Ulysses G. Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 59 minutes ago, SoiBiker said: Who knows how many state secrets he revealed to Putin during those times he met him that he lied about during the debate? I do. NONE. He did not know any. He did not actually meet him anyway. They were both interviewed by the same show, the interviews happened to be broadcast on the same night. They did not speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Lawrence Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 It depends who votes in the election. Trump is good at anger-in-up the red neck vote. Hilary tried but she looks as Trumps jabs were landing. Why can't they have three or four different parties? running against each other? Anyway Putin is his mate....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AYJAYDEE Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob9 said: Hillary's supporters are just the same as Hilary. Despite the best efforts of all the hillbots, this is the real Briebart poll. And I could post a whole lot more - Trump clearly won debates 2 and 3. And who will ever forget "you would be in jail". he will lose the only poll that counts, get used to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 It's beginning to look now that Trump will be a double-digit loser of a great number of individual states. That is, lose a state by double-digits. Trump is on course to lose a record number of states by more than 9 points. While GW Bush for instance won Texas in 2004 by 21 points over John Kerry, Trump is behind by 10 points or more in a record number of states. Trump is in the double-digit tank in more than a dozen of the most populous states with the largest number of Electoral College Votes. It indicates a chasm in the popular vote each candidate will get. The Electoral College Vote will naturally follow immediately behind it. (It's the consensus that if HRC wins overall by 8% or more, chances improve strongly the House can flip to D majority control.) It is safe to also say that between November 1st and 7th Trump's bottom will fall out, which would mean red states teetering blue will vote blue, such as Arizona. The 3rd party guy in solid red Utah may well win the state's 5 ECVs, however, the significance is that the Republican candidate Trump will be denied the ECVs of a solid red state. Trump can't win for losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 12 hours ago, Chicog said: Bookies don't give away money. Indeed. In fact I don't post the oddsmakers lines this close to the election because they begin to pad the odds to entice clients to go with the guy who's losing. Bring in more volume turnover of cash. This time in the campaign the oddsmakes fatten up the odds a bit to shift the green more to, in this election, the underdog which as we well know is Trump. In Vegas Trump has 22% odds to win, whereas Nate Silver and NYT, in its stats labs, give President Hillary Clinton 87% and 92% ratings to win, respectively. In fact Trump's Vegas odds have moved to 7-2 (22%) now from 17-4 a month ago. (Shifting and increasing the volume of the green.) HRC in Vegas has odds of 1-6 or 85.7% to win, which equals Nate Silver's reckonings but is considerably away from that of the NYT. (HRC also surpasses OB's Vegas line in 2012 of 1-5 which is 83.7% probability of his being reelected.) Odds up to and immediately after the nominating conventions are excellent reference points. At this point in a Potus campaign they do tell the fundamental story but they start to get colored a bit by the pressures of the green on those who make the odds. HRC remains the heavily odds-on favorite in Vegas, London, Dublin. As noted above, there's this also... Hillary Clinton Already Won The 2016 Election? Irish Bookie Claims Democrat Nominee's Win Over Donald Trump Is Sealed, Pays Out Bettors There are about 21 days left until Election Day, but one bookie has already said the race is over. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power said Tuesday it has paid out more than $1,000,000 to bettors who wagered on a victory for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The polls are showing Clinton up by a pretty wide margin and Paddy Power has apparently seen enough. Before paying out, the bookie pegged the former secretary of state's odds at 2/11 or an 85.7 percent shot at winning. The bookie had Trump at 100/1 at the beginning of his campaign. At the time they paid out he was at 9/2, or an 18.2 percent shot at winning. "Trump gave it a hell of a shot going from a rank outsider to the Republican candidate, but his chances now look as patchy as his tan," the company said in a statement. Despite Trump’s Make America Great Again message appealing to many disillusioned voters, it looks as though America are going to put a woman in the White House." http://www.ibtimes.com/hillary-clinton-already-won-2016-election-irish-bookie-claims-democrat-nominees-win-2433449?utm_source=internal&utm_campaign=incontent&utm_medium=related1 That's all they wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 4 hours ago, Bob9 said: Hillary's supporters are just the same as Hilary. Despite the best efforts of all the hillbots, this is the real Briebart poll. And I could post a whole lot more - Trump clearly won debates 2 and 3. And who will ever forget "you would be in jail". The Trump Train got derailed by a bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 8 hours ago, Bob9 said: Hillary's supporters are just the same as Hilary. Despite the best efforts of all the hillbots, this is the real Briebart poll. And I could post a whole lot more - Trump clearly won debates 2 and 3. And who will ever forget "you would be in jail". Another demonstration of ignorance. At the time I and others reported, Trump was losing and losing badly. And there are so many things that make these online polls junk. To name just one: you can vote as many times as you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony5 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 21 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: Another demonstration of ignorance. At the time I and others reported, Trump was losing and losing badly. And there are so many things that make these online polls junk. To name just one: you can vote as many times as you like. So you consider your opinion more important than that of 271,623 others? Oh and the possibility to vote as many times as you like, applies to both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AYJAYDEE Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 1 minute ago, Anthony5 said: So you consider your opinion more important than that of 271,623 others? Oh and the possibility to vote as many times as you like, applies to both sides. only one side NEEDS phoney polls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony5 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, AYJAYDEE said: only one side NEEDS phoney polls Is that because the other side already has a phoney candidate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AYJAYDEE Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Just now, Anthony5 said: Is that because the other side already has a phoney candidate? no, a winning one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony5 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 4 minutes ago, AYJAYDEE said: no, a winning one Why we need polls if we have you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AYJAYDEE Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Just now, Anthony5 said: Why we need polls if we have you? because I have to read them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 13 minutes ago, Anthony5 said: So you consider your opinion more important than that of 271,623 others? Oh and the possibility to vote as many times as you like, applies to both sides. Because they have no basis in statistical principals. They tend to draw people who visit the website. People who visit the website tend to be right wing. If the Huffington Post were to offer a similar poll, it would skew towards Clinton. I would say that you need to brush up on statistics a bit but really, this all this requires is basic common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geriatrickid Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 "You can't polish this turd" Van Jones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geriatrickid Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 5 hours ago, Publicus said: The Trump Train got derailed by a bus. The short bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Publicus Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 20 hours ago, dunroaming said: It's not over until it's over no matter what the polls say. Trump is dying a slow death now but will still draw breath for a little longer It's not over until the fat lady sings then gets insulted by Trump. It's confirmed, Trump has booked tickets at a performance for both to occur, on Monday, November 7th. It's SRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob9 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 14 hours ago, AYJAYDEE said: he will lose the only poll that counts, get used to it! Maybe - maybe not. How will the Liberals react when he does win - gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob9 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 8 hours ago, ilostmypassword said: Another demonstration of ignorance. At the time I and others reported, Trump was losing and losing badly. And there are so many things that make these online polls junk. To name just one: you can vote as many times as you like. Yes - you sure showed that ignorance again. As I said, DESPITE the hillbots voting again and again, the inevitable result was that Trump won the poll. And there are many polls that also show this too. But you stick to CNN and NBC (any MSM) polls and you will see the same thing as they did in the UK before the Brexit vote - the MSM polls are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 15 hours ago, Ulysses G. said: I do. NONE. He did not know any. He did not actually meet him anyway. They were both interviewed by the same show, the interviews happened to be broadcast on the same night. They did not speak. Depends which of Trump's versions you choose to believe. Donald Trump gets a Full Flop for whether he's had a relationship to Vladimir Putin http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/aug/01/donald-trump/donald-trump-gets-full-flop-whether-hes-had-relati/ Here’s the Deal With That Putin 60 Minutes Episode Trump Mentioned http://time.com/4108198/donald-trump-60-minutes-putin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoiBiker Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 4 hours ago, Bob9 said: Yes - you sure showed that ignorance again. As I said, DESPITE the hillbots voting again and again, the inevitable result was that Trump won the poll. And there are many polls that also show this too. But you stick to CNN and NBC (any MSM) polls and you will see the same thing as they did in the UK before the Brexit vote - the MSM polls are wrong. Nope. The polls before the brexit referendum showed the race as pretty close - mostly within 2% of being tied. Right now they show Clinton an average 6% ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 4 hours ago, Bob9 said: Yes - you sure showed that ignorance again. As I said, DESPITE the hillbots voting again and again, the inevitable result was that Trump won the poll. And there are many polls that also show this too. But you stick to CNN and NBC (any MSM) polls and you will see the same thing as they did in the UK before the Brexit vote - the MSM polls are wrong. Just like in 2008 and 2012. I can still remember in 2012 when right wing mathematical ignoramuses were jumping all over Silver for using an aggregate of the polls to call the election. And you know what, he only called 50 out of 50 states correctly. But I have to confess he did much worse in 2008. He only got 49 out of 50 right. Tell me, how did your predictions for those elections turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 4 hours ago, Bob9 said: Yes - you sure showed that ignorance again. As I said, DESPITE the hillbots voting again and again, the inevitable result was that Trump won the poll. And there are many polls that also show this too. But you stick to CNN and NBC (any MSM) polls and you will see the same thing as they did in the UK before the Brexit vote - the MSM polls are wrong. I do not understand you guys. If you don't trust the likes of CNN and NBC, what news outlet do you trust?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoiBiker Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 6 minutes ago, Berkshire said: I do not understand you guys. If you don't trust the likes of CNN and NBC, what news outlet do you trust?? YouTube? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 8 minutes ago, Berkshire said: I do not understand you guys. If you don't trust the likes of CNN and NBC, what news outlet do you trust?? The voices in their heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob9 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said: Just like in 2008 and 2012. I can still remember in 2012 when right wing mathematical ignoramuses were jumping all over Silver for using an aggregate of the polls to call the election. And you know what, he only called 50 out of 50 states correctly. But I have to confess he did much worse in 2008. He only got 49 out of 50 right. Tell me, how did your predictions for those elections turn out? Everyone knew Obama would win 2008. And it was clear he had not (yet) done enough wrong to be thrown out in 2008. But I do recall another Democrat getting booted out after 1 term - a long time ago - ring any bells? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob9 said: Everyone knew Obama would win 2008. And it was clear he had not (yet) done enough wrong to be thrown out in 2008. But I do recall another Democrat getting booted out after 1 term - a long time ago - ring any bells? You don't seem to get it. It isn't about 1 poll. It's about the aggregate of polls. And there's a lot more polling done now. And a lot more sophisticated analysis. Maybe everyone did know that Obama would win in 2008, But hardly anyone called 49 out of 50 states correctly. And in 2012 the Republicans were loudly asserting that the polls were skewed to favor Obama. Nate Silver called all 50 correctly. And it turns out that the polls actually underreported Obama's margin of victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob9 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 12 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: You don't seem to get it. It isn't about 1 poll. It's about the aggregate of polls. And there's a lot more polling done now. And a lot more sophisticated analysis. Maybe everyone did know that Obama would win in 2008, But hardly anyone called 49 out of 50 states correctly. And in 2012 the Republicans were loudly asserting that the polls were skewed to favor Obama. Nate Silver called all 50 correctly. And it turns out that the polls actually underreported Obama's margin of victory. So what did Nate call in 1980? Only kidding. But did Nate predict yes to Brexit? And what did Nate predict about Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination? I recall recently reading about an academic who had a 'system' that had correctly predicted the last 12 POTUS elections and he was predicting Trump to win (just). His methodology seemed sound, although he missed one variable in his list - the number of women who will vote for Clinton because she is a female. IMO that always been Trump's weakest point - and Clinton's strongest (certainly not her record in Office). It is going to be close - and it is too early to predict IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thakkar Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 16 hours ago, Anthony5 said: So you consider your opinion more important than that of 271,623 others? Oh and the possibility to vote as many times as you like, applies to both sides. Some of those votes are mine. I went to Breitbart and voted for Trump. And I voted Often. I'll go vote again soon. Maybe I can help turn this around for Trump. Fingers crossed. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony5 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said: You don't seem to get it. It isn't about 1 poll. It's about the aggregate of polls. You don't seem to get it, because it is about one poll only, which will be held early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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