Bangkok bomb: The different theories considered, and why they are met with skepticism

[Puwa]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand. When queried on why the bombing was timed to explode at a peak visiting period, she said maybe it was a lone nutcase who was just desperate to destroy the shrine without considering the carnage to the worshipers.

That's quite interesting, not because I "want" the Red Shirts to be guilty (I don't), but because it provides a link to the meaning of the shrine. Remember, it was built by an army general in the 50s, and feeds a lot of superstitious beliefs. Like many aspects of Hinduism incorporated into Thai religion, the shrine is aligned with the old ruling elite. It was of course the site of the Reds' rise and suppression in 2010. People put a lot of stock in luck and magic and superstition, and are often inspired to do bizarre things.

[MockingJay]

As I said - none of the 6 theories feels right. Perhaps that weakling just wanted to make headlines and have his face printed on a glossy magazine, being idolized. Have a look at this - it's shocking:

[MockingJay]

Has anyone noticed that there hasn't been a word said or printed about the Koh Tao murder trial

since Tuesday 18th? The hearing dates are 18, 19, 20, 21, 27, 28 August.

Interesting, Lensta! I love thinking oustide the box... but I don't think that anyone would kill an additional 20+, injuring hundreds to defer the public eye from a botched double murder investigation. I think that Koh Tao Mafia family is guilty on many charges, but certainly not connected to the Bangok bombing. However, the distraction could be used of course to either have the KT case disappear in quicksand or to hang the two patsies despite any evidence contradicting their involvement... In any case, you got a point there.

Edited August 20, 2015 by MockingJay

[Charlie Croker]

Of the few people I have spoken to, there seems strong belief that the red shirts faction carried this out.

What is omitted in the story is the date, the location, the timing, the intended target and secondary target, and the history of red shirts using bombs to intimidate people. The date is 1 day from the 2010 clash between red shirts and government troops, at the same location.

So what if the bomb was bigger than before? The point is its a bomb. its the same M.O.

There was a bombing of a market in Chachoengsao on April 19th last year and police found 1,900 ping pong bombs following the bombing. Ask yourselves this question. How many people can be killed with 1,900 ping pong bombs? I suggest more than 20.

As for the fact that a Thai person didn't do it, lets wait and see how that theory pans out.

Another factor is the timing in relation to the stripping of Thaksins rank.

Another factor omitted in the story is the obvious collateral damage, the Thai economy. Who else has a history of trying to destabilize the economy?

If they did it, why not admit it?, that's obvious too, its a terrific political blunder. I think this could be a final nail in the coffin of this movement if it can be proven.

While its important to remain even handed, its also important to consider all the facts.

Charlie, you say you have spoke to "a few people", and they are of the opinion the red shirts are behind this. That's fine, and I don't doubt what you say. But I live in Chiang Mai, and my wife and I have spoken to DOZENS of people here since this incident, and the overwhelming majority of them think the Junta hired people to do this so that they can maintain their control over the country, and further delay elections.

The thing is, at this point, no one really knows a damn thing for sure, and the way the RTP and this government operate, it's highly likely that we never will. Surat Thani - parking garage - car packed with explosives - cops saying "we have suspects" - how's that one going?

Hopefully, and I say that with a grain of salt, the cops will actually, truly find out who is behind this, and put an end to all the guess work and various theories floating around. But, I won't hold my breath on that happening.

I asked the same question, about this being a put up job by the military government.

The answer was simple and convincing. They don't need to convince anyone of anything. They have a military force backing their play, little interest in what individuals or partisan groups want and article 44 to do pretty much anything they want.

They don't need an excuse to imprison people, bring back Marshall law or do anything. They can just do it.

Now that's clear. Your ' DOZENS of friends' have 1 reason to suggest that the junta did it (to garner sympathy for their cause), against the multiple other reasons suggesting the red shirts did it.

BTW anyone wanting to kill Chinese people would have planted the bomb in China. Not in Bangkok - That theory beggars believe.

Its like punching your enemies' friend in the face and asking them to tell their friend how bad it hurt.

[MockingJay]

Anyone who believes the junta is behind this must be completely out of his mind. As Charlie C. wrote, they don't need to prove anything, letting alone creating a reason for further crackdowns, laws and restrictions or reinstating martial law. They'd just do it!

The attack makes them, especially the leader look bad. Despite big words, he/they can't do their job, bring stability, positive change or anything positive at all... If the junta would be behind the bombing, it would be like shooting themselves in the head. They're already on wobbly terrain and have enough shiyte to clean up already. The Bkk bombing is the last thing they need. Qui bono?

Edited August 20, 2015 by MockingJay

[Puwa]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand.

Sounds like nonsense.

It wouldn't to many Thais. You are a farang and you understand very little about Thai superstitious beliefs.

Superstition aside, it's implausible that the Reds would choose such an inefficient way to destroy the shrine, if that were their intention.

Not sure their intention was to destroy the shrine; I think their intention was to cause death and terror within view and in the compound of the shrine.

To "destroy" a religious object does not necessarily mean to physically smash it, but to undo its protective or symbolic power. If the shrine represents the ability of the old guard to protect and rule Bangkok, as granted by Brahma, then killing people standing right in front of it is a way to challenge that divine connection.

Of course, whether others believe in the shrine any less is a completely separate matter. In any case, the people who make offerings there are really just concerned with it's "wishing well" properties, rather than larger issues of political symbolism.

[mmh8]

no need for skepticism people. They sent Uighur to China for being Uighur, not for commiting a crime.

how often do you see the turks demonstrate outside an embassy. they have pissed off sunni muslims the world over

[MockingJay]

Any western crime profiler would declare most of the posters in this thread insane, regardless of him being a foreigner and ignorant to superstition. The Thaksin could not return unless the shrine is destroyed by far is the craziest, idiotic BS I ever read...

Edited August 20, 2015 by MockingJay

[kerrysum]

Whoever was responsible for this attack has managed to undermine the authority of the current junta. The junta couldn't prevent this attack, they can't catch the culprits and they don't even know where to start looking.

Sounds logical to me....

The story just isn't panning out, I really think they are just at a loss.... Been that way for years

[hawker9000]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand.

Sounds like nonsense.

It wouldn't to many Thais. You are a farang and you understand very little about Thai superstitious beliefs.

Superstition aside, it's implausible that the Reds would choose such an inefficient way to destroy the shrine, if that were their intention.

Improbable perhaps, but not implausible, since if it really were the Reds, their objective wouldn't have actually been to destroy the shrine itself so much as to damage the government's credibility and put a hole in the tourist boat by killing & maiming. That's unless you buy into the superstition thing (i.e., that the shrine has to be destroyed before Thaksin can return).

And how much closer could the bomber - who evidently wasn't intending suicide - have actually gotten with a backpack, package or whatever without getting everyone's immediate attention or possibly even sending everybody running away in a panic? In the normal course of things, the central shrine itself is not really a place where people set stuff down like that.

[edhart]

we all know how good the thai police are ,they should ask the help of british police or isreal got years of experience of bombs

[dcpo]

Improbable perhaps, but not implausible, since if it really were the Reds, their objective wouldn't have actually been to destroy the shrine itself so much as to damage the government's credibility and put a hole in the tourist boat by killing & maiming. That's unless you buy into the superstition thing (i.e., that the shrine has to be destroyed before Thaksin can return).

And how much closer could the bomber - who evidently wasn't intending suicide - have actually gotten with a backpack, package or whatever without getting everyone's immediate attention or possibly even sending everybody running away in a panic? In the normal course of things, the central shrine itself is not really a place where people set stuff down like that.

I'm saying that if their intention were to destroy it it's implausible they would have chosen to do so in this way, with additional bombs placed further from the scene and intended to go off at a busy time. Presumably the intention was not to destroy the shrine, but, as you suggest, cause chaos and terror. I still don't think that this implicates the reds (or their leadership at least), as they benefit most from a speedy return to elections, which a bombing campaign in Bangkok could only delay. There's a better argument that the bombing helps the junta to stay in power (on the assumption that that is their aim), though I think anyone suggesting they were behind it is as deluded as the 'it was Thaksin!' people.

[mikiea]

The Uighur theory seems to be picking up steam.

huh ? ......................where in your own head ?

[Fat Haggis]

I have said all along, if you really really wnated to hurt "tourism" then you'd hit places like Pattaya and Phuket, all we have is the Juntas beliefs that this was the aim of the device, and of course, they'd never lie about such things either?

Within hours of the bomb going off, their sole concern was about "tourism" never mind the human loss of life.

Same with the Yuan devaluation... "Thai Tourism will not be effected"

This sorry group of individuals running the country are all out of ideas, out of their depth, and have put all their eggs in a single basket called "Tourism"

[BlindMagician]

Theories are theories I will wait till they are caught.

Did anyone notice the man in the red shirt was sitting exactly in the spot where the yellow shirt man sat sown. He stood up as soon as the other man came as if to give him the seat. Then the red shirt and white shirt guys made a screen by standing in front of the yellow shirt. Hiding his removal of backpack from most people. After the backpack was off the red and white walked away. Looked to me very organized. Appears to be done by people with very good training May have been trained by someone with military background or in military.

I agree - wait until they are caught.

Too much speculation, too few facts.

[AYJAYDEE]

chinese false flag

[Adeeos]

Theories are theories I will wait till they are caught.

Did anyone notice the man in the red shirt was sitting exactly in the spot where the yellow shirt man sat sown. He stood up as soon as the other man came as if to give him the seat. Then the red shirt and white shirt guys made a screen by standing in front of the yellow shirt. Hiding his removal of backpack from most people. After the backpack was off the red and white walked away. Looked to me very organized. Appears to be done by people with very good training May have been trained by someone with military background or in military.

I said this in another thread also,,, I also noticed that when walking away, the red shirt guy quickly glances over his right shoulder at yellow shirt guy, and then quickly looks straight ahead as if he, "caught" himself like, "no, don't look at him"..

[Fat Haggis]

Theories are theories I will wait till they are caught.

Did anyone notice the man in the red shirt was sitting exactly in the spot where the yellow shirt man sat sown. He stood up as soon as the other man came as if to give him the seat. Then the red shirt and white shirt guys made a screen by standing in front of the yellow shirt. Hiding his removal of backpack from most people. After the backpack was off the red and white walked away. Looked to me very organized. Appears to be done by people with very good training May have been trained by someone with military background or in military.

I agree - wait until they are caught.

Too much speculation, too few facts.

And the worst offenders are the ones wearing uniforms, and the ones running the country!!

[mikiea]

when have the thai police been right about a matter such as this ....never....let them stay with the simple crimes and low level of extortion of the public . Uighur's did not do this , they are almost powerless in china . the han Chinese ride them like a rented mule . maybe the police can put the break dancing police on the case .

[Baerboxer]

we all know how good the thai police are ,they should ask the help of british police or isreal got years of experience of bombs

I agree with you that seeking help from more experienced and knowledgeable security services would be sensible. AFP have offered, British, Israeli, American security services all have significant experience.

But when has Thailand ever asked for help - flood management, KT and other murders and serious crimes? They even arrested some volunteer foreigners helping with the Tsunami effects for not having work permits! They don't want or even believe they need any help; and certainly not from any foreigner. Know all arrogance fueled by never to lose face mentality.

What ever theory you chose to believe the reality is we'll probably never really know the truth.

[Nobb]

Theories are like a holes because every one has one!

[Oziex1]

Anyone who believes the junta is behind this must be completely out of his mind. As Charlie C. wrote, they don't need to prove anything, letting alone creating a reason for further crackdowns, laws and restrictions or reinstating martial law. They'd just do it!

The attack makes them, especially the leader look bad. Despite big words, he/they can't do their job, bring stability, positive change or anything positive at all... If the junta would be behind the bombing, it would be like shooting themselves in the head. They're already on wobbly terrain and have enough shiyte to clean up already. The Bkk bombing is the last thing they need. Qui bono?

I would agree with this, they have nothing to prove and they can do as they wish. that would seem fair and logical.

However this is where the problems start when us Westerners start to apply our reasoning to events in Thailand.

[kiwikeith]

Theories are theories I will wait till they are caught.

Did anyone notice the man in the red shirt was sitting exactly in the spot where the yellow shirt man sat sown. He stood up as soon as the other man came as if to give him the seat. Then the red shirt and white shirt guys made a screen by standing in front of the yellow shirt. Hiding his removal of backpack from most people. After the backpack was off the red and white walked away. Looked to me very organized. Appears to be done by people with very good training May have been trained by someone with military background or in military.

Did you notice also that they said the yellow shirt pretended to take pic on his phone -- looked to me like he brought up the screen to select a number then he walked away hit dial and up she went.

Very well organised and well made bomb.

The Thais got put off purchasing chinese submarines a few weeks back, I would not put this past the CIA and if it was them no one will ever find them guilty and it will be all theory and blame.

It was definately aimed at Chinese if they had of blown up Nana and killed heaps of europeans and Thais there would be more hell to play.

A message not to get to cozy with china but just a theory that is plausible as the ones above.

[Tomtomtom69]

So if it was the red shirts, what was the point of the attack? They can't use it to extort the government because the government would gladly come forward and inform the public that the red shirts were behind it. Therefore they cannot claim responsibility.

The only theory is that it would hurt tourism.

Tourism is only a small percent of the economy and even a 10-15% decrease in tourists is not going to make a big dent and you want to risk being found out over that?

The red shirt theory seems like a very long reach.

While we don't yet know the motive behind the attack you are certainly wrong about tourism and it's importance to the Thai economy.

As everyone knows, Thailand is one of most tourism obsessed countries in the world, and yes it IS a pillar of the economy. At least 10% of the economy is based from tourism, with up to 17% if indirect sources are considered and this is only likely to rise in the future.

I don't think the Thai economy, which is already doing rather poorly, would cope well with a 10-15% decrease in tourists even though I can understand that there might be a certain segment of the population who suffers from "tourism fatigue", just like me. Interestingly, most Thais seem to want as many tourists to come as possible, if there were one day 100 or 200 million tourists coming to Thailand per year most Thais would be happy with that and in fact would encourage it.

Most Chinese and western people associate Thailand with one thing and that's tourism. So does the international media, in just about every single report about Thailand on any given topic, tourism is mentioned.

So there you go. Plenty of evidence that tourism is big business in Thailand.

And now there's one more TV news piece that proves this:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/849833-bangkok-blast-strikes-blow-to-tourism-pillar-of-ailing-thai-economy/

[Oziex1]

So many theories, the troubling part is when and if they do catch someone will we believe them. Not the most credible bunch are they.

[Tomtomtom69]

I have said all along, if you really really wnated to hurt "tourism" then you'd hit places like Pattaya and Phuket, all we have is the Juntas beliefs that this was the aim of the device, and of course, they'd never lie about such things either?

Within hours of the bomb going off, their sole concern was about "tourism" never mind the human loss of life.

Same with the Yuan devaluation... "Thai Tourism will not be effected"

This sorry group of individuals running the country are all out of ideas, out of their depth, and have put all their eggs in a single basket called "Tourism"

Why should that be a surprise? Thailand has been obsessed with tourism and numbers for decades and no matter which government is in power, tourism seems to be the most important industry out there.

There are Facebook groups, including one called "Bangkok Expats" where some Thais try to throw any foreigners who believe Thailand is a dangerous place to visit due to the bombings under the bus. I mean, get a life. Yes, a terrorist attack just occurred - it's quite natural for people to be scared. Life will never be the same again and it would be good if these Thais who are going around saying things like "yes, please come", "Thailand is safe" blah blah blah get their heads examined.

There are more important things in life than tourism, but apparently not in Thailand.

[skildpadden]

All good reasons, but I still lean towards that it is a self radicalized person or small group. They can easily have had an affilitation with the Redshirts, but I don't see the Redshirts as a homogenous group, but a lot of different fractions. We saw in 2010 these different fractions - some much more radical than others (e.g. Maj Gen Khattiya) - and that it was difficult for their leaders to control these groups.

The person or group may have grown desillusioned that their leaders are not aggressive enough and want to take matters into their own hands and make it really ugly.
The attack could easily have been posted in advance on the Facebook page (it actually makes sense), that was copied by the arrested UDD guy, to tell people that they have the guts to do something that their leaders won't.

If this theory is correct you cannot blame all the Redshirt as a whole, but certainly this affilitation must take a deep look into at its members and be better at containing the extremist elements - and work together with authorities. E.g. if a warning was posted to a group of 70.000 members, why did no one alert authorities?

If a warning was indeed received but not given enough attention the authorities must also take a good look at themselves.

[morpho]

Theories are theories I will wait till they are caught.

Did anyone notice the man in the red shirt was sitting exactly in the spot where the yellow shirt man sat sown. He stood up as soon as the other man came as if to give him the seat. Then the red shirt and white shirt guys made a screen by standing in front of the yellow shirt. Hiding his removal of backpack from most people. After the backpack was off the red and white walked away. Looked to me very organized. Appears to be done by people with very good training May have been trained by someone with military background or in military.

Did you notice also that they said the yellow shirt pretended to take pic on his phone -- looked to me like he brought up the screen to select a number then he walked away hit dial and up she went.

Very well organised and well made bomb.

The Thais got put off purchasing chinese submarines a few weeks back, I would not put this past the CIA and if it was them no one will ever find them guilty and it will be all theory and blame.

It was definately aimed at Chinese if they had of blown up Nana and killed heaps of europeans and Thais there would be more hell to play.

A message not to get to cozy with china but just a theory that is plausible as the ones above.

If this was targeted at Chinese, then the perpetrators chose their target poorly. I live in Chiang Mai and Chinese tourists are everywhere in packs. There are busloads of them here who would be easy targets with minimal or no collateral damage to other ethnicities. Plus CCTV surveillance here is nothing compared to what it is in Bangkok. It seems to me that the perpetrators chose the shrine right smack in the middle of Bangkok for some reason other than to harm a particular group of people.

One thing does seem quite clear, whoever did it doesn't want to be found or identified since no one has taken any responsibility for this heinous act. Even those groups who could take responsibility are shying away from publicly saying so.

[laobali]

The theory from Mrs. Noo is that there is a strongly held belief by the Red Shirts and the Big Boss that until the Erawan shrine is destroyed the Big Boss will be unable to return to Thailand.

Sounds like nonsense.

Trouble is, there's a lot of it about – and it's contagious.

[Kru Baa]

One theory is missing.......

What theory is that? Really I want to hear it.