on!

PRDC v UDAD.- 'nuff said.

The government faces every aspect of the ruling elite at the moment: Army, Civil Service, Judiciary, Opposition party, I just hope the majority of the Thai people hold their nerve on Feb 2nd and vote to end the system of patronage that has run this country for most of the last century.

True, but I can't shrug off the feeling that this administration has helped its opponents by being thoroughly incompetent.

Didn't anybody in government think through all the ramifications of calling an election and the reduced powers of the executive to honour its pledges? Obviously not. In office but not in power.

[millwall_fan]

Suthep and everyone opposed to the present government are simply saying-

' Pheua Thai, can you please exist without being beholden to one man.You claim to be a democracy but every major decision is made by one man,a fugitive on the run. Please learn to stand up for yourselves and stop being servants. We don't want Thailand to end up like the Philippines under Marcos. Then we can reform Thailand together.'

At least PT are only in hoc to one man and we know who he is and he's out of the way in Dubai, whereas the 'Ruling Elite': the shadowy forces that are funding Suthep and have pulled all the strings for the past century and refuse to relinquish power, are unknown and hiding behind electric gates and CCTV cameras with private security and millions if not billions stashed in the safe.

[Siripon]

Suthep and everyone opposed to the present government are simply saying-

' Pheua Thai, can you please exist without being beholden to one man.You claim to be a democracy but every major decision is made by one man,a fugitive on the run. Please learn to stand up for yourselves and stop being servants. We don't want Thailand to end up like the Philippines under Marcos. Then we can reform Thailand together.'

At least PT are only in hoc to one man and we know who he is and he's out of the way in Dubai, whereas the 'Ruling Elite': the shadowy forces that are funding Suthep and have pulled all the strings for the past century and refuse to relinquish power, are unknown and hiding behind electric gates and CCTV cameras with private security and millions if not billions stashed in the safe.

I wish the man Pheua Thai was in hoc to was out of the way but sadly he's still pulling all the strings.

Until then, Thida or any red shirt talking about democracy is just a joke.

[patjem]

Quote: "one must remember that the flame of protest was partly ignited by the actions of the administration itself"

I disagree. It was WHOLLY ignited by their actions. The opposition parties accepted the results of the 2011 election, and parliamentary mechanisms began. The ignition point was the administration's arrogance of not debating policies in a decorative manner, and pushing their agendas in a non-democratic manner, which is the whole point of democratic parliamentary system. There is a point in time when 'discussing with a fool or dictator' becomes futile, as was the case with the following topics:

- amnesty bill.

- senatorial selection

- the questions over the rice scandal / swindle in the censure debate.

- attempts to secure mega-loan off-budget, without clarity of how it would be spent.

- nonchalant insistence that an election must go ahead on a given date without discussion.

The message was made very clear in each case, "it's our way or the highway", "we're not listening". Their arrogance knew no bounds, as YL displayed clearly with her smirk during the censure debate.

The caretaker government themselves created these conditions. Whilst I don't agree with the methods in which various opposition has used, it was inevitable, and they have pushed further towards a state of civil war.

[englishoak]

Yes you negotiate, at least thats what a mature nation worthy of calling itself civilised and even marginally intelligent does. its not even complex, it starts with one apologising for something and the other doing the same. Then an acknowledgement by both sides they want to put the country first and have to accept both are not 100% right about everything.

itll be hard but they are adults they are educated and all thats stopping anyone is something called Naaaaaa

[Siripon]

Yes you negotiate, at least thats what a mature nation worthy of calling itself civilised and even marginally intelligent does. its not even complex, it starts with one apologising for something and the other doing the same. Then an acknowledgement by both sides they want to put the country first and have to accept both are not 100% right about everything.

itll be hard but they are adults they are educated and all thats stopping anyone is something called Naaaaaa

Thakisn has never apologised for anything- his arrogance won't permit it.

[whybother]

Negotiation? You don't negotiate with these people you imprison them.

If you start negotiating with every noisemaker that comes along, soon you'll be negotiating with "The People's Popular Front for the Abolition of Traffic Lights"

Handled wrong from the start, his arrest should have happened on day 1.

It's one thing for a country to voice a vote of no confidence in a government thereby forcing an election, it's quite another to try to install yourselves in government - sorry, "committee".

Yeah, that's TRUE "democracy". Arrest potential protesters before they break the law. 1984.

[noitom]

Amazing that Thaksin has this much staying power and resilience. We can thank the Thai press for keeping him profiled front and center everyday in 80% of the stories for years. Had they not done that and focused on real issues and facts, he may have faded out some.

[whybother]

Amazing that Thaksin has this much staying power and resilience. We can thank the Thai press for keeping him profiled front and center everyday in 80% of the stories for years. Had they not done that and focused on real issues and facts, he may have faded out some.

"he may have faded out some."

Do you really think he would have let that happen? It's not like the media came up with an election campaign of "Thaksin thinks. Peau Thai Does".

[noitom]

Hard to say. The Thai press certainly kept him front and center everyday 5 out 6 stories ad nauseam. Had he had no coverage at all except for facts once in a while, a lot less animosity, acrimony, and venom would have been built up. That's all I was saying. Don't you agree?

[Fryslan boppe]

"There's a need for all sides to condemn political violence, and it should be recognised that violence is not the best solution. The best solution would come through negotiations, but we do not know when that might take place, because the two conflicting parties have almost fully shut the door to it"

>Need for all sides to condemn violence?....Doesn't make sense when it is perpetrated by only one side...This statement advances the notion that there are two protest groups, when in fact there is only one. And that one will rise-or-fall on the basis of how much mayhem they can create....The non-protesting electoral majority has no need for blood-in-the-streets as they will have their say on February 2nd.

>"...the two conflicting parties have almost fully shut the door to it" ....How does one negotiate with coup-mongers expecting anything short of a coup...Ms. Y. has naively tried that, to the point of giving up legislation from their electoral platform and dissolving Parliament...Like she said, "..I have nowhere else to retreat".....One can only credit her for drawing the line to nullification of democracy by the opposition and diluting it to such an extent that the anti-democratic forces would prevail.

Accusing both sides of a non-compromising approach is the same thing as suggesting there are two protesting groups, and mayhem is created by two sides... all three of these notions are erroneous.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Fryslan boppe

[bobl]

Negotiation? You don't negotiate with these people you imprison them.

If you start negotiating with every noisemaker that comes along, soon you'll be negotiating with "The People's Popular Front for the Abolition of Traffic Lights"

Handled wrong from the start, his arrest should have happened on day 1.

It's one thing for a country to voice a vote of no confidence in a government thereby forcing an election, it's quite another to try to install yourselves in government - sorry, "committee".

Yeah, that's TRUE "democracy". Arrest potential protesters before they break the law. 1984.

Who said anything about arresting anyone before they broke the law?

[chadintheusa]

It's not complex at all, there is an election coming!

All ptp have to do is get the farmers paid and they win.

Is abhisit campaigning yet?

Do you really believe that? The election is a farce that will not settle anything. The PT will win the election since they are the only major party competing. However at present it is unlikely that all seats will be filled and so parliament won't be able to sit after the election. Paying farmers billions of baht immediately before an election would be considered shameless vote buying and would be enough grounds to nullify the election. The constitution court has demonstrated their willingness to get involved for much less. If history gives us any clues I would expect that the PM and many of the PT party members could be given bans once their cases come up for trial over the senate bill and the rice scam. Things will be much more complex after the election once the Reds realize that their votes won't result in a functional government.

[chadintheusa]

Negotiation? You don't negotiate with these people you imprison them.

If you start negotiating with every noisemaker that comes along, soon you'll be negotiating with "The People's Popular Front for the Abolition of Traffic Lights"

Handled wrong from the start, his arrest should have happened on day 1.

It's one thing for a country to voice a vote of no confidence in a government thereby forcing an election, it's quite another to try to install yourselves in government - sorry, "committee".

Yeah, that's TRUE "democracy". Arrest potential protesters before they break the law. 1984.

Who said anything about arresting anyone before they broke the law?

Sure, the PT by using the emergency decree has made sure that all the protesters have now broken the law. In fact anyone in Bangkok that has dinner with four friends is now a criminal. Negotiating with the PT and the PM would imply that the PDRC accepts them as a legitmate authority. Their lack of authority is one of their core claims.

[chadintheusa]

Yes you negotiate, at least thats what a mature nation worthy of calling itself civilised and even marginally intelligent does. its not even complex, it starts with one apologising for something and the other doing the same. Then an acknowledgement by both sides they want to put the country first and have to accept both are not 100% right about everything.

itll be hard but they are adults they are educated and all thats stopping anyone is something called Naaaaaa

Thakisn has never apologised for anything- his arrogance won't permit it.

What good is an apology when you won't accept the consquences of your behaviour? Thaksin is a fugitive and is dodging a prison sentence. Saying "I'm sorry" doesn't fix the past and excuse him for the billions he swindled and the thousands that ended up dead during his terms as PM.

[BlueNoseCodger]

The political crisis today in fact involves many conflicts, such as the Yingluck Shinawatra administration versus the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC); the government versus the Election Commission; the government versus the Armed Forces; the government versus the opposition Democrat Party; the government versus some government officials; the government versus rice farmers; the Armed Forces versus the police; the PDRC versus the red-shirt United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, and more.

The government - led by a fugitive criminal - against everyone. Solution?

More like the government and the people versus a few corrupt individuals in state agencies put there by the coup of 2006 trying to install their friend in power by illegal means.

It's easy to forget that Thai chose that government by majority.

[BlueNoseCodger]

given the headline of the article I had hoped that the journalist was going to get to grips with the conflict and give us some real insights - but, i should have known better: just another hi-so Thai scared of the majority and trying to blame the government for everything. What does he mention:

government vs PRDC - Sutheps self appointed mob.

Govt vs election commission - and unelected body of composed of members of the Bangkok elite.

Govt vs the Armed Forces - yep the army are a leading component of the Ruling Elite.

Govt vs Democrats - well sure, thats democracy - or would be if the 'Democrat Party' would accept democracy.

Govt vs 'some government officials - well Govt officials with any ability to influence policy are also member of the Ruling Elite.

Govt vs the rice farmers. The election commission (see above), prevents the govt from selling the rice or borrowing money to fund the scheme and then tells the govt that it is its responsibility ot pay the farmers - Ok we've worked out which side the EC are on!

PRDC v UDAD.- 'nuff said.

The government faces every aspect of the ruling elite at the moment: Army, Civil Service, Judiciary, Opposition party, I just hope the majority of the Thai people hold their nerve on Feb 2nd and vote to end the system of patronage that has run this country for most of the last century.

True, but I can't shrug off the feeling that this administration has helped its opponents by being thoroughly incompetent.

Didn't anybody in government think through all the ramifications of calling an election and the reduced powers of the executive to honour its pledges? Obviously not. In office but not in power.

Govt vs Elite liars in media is one he missed.

How on earth is the timing of the election Yingluk's choice? She stepped down because Suthep marched a mob up to Bangkok! So she called an election. What happened next was laughable, we had to wait all afternoon while Suthep got his speech from his 'higher power' on what his demands were. When it finally arrived it was a joke!

400 unnamed people to be appointed in an unknown way to rule for an undefined amount of time to make unspecified reforms!

I kept waiting for the punchline, but no, this is it. So they've managed to block the rice scheme, and now they're marketing a handful of rice farmers as if thousands of them are descending on Bangkok. But whenever they show a photo, they've lined up less than 30 people with nicely printed flags. Because rural farmers are experts at computer DTP and offset litho flag printing!

Do they really think farmers are so stupid?

Oh boy, Nation, Bangkok Post, you guys are sooooo transparent it's painful.

Edited January 24, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[focus27]

given the headline of the article I had hoped that the journalist was going to get to grips with the conflict and give us some real insights - but, i should have known better: just another hi-so Thai scared of the majority and trying to blame the government for everything. What does he mention:

government vs PRDC - Sutheps self appointed mob.

Govt vs election commission - and unelected body of composed of members of the Bangkok elite.

Govt vs the Armed Forces - yep the army are a leading component of the Ruling Elite.

Govt vs Democrats - well sure, thats democracy - or would be if the 'Democrat Party' would accept democracy.

Govt vs 'some government officials - well Govt officials with any ability to influence policy are also member of the Ruling Elite.

Govt vs the rice farmers. The election commission (see above), prevents the govt from selling the rice or borrowing money to fund the scheme and then tells the govt that it is its responsibility ot pay the farmers - Ok we've worked out which side the EC are on!

PRDC v UDAD.- 'nuff said.

The government faces every aspect of the ruling elite at the moment: Army, Civil Service, Judiciary, Opposition party, I just hope the majority of the Thai people hold their nerve on Feb 2nd and vote to end the system of patronage that has run this country for most of the last century.

True, but I can't shrug off the feeling that this administration has helped its opponents by being thoroughly incompetent.

Didn't anybody in government think through all the ramifications of calling an election and the reduced powers of the executive to honour its pledges? Obviously not. In office but not in power.

Govt vs Elite liars in media is one he missed.

How on earth is the timing of the election Yingluk's choice? She stepped down because Suthep marched a mob up to Bangkok! So she called an election. What happened next was laughable, we had to wait all afternoon while Suthep got his speech from his 'higher power' on what his demands were. When it finally arrived it was a joke!

400 unnamed people to be appointed in an unknown way to rule for an undefined amount of time to make unspecified reforms!

I kept waiting for the punchline, but no, this is it. So they've managed to block the rice scheme, and now they're marketing a handful of rice farmers as if thousands of them are descending on Bangkok. But whenever they show a photo, they've lined up less than 30 people with nicely printed flags. Because rural farmers are experts at computer DTP and offset litho flag printing!

Do they really think farmers are so stupid?

Oh boy, Nation, Bangkok Post, you guys are sooooo transparent it's painful.

I agree with your sentiments on this, however, Suthep did not demand a new election (I know, he wants a senate of his wise rich friends and the plebs can eat cake), it was Yingluck's decision to do that. Having decided that she was going to call a snap election, surely someone in her inner circle would have said something along the lines of,"Calling an election triggers articles in the constitution that limit our powers during the election process. Is there anything we should do before calling this election?" And some bright spark would have checked that they hadn't fully paid their rice farmers. "We better borrow some money to shut them up or they'll cause us grief during the campaign." There are probably other things they could have tidied up but this has come to bite them.

That's all I'm saying - it looks like an infantile political strategy... indeed, it looks like no strategy at all.

[BlueNoseCodger]

Govt vs Elite liars in media is one he missed.

How on earth is the timing of the election Yingluk's choice? She stepped down because Suthep marched a mob up to Bangkok! So she called an election. What happened next was laughable, we had to wait all afternoon while Suthep got his speech from his 'higher power' on what his demands were. When it finally arrived it was a joke!

400 unnamed people to be appointed in an unknown way to rule for an undefined amount of time to make unspecified reforms!

I kept waiting for the punchline, but no, this is it. So they've managed to block the rice scheme, and now they're marketing a handful of rice farmers as if thousands of them are descending on Bangkok. But whenever they show a photo, they've lined up less than 30 people with nicely printed flags. Because rural farmers are experts at computer DTP and offset litho flag printing!

Do they really think farmers are so stupid?

Oh boy, Nation, Bangkok Post, you guys are sooooo transparent it's painful.

I agree with your sentiments on this, however, Suthep did not demand a new election (I know, he wants a senate of his wise rich friends and the plebs can eat cake), it was Yingluck's decision to do that. Having decided that she was going to call a snap election, surely someone in her inner circle would have said something along the lines of,"Calling an election triggers articles in the constitution that limit our powers during the election process. Is there anything we should do before calling this election?" And some bright spark would have checked that they hadn't fully paid their rice farmers. "We better borrow some money to shut them up or they'll cause us grief during the campaign." There are probably other things they could have tidied up but this has come to bite them.

That's all I'm saying - it looks like an infantile political strategy... indeed, it looks like no strategy at all.

If she hadn't called elections and defused the mob, the army would have used to mob as the excuse to remove her.

Infantile to call elections when faced with a dictators mob? I don't think so. If it was, then why are they so keen to prevent elections?