BRIT (pensioners) and EXCHANGE RATES

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

 

No

It's the time to buy gold.

It's up nearly 40% this year alone in sterling terms.

 

Hmm, only because Sterling is DOWN 18%!

[chiang mai]

28 minutes ago, DipStick said:

So if anyone has got excess foreign currency funds, is this the time to buy Sterling ?

 

What do you think?

[YeahSiam]

11 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Hmm, only because Sterling is DOWN 18%!

 

It was up substantially against sterling before Brexit.

The referendum was the icing on the cake.

11 minutes ago, zappalot said:

 

It is up in "sterling terms" just ONLY because the sterling lost a lot of value. So it will only gain value in sterling if the currency is continuing seeing lower grounds.

 

Isn't that like saying some Brits living in Thailand are "ONLY" heading home because sterling has lost a lot of value and they can't make ends meet in this country as a result?

Pretty solid reason, wouldn't you say?

Everyone and I mean "everyone" is trying to weaken their currency; Japan, EU, UK, US, even China in order to boost exports and "stimulate" their economies. There's no sign of that policy changing in the short or medium term regardless of what the academics at the Fed might have the sheep believe.

It's the primary reason for owning gold and, for me, it's done exactly what it said it would do on the tin.

[YeahSiam]

27 minutes ago, DipStick said:

Thanks but I can't buy a pint in the uk with gold, so maybe I should have said, is this the time to buy sterling for use on uk visits.

 

No but, if you time your trip shrewdly, you could exchange it for more pounds than you'd get if you handed over a bunch of greenbacks or baht

[chiang mai]

36 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

 

It was up substantially against sterling before Brexit. The referendum was the icing on the cake.

 

It was up substantially before the referendum (23 June) you say, wow, really, I never knew that!

 

Edited October 25, 2016 by chiang mai

[zappalot]

24 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

 

1. It was up substantially against sterling before Brexit.

 

2. Everyone and I mean "everyone" is trying to weaken their currency; Japan, EU, UK, US, even China in order to boost exports and "stimulate" their economies.

 

1. ok, but that had nothing to do with the UK, Gold was up in any currency by about 20% from Jan1 until the Brexit vote.

 

2. No one tries to weaken their currency, whenever anyone tried they burned their fingers. The value of a currency is determined by the value of its economy. You can not fight against that fact. I remember the times back when we still had the Deutsch Mark, when the Bundesbank intervened to devalue the Deutsch Mark. Success was ALWAYS only very short lived, for minutes, hours or if they have been lucky sometimes for some days, but that was it. Same goes for the swiss franc and so on...

[YeahSiam]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

 

It was up before the referendum (23 June) you say, wow, really, I never knew that!

 

Well now you do know, don't you?

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

Well now you do know, don't you?

 

Sorry, I omitted your word, "substantially", all fixed now!

[jadee]

I think that the drop in the value of the pound is more to do with all the quantative easing the UK did before  - printing money out of thin air - hundreds of billions of pounds was simply printed. Of course that's going to weaken the currency. It makes the money that Thailand lost through Yingluck's rice pledging scheme look like pocket change. There's no way any country can print money and not weaken their currency. I can't explain why the pound only slid after the Brexit vote - perhaps that's to do with confidence or some issue - but I don't think the vote for independence was the real underlying cause of the slide, QE was. 

[YeahSiam]

2 minutes ago, zappalot said:

 

1. ok, but that had nothing to do with the UK, Gold was up in any currency by about 20% from Jan1 until the Brexit vote.

 

2. No one tries to weaken their currency, whenever anyone tried they burned their fingers. The value of a currency is determined by the value of its economy. You can not fight against that fact. I remember the times back when we still had the Deutsch Mark, when the Bundesbank intervened to devalue the Deutsch Mark. Success was ALWAYS only very short lived, for minutes, hours or if they have been lucky sometimes for some days, but that was it. Same goes for the swiss franc and so on...

 

1. I never said it had anything to do with the UK

 

2. What do you think the Bank of Japan is doing? The ECB? The Bank of England? They're trying to increase the base money supply with quantitative easing in the hope it will kick start economic activity.

     A not-entirely-unwanted side effect of that policy is the weakening of their currencies.

[HauptmannUK]

As someone who works in the area of international trade (mainly in the auto and aerospace sectors) I think that the UK is in for a very rude shock over the next couple of years.  The economy is NOT strong - high current account deficit and high levels of public and private debt.  I understand we have now slipped back behind France to become 6th largest economy, rather than 5th.  If one looks at GDP per head then we are around 24th/25th in the world (well behind countries such as Belgium).  Pensions and benefits are relatively poor by European standards.

What really upsets me, as someone working in the Technology sector, is how we have slipped behind in Science and Engineering. Countries like France and Germany have surged ahead (think automotive and aerospace - Ariane, Airbus, TGV,  nuclear) - how sad that the country that built the world's first commercial nuclear power station (Calder Hall, in 1956) now has to go cap-in-hand to the French and Chinese to get Hinkley Point built.  Technology R&D in the UK has benefitted hugely from EU funding (they would fund what the UK governement wouldn't).

 

In my company (US owned and HQ) we have subsidiary operations in UK, France, Germany and China.  Post referendum we are already making 20% of our UK workforce voluntarily redundant (80 people).  The UK operation will surely close if UK leaves the European Single Market.  Jobs will surely move to France and Germany (where labour costs are higher, but more than compensated for by much greater productivity thanks to better infrastructure).

The problem with the fallling pound is that most of what we manufacture relies on imported materials and the equipment that we use is also imported (Germany or Japanese) - so the only competitive advantage from devaluation is the relative reduction in labour costs.  The EEF did a survery of exporters about a week ago and about half said that costs would rise overall, only about 30% said that costs would fall - so devaulation is not going to be of much benefit to manufacturing (although tourism will likely be a different story).

The GBP has fallen because confidence in the UK economy is much diminished.  All this nonsense about the GBP being previously 'overvalued' is laughable.

 

Less widely reported than Brexit are some of Mrs May's other ideas for the economy, education etc - which are less than impressive IMHO and which she has absolutely no mandate for.  She was a poor performer in the Home Office (tough talking at Conservative Conference, but always failing to deliver). She cut 20000 police officers and cut border force funding leading to a 30% reduction in border force staffing at Dover - exactly the wrong thing to do.  She was chosen because she was the only palatible candidate from a dire selection.  I think she is remainly tight-lipped about Brexit because she doesn't know what to do next - they are not revealing the UK's 'negotiating position' because there isn't one as yet!

Some of the ideas are frankly bonkers.  One proposal that has come across my desk is that the UK automotive and aerospace sectors would have access to 'bonded warehouses' within the UK which would be part of the Single Market ! This is a serious suggestion from government - you really couldn't make it up.

We may have a bright future in five years' time - but that will not be much good to us if large sections of the economy have collapsed in the intervening period.

 

There is a lot about the EU that I don't like. Unrestricted EU immigration was a bad idea IMHO,. but I am a great believer in the 'least worst option' - the only thing that is worse than staying in the EU is leaving it.  No doubt that the GBP will sink to partity with the Euro, or even lower, once withdrawl from the single market it confirmed.  And I suspect reports of the Euro's impeding demise are somewhat premature.

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

 

1. I never said it had anything to do with the UK

 

2. What do you think the Bank of Japan is doing? The ECB? The Bank of England? They're trying to increase the base money supply with quantitative easing in the hope it will kick start economic activity.

     A not-entirely-unwanted side effect of that policy is the weakening of their currencies.

"A not-entirely-unwanted side effect of that policy is the weakening of their currencies", against each other results in a zero sum game hence the value of gold in any denomination remains broadly static.

[YeahSiam]

2 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

"A not-entirely-unwanted side effect of that policy is the weakening of their currencies", against each other results in a zero sum game hence the value of gold in any denomination remains broadly static.

 

Tell me then, is there no benefit to the 40% more GBP I can exchange my gold and silver for?

Last time I checked, the price of food, fuel, rent, school fees etc in the UK hadn't increased by 40% this year but, I dunno, I might be wrong

[chiang mai]

5 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

 

Tell me then, is there no benefit to the 40% more GBP I can exchange my gold and silver for?

Last time I checked, the price of food, fuel, rent, school fees etc in the UK hadn't increased by 40% this year but, I dunno, I might be wrong

 

We've already established that it's not 40% and that much of that was down to the devaluation!

 

We've also established that you've only realised a paper profit (maybe) thus far and until you cash in, there is zero real profit - a paper millionaire in dollars, in reality only in fractions of a cent.

[YeahSiam]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

 

We've already established that it's not 40% and that much of that was down to the devaluation!

 

We've also established that you've only realised a paper profit (maybe) thus far and until you cash in, there is zero real profit - a paper millionaire in dollars, in reality only in fractions of a cent.

 

http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/forex/^XAUGBP

 

Scroll down to "Historical Highs & Lows"

Then down to "Year to date"

Come back and tell me what it says.

 

If you're going to dispute facts, at least have something more than waffle to back it up.

 

[chiang mai]

Just now, YeahSiam said:

 

http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/forex/^XAUGBP

 

Scroll down to "Historical Highs & Lows"

Then down to "Year to date"

Come back and tell me what it says.

 

If you're going to dispute facts, at least have something more than waffle to back it up.

 

 

Without even clicking on your link: best I can figure without spending any real time on it is that you might just be back at 2010 prices, assuming you bought before then. If you bought after that, I'm sorry!!

 

 

[YeahSiam]

2 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Without even clicking on your link: best I can figure without spending any real time on it is that you might just be back at 2010 prices, assuming you bought before then. If you bought after that, I'm sorry!!

 

 

 

Actually, I bought in 2007.

I believe the British Pound was trading at $2.11 on the day I bought.

Anyway, look, I don't really care what you think.

This isn't a discussion about the merits of gold versus fiat.

Someone asked what would be the best course of action for someone with a surfeit of foreign currency. I gave my opinion. You don't agree? Fine. that's your prerogative.

I'll sit here 40% up and counting and you can sit there nitpicking but suffice it to say that as a Brit myself, I'm definitely not worried about sterling's depreciation.

I think that's a half-decent position to be in.

[mercman24]

i think 33 to the pound is a bit irrelavent (post 16) as 30 years ago THAILAND was as cheap as chips, doesn't compare with todays THAILAND

[Seizetheday]

1 hour ago, YeahSiam said:

 

You've been drinking too much of the Kool-aid

The UK economy is far, FAR from "sound".

Like every other major Western economy with, perhaps, the exception of Germany, Britain is awash with debt; household and public sector.

Manufacturing accounts for less than 12% of GDP and, more worryingly, its service economy is over-dependent on a City of London that's shown itself to be particularly vulnerable to financial shocks.

Much of the country's wealth is directly linked to real estate market lunacy and, despite the Bank of England's efforts to keep the plates spinning, Armageddon is inevitable.

The British economy is in better state than Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and probably France. One of the main reasons the GBP went down so much was the surprise of Brexit. Carney doesn't seem too concerned about the decrease as the long term fundamentals of the GBP are much better than the Euro.

[mercman24]

WOULD just like to say (as i started this post) what an interesting read for a change, by some people that know a darn sight more than me. ta.

[YeahSiam]

2 minutes ago, Seizetheday said:

The British economy is in better state than Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and probably France. One of the main reasons the GBP went down so much was the surprise of Brexit. Carney doesn't seem too concerned about the decrease as the long term fundamentals of the GBP are much better than the Euro.

 

That's a little like taking pride in having the best house in a really crap neighbourhood.

The pound is suffering from a crisis of confidence based on justified fears that Britain won't be able to negotiate a sweet trade deal with the EU.

[Mansell]

1 hour ago, HauptmannUK said:

As someone who works in the area of international trade (mainly in the auto and aerospace sectors) I think that the UK is in for a very rude shock over the next couple of years.  The economy is NOT strong - high current account deficit and high levels of public and private debt.  I understand we have now slipped back behind France to become 6th largest economy, rather than 5th.  If one looks at GDP per head then we are around 24th/25th in the world (well behind countries such as Belgium).  Pensions and benefits are relatively poor by European standards.

What really upsets me, as someone working in the Technology sector, is how we have slipped behind in Science and Engineering. Countries like France and Germany have surged ahead (think automotive and aerospace - Ariane, Airbus, TGV,  nuclear) - how sad that the country that built the world's first commercial nuclear power station (Calder Hall, in 1956) now has to go cap-in-hand to the French and Chinese to get Hinkley Point built.  Technology R&D in the UK has benefitted hugely from EU funding (they would fund what the UK governement wouldn't).

 

In my company (US owned and HQ) we have subsidiary operations in UK, France, Germany and China.  Post referendum we are already making 20% of our UK workforce voluntarily redundant (80 people).  The UK operation will surely close if UK leaves the European Single Market.  Jobs will surely move to France and Germany (where labour costs are higher, but more than compensated for by much greater productivity thanks to better infrastructure).

The problem with the fallling pound is that most of what we manufacture relies on imported materials and the equipment that we use is also imported (Germany or Japanese) - so the only competitive advantage from devaluation is the relative reduction in labour costs.  The EEF did a survery of exporters about a week ago and about half said that costs would rise overall, only about 30% said that costs would fall - so devaulation is not going to be of much benefit to manufacturing (although tourism will likely be a different story).

The GBP has fallen because confidence in the UK economy is much diminished.  All this nonsense about the GBP being previously 'overvalued' is laughable.

 

Less widely reported than Brexit are some of Mrs May's other ideas for the economy, education etc - which are less than impressive IMHO and which she has absolutely no mandate for.  She was a poor performer in the Home Office (tough talking at Conservative Conference, but always failing to deliver). She cut 20000 police officers and cut border force funding leading to a 30% reduction in border force staffing at Dover - exactly the wrong thing to do.  She was chosen because she was the only palatible candidate from a dire selection.  I think she is remainly tight-lipped about Brexit because she doesn't know what to do next - they are not revealing the UK's 'negotiating position' because there isn't one as yet!

Some of the ideas are frankly bonkers.  One proposal that has come across my desk is that the UK automotive and aerospace sectors would have access to 'bonded warehouses' within the UK which would be part of the Single Market ! This is a serious suggestion from government - you really couldn't make it up.

We may have a bright future in five years' time - but that will not be much good to us if large sections of the economy have collapsed in the intervening period.

 

There is a lot about the EU that I don't like. Unrestricted EU immigration was a bad idea IMHO,. but I am a great believer in the 'least worst option' - the only thing that is worse than staying in the EU is leaving it.  No doubt that the GBP will sink to partity with the Euro, or even lower, once withdrawl from the single market it confirmed.  And I suspect reports of the Euro's impeding demise are somewhat premature.

Thanks for your coherent write up of the situation from your perspective. Very good info for the average person.

[DipStick]

3 hours ago, DipStick said:

Thanks but I can't buy a pint in the uk with gold, so maybe I should have said, is this the time to buy sterling for use on uk visits.

Look harder people, I asked a very simple question. Should I buy sterling now from my five different currency accounts.. I do not want to hear buy gold, buy wxhorese, invest in Thai rice.. Please if you cannot answer shut the <deleted> up. Stop this posturing that is ruining this forum , which is almost dead 

[Ulic]

No matter how much it falls it will not be as bad as the Russians have endured. The UK has just joined Canada and Australia in currency exchange rate misery. Just try to be careful tighten the belt and be ready for your plan 'B'.   

[berybert]

Somme well though out comments by people on here.

Unlike when the Rubble crashed a couple of years ago. Then all we heard was haha good, at least we get rid of the Russians.

What goes around comes around. I wonder if the Russians are celebrating as much as the Brits did.

[evadgib]

What nationality are you?

[berybert]

30 minutes ago, evadgib said:

What nationality are you?

English.

[Estrada]

14 hours ago, partington said:

Poor people tend to vote to increase their own poverty: I don't know why this is.

 

 I would be surprised if the majority, 80-90%, of those being forced to leave because of the low exchange rate didn't actually vote for Brexit and bring about their own demise.

 

Those not on the edge of survival mostly voted remain I think.  

It seems that this is the case. I found the majority of my British friends here, said they were voting for Brexit and I warned that the GB Pound would fall by 20%. They said that they were still voting for Brexit and that the fall in the GBP would just last 1 to 3 weeks then it would recover. Very few of these friends now admit to having voted for Brexit as, like myself, are losing 24% since the proposal to hold the Brexit referendum was made. Only one Brexiteer now admits to the severe financial fall out of Brexit, but he says it is "Worth it to avoid Sharia Law!" The problem is going to get worse, as the pound has at least another 10% to fall if article 50 is invoked.

[chiang mai]

7 hours ago, DipStick said:

Look harder people, I asked a very simple question. Should I buy sterling now from my five different currency accounts.. I do not want to hear buy gold, buy wxhorese, invest in Thai rice.. Please if you cannot answer shut the <deleted> up. Stop this posturing that is ruining this forum , which is almost dead 

 

Being rude and vulgar with posters is not going to help your cause, after all, it's not your thread, is it!

 

You asked the question whether now is the time to buy GBP using foreign currency, this for use during a trip to the UK, my answer is this:

 

If you need to buy Sterling because the trip is imminent then you have no choice but to buy it. But if you can wait until say after March next year there's a good chance you may get an even better rate.

 

But you also said you were using foreign currency, question is which one? If it's a US Dollar based currency then what I wrote above is still true. If however it's a currency that largely ignores USD movements  there's a chance the exchange rate may get worse rather than better,

[Laughing Gravy]

2 hours ago, Estrada said:

It seems that this is the case. I found the majority of my British friends here, said they were voting for Brexit and I warned that the GB Pound would fall by 20%. They said that they were still voting for Brexit and that the fall in the GBP would just last 1 to 3 weeks then it would recover. Very few of these friends now admit to having voted for Brexit as, like myself, are losing 24% since the proposal to hold the Brexit referendum was made. Only one Brexiteer now admits to the severe financial fall out of Brexit, but he says it is "Worth it to avoid Sharia Law!" The problem is going to get worse, as the pound has at least another 10% to fall if article 50 is invoked.

I voted for Brexit and so did my friends here,. I would still do it and my friends would too.. I am not your friend ( I don't know you that's all) but I would agree with your one Brexiteer friend, along with many other issues. If leaving an organization like the EU is the cause of the pounds dropping (I don't believe it is just that) then in the long run, the way the ' EU club' is going, it is better to get out now.