Thai economy: Further year of auto slump would mean continued slowdown

[webfact]

Further year of auto slump would mean continued slowdown
SUCHEERA PINIJPARAKARN
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- TISCO FINANCIAL Group's chief executive has expressed concern that the economy will have remained at its current low point for longer than expected if domestic auto sales next year are below 800,000 units

Auto sales came in at less than 800,000 in 2014, and a similar situation is expected this year, after a sales surge to above 1 million units in both 2012 and 2013, accelerated by the elected government's first-car-buyer scheme.

In the view of Oranuch Apisaksirikul, group CEO of Tisco, auto sales of below 800,000 units per year in 2014 and 2015 were acceptable, as that was the level of annual sales hire-purchase operators had experienced before the arrival of the first-car tax-incentive programme.

However, if sales in 2016 were unable to recover from the previous two years, it would mean the domestic economy had been subdued for a disturbingly long period, she warned.

"What we are worried about is the economy remaining at the bottom for a long time, unless the government can start investment to stimulate it in the second half [of this year] and the economy is able to |pick up in the next 12 months," she said.

Based on the hope of additional government spending, Tisco should be able to achieve loan growth next year, albeit only single-digit growth, she added.

In the first five months of this year, domestic auto sales experienced a year-on-year drop of 15.9 per cent to 308,787 units, while several automakers and auto lenders have said full-year sales might reach just 750,000 units - compared with the previous forecast of 850,000.

Tisco is a key player in the auto-loan market, and the decline in new-car sales has affected its outstanding auto-lending portfolio, which has dropped by 14 per cent to Bt156.09 billion from Bt182.56 billion at the end of last year.

Debt repayment by first-car-scheme borrowers has exceeded the level of new lending by the group, said Oranuch.

Instalment loans account for 70 per cent of the lending portfolio at Tisco, and the plunge in new auto lending in the first half has resulted in the group's overall portfolio dropping by 5.1 per cent to Bt249.34 billion.

Amid the slowdown in new lending, it is impossible for the group to escape a fall in its loan portfolio over the full year, she said.

In the base-case scenario, lending this year will drop further over the remaining months because of the ongoing debt repayment by car-loan borrowers, she added.

"However, we have not changed our business plan in the second half, because the situation in the first half was in line with what the group estimated earlier," said the chief executive.

The group has no need to set aside additional loan-loss provisioning in the second half, as it did in the first six months, because it can manage its existing non-performing loans (NPLs), she said.

Tisco's NPLs at year-end are expected to be similar to last year's, at 2.65 per cent. They currently stand at 2.86 per cent.

Having NPLs in the range of 2.6-2.7 per cent is not bad when considering that annual lending growth was 30 per cent over the past two years, she added.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Further-year-of-auto-slump-would-mean-continued-sl-30265030.html

-- The Nation 2015-07-23

[EnglishJohn]

The problem with populist policies is that once the money has been spent, it's gone. Thailand will have to live with the legacy of Pheu-Thai for many years to come. Thank God they didn't manage to take the mega-loans off-budget.

Thai people live for today and don't even think about next week, never mind next year. Have they have learned anything or would they vote for someone who promised to do the same again tomorrow ?. Answers on a postcard please.

[Eric Loh]

The problem with populist policies is that once the money has been spent, it's gone. Thailand will have to live with the legacy of Pheu-Thai for many years to come. Thank God they didn't manage to take the mega-loans off-budget.

Thai people live for today and don't even think about next week, never mind next year. Have they have learned anything or would they vote for someone who promised to do the same again tomorrow ?. Answers on a postcard please.

Topic is about car sales slump in 2014, 2015 and next year.

[Down the rabbit hole]

The problem with populist policies is that once the money has been spent, it's gone. Thailand will have to live with the legacy of Pheu-Thai for many years to come. Thank God they didn't manage to take the mega-loans off-budget.

Thai people live for today and don't even think about next week, never mind next year. Have they have learned anything or would they vote for someone who promised to do the same again tomorrow ?. Answers on a postcard please.

There's the magic word again - 'populist' - much beloved of soldiers. the democrat party and rabid leg-biting Thaksin-haters who listen too much and think too little.

populist |ˈpɒpjʊlɪst|

noun

a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.

• a person who supports or seeks to appeal to the concerns of ordinary people. she is something of a populist—her views on immigration resemble those of the right-wing tabloid press.

That is a definition of populist. A populist policy by any government is a policy which is designed to represent the interests of ordinary people, or a policy which is just popular. The secret to how 'populist' became a dirty word in one of the most corrupt countries on the face of the globe is this: propaganda. Not very clever propaganda at that, but then they're appealing to some of the dimmer stars in the firmament in Thailand - indeed many of the propagandists are in the same dismal category themselves, being Thai, so that isn't so very surprising. Very little that happens in Thailand is clever, and unfortunately that also applies to many of the things said by foreigners who have chosen to live there - perhaps that's why tthey cjhose to, I donm't know, it's possible.

Of course, as with all propaganda, it's primarily and carefully targeted at society's normal intellects because that's where the majority of numbers are - plus or minus 2 standard deviations from the mean, however in Thailand, the mean IQ of the Thai population is less than 90, compared with (by definition) a global mean of 100. In other words, Thai people in general are just a little bit thick and greatly inclined merely to believe and do what they're told, as has been intended for a very long time. That objective is irrefutably reflected in the education and culture as well as the politics of Thailand.

It's such a pity to see some foreigners (whio should know bettter) fall into the under-intelligent trap by constantly (and mind-numbingly) referring to what in most countries is a subsidy as some kind of indication that it's inherently corrupt (which it isn't) or evil (which it also isn't).

I strongly suspect that trouble is brewing, and that when there is finally another election, the 'evil and corrupt' PTP will be back, even if in another guise,, Chanocha knows this which is why he is trying to hobble future governments in what he laughingly refers to as a constitution (Thailands 22nd if I recall correctly.. I'll bet anyone 1000 baht that he and his fascist mates come to a nasty end courtesy of the Thai people, intended the recipients of the hated 'populist' policies he cancelled and slagged off. Thais may not be wondeerful examples of jumanity, but they deserve better from Thailand.

I'm sorry to say that what I think Thailand will end up with is a civil war. Every country that ever won democracy from a previous kleptocracy has needed bloodshed for it to be possible. Thailand (imho) is no different to all the rest.

So maybe we should cut out the 'populist' crap. it really doesn't speak to a very high IQ. Or EQ for that either.

Edited July 23, 2015 by Down the rabbit hole

[Down the rabbit hole]

Apologies for the spalling ewrrors in the previos post. New k/b. Made in Thailand. Say no more.

[mikemac]

The problem with populist policies is that once the money has been spent, it's gone. Thailand will have to live with the legacy of Pheu-Thai for many years to come. Thank God they didn't manage to take the mega-loans off-budget.

Thai people live for today and don't even think about next week, never mind next year. Have they have learned anything or would they vote for someone who promised to do the same again tomorrow ?. Answers on a postcard please.

There's the magic word again - 'populist' - much beloved of soldiers. the democrat party and rabid leg-biting Thaksin-haters who listen too much and think too little.

populist |ˈpɒpjʊlɪst|

noun

a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.

• a person who supports or seeks to appeal to the concerns of ordinary people. she is something of a populist—her views on immigration resemble those of the right-wing tabloid press.

That is a definition of populist. A populist policy by any government is a policy which is designed to represent the interests of ordinary people, or a policy which is just popular. The secret to how 'populist' became a dirty word in one of the most corrupt countries on the face of the globe is this: propaganda. Not very clever propaganda at that, but then they're appealing to some of the dimmer stars in the firmament in Thailand - indeed many of the propagandists are in the same dismal category themselves, being Thai, so that isn't so very surprising. Very little that happens in Thailand is clever, and unfortunately that also applies to many of the things said by foreigners who have chosen to live there - perhaps that's why tthey cjhose to, I donm't know, it's possible.

Of course, as with all propaganda, it's primarily and carefully targeted at society's normal intellects because that's where the majority of numbers are - plus or minus 2 standard deviations from the mean, however in Thailand, the mean IQ of the Thai population is less than 90, compared with (by definition) a global mean of 100. In other words, Thai people in general are just a little bit thick and greatly inclined merely to believe and do what they're told, as has been intended for a very long time. That objective is irrefutably reflected in the education and culture as well as the politics of Thailand.

It's such a pity to see some foreigners (whio should know bettter) fall into the under-intelligent trap by constantly (and mind-numbingly) referring to what in most countries is a subsidy as some kind of indication that it's inherently corrupt (which it isn't) or evil (which it also isn't).

I strongly suspect that trouble is brewing, and that when there is finally another election, the 'evil and corrupt' PTP will be back, even if in another guise,, Chanocha knows this which is why he is trying to hobble future governments in what he laughingly refers to as a constitution (Thailands 22nd if I recall correctly.. I'll bet anyone 1000 baht that he and his fascist mates come to a nasty end courtesy of the Thai people, intended the recipients of the hated 'populist' policies he cancelled and slagged off. Thais may not be wondeerful examples of jumanity, but they deserve better from Thailand.

I'm sorry to say that what I think Thailand will end up with is a civil war. Every country that ever won democracy from a previous kleptocracy has needed bloodshed for it to be possible. Thailand (imho) is no different to all the rest.

So maybe we should cut out the 'populist' crap. it really doesn't speak to a very high IQ. Or EQ for that either.

..................."will be back, even if in another guise"......................

Coming from you that is funny !

[Mudcrab]

The problem with populist policies is that once the money has been spent, it's gone. Thailand will have to live with the legacy of Pheu-Thai for many years to come. Thank God they didn't manage to take the mega-loans off-budget.

Thai people live for today and don't even think about next week, never mind next year. Have they have learned anything or would they vote for someone who promised to do the same again tomorrow ?. Answers on a postcard please.

Topic is about car sales slump in 2014, 2015 and next year.

n the view of Oranuch Apisaksirikul, group CEO of Tisco, auto sales of below 800,000 units per year in 2014 and 2015 were acceptable, as that was the level of annual sales hire-purchase operators had experienced before the arrival of the first-car tax-incentive programme.

Very much on topic it would seem

[Down the rabbit hole]

..................."will be back, even if in another guise"......................

Coming from you that is funny !

I think you lost me. Why's that?

Oh I see... you think I'm someone else or have been registered here before. Alas not.

I think you probably outsmarted yourself, but it's just a guess.

Off-topic too.

Edited July 23, 2015 by Down the rabbit hole

[fish fingers]

Personally think it would be a good thing if the Government implemented a road tax for central Bangkok. Maybe its unfair on the poorer residents but I think its got to the point where one has to accept Bangkok is becoming an affluent metropolis (with a terrible traffic problem)

[ikke]

One answer to this OP, the economy will only go further down under the Junta, so as long as they are in charge, there will be a continued slow down.

This is not fortune telling, this as a fact.....

[fish fingers]

One answer to this OP, the economy will only go further down under the Junta, so as long as they are in charge, there will be a continued slow down.

This is not fortune telling, this as a fact.....

agree that the current government seems to put the cart before the horse on numerous issues but at least they kicked out Yingluck before she did any IMF deal with Lagarde. That would have been disastrous ..

[billd766]

The problem with populist policies is that once the money has been spent, it's gone. Thailand will have to live with the legacy of Pheu-Thai for many years to come. Thank God they didn't manage to take the mega-loans off-budget.

Thai people live for today and don't even think about next week, never mind next year. Have they have learned anything or would they vote for someone who promised to do the same again tomorrow ?. Answers on a postcard please.

Topic is about car sales slump in 2014, 2015 and next year.

Don't talk rubbish.

It is NOT off topic at all.

PTP were warned that this would happen and that when the first car scheme closed there would be a slump in car sales for quite a while. If you now add the fact that loans are harder to get, then of course there will be slump in car sales.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to work that out or what has caused it.

[billd766]

Apologies for the spalling ewrrors in the previos post. New k/b. Made in Thailand. Say no more.

More like OE. Operator Error.

[Thai at Heart]

The problem with populist policies is that once the money has been spent, it's gone. Thailand will have to live with the legacy of Pheu-Thai for many years to come. Thank God they didn't manage to take the mega-loans off-budget.

Thai people live for today and don't even think about next week, never mind next year. Have they have learned anything or would they vote for someone who promised to do the same again tomorrow ?. Answers on a postcard please.

Topic is about car sales slump in 2014, 2015 and next year.

Don't talk rubbish.

It is NOT off topic at all.

PTP were warned that this would happen and that when the first car scheme closed there would be a slump in car sales for quite a while. If you now add the fact that loans are harder to get, then of course there will be slump in car sales.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to work that out or what has caused it.

So why did the dummies in the car business predict that sales would continue to match the numbers produced during the time of the car scheme?

[billd766]

The problem with populist policies is that once the money has been spent, it's gone. Thailand will have to live with the legacy of Pheu-Thai for many years to come. Thank God they didn't manage to take the mega-loans off-budget.

Thai people live for today and don't even think about next week, never mind next year. Have they have learned anything or would they vote for someone who promised to do the same again tomorrow ?. Answers on a postcard please.

Topic is about car sales slump in 2014, 2015 and next year.

Don't talk rubbish.

It is NOT off topic at all.

PTP were warned that this would happen and that when the first car scheme closed there would be a slump in car sales for quite a while. If you now add the fact that loans are harder to get, then of course there will be slump in car sales.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to work that out or what has caused it.

So why did the dummies in the car business predict that sales would continue to match the numbers produced during the time of the car scheme?

They didn't because like any business they have to plan several years ahead to lay in stocks and supplies and they seem yo be brighter than you.

In the view of Oranuch Apisaksirikul, group CEO of Tisco, auto sales of below 800,000 units per year in 2014 and 2015 were acceptable, as that was the level of annual sales hire-purchase operators had experienced before the arrival of the first-car tax-incentive programme.

Tisco is a loan company NOT a manufacturer and they expected lower than average sales in 2014 and 2015 but hoped that business would have picked up in 2016. Through various reasons it doesn't look as though it will. Bad for their profits but less debt for the people of Thailand.