US and EU expand sanctions on Russia

Publicus · July 31, 2014

The Europeans have joined the U.S. in some pretty tough sanctions which are reverberating throughout the Russian economy.

Russian stocks fell 10% to an 11-week low, Rosneft shares and bonds fell.

The new sanctions by the U.S. and Europe add to grief delivered to Moscow by a court in the Hague that earlier this week ruled Russia must compensate the former owners of Yukos oil company $50 billion, which also which means Rosneft oil will be sued next in the Hague by Russian investors so Rosneft shares and value are also falling hard.

The Europeans are just not screwing around this time.

The Russian economy is verging on recession which very likely means a recession is now virtually inevitable.

US and Europe hit Russia with toughest sanctions yet

"The decision today was inevitable," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, urging the Russian leadership to "pursue the path of de-escalation and cooperation."

Europe's sanctions will notably make it tougher for Russian state-owned banks to access European financial markets, forcing their costs higher and hobbling an already struggling economy.

EU ambassadors also agreed to impose asset freezes and visa bans on four close Putin business associates, the first time the bloc has targeted such figures.

http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-claim-kiev-now-controls-part-mh17-202130990.html;_ylt=A0SO8wSRINpTQ0QAKeBXNyoA

Visa and Master Card have stopped servicing four of Russia's five largest banks and the capital markets in both the U.S. and Europe are virtually closed now to Russia.

The bluster from some people around here that Russia will demand energy payments in Rubles, RMB or in gold and will bust the USD is a lot of hot air. Putin this time has sh*t the bed.

It is not Putin that has sh*t the bed. It is the US. Since Putin dumped so many treasuires after the first round of saanctions, the US had to create this phantom proxy buyer in Belgium to make up the diffrence.

US phantom proxy buyer ? Or did Belgium all of a sudden, discover and bring a few billion barrels of oil to market ? You decide.

There's nothing real to decide.

Anti-globalism reactionary right wingnut media are cheerfully and tantalizingly concocting a new and sinister creation, i.e., that Putin is going to destroy the U.S. economy, the USD$, Anglo-American civilization itself, probably in one fell swoop. They're delighted with themselves for cooking up this latest greasy dish.

I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. I'd prefer Putin demand the payment in Rubles or RMB or gold rather than cheeseburgers given I'm partial to cheeseburgers, which would anyway benefit Putin more due to the greater and more direct impact on the U.S. of his demanding cheeseburgers than Rubles, RMB or gold.

The total of withdrawals by Russians of U.S. government financial instruments from the custody account of the U.S. New York Federal Reserve by the end of the past March, $105 billion, was indeed a radical sum of value.

It is noted the action was a withdrawal, not a cashing of the instruments. Putin would wreck the Ruble and the Russian economy overnight by cashing such a sum of money so suddenly or even over a period of many months. So too would the Boyz in Beijing in respect of their currency value and their economy and financial system if they were to do the same. No realistic amount of gold holdings by either Moscow or Beijing could avoid or preclude these radical and catastrophic realities to either or to both.

New York Fed custody holdings of U.S. Treasury securities kept in the accounts of certain foreign officials' and particular central banks have fallen almost every week since mid-December, as weakness in emerging-market currencies has caused emerging market central banks to raise dollars by liquidating their U.S. Treasury holdings, and then turn around and sell those dollars on the open market in order to prop up their own wobbling currencies.

It is thus clear emerging market central banks have played a role in selling Treasuries and precipitating the record drop of NY Fed custody holdings.

Of far greater significance however is the fact the U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control would prevent any custodial bank in the United States, to include the U.S. Federal Reserve, from releasing its custodial hold of Treasuries that had been purchased by suddenly sanctioned foreign individuals, banks, institutions.

The tumult in Eurasia has brought sanctions and more sanctions to now include western European governments. As foreign holders of Treasuries saw U.S. sanctions first coming during the first quarter of the year, they yanked their holdings from Fed custody to be safe. This includes now sanctioned individuals and institutions in Russia. The tired old line that U.S. sanctions are window dressing is in indeed a line that has long since become fagged out, stale, vacuous, to include the same empty claims against the European sanctions imposed on Russia this week.

Note that Belgium as a custodian is not under any U.S. sanctions nor would it be placed under any U.S. sanctions relative to the crisis in Eurasia.

Further, a simple shift of custodians (from the Fed to Belgium) would not impact yields in the Treasury market nor would it affect the U.S. economy, financial system, the USD$ or the U.S. government's fiscal position. The CCP Boyz in Beijing pulled a similar PR stunt last December, bulging Belgium banks with $57 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings with no impact on the United States.

Meanwhile the cheesy anti-global extreme radical right fruitcakes continue their circle jerk party.

Edited July 31, 2014 by Publicus

craigt3365 · August 1, 2014

A post with a link to a foreign language website has been removed from view. This is an English language forum. The only place foreign languages are allowed is in the Thai language sub forum.

F430murci · August 1, 2014

The Europeans have joined the U.S. in some pretty tough sanctions which are reverberating throughout the Russian economy.

Russian stocks fell 10% to an 11-week low, Rosneft shares and bonds fell.

The new sanctions by the U.S. and Europe add to grief delivered to Moscow by a court in the Hague that earlier this week ruled Russia must compensate the former owners of Yukos oil company $50 billion, which also which means Rosneft oil will be sued next in the Hague by Russian investors so Rosneft shares and value are also falling hard.

The Europeans are just not screwing around this time.

The Russian economy is verging on recession which very likely means a recession is now virtually inevitable.

US and Europe hit Russia with toughest sanctions yet

"The decision today was inevitable," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, urging the Russian leadership to "pursue the path of de-escalation and cooperation."

Europe's sanctions will notably make it tougher for Russian state-owned banks to access European financial markets, forcing their costs higher and hobbling an already struggling economy.

EU ambassadors also agreed to impose asset freezes and visa bans on four close Putin business associates, the first time the bloc has targeted such figures.

http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-claim-kiev-now-controls-part-mh17-202130990.html;_ylt=A0SO8wSRINpTQ0QAKeBXNyoA

Visa and Master Card have stopped servicing four of Russia's five largest banks and the capital markets in both the U.S. and Europe are virtually closed now to Russia.

The bluster from some people around here that Russia will demand energy payments in Rubles, RMB or in gold and will bust the USD is a lot of hot air. Putin this time has sh*t the bed.

It is not Putin that has sh*t the bed. It is the US. Since Putin dumped so many treasuires after the first round of saanctions, the US had to create this phantom proxy buyer in Belgium to make up the diffrence.

US phantom proxy buyer ? Or did Belgium all of a sudden, discover and bring a few billion barrels of oil to market ? You decide.

There's nothing real to decide.

Anti-globalism reactionary right wingnut media are cheerfully and tantalizingly concocting a new and sinister creation, i.e., that Putin is going to destroy the U.S. economy, the USD$, Anglo-American civilization itself, probably in one fell swoop. They're delighted with themselves for cooking up this latest greasy dish.

I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. I'd prefer Putin demand the payment in Rubles or RMB or gold rather than cheeseburgers given I'm partial to cheeseburgers, which would anyway benefit Putin more due to the greater and more direct impact on the U.S. of his demanding cheeseburgers than Rubles, RMB or gold.

The total of withdrawals by Russians of U.S. government financial instruments from the custody account of the U.S. New York Federal Reserve by the end of the past March, $105 billion, was indeed a radical sum of value.

It is noted the action was a withdrawal, not a cashing of the instruments. Putin would wreck the Ruble and the Russian economy overnight by cashing such a sum of money so suddenly or even over a period of many months. So too would the Boyz in Beijing in respect of their currency value and their economy and financial system if they were to do the same. No realistic amount of gold holdings by either Moscow or Beijing could avoid or preclude these radical and catastrophic realities to either or to both.

New York Fed custody holdings of U.S. Treasury securities kept in the accounts of certain foreign officials' and particular central banks have fallen almost every week since mid-December, as weakness in emerging-market currencies has caused emerging market central banks to raise dollars by liquidating their U.S. Treasury holdings, and then turn around and sell those dollars on the open market in order to prop up their own wobbling currencies.

It is thus clear emerging market central banks have played a role in selling Treasuries and precipitating the record drop of NY Fed custody holdings.

Of far greater significance however is the fact the U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control would prevent any custodial bank in the United States, to include the U.S. Federal Reserve, from releasing its custodial hold of Treasuries that had been purchased by suddenly sanctioned foreign individuals, banks, institutions.

The tumult in Eurasia has brought sanctions and more sanctions to now include western European governments. As foreign holders of Treasuries saw U.S. sanctions first coming during the first quarter of the year, they yanked their holdings from Fed custody to be safe. This includes now sanctioned individuals and institutions in Russia. The tired old line that U.S. sanctions are window dressing is in indeed a line that has long since become fagged out, stale, vacuous, to include the same empty claims against the European sanctions imposed on Russia this week.

Note that Belgium as a custodian is not under any U.S. sanctions nor would it be placed under any U.S. sanctions relative to the crisis in Eurasia.

Further, a simple shift of custodians (from the Fed to Belgium) would not impact yields in the Treasury market nor would it affect the U.S. economy, financial system, the USD$ or the U.S. government's fiscal position. The CCP Boyz in Beijing pulled a similar PR stunt last December, bulging Belgium banks with $57 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings with no impact on the United States.

Meanwhile the cheesy anti-global extreme radical right fruitcakes continue their circle jerk party.

Pfft, let him go on and on. His statements reflect he knows exactly zilch about finance, debt structure or Russia and China economies.

Russia brought a lot of money back into Russia to protect against sanctions. No surprise there.

Russias holdings in U.S. government debt is a foreign exchange reserve built up by Russia to protect against financial crises, stabilize its own currency, and to enable banks and other businesses to function during financially stressful times. Russia's holdings in U.S. debt isnt a benevolent action to help their pals in the US pay their bills. Russia's holdings permits its fragile economy function in a world that trades primarily in U.S. dollars.

Dumping US bonds raises interest rates in the U.S., but it also drastically lowers the price of the same bonds Russia would being trying to sell thereby causing massive losses in Russia's foreign-exchange fund. Russia could try and sell assets slowly, but that would have no impact on the US. The Fed is currently buying $35 billion of debt a month, and it could buy up Russias entire stockpile of debt in less than six months just by maintaining its current policy.

Now if US wanted to screw Russia, release oil reserves and drive gas prices down and Russian economy implodes virtually overnight, but alas we are still playing nice. This is why the MICEX continued to remain somewhat stable.

Harsh Jones · August 1, 2014

The Europeans have joined the U.S. in some pretty tough sanctions which are reverberating throughout the Russian economy.

Russian stocks fell 10% to an 11-week low, Rosneft shares and bonds fell.

The new sanctions by the U.S. and Europe add to grief delivered to Moscow by a court in the Hague that earlier this week ruled Russia must compensate the former owners of Yukos oil company $50 billion, which also which means Rosneft oil will be sued next in the Hague by Russian investors so Rosneft shares and value are also falling hard.

The Europeans are just not screwing around this time.

The Russian economy is verging on recession which very likely means a recession is now virtually inevitable.

US and Europe hit Russia with toughest sanctions yet

"The decision today was inevitable," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, urging the Russian leadership to "pursue the path of de-escalation and cooperation."

Europe's sanctions will notably make it tougher for Russian state-owned banks to access European financial markets, forcing their costs higher and hobbling an already struggling economy.

EU ambassadors also agreed to impose asset freezes and visa bans on four close Putin business associates, the first time the bloc has targeted such figures.

http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-claim-kiev-now-controls-part-mh17-202130990.html;_ylt=A0SO8wSRINpTQ0QAKeBXNyoA

Visa and Master Card have stopped servicing four of Russia's five largest banks and the capital markets in both the U.S. and Europe are virtually closed now to Russia.

The bluster from some people around here that Russia will demand energy payments in Rubles, RMB or in gold and will bust the USD is a lot of hot air. Putin this time has sh*t the bed.

It is not Putin that has sh*t the bed. It is the US. Since Putin dumped so many treasuires after the first round of saanctions, the US had to create this phantom proxy buyer in Belgium to make up the diffrence.

US phantom proxy buyer ? Or did Belgium all of a sudden, discover and bring a few billion barrels of oil to market ? You decide.

There's nothing real to decide.

Anti-globalism reactionary right wingnut media are cheerfully and tantalizingly concocting a new and sinister creation, i.e., that Putin is going to destroy the U.S. economy, the USD$, Anglo-American civilization itself, probably in one fell swoop. They're delighted with themselves for cooking up this latest greasy dish.

I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. I'd prefer Putin demand the payment in Rubles or RMB or gold rather than cheeseburgers given I'm partial to cheeseburgers, which would anyway benefit Putin more due to the greater and more direct impact on the U.S. of his demanding cheeseburgers than Rubles, RMB or gold.

The total of withdrawals by Russians of U.S. government financial instruments from the custody account of the U.S. New York Federal Reserve by the end of the past March, $105 billion, was indeed a radical sum of value.

It is noted the action was a withdrawal, not a cashing of the instruments. Putin would wreck the Ruble and the Russian economy overnight by cashing such a sum of money so suddenly or even over a period of many months. So too would the Boyz in Beijing in respect of their currency value and their economy and financial system if they were to do the same. No realistic amount of gold holdings by either Moscow or Beijing could avoid or preclude these radical and catastrophic realities to either or to both.

New York Fed custody holdings of U.S. Treasury securities kept in the accounts of certain foreign officials' and particular central banks have fallen almost every week since mid-December, as weakness in emerging-market currencies has caused emerging market central banks to raise dollars by liquidating their U.S. Treasury holdings, and then turn around and sell those dollars on the open market in order to prop up their own wobbling currencies.

It is thus clear emerging market central banks have played a role in selling Treasuries and precipitating the record drop of NY Fed custody holdings.

Of far greater significance however is the fact the U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control would prevent any custodial bank in the United States, to include the U.S. Federal Reserve, from releasing its custodial hold of Treasuries that had been purchased by suddenly sanctioned foreign individuals, banks, institutions.

The tumult in Eurasia has brought sanctions and more sanctions to now include western European governments. As foreign holders of Treasuries saw U.S. sanctions first coming during the first quarter of the year, they yanked their holdings from Fed custody to be safe. This includes now sanctioned individuals and institutions in Russia. The tired old line that U.S. sanctions are window dressing is in indeed a line that has long since become fagged out, stale, vacuous, to include the same empty claims against the European sanctions imposed on Russia this week.

Note that Belgium as a custodian is not under any U.S. sanctions nor would it be placed under any U.S. sanctions relative to the crisis in Eurasia.

Further, a simple shift of custodians (from the Fed to Belgium) would not impact yields in the Treasury market nor would it affect the U.S. economy, financial system, the USD$ or the U.S. government's fiscal position. The CCP Boyz in Beijing pulled a similar PR stunt last December, bulging Belgium banks with $57 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings with no impact on the United States.

Meanwhile the cheesy anti-global extreme radical right fruitcakes continue their circle jerk party.

I didn't know that acknowledging basic arithmetic meant that you were an anti globalist. That's a funny one. But people that questioned the arithmetic regarding the Pound Sterling before it lost reserve currency status were told by the mainstream and the propagandists that they didn't know anything about economics too.

The US is a debtor nation with a current account deficit that relies on external creditors for support. (Just like the Asian Tigers in the 90's.) The main difference is that the US relies on petrodollar hegemony to keep feeding the government and trade deficit. By forcing the petrodollar on the world, there is no spur and brake mechanism in place to reverse trade or capital flows.

Wikipedia

Petrodollar

Origin

In 1971 Richard Nixon was forced to close the gold window taking the U.S. off the gold standard and setting into motion a massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar. In an effort to prop up the value of the dollar Nixon negotiated a deal with Saudi Arabia that in exchange for arms and protection they would denominate all future oil sales in U.S. dollars. Subsequently, the other OPEC countries agreed to similar deals thus ensuring a global demand for U.S. dollars and allowing the U.S. to export some of its inflation.^[1] Since these dollars did not circulate within the country they were not part of the normal money supply, economists felt another term was necessary to describe the dollars received by petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) in exchange for oil, so the term petrodollar was coined by Georgetown University economics professor, Ibrahim Oweiss.

Financial impact

In the existing system, all transactions actually must be settled in U.S. dollars, creating a world-wide demand for dollars. The petrodollar system also meant that the U.S., the largest consumer of oil in the world, gained the power to buy oil with a currency it can print at will.

Now somebody is trying to re-create the big bad USSR and that somebody is the USA. Not Russia. This conflict in the Ukraine is simply the US fighting for petrodollar hegemony. That's what its always about. And the US certainly knows that Putin will not continue to subsidize the obscene and grossly profligate spending and capital waste that is America Inc.

Forbes

3/21/2013

Russia's Rosneft Surpasses ExxonMobil To Become World's Biggest Oil Co.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/03/21/russias-rosneft-surpasses-exxonmobil-to-become-worlds-biggest-oil-co/

Forbes

Russia's Gazprom is the world's largest producer of natural gas.

http://www.forbes.com/pictures/mef45glfe/2-gazprom-9-7-million-barrels-per-day-3/

Just because you don't think this can be perpetuated forever , doesn't make you an anti globalist.

.

Publicus · August 1, 2014

A certain group of people are eager and chomping at the bit to see the U.S. dollar destroyed or reduced to insignificance and with it, the economy and the financial systems of the United States.

The reasons remain unclear as the direct beneficiary of any such destruction would be the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the gangsters in Moscow, among other unsavory characters globally such as Kim Jong Un and his collection of loonies In fact, the actors to precipitate such nefarious goals and purposes would also have to be Beijing and Moscow, as the entire economies and financial systems of the G-7 democracies would likewise collapse.

The U.S. is free to run up its debt because it is the global currency. Remove the USD$ as the global currency and suddenly the U.S. debt becomes a super serious problem for the United States and the existing world order. So the rich countries, democracies all, will not allow or accept any such grand design wherever its origin.

All the same, I reiterate that I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. Where's the beef in these yappings that are only a big bun with a pinch of cheese?

What is happening however is that the G-7 countries have agreed to vote at the World Bank to stop $1.5 billion of pending projects for Russia. Also happening is that, at the demand of its shareholders, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week said it is halting new Russia projects after a majority indicated it would not support them

Russia defaulted on its debit in 1998, as did Argentina in 2002. (Argentina went into default again this week as a U.S. District Court judge in New York ruled the Argentine government must pay U.S. bondholders on demand for post-default bonds. Argentina now is facing a devalued currency to preserve its forex reserves, a devaluation that could trigger dangerous inflation currently on a course to 40% annually. S&P has already lowered Argentina's foreign currency rating.)

Russia defaulted in 1998 in part due to carry over Soviet Union debt, but old Soviet debt was not the primary reason of the default, nor were decreasing oil prices. The primary cause of the Russian default (aka The Ruble Crisis) was not the fall of oil prices directly, but the result of non-payment of taxes by the energy and manufacturing industries. Are these oligarchs paying taxes today? What do you think?

Beyond oil and reserves, Russia running on empty

The International Monetary Fund warned in May that Moscow had no contingency plan for oil prices to fall significantly below $100 pb, so a sustained decline in the price of crude could even undermine Putin’s grip on power.

"If the oil price goes down to $75 and stays there for a few years, Russia will have regime change," said a prominent Russian economist who asked not to be named.

"Two years ago I would have said $60, but now, given the lack of growth, the increase in corruption and sanctions, $75 would be enough."

http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-oil-reserves-russia-running-empty-141751780--sector.html

Putin in the Ukraine and in Moscow has sh*t the bed big time.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Publicus

Harsh Jones · August 1, 2014

A certain group of people are eager and chomping at the bit to see the U.S. dollar destroyed or reduced to insignificance and with it, the economy and the financial systems of the United States.

The reasons remain unclear as the direct beneficiary of any such destruction would be the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the gangsters in Moscow, among other unsavory characters globally such as Kim Jong Un and his collection of loonies In fact, the actors to precipitate such nefarious goals and purposes would also have to be Beijing and Moscow, as the entire economies and financial systems of the G-7 democracies would likewise collapse.

The U.S. is free to run up its debt because it is the global currency. Remove the USD$ as the global currency and suddenly the U.S. debt becomes a super serious problem for the United States and the existing world order. So the rich countries, democracies all, will not allow or accept any such grand design wherever its origin.

All the same, I reiterate that I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. Where's the beef in these yappings that are only a big bun with a pinch of cheese?

What is happening however is that the G-7 countries have agreed to vote at the World Bank to stop $1.5 billion of pending projects for Russia. Also happening is that, at the demand of its shareholders, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week said it is halting new Russia projects after a majority indicated it would not support them

Russia defaulted on its debit in 1998, as did Argentina in 2002. (Argentina went into default again this week as a U.S. District Court judge in New York ruled the Argentine government must pay U.S. bondholders on demand for post-default bonds. Argentina now is facing a devalued currency to preserve its forex reserves, a devaluation that could trigger dangerous inflation currently on a course to 40% annually. S&P has already lowered Argentina's foreign currency rating.)

Russia defaulted in 1998 in part due to carry over Soviet Union debt, but old Soviet debt was not the primary reason of the default, nor were decreasing oil prices. The primary cause of the Russian default (aka The Ruble Crisis) was not the fall of oil prices directly, but the result of non-payment of taxes by the energy and manufacturing industries. Are these oligarchs paying taxes today? What do you think?

Beyond oil and reserves, Russia running on empty

The International Monetary Fund warned in May that Moscow had no contingency plan for oil prices to fall significantly below $100 pb, so a sustained decline in the price of crude could even undermine Putin’s grip on power.

"If the oil price goes down to $75 and stays there for a few years, Russia will have regime change," said a prominent Russian economist who asked not to be named.

"Two years ago I would have said $60, but now, given the lack of growth, the increase in corruption and sanctions, $75 would be enough."

http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-oil-reserves-russia-running-empty-141751780--sector.html

Putin in the Ukraine and in Moscow has sh*t the bed big time.

The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html

Russia’s second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.

-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro

-The Euro represents more people then the USD

-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)

-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit

-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner

-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

Publicus · August 1, 2014

And let's be clear about the word "dumping" or "dump" as this meaning is being thrown around here very loosely and irresponsibly.

Two events during the present Eurasia chaos have raised concerns about an attack on the U.;S. Treasury market.

First, an advisor to Putin warned that Russia could respond to U.S. sanctions by dumping its holdings of U.S. government bonds. Then, a sudden $100 billion drop in the amount of Treasuries held at the New York Federal Reserve on behalf of foreign central banks excited a bunch of anti-West finance wonks to pronounce that Russia was following through on the threat.

The fact is no "dumping" has occurred. No major sell-off has ensued. Mainstream economists and governments have instead concluded that the $100 billion was simply shifted to a different country, Belgium as it turned out, for safekeeping.

It's anyway the case that Russia's holdings of U.S. Treasuries aren't large enough to get much attention or respect: As of the end of January, they amounted to $132 billion, or about 2 percent of all foreign holdings of U.S. government bonds.

The long and the short of it is that Russian individuals and institutions alike that feared sanctions, which have come in increasing waves, or an assets freeze which has not occurred, yanked their U.S. Treasury instruments from the custody of the NY Fed to put them into the custody of the Belgian central bank. The instruments remain intact awaiting their maturity dates.

The very short of it is that there's been no "dumping." Putin has the runs but not for U.S. Treasuries.

Meanwhile back in Washington....and from the New York Times....

U.S. Could Help Ukraine Target Rebels' Missiles

July 27, 2014

The Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies are developing plans that would enable the Obama administration to provide specific locations of surface-to-air missiles controlled by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine so the Ukrainian government could target them for destruction, American officials said.

Associated Press

FILE photo: A Russian air defense missile system SA-11 launcher is on display at the opening of the MAKS Air Show in Zhukovsky outside Moscow

But the proposal has not yet been debated in the White House, a senior administration official said. It is unclear whether President Barack Obama, who has already approved limited intelligence sharing with Ukraine, will agree to give more precise information about potential military targets, a step that would involve the United States more deeply in the conflict.

"You've got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives," Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said. "They clearly are on a path to assert themselves differently not just in Eastern Europe, but Europe in the main, and towards the United States."

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/u-s-could-help-ukraine-target-rebels-missiles-565954

Publicus · August 1, 2014

A certain group of people are eager and chomping at the bit to see the U.S. dollar destroyed or reduced to insignificance and with it, the economy and the financial systems of the United States.

The reasons remain unclear as the direct beneficiary of any such destruction would be the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the gangsters in Moscow, among other unsavory characters globally such as Kim Jong Un and his collection of loonies In fact, the actors to precipitate such nefarious goals and purposes would also have to be Beijing and Moscow, as the entire economies and financial systems of the G-7 democracies would likewise collapse.

The U.S. is free to run up its debt because it is the global currency. Remove the USD$ as the global currency and suddenly the U.S. debt becomes a super serious problem for the United States and the existing world order. So the rich countries, democracies all, will not allow or accept any such grand design wherever its origin.

All the same, I reiterate that I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. Where's the beef in these yappings that are only a big bun with a pinch of cheese?

What is happening however is that the G-7 countries have agreed to vote at the World Bank to stop $1.5 billion of pending projects for Russia. Also happening is that, at the demand of its shareholders, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week said it is halting new Russia projects after a majority indicated it would not support them

Russia defaulted on its debit in 1998, as did Argentina in 2002. (Argentina went into default again this week as a U.S. District Court judge in New York ruled the Argentine government must pay U.S. bondholders on demand for post-default bonds. Argentina now is facing a devalued currency to preserve its forex reserves, a devaluation that could trigger dangerous inflation currently on a course to 40% annually. S&P has already lowered Argentina's foreign currency rating.)

Russia defaulted in 1998 in part due to carry over Soviet Union debt, but old Soviet debt was not the primary reason of the default, nor were decreasing oil prices. The primary cause of the Russian default (aka The Ruble Crisis) was not the fall of oil prices directly, but the result of non-payment of taxes by the energy and manufacturing industries. Are these oligarchs paying taxes today? What do you think?

Beyond oil and reserves, Russia running on empty

The International Monetary Fund warned in May that Moscow had no contingency plan for oil prices to fall significantly below $100 pb, so a sustained decline in the price of crude could even undermine Putin’s grip on power.

"If the oil price goes down to $75 and stays there for a few years, Russia will have regime change," said a prominent Russian economist who asked not to be named.

"Two years ago I would have said $60, but now, given the lack of growth, the increase in corruption and sanctions, $75 would be enough."

http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-oil-reserves-russia-running-empty-141751780--sector.html

Putin in the Ukraine and in Moscow has sh*t the bed big time.

The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html

Russia’s second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.

-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro

-The Euro represents more people then the USD

-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)

-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit

-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner

-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

I see you've changed your tact away from saying Russia and China are going to bust the USD$, the U.S. economy and financial systems, Anglo-American civilization as you guys often call it, thereby freeing all the oppressed people of the world into the hands of Moscow and Beijing. You're prudent to shut up about that.

So now you need to specify precisely what you mean when you say, "The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be."

Tell us in precise terms - some few examples will do - how will the world be better off by pursuing your way, the United States included. Your concerns for the United States, the G-7, the G-20 are not exactly at the top of your posts....or anywhere in your posts.

Are you one of the gold bugs that wants to take monetary systems back to the 19th century and its continuing roller coaster cycles of boom-bust. The historical record shows the inflexibility of the gold standard in modern economics and finance, in people's everyday lives. Ron Paul always missed this aspect of society, i.e., people's everyday lives.

You need to address the following especially and in particular.....

Why the Dollar Remains the Reserve Currency

The world still clamors for dollars and there is no sign this will end. The world is so eager for protection against financial market mayhem, and there’s such a dearth of safe assets, so people may be willing to pay a high price for safety. It is plausible that there could come a tipping point when foreign and domestic investors lose confidence in the dollar. But this would create turmoil in financial markets worldwide. And that would cause investors to run for cover—right back into the arms of the dollar! So, till a better alternative comes along, for the foreseeable future the world is stuck in the dollar trap.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/qa-why-the-dollar-remains-the-reserve-currency/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

Harsh Jones · August 1, 2014

@ Publicus

In a world where we seen George Soros take down the Bank of England , it is not at all out of the realm of possibility , that Putin could do serous damage with the leverage he has over the Fed.

So after Washington initiates a coup on Ukraine , they plan on arming the govt that they installed ? This is not news. Nor do I see how this proves your point that Russia is the USSR boogeyman.

It proves that the US is trying to re create the USSR

Harsh Jones · August 1, 2014

A certain group of people are eager and chomping at the bit to see the U.S. dollar destroyed or reduced to insignificance and with it, the economy and the financial systems of the United States.

The reasons remain unclear as the direct beneficiary of any such destruction would be the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the gangsters in Moscow, among other unsavory characters globally such as Kim Jong Un and his collection of loonies In fact, the actors to precipitate such nefarious goals and purposes would also have to be Beijing and Moscow, as the entire economies and financial systems of the G-7 democracies would likewise collapse.

The U.S. is free to run up its debt because it is the global currency. Remove the USD$ as the global currency and suddenly the U.S. debt becomes a super serious problem for the United States and the existing world order. So the rich countries, democracies all, will not allow or accept any such grand design wherever its origin.

All the same, I reiterate that I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. Where's the beef in these yappings that are only a big bun with a pinch of cheese?

What is happening however is that the G-7 countries have agreed to vote at the World Bank to stop $1.5 billion of pending projects for Russia. Also happening is that, at the demand of its shareholders, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week said it is halting new Russia projects after a majority indicated it would not support them

Russia defaulted on its debit in 1998, as did Argentina in 2002. (Argentina went into default again this week as a U.S. District Court judge in New York ruled the Argentine government must pay U.S. bondholders on demand for post-default bonds. Argentina now is facing a devalued currency to preserve its forex reserves, a devaluation that could trigger dangerous inflation currently on a course to 40% annually. S&P has already lowered Argentina's foreign currency rating.)

Russia defaulted in 1998 in part due to carry over Soviet Union debt, but old Soviet debt was not the primary reason of the default, nor were decreasing oil prices. The primary cause of the Russian default (aka The Ruble Crisis) was not the fall of oil prices directly, but the result of non-payment of taxes by the energy and manufacturing industries. Are these oligarchs paying taxes today? What do you think?

Beyond oil and reserves, Russia running on empty

The International Monetary Fund warned in May that Moscow had no contingency plan for oil prices to fall significantly below $100 pb, so a sustained decline in the price of crude could even undermine Putins grip on power.

"If the oil price goes down to $75 and stays there for a few years, Russia will have regime change," said a prominent Russian economist who asked not to be named.

"Two years ago I would have said $60, but now, given the lack of growth, the increase in corruption and sanctions, $75 would be enough."

http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-oil-reserves-russia-running-empty-141751780--sector.html

Putin in the Ukraine and in Moscow has sh*t the bed big time.

The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html
Russias second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.
-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
-The Euro represents more people then the USD
-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

I see you've changed your tact away from saying Russia and China are going to bust the USD$, the U.S. economy and financial systems, Anglo-American civilization as you guys often call it, thereby freeing all the oppressed people of the world into the hands of Moscow and Beijing. You're prudent to shut up about that.

So now you need to specify precisely what you mean when you say, "The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be."

Tell us in precise terms - some few examples will do - how will the world be better off by pursuing your way, the United States included. Your concerns for the United States, the G-7, the G-20 are not exactly at the top of your posts....or anywhere in your posts.

Are you one of the gold bugs that wants to take monetary systems back to the 19th century and its continuing roller coaster cycles of boom-bust. The historical record shows the inflexibility of the gold standard in modern economics and finance, in people's everyday lives. Ron Paul always missed this aspect of society, i.e., people's everyday lives.

You need to address the following especially and in particular.....

Why the Dollar Remains the Reserve Currency

The world still clamors for dollars and there is no sign this will end. The world is so eager for protection against financial market mayhem, and theres such a dearth of safe assets, so people may be willing to pay a high price for safety. It is plausible that there could come a tipping point when foreign and domestic investors lose confidence in the dollar. But this would create turmoil in financial markets worldwide. And that would cause investors to run for coverright back into the arms of the dollar! So, till a better alternative comes along, for the foreseeable future the world is stuck in the dollar trap.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/qa-why-the-dollar-remains-the-reserve-currency/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

I already answered that.

The petrodollar is still enforced around the world as we can see in Ukraine.

And despite the US propaganda, the Euro stands ready to take on the reserve currency status on a unit of account basis. And I also listed the reasons why. Nor did I say anything about handing the world over to the big bad capitalists In Bejing or our fellow Judeao Christians in Moscow Edited August 1, 2014 by Harsh Jones

F430murci · August 1, 2014

The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html
Russias second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.
-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
-The Euro represents more people then the USD
-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

I see you've changed your tact away from saying Russia and China are going to bust the USD$, the U.S. economy and financial systems, Anglo-American civilization as you guys often call it, thereby freeing all the oppressed people of the world into the hands of Moscow and Beijing. You're prudent to shut up about that.

So now you need to specify precisely what you mean when you say, "The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be."

Tell us in precise terms - some few examples will do - how will the world be better off by pursuing your way, the United States included. Your concerns for the United States, the G-7, the G-20 are not exactly at the top of your posts....or anywhere in your posts.

Are you one of the gold bugs that wants to take monetary systems back to the 19th century and its continuing roller coaster cycles of boom-bust. The historical record shows the inflexibility of the gold standard in modern economics and finance, in people's everyday lives. Ron Paul always missed this aspect of society, i.e., people's everyday lives.

You need to address the following especially and in particular.....

Why the Dollar Remains the Reserve Currency

The world still clamors for dollars and there is no sign this will end. The world is so eager for protection against financial market mayhem, and theres such a dearth of safe assets, so people may be willing to pay a high price for safety. It is plausible that there could come a tipping point when foreign and domestic investors lose confidence in the dollar. But this would create turmoil in financial markets worldwide. And that would cause investors to run for coverright back into the arms of the dollar! So, till a better alternative comes along, for the foreseeable future the world is stuck in the dollar trap.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/qa-why-the-dollar-remains-the-reserve-currency/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
I already answered that.

The petrodollar is still enforced around the world as we can see in Ukraine.

And despite the US propaganda, the Euro stands ready to take on the reserve currency status on a unit of account basis. And I also listed the reasons why. Nor did I say anything about handing the world over to the big bad capitalists In Bejing or our fellow Judeao Christians in Moscow

You are quoting and relying upon Zerohedge. As I have noted on here before, I knew Daniel Ivandjinski from his Miller Buckfire days. While I am a securities lawyer, I also still have my Series 7 and 66 unlike Ivandjiiski who got popped for insider trading.

Haha, you guys have to realize who Ivandjiiski is and why Ivandjiiski write what he writes . . . There is a reason and purpose as to what he does, besides being bat shit insane, and it has very, very little to do with reality.

My wife is a Russian born Yale and Novosibirsk University educated and works as a Global Corporate & Investment Banker for BofA in Russian institutional investments and bonds. Her entire existence (and a big chunk of our lifestyle) depends upon her ability to accurately forecast every major macro and micro economic factor that may impact Russia. She blows it and the consequences are real unlike you, I or the "Tyler Durden's of the world."

Now let's talk reality here. The "Tyler Durden" hysteria you talk about is nothing more than "Tyler Durden" hysteria.

Russia pulled $45 bn out of US in March to protect it from being frozen by US sanctions or could have had more to do with seeking a higher yield from somewhere like Belgium. Russia, however, pulled $ 63 bn out in 2013 and Russia only held about 1% of the total US Treasuries in December of 2013 so any move by Russia can be absorbed. China is limited in its ability to move money out of concern for currency appreciation which would all put cripple their already lagging GDP/economy if their cheap products are no longer affordable on the world market.

Russian economy has an extremely tight correlation between oil prices and GDP. US could release 500,000 barrels per day and push down prices by $ 10 to $ 12 a barrel. US could also easily cause in increase in oil production to drive prices down to $ 85 ish a barrel. A mere $ 10 reduction in current per barrel price would result in a reduction of about $ 40 bn in Russian expert income and lower Russian GDP by as much as 4%. Saudi can tolerate the lower prices because budgets are premised on lower prices. Russia cannot.

US and banks already hedge against effects of Russian sanctions and only had about $ 10bn invested and at risk in Russia in February of this year. US exports to Russia account for less than .1% of US GDP. The recent sell-off of Russian securities has caused its currency to fall 8% against the dollar. Russia's cost to protect $ 10m of debt through credit swap has nearly doubled to about $ 300,000 in just a year. Russia raised rates to 8% in an effort to curb inflation and some are forecasting the rate to go as high as double digits.

Jeez, I could on and on about Russia and I actually am very fond of Russia and Russians. It is extremely sad what is happening to the common man and woman in Russia. They are a proud, hardworking and good people that are absolutely raped by corruption.

Harsh Jones · August 1, 2014

[quote name="F430murci" post="8185245" timestamp="1406915313"]

[quote name="Harsh Jones" post="8185021" timestamp="1406909145"]

[quote name="Publicus" post="8184591" timestamp="1406900363"]
[quote name="Harsh Jones" post="8184371" timestamp="1406897349"]

The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html
Russias second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.
-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
-The Euro represents more people then the USD
-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

[/quote]
I see you've changed your tact away from saying Russia and China are going to bust the USD$, the U.S. economy and financial systems, Anglo-American civilization as you guys often call it, thereby freeing all the oppressed people of the world into the hands of Moscow and Beijing. You're prudent to shut up about that.

So now you need to specify precisely what you mean when you say, "The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be."

Tell us in precise terms - some few examples will do - how will the world be better off by pursuing your way, the United States included. Your concerns for the United States, the G-7, the G-20 are not exactly at the top of your posts....or anywhere in your posts.

Are you one of the gold bugs that wants to take monetary systems back to the 19th century and its continuing roller coaster cycles of boom-bust. The historical record shows the inflexibility of the gold standard in modern economics and finance, in people's everyday lives. Ron Paul always missed this aspect of society, i.e., people's everyday lives.

You need to address the following especially and in particular.....

Why the Dollar Remains the Reserve Currency

The world still clamors for dollars and there is no sign this will end. The world is so eager for protection against financial market mayhem, and theres such a dearth of safe assets, so people may be willing to pay a high price for safety. It is plausible that there could come a tipping point when foreign and domestic investors lose confidence in the dollar. But this would create turmoil in financial markets worldwide. And that would cause investors to run for coverright back into the arms of the dollar! So, till a better alternative comes along, for the foreseeable future the world is stuck in the dollar trap.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/qa-why-the-dollar-remains-the-reserve-currency/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0[/quote]I already answered that.

The petrodollar is still enforced around the world as we can see in Ukraine.

And despite the US propaganda, the Euro stands ready to take on the reserve currency status on a unit of account basis. And I also listed the reasons why. Nor did I say anything about handing the world over to the big bad capitalists In Bejing or our fellow Judeao Christians in Moscow
[/quote]

You are quoting and relying upon Zerohedge. As I have noted on here before, I knew Daniel Ivandjinski from his Miller Buckfire days. While I am a securities lawyer, I also still have my Series 7 and 66 unlike Ivandjiiski who got popped for insider trading.

Haha, you guys have to realize who Ivandjiiski is and why Ivandjiiski write what he writes . . . There is a reason and purpose as to what he does, besides being bat shit insane, and it has very, very little to do with reality.

My wife is a Russian born Yale and Novosibirsk University educated and works as a Global Corporate & Investment Banker for BofA in Russian institutional investments and bonds. Her entire existence (and a big chunk of our lifestyle) depends upon her ability to accurately forecast every major macro and micro economic factor that may impact Russia. She blows it and the consequences are real unlike you, I or the "Tyler Durden's of the world."

Now let's talk reality here. The "Tyler Durden" hysteria you talk about is nothing more than "Tyler Durden" hysteria.

Russia pulled $45 bn out of US in March to protect it from being frozen by US sanctions or could have had more to do with seeking a higher yield from somewhere like Belgium. Russia, however, pulled $ 63 bn out in 2013 and Russia only held about 1% of the total US Treasuries in December of 2013 so any move by Russia can be absorbed. China is limited in its ability to move money out of concern for currency appreciation which would all put cripple their already lagging GDP/economy if their cheap products are no longer affordable on the world market.

Russian economy has an extremely tight correlation between oil prices and GDP. US could release 500,000 barrels per day and push down prices by $ 10 to $ 12 a barrel. US could also easily cause in increase in oil production to drive prices down to $ 85 ish a barrel. A mere $ 10 reduction in current per barrel price would result in a reduction of about $ 40 bn in Russian expert income and lower Russian GDP by as much as 4%. Saudi can tolerate the lower prices because budgets are premised on lower prices. Russia cannot.

US and banks already hedge against effects of Russian sanctions and only had about $ 10bn invested and at risk in Russia in February of this year. US exports to Russia account for less than .1% of US GDP. The recent sell-off of Russian securities has caused its currency to fall 8% against the dollar. Russia's cost to protect $ 10m of debt through credit swap has nearly doubled to about $ 300,000 in just a year. Russia raised rates to 8% in an effort to curb inflation and some are forecasting the rate to go as high as double digits.

Jeez, I could on and on about Russia and I actually am very fond of Russia and Russians. It is extremely sad what is happening to the common man and woman in Russia. They are a proud, hardworking and good people that are absolutely raped by corruption.[/quote]

I am relying on Zerohedge ?

Show me one, just one article or publication where ZeroHedge has spoken positively of the Euro, the ECB or the Eurozone. ...... ?? Zerohedge posts negative articles on the Euro almost daily.

It's funny to watch the US get all giddy about their highly cash flow negative shale oil "boom" while at the same time, try to claim that Russia has a case of Dutch disease. The only thing to come out of the US since 2008 is this subprime lending bubble in shale oil, while Russia writes up gas deals with China at prices that make everything that is going on in the US energy sector , even more cash flow negative.

F430murci · August 1, 2014

You are quoting and relying upon Zerohedge. As I have noted on here before, I knew Daniel Ivandjinski from his Miller Buckfire days. While I am a securities lawyer, I also still have my Series 7 and 66 unlike Ivandjiiski who got popped for insider trading.

Haha, you guys have to realize who Ivandjiiski is and why Ivandjiiski write what he writes . . . There is a reason and purpose as to what he does, besides being bat shit insane, and it has very, very little to do with reality.

My wife is a Russian born Yale and Novosibirsk University educated and works as a Global Corporate & Investment Banker for BofA in Russian institutional investments and bonds. Her entire existence (and a big chunk of our lifestyle) depends upon her ability to accurately forecast every major macro and micro economic factor that may impact Russia. She blows it and the consequences are real unlike you, I or the "Tyler Durden's of the world."

Now let's talk reality here. The "Tyler Durden" hysteria you talk about is nothing more than "Tyler Durden" hysteria.

Russia pulled $45 bn out of US in March to protect it from being frozen by US sanctions or could have had more to do with seeking a higher yield from somewhere like Belgium. Russia, however, pulled $ 63 bn out in 2013 and Russia only held about 1% of the total US Treasuries in December of 2013 so any move by Russia can be absorbed. China is limited in its ability to move money out of concern for currency appreciation which would all put cripple their already lagging GDP/economy if their cheap products are no longer affordable on the world market.

Russian economy has an extremely tight correlation between oil prices and GDP. US could release 500,000 barrels per day and push down prices by $ 10 to $ 12 a barrel. US could also easily cause in increase in oil production to drive prices down to $ 85 ish a barrel. A mere $ 10 reduction in current per barrel price would result in a reduction of about $ 40 bn in Russian expert income and lower Russian GDP by as much as 4%. Saudi can tolerate the lower prices because budgets are premised on lower prices. Russia cannot.

US and banks already hedge against effects of Russian sanctions and only had about $ 10bn invested and at risk in Russia in February of this year. US exports to Russia account for less than .1% of US GDP. The recent sell-off of Russian securities has caused its currency to fall 8% against the dollar. Russia's cost to protect $ 10m of debt through credit swap has nearly doubled to about $ 300,000 in just a year. Russia raised rates to 8% in an effort to curb inflation and some are forecasting the rate to go as high as double digits.

Jeez, I could on and on about Russia and I actually am very fond of Russia and Russians. It is extremely sad what is happening to the common man and woman in Russia. They are a proud, hardworking and good people that are absolutely raped by corruption.

I am relying on Zerohedge ?

Show me one, just one article or publication where ZeroHedge has spoken positively of the Euro, the ECB or the Eurozone. ...... ?? Zerohedge posts negative articles on the Euro almost daily.

It's funny to watch the US get all giddy about their highly cash flow negative shale oil "boom" while at the same time, try to claim that Russia has a case of Dutch disease. The only thing to come out of the US since 2008 is this subprime lending bubble in shale oil, while Russia writes up gas deals with China at prices that make everything that is going on in the US energy sector , even more cash flow negative.

??? uhm you cite/quote zerohedge right here . . ., unless someone jacked your awesome screen name? Haha, you read zerohedge everyday. I am not giddy about anything except your stating that Russian and China going to dump bonds, ruin the US and that the world will dump the dollar . . well that and how well the US economy has treated me lately.

Harsh Jones, on 01 Aug 2014 - 07:49, said:

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
http://www.zerohedge...s-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.
-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
-The Euro represents more people then the USD
-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

losworld · August 1, 2014

Where is the proof Russia shot down the airliner as you claim? At present there is no solid proof either way but it is looking more and more like it could well have been a Ukrainian jet rather than a rebel missile. That is why most sane people want an investigation before a war. Secondly the U.S. did have a lot to do with the overthrow of the Ukrainian govt. and Nuland herself saying the E.U. and talking about 5 billion spent to overthrow what was an elected govt. This is what started the ball rolling. Putin may not be innocent but you are a hanging judge without a trial and this lack of judgement and proper presentation of facts could very well lead to a war that could escalate and go nuclear.

"You've got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives," Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. If this wasn't so insane it would be funny. And Iraq and Afghanistan were not sovereign nations? And under what pretense "weapons of mass destruction". How do we know this same level of integrity is not being employed to create another conflict in Ukraine?

Edited August 1, 2014 by losworld

Harsh Jones · August 1, 2014

You are quoting and relying upon Zerohedge. As I have noted on here before, I knew Daniel Ivandjinski from his Miller Buckfire days. While I am a securities lawyer, I also still have my Series 7 and 66 unlike Ivandjiiski who got popped for insider trading.

Haha, you guys have to realize who Ivandjiiski is and why Ivandjiiski write what he writes . . . There is a reason and purpose as to what he does, besides being bat shit insane, and it has very, very little to do with reality.

My wife is a Russian born Yale and Novosibirsk University educated and works as a Global Corporate & Investment Banker for BofA in Russian institutional investments and bonds.  Her entire existence (and a big chunk of our lifestyle) depends upon her ability to accurately forecast every major macro and micro economic factor that may impact Russia. She blows it and the consequences are real unlike you, I or the "Tyler Durden's of the world."

Now let's talk reality here. The "Tyler Durden" hysteria you talk about is nothing more than "Tyler Durden" hysteria.

Russia pulled $45 bn out of US in March to protect it from being frozen by US sanctions or could have had more to do with seeking a higher yield from somewhere like Belgium. Russia, however, pulled $ 63 bn out in 2013 and Russia only held about 1% of the total US Treasuries in December of 2013 so any move by Russia can be absorbed. China is limited in its ability to move money out of concern for currency appreciation which would all put cripple their already lagging GDP/economy if their cheap products are no longer affordable on the world market.

Russian economy has an extremely tight correlation between oil prices and GDP. US could release 500,000 barrels per day and push down prices by $ 10 to $ 12 a barrel. US could also easily cause in increase in oil production to drive prices down to $ 85 ish a barrel. A mere $ 10 reduction in current per barrel price would result in a reduction of about $ 40 bn in Russian expert income and lower Russian GDP by as much as 4%. Saudi can tolerate the lower prices because budgets are premised on lower prices. Russia cannot.

US and banks already hedge against effects of Russian sanctions and only had about $ 10bn invested and at risk in Russia in February of this year. US exports to Russia account for less than .1% of US GDP. The recent sell-off of Russian securities has caused its currency to fall 8% against the dollar. Russia's cost to protect $ 10m of debt through credit swap has nearly doubled to about $ 300,000 in just a year. Russia raised rates to 8% in an effort to curb inflation and some are forecasting the rate to go as high as double digits.

Jeez, I could on and on about Russia and I actually am very fond of Russia and Russians. It is extremely sad what is happening to the common man and woman in Russia. They are a proud, hardworking and good people that are absolutely raped by corruption.

I am relying on Zerohedge ?

Show me one, just one article or publication where ZeroHedge has spoken positively of the Euro, the ECB or the Eurozone. ...... ?? Zerohedge posts negative articles on the Euro almost daily.

It's funny to watch the US get all giddy about their highly cash flow negative shale oil "boom" while at the same time, try to claim that Russia has a case of Dutch disease. The only thing to come out of the US since 2008 is this subprime lending bubble in shale oil, while Russia writes up gas deals with China at prices that make everything that is going on in the US energy sector , even more cash flow negative.

??? uhm you cite/quote zerohedge right here . . ., unless someone jacked your awesome screen name? Haha, you read zerohedge everyday. I am not giddy about anything except your stating that Russian and China going to dump bonds, ruin the US and that the world will dump the dollar . .   well that and how well the US economy has treated me lately.

Harsh Jones, on 01 Aug 2014 - 07:49, said:

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
http://www.zerohedge...s-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.
-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
-The Euro represents more people then the USD
-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

I quote Zerohedge from time to time. A lot of people in the financial industry read Zerohedge. Some admit it. Some don't. Just because I quoted ZeroHedge does not mean I am some ZH bot. What is your reasoning for Tyler Durdens motives ect ?

Anyway sanctions are a zero sum game. That's my point. The US can put on some petty sanctions but if they put on ones that will have a meaningful enough hit, just means that Russia will counter with an equally hard hit. In this equasion , Russia is the creditor and the US is te debtor. So to take this to it's conclusion, Putin could and would at least try and pull a Gorge Soros. This would not turn out well for the US. Russia is used to being self sufficient. The US is not.

Publicus · August 1, 2014

A certain group of people are eager and chomping at the bit to see the U.S. dollar destroyed or reduced to insignificance and with it, the economy and the financial systems of the United States.

The reasons remain unclear as the direct beneficiary of any such destruction would be the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the gangsters in Moscow, among other unsavory characters globally such as Kim Jong Un and his collection of loonies In fact, the actors to precipitate such nefarious goals and purposes would also have to be Beijing and Moscow, as the entire economies and financial systems of the G-7 democracies would likewise collapse.

The U.S. is free to run up its debt because it is the global currency. Remove the USD$ as the global currency and suddenly the U.S. debt becomes a super serious problem for the United States and the existing world order. So the rich countries, democracies all, will not allow or accept any such grand design wherever its origin.

All the same, I reiterate that I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. Where's the beef in these yappings that are only a big bun with a pinch of cheese?

What is happening however is that the G-7 countries have agreed to vote at the World Bank to stop $1.5 billion of pending projects for Russia. Also happening is that, at the demand of its shareholders, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week said it is halting new Russia projects after a majority indicated it would not support them

Russia defaulted on its debit in 1998, as did Argentina in 2002. (Argentina went into default again this week as a U.S. District Court judge in New York ruled the Argentine government must pay U.S. bondholders on demand for post-default bonds. Argentina now is facing a devalued currency to preserve its forex reserves, a devaluation that could trigger dangerous inflation currently on a course to 40% annually. S&P has already lowered Argentina's foreign currency rating.)

Russia defaulted in 1998 in part due to carry over Soviet Union debt, but old Soviet debt was not the primary reason of the default, nor were decreasing oil prices. The primary cause of the Russian default (aka The Ruble Crisis) was not the fall of oil prices directly, but the result of non-payment of taxes by the energy and manufacturing industries. Are these oligarchs paying taxes today? What do you think?

Beyond oil and reserves, Russia running on empty

The International Monetary Fund warned in May that Moscow had no contingency plan for oil prices to fall significantly below $100 pb, so a sustained decline in the price of crude could even undermine Putin’s grip on power.

"If the oil price goes down to $75 and stays there for a few years, Russia will have regime change," said a prominent Russian economist who asked not to be named.

"Two years ago I would have said $60, but now, given the lack of growth, the increase in corruption and sanctions, $75 would be enough."

http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-oil-reserves-russia-running-empty-141751780--sector.html

Putin in the Ukraine and in Moscow has sh*t the bed big time.

The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html

Russia’s second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.

-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro

-The Euro represents more people then the USD

-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)

-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit

-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner

-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

All well and good for Russia, China, India.

However, institutions in those three countries are making one-off small deals with each other, small two country deals, transactions that are barely noticeable relative to the GDP of each and the GDP of the three in the aggregate.The actual test of a global reserve currency is whether corporations and individuals outside of Russia will use the Ruble in transactions with other companies outside of Russia. They don't. They're not going to even think about it.

The identical point is true of China companies transacting with companies not in one of the other two countries and trying to use the CNY. Ditto India and its Rupee. This is the vast and profound difference from a global vehicle currency such as the USD$.

All the BRICS countries are trying to get their global currency act together but that mountain remains very high before them. Which global corporations not in the BRICS want to or will do transactions with one another in the SA Rand, or the Real, the Ruble and so on? The Ruble is flailing and the CNY is tightly controlled by a mercantilist communist dictatorship in Beijing. It could seem the mountain grows higher each day.

Putin's regime has the technical and cyber capability to conduct a sudden high velocity attack of the U.S. economy and financial systems via their computers, but as with the Cold War doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, the United States has the identical capability in spades against the Russian economy and financial systems.

A poster reported the Russian stock exchange went down for several hours the other day, no great harm done. I don't doubt it.

StasD · August 1, 2014

i like these sanctions. they are very good for our economic. i think we bought too much useless goods from abroad. also i hope that gazprom will connect gas to my cotteges at least. it is nice to have sauna on firewood but for hitting system firewood is not convinient because takes a lot of time even very cheap

Harsh Jones · August 1, 2014

A certain group of people are eager and chomping at the bit to see the U.S. dollar destroyed or reduced to insignificance and with it, the economy and the financial systems of the United States.

The reasons remain unclear as the direct beneficiary of any such destruction would be the CCP Boyz in Beijing and the gangsters in Moscow, among other unsavory characters globally such as Kim Jong Un and his collection of loonies In fact, the actors to precipitate such nefarious goals and purposes would also have to be Beijing and Moscow, as the entire economies and financial systems of the G-7 democracies would likewise collapse.

The U.S. is free to run up its debt because it is the global currency. Remove the USD$ as the global currency and suddenly the U.S. debt becomes a super serious problem for the United States and the existing world order. So the rich countries, democracies all, will not allow or accept any such grand design wherever its origin.

All the same, I reiterate that I and a few others are still waiting for Putin to start demanding payment for his illicit energy supplies in either Rubles, RMB, or gold, or perhaps in cheeseburgers. Where's the beef in these yappings that are only a big bun with a pinch of cheese?

What is happening however is that the G-7 countries have agreed to vote at the World Bank to stop $1.5 billion of pending projects for Russia. Also happening is that, at the demand of its shareholders, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week said it is halting new Russia projects after a majority indicated it would not support them

Russia defaulted on its debit in 1998, as did Argentina in 2002. (Argentina went into default again this week as a U.S. District Court judge in New York ruled the Argentine government must pay U.S. bondholders on demand for post-default bonds. Argentina now is facing a devalued currency to preserve its forex reserves, a devaluation that could trigger dangerous inflation currently on a course to 40% annually. S&P has already lowered Argentina's foreign currency rating.)

Russia defaulted in 1998 in part due to carry over Soviet Union debt, but old Soviet debt was not the primary reason of the default, nor were decreasing oil prices. The primary cause of the Russian default (aka The Ruble Crisis) was not the fall of oil prices directly, but the result of non-payment of taxes by the energy and manufacturing industries. Are these oligarchs paying taxes today? What do you think?

Beyond oil and reserves, Russia running on empty

The International Monetary Fund warned in May that Moscow had no contingency plan for oil prices to fall significantly below $100 pb, so a sustained decline in the price of crude could even undermine Putins grip on power.

"If the oil price goes down to $75 and stays there for a few years, Russia will have regime change," said a prominent Russian economist who asked not to be named.

"Two years ago I would have said $60, but now, given the lack of growth, the increase in corruption and sanctions, $75 would be enough."

http://news.yahoo.com/beyond-oil-reserves-russia-running-empty-141751780--sector.html

Putin in the Ukraine and in Moscow has sh*t the bed big time.

The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html
Russias second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.
-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
-The Euro represents more people then the USD
-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

All well and good for Russia, China, India.

However, institutions in those three countries are making one-off small deals with each other, small two country deals, transactions that are barely noticeable relative to the GDP of each and the GDP of the three in the aggregate.The actual test of a global reserve currency is whether corporations and individuals outside of Russia will use the Ruble in transactions with other companies outside of Russia. They don't. They're not going to even think about it.

The identical point is true of China companies transacting with companies not in one of the other two countries and trying to use the CNY. Ditto India and its Rupee. This is the vast and profound difference from a global vehicle currency such as the USD$.

All the BRICS countries are trying to get their global currency act together but that mountain remains very high before them. Which global corporations not in the BRICS want to or will do transactions with one another in the SA Rand, or the Real, the Ruble and so on? The Ruble is flailing and the CNY is tightly controlled by a mercantilist communist dictatorship in Beijing. It could seem the mountain grows higher each day.

Putin's regime has the technical and cyber capability to conduct a sudden high velocity attack of the U.S. economy and financial systems via their computers, but as with the Cold War doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, the United States has the identical capability in spades against the Russian economy and financial systems.

A poster reported the Russian stock exchange went down for several hours the other day, no great harm done. I don't doubt it.

You missed the part where I wrote about the Euro being the dollar replacement.

Publicus · August 1, 2014

Where is the proof Russia shot down the airliner as you claim? At present there is no solid proof either way but it is looking more and more like it could well have been a Ukrainian jet rather than a rebel missile. That is why most sane people want an investigation before a war. Secondly the U.S. did have a lot to do with the overthrow of the Ukrainian govt. and Nuland herself saying the E.U. and talking about 5 billion spent to overthrow what was an elected govt. This is what started the ball rolling. Putin may not be innocent but you are a hanging judge without a trial and this lack of judgement and proper presentation of facts could very well lead to a war that could escalate and go nuclear.

"You've got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives," Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. If this wasn't so insane it would be funny. And Iraq and Afghanistan were not sovereign nations? And under what pretense "weapons of mass destruction". How do we know this same level of integrity is not being employed to create another conflict in Ukraine?

Hold your horses and the arkansaurus too losworld.

Moscow is fueling, supplying, promoting the civil war it initiated in Ukraine.

The ousted president was driven out of office by Ukraine people and went home to Moscow after reneging on his election pledge to sign the Agreement of Association between Ukraine and the EU. People of Ukraine want rule of law, freedom of press/media, constitutionalism and elections that are viable and respected, peace and prosperity, independence, corporate and government transparency and so much more that is radically absent from Russia.

I misspoke when I wrote Russia shot down the Malaysian airliner. I and many others however have been amused by the conscious and calculated campaign of the state media of Russia to present wild out of the blue stories and tales of the shooting down of the airliner by Russian supported, sponsored, armed separatists.

Virtually everything presently happening in Ukraine is directly connected to the Kremlin and to Putin. Even I can't call G.W. Bush to account for this one.

Self-righteous indignation combined with finger pointing should therefore be sparingly practiced.

Publicus · August 1, 2014

The real gangsters are the crony corporatists in Washington and Wall street who's sole job is to shuffle paper around and force the petrodollar on the world at gunpoint so they can can take 50 billion dollars a month of real goods from the world without paying for them. And that's just the trade deficit. Russia and China are creditor nations that produce and manufacture real goods and real energy for real people.

The US has higher taxes and way more regulations then Russia does now. In other words, its the US that shares the most similarities with the USSR.

Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html
Russias second biggest financial institution, VTB, signed a deal with the Bank of China to bypass the dollar and pay each other in domestic currencies.

Russia And India Begin Negotiations To Use National Currencies In Settlements, Bypassing Dollar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol

As far as a dollar replacement. The Euro, despite the American propaganda war against it over the years, was designed for just that.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.
-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
-The Euro represents more people then the USD
-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

The faster the real world cuts itself off the boat anchor subsidy that is the US, the better off it will be.

All well and good for Russia, China, India.

However, institutions in those three countries are making one-off small deals with each other, small two country deals, transactions that are barely noticeable relative to the GDP of each and the GDP of the three in the aggregate.The actual test of a global reserve currency is whether corporations and individuals outside of Russia will use the Ruble in transactions with other companies outside of Russia. They don't. They're not going to even think about it.

The identical point is true of China companies transacting with companies not in one of the other two countries and trying to use the CNY. Ditto India and its Rupee. This is the vast and profound difference from a global vehicle currency such as the USD$.

All the BRICS countries are trying to get their global currency act together but that mountain remains very high before them. Which global corporations not in the BRICS want to or will do transactions with one another in the SA Rand, or the Real, the Ruble and so on? The Ruble is flailing and the CNY is tightly controlled by a mercantilist communist dictatorship in Beijing. It could seem the mountain grows higher each day.

Putin's regime has the technical and cyber capability to conduct a sudden high velocity attack of the U.S. economy and financial systems via their computers, but as with the Cold War doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, the United States has the identical capability in spades against the Russian economy and financial systems.

A poster reported the Russian stock exchange went down for several hours the other day, no great harm done. I don't doubt it.

You missed the part where I wrote about the Euro being the dollar replacement.

I missed nothing.

I bypassed it for the moment.

You must have been away reading ZH.

Harsh Jones · August 2, 2014

You missed the part where I wrote about the Euro being the dollar replacement.

I missed nothing.

I bypassed it for the moment.

You must have been away reading ZH.

This is hardly something you will ever see on ZH. ZH hates the Euro.

Dollar replacement has implications right now, in this US vs Russia conflict. The Europeans first started designing the Euro in 1962 specifically to unseat the dollar.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.

-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro

-The Euro represents more people then the USD

-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)

-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit

-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner

-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

Publicus · August 2, 2014

You missed the part where I wrote about the Euro being the dollar replacement.

I missed nothing.

I bypassed it for the moment.

You must have been away reading ZH.

This is hardly something you will ever see on ZH. ZH hates the Euro.

Dollar replacement has implications right now, in this US vs Russia conflict. The Europeans first started designing the Euro in 1962 specifically to unseat the dollar.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.

-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro

-The Euro represents more people then the USD

-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)

-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit

-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner

-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

You posted that awesome stuff previously so you're running out of points as you begin to repeat yourself.

Still, the presentation about the Euro is very nice, neat, impressive, promising. Maybe some day eh?

Let's meantime look at the existing state of currencies as forex reserves among governments of the world, 14 years after the introduction of the Euro as the world's only "stateless currency."

(Wikimedia)

http://theweek.com/article/index/265183/how-the-euro-can-still-unseat-the-dollar-as-the-worlds-dominant-currency

As a global reserve currency, the Euro is there but rather nerdy to be direct and honest about it.

Geeky.

To see why let's look at the facts and the record.

The Eurozone crisis of 2011-12 revealed a great number of overextended and poorly predicated banks. Many banks had to dump their numerous risks onto European governments which in turn caused a sovereign debt crisis that continues to exist. The direct result is that use of the Euro for international trade has slowed significantly as has use of the Euro as a global reserve currency.

The Euro has a serious problem of liquidity. There simply are not enough Euros in circulation for it to be used as the world's primary trade and reserve currency without causing deflation, not only in the Eurozone, but globally.

Ouch.

The Eruo has serious problems of stability. The Eurozone crisis continues to hang over the Euro.

Going into 2014 the continuing Eurozone crisis entered a new phase, in which disinflation and low growth began to slowly raise the debt-to-GDP ratio of many euro zone countries to intolerable levels. The European banking system still gives investors the horrors. The fact remains European banks remain risky and under-capitalized, not only in Greece and Spain but also in Germany, France, Belgium et al.

Going into huge debt is a necessity to be the premier global trade and reserve currency yet debt is killing the Euro.

Despite hollering from the U.S. reactionary right, the U.S. is straightforward about the USD$, its status as the premier global reserve currency, and debt. This is because large amounts of debt are required of the premier trade and reserve currency. The fact is the U.S. pile of debt guarantees the USD$ as the premier currency. But in the Eurozone, sovereign debt is seen as a big negative. All Eurozone countries have committed to reducing their debt through hard-nosed fiscal austerity. The Eurozone can't hack debt so it will never accept or tolerate the extent of debt required to become the premier global trade and reserve currency.

It is a requirement of a premier global trade and reserve currency that there be lots and lots of it, everywhere, at all times - liquidity, its ready convertability. More Rubles will wreck the Russian currency and economy. The same is true of the PRChina whose artificial currency doesn't even float in international markets. There's a great difference between the CNY which is monopoly game money and a viable global trade and reserve currency such as the USD$.

Which leaves the BRICS individually and as a whole lost in space, but that's yet another sad story.

Edited August 2, 2014 by Publicus

losworld · August 2, 2014

Where is the proof Russia shot down the airliner as you claim? At present there is no solid proof either way but it is looking more and more like it could well have been a Ukrainian jet rather than a rebel missile. That is why most sane people want an investigation before a war. Secondly the U.S. did have a lot to do with the overthrow of the Ukrainian govt. and Nuland herself saying the E.U. and talking about 5 billion spent to overthrow what was an elected govt. This is what started the ball rolling. Putin may not be innocent but you are a hanging judge without a trial and this lack of judgement and proper presentation of facts could very well lead to a war that could escalate and go nuclear.

"You've got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives," Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. If this wasn't so insane it would be funny. And Iraq and Afghanistan were not sovereign nations? And under what pretense "weapons of mass destruction". How do we know this same level of integrity is not being employed to create another conflict in Ukraine?

Hold your horses and the arkansaurus too losworld.

Moscow is fueling, supplying, promoting the civil war it initiated in Ukraine.

The ousted president was driven out of office by Ukraine people and went home to Moscow after reneging on his election pledge to sign the Agreement of Association between Ukraine and the EU. People of Ukraine want rule of law, freedom of press/media, constitutionalism and elections that are viable and respected, peace and prosperity, independence, corporate and government transparency and so much more that is radically absent from Russia.

I misspoke when I wrote Russia shot down the Malaysian airliner. I and many others however have been amused by the conscious and calculated campaign of the state media of Russia to present wild out of the blue stories and tales of the shooting down of the airliner by Russian supported, sponsored, armed separatists.

Virtually everything presently happening in Ukraine is directly connected to the Kremlin and to Putin. Even I can't call G.W. Bush to account for this one.

Self-righteous indignation combined with finger pointing should therefore be sparingly practiced.

Your misinformation is exactly why the U.S. is increasingly viewed negatively around the globe. Time will tell if they get the prosperity and transparency you so confidently predict. Their former banker leader resigned after the majority of his subordinates chased him out after recognizing Ukraine was not getting such a good deal after all.

Perhaps Russia has put out propaganda regarding the plane we shall see but for you to conveniently ignore the fact that the Ukraine is not releasing the air traffic controller tapes and that the U.S. is relying on "social media" providing very weak evidence is being very naive on your behalf. And to add insult to injury how can one not be suspicious when the major U.S. media outlets tell Russian they are guilty within hours of the crash?

Try to see both sides. George Bush has nothing to do with this present situation and knocking him does not camouflage what appears to be a dangerous pro war stance.

Yes you should try to refrain from finger pointing and self righteous indignation. Apology accepted.

Edited August 2, 2014 by losworld

Publicus · August 2, 2014

Where is the proof Russia shot down the airliner as you claim? At present there is no solid proof either way but it is looking more and more like it could well have been a Ukrainian jet rather than a rebel missile. That is why most sane people want an investigation before a war. Secondly the U.S. did have a lot to do with the overthrow of the Ukrainian govt. and Nuland herself saying the E.U. and talking about 5 billion spent to overthrow what was an elected govt. This is what started the ball rolling. Putin may not be innocent but you are a hanging judge without a trial and this lack of judgement and proper presentation of facts could very well lead to a war that could escalate and go nuclear.

"You've got a Russian government that has made a conscious decision to use its military force inside another sovereign nation to achieve its objectives," Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. If this wasn't so insane it would be funny. And Iraq and Afghanistan were not sovereign nations? And under what pretense "weapons of mass destruction". How do we know this same level of integrity is not being employed to create another conflict in Ukraine?

Hold your horses and the arkansaurus too losworld.

Moscow is fueling, supplying, promoting the civil war it initiated in Ukraine.

The ousted president was driven out of office by Ukraine people and went home to Moscow after reneging on his election pledge to sign the Agreement of Association between Ukraine and the EU. People of Ukraine want rule of law, freedom of press/media, constitutionalism and elections that are viable and respected, peace and prosperity, independence, corporate and government transparency and so much more that is radically absent from Russia.

I misspoke when I wrote Russia shot down the Malaysian airliner. I and many others however have been amused by the conscious and calculated campaign of the state media of Russia to present wild out of the blue stories and tales of the shooting down of the airliner by Russian supported, sponsored, armed separatists.

Virtually everything presently happening in Ukraine is directly connected to the Kremlin and to Putin. Even I can't call G.W. Bush to account for this one.

Self-righteous indignation combined with finger pointing should therefore be sparingly practiced.

Your misinformation is exactly why the U.S. is increasingly viewed negatively around the globe. Time will tell if they get the prosperity and transparency you so confidently predict. Their former banker leader resigned after the majority of his subordinates chased him out after recognizing Ukraine was not getting such a good deal after all.

Perhaps Russia has put out propaganda regarding the plane we shall see but for you to conveniently ignore the fact that the Ukraine is not releasing the air traffic controller tapes and that the U.S. is relying on "social media" providing very weak evidence is being very naive on your behalf. And to add insult to injury how can one not be suspicious when the major U.S. media outlets tell Russian they are guilty within hours of the crash?

Try to see both sides. George Bush has nothing to do with this present situation and knocking him does not camouflage what appears to be a dangerous pro war stance.

Yes you should try to refrain from finger pointing and self righteous indignation. Apology accepted.

jope · August 2, 2014

You missed the part where I wrote about the Euro being the dollar replacement.

I missed nothing.

I bypassed it for the moment.

You must have been away reading ZH.

This is hardly something you will ever see on ZH. ZH hates the Euro.

Dollar replacement has implications right now, in this US vs Russia conflict. The Europeans first started designing the Euro in 1962 specifically to unseat the dollar.

-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.

-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro

-The Euro represents more people then the USD

-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)

-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit

-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner

-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

I seriously doubt that the ECB has (or ever had) the intention to replace the US$. To the best of my knowledge, the ECB has only one purpose: to provide the Euro-zone with a stable currency (emphasis on "stable").

Before the Euro, the "Deutsche Mark" dominated Europe. Giving up the "Deutsche Mark" in favor of a common currency was the price Germany had to pay for Frances approval of the German reunification. Considering that German governments always regarded a common currency as a huge step into the direction of a united Europe, the decision was not too hard for them to make (there was a political risk, though: we loved our "Deutsche Mark". As a famous US newspaper once titled: "not all Germans believe in God, but literally every German believes in the "Deutsche Bundesbank"). I would not rule out that individual politicians fabulated about replacing the dollar, but it was never a real issue.

F430murci · August 2, 2014

Only have time for two things about the Euro, one if which I have said many times on here to people that criticize the last two rounds of QE.

The EURO was failing and European bank reserves were bunk and close to insolvency after US banks recovered. The vast majority of later QE money was intended and did in fact land on the balance sheets of European banks to prop them up and get their reserves line. Otherwise, the. US recovery could have been taken down by an onslaught of Euro bank failures. Where is the gratitude for that?

The Euro is still a disaster and has been a disaster since day one. The euro required a single interest rate and exchange rate. The interest rate was too low for fast growinh countries such as Ireland and Spain and too high for slow growing countries such as Germany and France. Low interest rates encouraged property speculation and led to higher inflation. Countries could let their currency fall to compensate prior to Euro. In walks Germany, reduces wage below infestation levels to price goods back into market Euro market at a competitive advantage. This caused huge trade deficits in other Euro countries such as Spain, Greece and Italy. Failed evonomies could not then become more competitive through devaluation and had to resort to so through cutting wages and public spending aggressively.

The end result . . ., Euro banks are still a mess and will remain a mess. The Eurosingle currency "one size fits all" system is not working in the few select countries it is in and chances if it spreading to other countries are nil. If anything, countries may eventually exit.

Below is article on banking and I apologize for not having time to find something better.

---------

OK, 27 banks are at risk of failing the stress test, Bloomberg estimated earlier. No one really knows. Results will be published in October. These banks are dogged by problems that have been swept more or less neatly under the rug, including ballooning extend-and-pretend loans. The amounts of this forbearance are mostly secret in Europe for fear that public knowledge might topple some of the banks, blow up profits and capital ratios of others, and leave executives who were showered with rich compensation packages red-faced. Some banks disclose snippets, a third of the 39 largest banks in the Eurozone, including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Commerzbank, dont disclose anything about their extend-and-pretend portfolios.

What little they have disclosed about their loans is bad: nearly 1 trillion in nonperforming loans as of last June. Or 6.7% of total loans! Spains largest bank, Banco Santander confessed that reclassifying some of its extend-and-pretend loans nearly doubled its nonperforming loans to 7.5% of its total loan portfolio. At Italian banks, nonperforming loans reached 9.1% of all loans, admitted Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco, as he warned of more ambitious interventions.

Read more: http://www.french-news-online.com/wordpress/?p=35182#ixzz39FAPfGuz

Publicus · August 2, 2014

This is hardly something you will ever see on ZH. ZH hates the Euro.

Dollar replacement has implications right now, in this US vs Russia conflict. The Europeans first started designing the Euro in 1962 specifically to unseat the dollar.
-The ECB is the worlds first non nation state central bank.
-All countries in the Eurozone have no ability to print the Euro
-The Euro represents more people then the USD
-The Eurozone has more gold then the US (10,000 tons)
-The Eurozone is a net creditor with no trade deficit
-The Eurozone is China's biggest trading partner
-The ECB expanded its balance sheet by 11% in 2008. The Fed and BOJ expanded theirs by over 70%

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

You posted that awesome stuff previously so you're running out of points as you begin to repeat yourself.

Still, the presentation about the Euro is very nice, neat, impressive, promising. Maybe some day eh?

Let's meantime look at the existing state of currencies as forex reserves among governments of the world, 14 years after the introduction of the Euro as the world's only "stateless currency."

http://theweek.com/article/index/265183/how-the-euro-can-still-unseat-the-dollar-as-the-worlds-dominant-currency

As a global reserve currency, the Euro is there but rather nerdy to be direct and honest about it.

Geeky.

To see why let's look at the facts and the record.

The Eurozone crisis of 2011-12 revealed a great number of overextended and poorly predicated banks. Many banks had to dump their numerous risks onto European governments which in turn caused a sovereign debt crisis that continues to exist. The direct result is that use of the Euro for international trade has slowed significantly as has use of the Euro as a global reserve currency.

The Euro has a serious problem of liquidity. There simply are not enough Euros in circulation for it to be used as the world's primary trade and reserve currency without causing deflation, not only in the Eurozone, but globally.

Ouch.

The Eruo has serious problems of stability. The Eurozone crisis continues to hang over the Euro.

Going into 2014 the continuing Eurozone crisis entered a new phase, in which disinflation and low growth began to slowly raise the debt-to-GDP ratio of many euro zone countries to intolerable levels. The European banking system still gives investors the horrors. The fact remains European banks remain risky and under-capitalized, not only in Greece and Spain but also in Germany, France, Belgium et al.

Going into huge debt is a necessity to be the premier global trade and reserve currency yet debt is killing the Euro.

Despite hollering from the U.S. reactionary right, the U.S. is straightforward about the USD$, its status as the premier global reserve currency, and debt. This is because large amounts of debt are required of the premier trade and reserve currency. The fact is the U.S. pile of debt guarantees the USD$ as the premier currency. But in the Eurozone, sovereign debt is seen as a big negative. All Eurozone countries have committed to reducing their debt through hard-nosed fiscal austerity. The Eurozone can't hack debt so it will never accept or tolerate the extent of debt required to become the premier global trade and reserve currency.

It is a requirement of a premier global trade and reserve currency that there be lots and lots of it, everywhere, at all times - liquidity, its ready convertability. More Rubles will wreck the Russian currency and economy. The same is true of the PRChina whose artificial currency doesn't even float in international markets. There's a great difference between the CNY which is monopoly game money and a viable global trade and reserve currency such as the USD$.

Which leaves the BRICS individually and as a whole lost in space, but that's yet another sad story.

You asked what the next reserve currency is going to be and I told you. I know it doesn't make sense in a Keynesians mind but I am not going to try and undo that.

You need to get back to carrying on against petrodollars cause your stuff about the Eurodollar becoming the principal global trade and reserve currency, replacing the USD$, is only showing me thank you that I've finally found someone who knows even less about global finance than I do.

Keynes, you say....I double checked my post above to confirm I didn't quote Keynes or mention his name All the same however, you holdouts against global realities need to be reminded it was Prez Richard Nixon who famously said, "We're all Kenynesians now." Nixon was of course speaking rhetorically and not literally as some among you are still at your battle stations for the gold standard. Follow the yellow brick road.

Nor did I ask anyone "what the next reserve currency is going to be." I did ask you to state your case, nothing more. There isn't any one single next one. I thought I'd made clear the USD$ will remain the global trade and reserve currency for some considerable time, most likely until future global powers decide on a single "stateless" currency - in other words, when hell freezes over.

The "stateless" Euro displacing the USD$ as the global trade and reserve currency of choice isn't even being debated by high schoolers so I'm not going to put any more time into the obscure quirks of extreme (and convoluted) right wingers who want to bring down the U.S. government while seeking to raise up the governments in Moscow and Beijing not to mention Brasilia and Pretoria.

Edited August 2, 2014 by Publicus

F430murci · August 2, 2014

Harsh Jones:

Everytime you try and make a point, I demonstrate precisely why that either cannot or will not happen or how you are using a flawed analysis. You ignore that and throw some new hysteria/Tyler Durden nutty stuff back in the mix for a bit of misdirection.

Although you do not cite or indicate where you material and images come from, your fancy tables and charts are more zerohedge/Tyler Durden hysteria timewaster bs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fofoa-golds-focal-point-or-silver-money-too?page=3

Its all good. Live in a paranoid fantasy land, buy a bunch of gold, prepare for the crash of the dollar and hyper inflation and see where it gets you. You might as well move to a shack in the mountains off the grid while your at it because there is a better chance of the guuuuuuubbberment coming to take your guns and stuff away, WW3 breaking out, you getting Ebola and/or you becoming a part of a secret government experiment like the Matrix than the dollar crashing. Come to think of it, I think I read somehwhere that the men in black where on the way to get someone going by the fancy moniker of Hash Brown on Thai Visa so you may want to change your screen name and move to somehwhere else quickly.

Edited August 2, 2014 by Scott
username

Harsh Jones · August 3, 2014

Harsh Jones:

Everytime you try and make a point, I demonstrate precisely why that either cannot or will not happen or how you are using a flawed analysis. You ignore that and throw some new hysteria/Tyler Durden nutty stuff back in the mix for a bit of misdirection.

Although you do not cite or indicate where you material and images come from, your fancy tables and charts are more zerohedge/Tyler Durden hysteria timewaster bs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fofoa-golds-focal-point-or-silver-money-too?page=3

Its all good. Live in a paranoid fantasy land, buy a bunch of gold, prepare for the crash of the dollar and hyper inflation and see where it gets you. You might as well move to a shack in the mountains off the grid while your at it because there is a better chance of the guuuuuuubbberment coming to take your guns and stuff away, WW3 breaking out, you getting Ebola and/or you becoming a part of a secret government experiment like the Matrix than the dollar crashing. Come to think of it, I think I read somehwhere that the men in black where on the way to get someone going by the fancy moniker of Hash Brown on Thai Visa so you may want to change your screen name and move to somehwhere else quickly.

If gold is only for paranoid people living in fantasy land, why is it on line one of the ECB balance sheet ?

Why in 2012, did The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision under Basel 3, declare that gold is now a tier one asset ?

Publicus · August 3, 2014

And Russia retaliates by announcing it will no longer accept US Dollars or Euros for the oil and gas it sells to EU countries, requiring instead to be paid in either Rubles or Yuan.

Where did you see this - very interesting if true

The poster very likely read this at any one (or more) of a proliferation of very well financed extreme right media that are campaigning to take down the U.S. government to elevate to global dominance the governments of Moscow and Beijing.The far right media are globalists, but they are globalists in favor of Moscow and Beijing.

The constant of this extremist right wing media is however the destruction of what they self-identify as Anglo-American civilization, Anglo-American being a term that appears constantly and consistently in their bizarre literature.

They like that Putin and his Moscow oligarchs have made the radical, conscious, firm decision to turn away from Europe and the United States. Putin is focusing on Central Asia and East Asia, Beijing and New Delhi especially and in particular.

Putin and his nationalist oligarchs consider that in Ukraine they are cleaning up their back yard and to demonstrate that force will be used in this reintegration project. Moscow's actions in Ukraine are a prelude to Russia moving east across Central Asian countries and to bind Putin's alliance with Beijing. In other words, Kazakhstan with its large Russian speaking population is openly getting nervous.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

After Crimea: Will Kazakhstan be Next in Putin’s Reintegration Project?

If unchecked, Russia’s seizure of key objects in Crimea will be the first step in changing the map of Eurasia. Vladimir Putin’s assertion of a need to use military force to protect Russian citizens and the entire “Russian-speaking population” is ominous.

It should be read as a warning that Russia’s president wants to reverse what he says are two of the great catastrophes of the twentieth century: the collapse of the Russian Empire and the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Focus must be on checking Putin’s provocation in Ukraine and preventing him from taking another step—in Kazakhstan or anywhere else—in his reintegration project.

http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/05/after-crimea-will-kazakhstan-be-next-in-putin-s-reintegration-project

Putin Is The New Tsar Of The Holy Empire

He aims to deliver on pact with the Russian people.

May 19, 2014

Instead of a new leader of the communist party, Putin has become the new tsar of Russia. It’s not about ideology for him; it’s about power.

Rather than fomenting a communist utopia and spreading Leninism worldwide, Putin is resurrecting the Russian Empire. Under the Romanovs, the tsars expanded throughout Siberia and the Caucuses, even owning Alaska and parts of California at one point before withdrawing during the Crimean War.The tsars were experts at the geopolitical chessboard of their time, conquering when they could and forging alliances when they were overmatched.

Putin is borrowing from this playbook.

Read more at http://www.westernjournalism.com/putin-new-tsar-holy-empire/#cWUJxoGxsFAWycag.99

Edited August 3, 2014 by Publicus

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