Special Report: NESDB expects Thai economy to expand by 1 percent

[webfact]

Special Report: NESDB expects Thai economy to expand by 1%

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy in 2014 is likely to expand by 1 percent, a drop from the 1.5 to 2 percent predicted earlier by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). It is however projected to expand by between 3.5 and 4.5 percent in 2015.

Deputy Transport Minister and NESDB Secretary-General Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said the predicted growth rate of 1 percent resulted mainly from the lower-than-expected growth of the Thai economy in the third quarter.

The global economy in the third quarter of 2014 expanded at a slower pace than it did in the second quarter, especially the United States and the Chinese economies, while the Japanese and the European Union economies remained weak. Agricultural export prices also declined significantly, causing the export value to contract following the expansion seen in the second quarter.

The sales of passenger cars continued to decline, by 41.9 percent, while budget disbursement in the fourth quarter of the 2014 fiscal year was at 20.8 percent, lower than the 25 percent target. The disbursement rate for the entire 2014 fiscal year stood at 89 percent, which was lower than the 95 percent target. The recovery of tourism remained slow, as reflected by the lower-than-expected tourist arrivals in the third quarter.

As for 2015, the world economy is expected to grow by 3.6 percent, a slight increase from 3.2 percent in 2014 due to stronger recovery in several major countries. A stronger global economy in 2015 should also boost the world trade volume, which is projected to increase by 4.8 percent, higher than 3.8 percent in 2014.

According to the NESDB, exports are likely to grow by 4 percent, private consumption expenditure by 2.6 percent, and investment by 5.8 percent. Inflation is expected to be in the range of 1.4-2.4 percent, compared with 2.1 percent in 2014. The current account surplus will remain in surplus of around 2.2 percent of the GDP.

The Thai economy in 2015 is likely to accelerate from 2014 because of an improvement in the export sector, in line with the further recovery of the global economy. The tourism sector and investment situation will pick up, together with an increase in government expenditure. Other factors include a sharp drop in crude oil prices, and less base effect caused by an expected high volume of car sales and production.

However, there remain some risk factors and limitations which could reduce the economic growth from its potential level. These include currency movements and economic policies in major economies, the fluctuation of currency and the volatile global economy, and dampened household income caused by the slump in agricultural prices.

Even so, the the economy will remain sound in 2015, as a result of lower inflationary pressures and a continued surplus of the current account.


-- NNT 2014-11-19

[clockman]

Consulting the fortune teller, again!

[Jimbo2014]

Every time I check it drops another 1%...

[Boxclever]

In line with "returning happiness to the people"

[dcutman]

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy in 2014 is likely to expand by 1 percent, a drop from the 1.5 to 2 percent predicted earlier by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). It is however projected to expand by between 3.5 and 4.5 percent in 2015.

I am pretty sure they have been saying this same exact same thing for the last 3 years, and next year at this time they will be saying the same thing as this year.

[jacky54]

so what who cares

[soalbundy]

hope the economy contracts,they might learn then that they can't live from corruption alone, let them eat cake.

[elgordo38]

I think they dropped the empty tea cup before reading the tea leaves. Oh well they may end up pulling a rabbit out of a hat next year. Thank God for low wages.

[ggt]

They could learn from the way the US publishes these reports...

Publish with great fanfare a 3% increase for the quarter...US economy improving and leading the world recovery...

Then 6 weeks later...the revised figures are posted quietly...with an actual increase of 1%...hoping no one will notice...

Typical and normal deception from the gov't....

[colin2]

Tesco's Accountants comes to mind !

[rickirs]

Junta chief to push for 2% growth

July 5, 2014

"In his weekly Friday night TV program “Return Happiness to the People”, Gen Prayuth vowed to strive for a GDP growth of 2% or higher against the central bank’s target of 1.5%."

Missed it by 100%. But a lot better than the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) which predicted that the economy will grow 4.2 percent during the second half of 2014 !!

Quite a disappointment when compared to the GDP growth rates experienced during the Yingluck administration through September 2013.

[rickirs]

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They could learn from the way the US publishes these reports...

Publish with great fanfare a 3% increase for the quarter...US economy improving and leading the world recovery...

Then 6 weeks later...the revised figures are posted quietly...with an actual increase of 1%...hoping no one will notice...

Typical and normal deception from the gov't....

Sorry, but you must look a little more closely (like dates):

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

October 30, 2014

"The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate [3.5%] released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency."

"GDP's 2.8% Growth Masks Shaky Details," WSJ, November 7, 2013

Third quarter was disappointing after a Q2 of 4.6% but maybe best so that the USA government doesn't relax its economic policies too soon.

[rubl]

Junta chief to push for 2% growth

July 5, 2014

"In his weekly Friday night TV program “Return Happiness to the People”, Gen Prayuth vowed to strive for a GDP growth of 2% or higher against the central bank’s target of 1.5%."

Missed it by 100%. But a lot better than the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) which predicted that the economy will grow 4.2 percent during the second half of 2014 !!

Quite a disappointment when compared to the GDP growth rates experienced during the Yingluck administration through September 2013.

Absolutely. Just shows you what a government is capable of if they spent as if there's no tomorrow.

Assuming I read the table correctly the last three entries are Q1, Q2, Q3 of 2014. That makes the 19% raise in Q4 2012. Any info on why that was? RPPS, first car scheme, anything else ??