Growth is likely to stay below 3.2%

[rooster59]

Growth is likely to stay below 3.2%

 

BANGKOK:-- The central bank is concerned that the country's economic growth may grow less than 3.2%, attributing Brexit, ongoing clampdown on zero dollar tours as main reason.

 

Jaturong Jantarangs, an assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand’s  monetary policy group and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) secretary, stated that a result of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU in its Brexit consensus, Thailand’s economic growth for 2016 runs the risk of growing at less than 3.2%.

 

He said the UK’s decision has major global implications directly affecting the global economic recovery which in turn will mean that Thailand and its major trading partners will also see their economies growing at less that acceptable level.

 

Compounding the matter further especially for Thailand is the negative impact on the tourism sector by the recent emergence of so-called zero-dollar tours that have resulted in expected reduction of Chinese tourists to the country, he said.

 

Zero-dollar tours or ‘kickback’ tours involves packaged tours that are priced below cost to lure budget travelers.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/growth-likely-stay-3-2/

 

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2016-09-24

[Brer Fox]

So it is the Chinese tourists and associated tour companies who are to blame for the lack of growth. The same Chinese so beloved by TAT. Brexit also cops some blame; for why and how is not explained.

Growth for 2016 was originally predicted to be 2.9% and I am betting that number is not far off the mark.

Of course the lack of growth has nothing to do with the political situation and the long and progressive decline in exports. Or foreign investors fleeing late 2014 and not returning. Or Thai investors finding other neighbouring countries more rewarding for the risk. Or tourists finding other more attractive, cheaper and safer holiday destinations in  S.E. Asia.

Just the British and the Chinese and Chinese tour companies are to blame. Never the Thai's themselves.

[williamgeorgeallen]

dont think he would be allowed to blame the army/government or he would be out of a job or even put in jail. have to wonder how they calculate the growth figures. would wonder why they dont just make up numbers like the TAT do.

[HoboKay]

As a retiree in Thailand, should I be concerned?

 

I have time to spare on more mindless muses, but should I?

[petedk]

Shortly after Brexit, I remember the government saying that it wouldn't have any impact on the Thai economy.

 

 

[HoboKay]

11 minutes ago, petedk said:

Shortly after Brexit, I remember the government saying that it wouldn't have any impact on the Thai economy.

 

 

From the current cohort running this place, is that a typical reactionary-foot-in-mouth response or gleeful positivism in the Thai economy?

 

[Srikcir]

4 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The central bank is concerned that the country's economic growth may grow less than 3.2%

Such an about face.

February 2016: Governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) Veerathai Santiprabhob projects that the Thai economy will be able to expand 3.5 percent this year despite lukewarm exports.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/894345-bot-chief-estimates-gdp-growth-at-35/

Those exports aren't lukewarm, they're subzero and worsening. But sadly with the absolute control of Prayut over every government facet, BOT is unlikely to deliver an honest prediction of the nation's economic condition.

[chiang mai]

3 hours ago, HoboKay said:

From the current cohort running this place, is that a typical reactionary-foot-in-mouth response or gleeful positivism in the Thai economy?

 

 

And you of course are able to forecast precisely, what the impact of political events in another country, half way around the world, six months ago, will have on the local economy in the next six months.? Impressive, can I have your email address, I'd like to employ you as my IFA!

[Brer Fox]

5 hours ago, HoboKay said:

As a retiree in Thailand, should I be concerned?

 

I have time to spare on more mindless muses, but should I?

You should not be concerned. Just ponder on your mindless muses but please keep them to yourself.

[GiantFan]

Emperors new clothes.  Hold the party line and never look at the numbers.

[joecoolfrog]

9 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

And you of course are able to forecast precisely, what the impact of political events in another country, half way around the world, six months ago, will have on the local economy in the next six months.? Impressive, can I have your email address, I'd like to employ you as my IFA!

Oh please !

Every year we see highly optimistic forecasts which are gradually revised down , the accompanying excuses are often far from convincing. Its not a case of precise forecasting , its a question of transparent honesty rather than optimistic spin followed by blatant face saving..

 

[NongKhaiKid]

Got to love the facts and figures produced here as they're so flexible and change as much to suit the junta's needs on the day as actual changes in the economy, tourist numbers etc.

About the only time that LoS cares what's going on elsewhere in the world is when there's something, such as Brexit, that can be kept for use an an excuse to explain poor results here.

[HoboKay]

9 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

And you of course are able to forecast precisely, what the impact of political events in another country, half way around the world, six months ago, will have on the local economy in the next six months.? Impressive, can I have your email address, I'd like to employ you as my IFA!

I can't and I'll keep my thoughts to myself and out of your way. 

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, joecoolfrog said:

Oh please !

Every year we see highly optimistic forecasts which are gradually revised down , the accompanying excuses are often far from convincing. Its not a case of precise forecasting , its a question of transparent honesty rather than optimistic spin followed by blatant face saving..

 

 

Question(s):

 

Is a population better motivated when economic forecasts are initially (truthfully) negative and later are confirmed as such, or when they are initially (falsely) positive and later are found to be negative, and is Thailand the only country to use this ploy, rhetorical questions of course!

Edited September 24, 2016 by chiang mai

[Srikcir]

30 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Question(s):

 

Is a population better motivated when economic forecasts are initially (truthfully) negative and later are confirmed as such, or when they are initially (falsely) positive and later are found to be negative, and is Thailand the only country to use this ploy, rhetorical questions of course!

A population is better motivated by more purchasing power (aka cash) and lower household debt than by rhetorical presumptions. If spiritual motivation were the answer to economic success, then North Korea might be the most economically advanced country in the world. In a society where there is freedom of expression and access to unfiltered information, a government's unrealistic pronouncements about a nation's prospective economic health can be fact-checked. Such internal check & balance is scarce now in Thailand and there's personal risk to openly challenge the government.

 

In fact in June 2016 the World Bank lowered its annual growth rate from January from 2.9% to 2.4% due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade, and diminishing capital flows.¹ Factors that even the Prayut regime has repeatedly admitted since January 2016 to the present might stall the Thai economy, yet continued to increasing growth predictions until now, end of the 3rd quarter.

 

Prayut had pinned higher growth largley on government investment that would subplant all other major sources (ie., exports and foreign investment) for GDP growth (tourism having only a nominal 10% contribution). But while he delivered a vast array of expensive government propsective projects, less than 1% of the authorized funds for FY 2016 has been spent by the end of August 2016. Obviously, saying and doing are not synonomus even with the power of Article 44.

¹   http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/06/07/global-growth-forecast-again-revised-lower

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

Question(s):

 

Is a population better motivated when economic forecasts are initially (truthfully) negative and later are confirmed as such, or when they are initially (falsely) positive and later are found to be negative, and is Thailand the only country to use this ploy, rhetorical questions of course!

I concede the point that lies , opium or religion are useful in sedating the natives.

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, Srikcir said:

A population is better motivated by more purchasing power (aka cash) and lower household debt than by rhetorical presumptions. If spiritual motivation were the answer to economic success, then North Korea might be the most economically advanced country in the world. In a society where there is freedom of expression and access to unfiltered information, a government's unrealistic pronouncements about a nation's prospective economic health can be fact-checked. Such internal check & balance is scarce now in Thailand and there's personal risk to openly challenge the government.

 

In fact in June 2016 the World Bank lowered its annual growth rate from January from 2.9% to 2.4% due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade, and diminishing capital flows.¹ Factors that even the Prayut regime has repeatedly admitted since January 2016 to the present might stall the Thai economy, yet continued to increasing growth predictions until now, end of the 3rd quarter.

 

Prayut had pinned higher growth largley on government investment that would subplant all other major sources (ie., exports and foreign investment) for GDP growth (tourism having only a nominal 10% contribution). But while he delivered a vast array of expensive government propsective projects, less than 1% of the authorized funds for FY 2016 has been spent by the end of August 2016. Obviously, saying and doing are not synonomus even with the power of Article 44.

¹   http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/06/07/global-growth-forecast-again-revised-lower

 

No, you miss the point,  it being that a glass half full message is motivationally more inspiring than the obverse.

[maewang99]

this is a serious topic as it is directly related to central government revenues... and the only makeup is other revenue sources, some of them already on the table and some not yet.  a major impetus will be the health care system, which was predicated on an assumption of a 5% minimum annual GDP growth rate... so we're about 30% short, which is huge....  and which cannot hardly be touched at all on the expenditure side, of course.... I have all of this basic easy stuff correct.... in the ballpark, right? and many of those options are not good for the economy either, so they have a negative feedback to them.  quite unlike the cheap Thai Baht export strategy.  quite unlike.  and the prospects in a world where cheap currencies (labor) is no longer an asset at all..... is quite a problem as the only real solution is long term and starts with the letter E at a minimum.... the western version of it.... not the Thai one. building stuff... whether it's more school buildings or airports, which is the hotty nowadays everywhere.... without 'software' changes.... will go nowhere. 

Edited September 25, 2016 by maewang99

[chiang mai]

Or perhaps you all prefer the BOE approach to forecasting, the fantail chart with the fan spreading from -2 to +5 and the commentary that reads, "and our central forecast is...blah blah"!

[Srikcir]

3 hours ago, chiang mai said:

No, you miss the point,  it being that a glass half full message is motivationally more inspiring than the obverse.

There also comes a point at which a glass claimed to be half full must be recognized as no longer motivational but mere propoganda to mislead and manipulate the public. Prayut's glass is becoming like the dams, empty.

[chiang mai]

16 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

There also comes a point at which a glass claimed to be half full must be recognized as no longer motivational but mere propoganda to mislead and manipulate the public. Prayut's glass is becoming like the dams, empty.

 

The dams (reservoirs actually) are filling nicely! http://www.thaiwater.net/DATA/REPORT/php/rid_dam_1.php?lang=en

[Nbarch]

I was in the UK in the run up to the Brexit vote and most politicians were saying if the people voted to leave it would all be 'doom and gloom'. So the Brits ignored the politicians; voted to leave the Brussels madhouse and guess what happened? Nothing, well Pound Sterling dropped a bit which is now boosting exports. But Europe and other countries know that trade to the UK has to remain the same, for everybody sake.

 

So blaming Brexit is not the real reason for the drop in Thai economic growth;  perhaps it for other reasons closer to the junta? Perhaps the Thai people are not really happy? 

[chiang mai]

2 hours ago, Nbarch said:

I was in the UK in the run up to the Brexit vote and most politicians were saying if the people voted to leave it would all be 'doom and gloom'. So the Brits ignored the politicians; voted to leave the Brussels madhouse and guess what happened? Nothing, well Pound Sterling dropped a bit which is now boosting exports. But Europe and other countries know that trade to the UK has to remain the same, for everybody sake.

 

So blaming Brexit is not the real reason for the drop in Thai economic growth;  perhaps it for other reasons closer to the junta? Perhaps the Thai people are not really happy? 

 

I think the rationale goes like this:

 

Pound drops 12% following Brexit hence cost of vacations in Thailand now 12% more expensive thus tourist numbers drop from 1 million per year to ?. It's a real and valid consideration that causing many UK expats to leave the country.