Oil market resists: BREXIT presses, OPEC ruins

The dynamics of the North Sea Brent oil prices in June showed the smallest lag for the recent year and a half and the highest average price since early 2016 – $48.24 per barrel. The last month was the first in a period of low prices when Brent average spot price (FOB) decreased by a minimum of $13.23 per barrel compared to June 2015. All other months of 2016 showed a greater lag – from $17.06 per barrel to a maximum of $25.91 per barrel compared to the same period of 2015.

Although Brent oil average price since early 2016 is still less than last year’s price – $39.8 per barrel compared to $57.84 per barrel, 2016 looks more resolute than the previous one in terms of oil price stability. For example, the modal value for Brent oil prices lag amounted to about $50 per barrel within six months of 2015 compared to the same period of 2014; while the same value is nearly three times less – $17 per barrel in 2016 compared to 2015.

The oil prices increased in June and on average in the second quarter due to a two-fold decrease of the global market glut up to 1.09 million barrels per day compared to 2.58 million barrels oversupply in the first quarter. Besides a decrease in glut, the growth of demand for crude oil up to 93.25 million barrels per day compared to 93.09 million barrels per day in the first quarter also contributed to an increase in oil prices.

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