Thai Stock Exchange Suspends Trading After Index Dives

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

Lets hope the 'powers that be' don't quietly tell their brokers to start buying shortly before they clarify/amend the original announcement.

Lots of insider trading opportunities here for those in-the-know.

[Jai Dee]

SET may fall below 600 points

A leading broker predicts Tuesday that the Stock Exchange of Thailand may fall below the 600 points.

Pitthaya Iamkhong-ek, vice president of Bangkok First Investment and Trust, said there was a high chance that the SET index could fall below the 600-point barrier in one or two months because of the central bank's baht curbing measures.

Source: The Nation - 19 December 2006

[Phil Conners]

I think anyone putting money in SET should have their head examined. Everyone know how things are done here. Only those with the right connection have a chance, the rest will lose their shirt.

[Jai Dee]

Unusual foreign capital inflow risk: Thai deputy PM

Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras has conceded that the continuing foreign capital inflows from abroad, unabated at present, are unusual and that most flowed into Thailand purely for speculation, Thai News Agency (TNA) reported Tuesday.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is quite aware, having gathered data, and that it has assessed the situation and the provenance of the unusual capital movements, Kosit was quoted by the state-run News Agency as saying.

However, the central bank needed more time to respond appropriately with additional measures to supervise the baht's movement to ensure it is not overly volatile.

He admitted all parties concerned will face losses from further BoT measures to curb the baht fluctuation.

"Many have reacted with concern to the news that the central bank will levy a tax on a large amount of the funds flowing into the country as part of its effort to curb a massive influx of capital here," the Deputy Prime Minister said.

Kosit said he believed the central bank would find the best approach to prevent the baht's volatility because it had the prime duty to oversee the currency movement to ensure its stability.

The government was aware of great difficulties exporters are experiencing but it needs to deal cautiously with the situation, he added.

Source: Xinhua - 19 December 2006

[Jai Dee]

SET Index

SET100 Index

SET50 Index

mai Index

Edited December 19, 2006 by Jai Dee
Graph titles added

[stickman]

SET may fall below 600 points

A leading broker predicts Tuesday that the Stock Exchange of Thailand may fall below the 600 points.

Pitthaya Iamkhong-ek, vice president of Bangkok First Investment and Trust, said there was a high chance that the SET index could fall below the 600-point barrier in one or two months because of the central bank's baht curbing measures.

Source: The Nation - 19 December 2006

One or two months? There is a chance that it could fall below 600 today...it is not that far north of 600 right now, about 610 at this point in time I believe.

[Jai Dee]

MAI stock movements link

[Jai Dee]

Korn urges BOT to immediately reverse measures

Key Democrat Party member Korn Chatikavanij urged the Bank of Thailand to immediately reverse the recently-introduced measure to intervene the currency, saying that it would cause the damages to the capital market for years. Today, Thai share prices plunged by 10 per cent at 11:30 am after the central bank took the most stringent measures since the 1997 Asian financial crisis to curb the baht's rise.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand implemented the circuit breaker measure for the first time in history to deal with the drop by suspending the trading for 30 minutes at 11:30 hours.

At 11:30, the SET nose-dived to 656.49, the lowest point of the day so far. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index nosedived 64.62 points or 8.85 per cent to 665.93 in the first minutes of trading and the blue-chip SET 50 index fell 53.10 points to 458.90.

Korn said: "The measure causes the damage to the capital market. The Bank of Thailand should immediately reverse this policy, because no investors who will want to spend Bt100 just to have Bt30 withheld. And if they will get only Bt90 if they want to remit the money in less than one year."

Source: The Nation - 19 December 2006

[Jai Dee]

Foreign investors may have gained about 20 per cent

A Thai broker said foreign investors in the Stock of Exchange of Thailand might have gained about 20 per cent profits from unloading their shares Tuesday morning.

Ekpitthaya Iamkhong-ek, vice president of Bangkok First Investment and Trust, said most foreign investors came in to invest in SET when baht was still about Bt42 per US dollar and now the baht had appreciated by 15 to 20 per cent.

As a result, the investors would earn profit from the baht appreciation plus profits from the stock gains.

Source: The Nation - 19 December 2006

[Old Man River]

Lets hope the 'powers that be' don't quietly tell their brokers to start buying shortly before they clarify/amend the original announcement.

Lots of insider trading opportunities here for those in-the-know.

Good point.

Depending on one's view and ability to hold, a lot of opportunities anyway. It is the "blue chips" (such as they are) that are being dumped by the foreign investors.

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

It bottomed at 587 and has sinced bounced back.

I presume the fall has triggered margin calls among local speculators. Still, someone who has the right info is going to make a bob or two on all this - as is customarily the case in the Thai stock market.

Edited December 19, 2006 by Barney_the_Dinosaur

[Jai Dee]

Stock market loses Bt500 billion in value : SEC

Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala, secretary general of the Securities and Exchange Commission, said that the Bank of Thailand's new measure has reduced the SET's market capitalisation by as large as Bt500 billion.

He said foreign investors are concerning that the central bank may introduce more measures. However, he warned them to wait and consider well the consequence before shifting their capital out of the country. Otherwise, they may lose investment opportunity.

Teerana Bhongmakapat, an economist at Chulalongkorn University, urged the central bank to cut reserve requirement of 30 per cent on capital inflows to around 3 to 5 per cent to lessen the drastic measure.

If investors pull back their money within three or six months, they would lose the reserves. If they get money back within a year, they would get half of the reserves, he said.

He said the 30 per cent reserve was too severe and it could adversely impact on both shortterm and longterm capital flow.

He, however, said the central bank move in the right direction as it has try to introduce prudential management of macroeconomy which is under threat from shortterm capital flows.

"The challenge is how the central bank could minimise the cost , the side affect coming along with central bank's goal to curb rising baht," he added.

At 12.12 pm, the SET index fell further by 13.74 per cent or 100.37 points to 630.18.

Key Democrat Party member Korn Chatikavanij urged the Bank of Thailand to immediately reverse the recentlyintroduced measure to intervene the currency, saying that it would cause the damages to the capital market for years. Today, Thai share prices plunged by 10 per cent at 11:30 am after the central bank took the most stringent measures since the 1997 Asian financial crisis to curb the baht's rise.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand implemented the circuit breaker measure for the first time in history to deal with the drop by suspending the trading for 30 minutes at 11:30 hours.

At 11:30, the SET nosedived to 656.49, the lowest point of the day so far. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index nosedived 64.62 points or 8.85 per cent to 665.93 in the first minutes of trading and the bluechip SET 50 index fell 53.10 points to 458.90.

Korn said: "The measure causes the damage to the capital market. The Bank of Thailand should immediately reverse this policy, because no investors who will want to spend Bt100 just to have Bt30 withheld. And if they will get only Bt90 if they want to remit the money in less than one year."

Starting from Tuesday, financial institutions would be required to withhold 30 per cent of foreign currencies bought or exchanged against the baht, except those related to exports, said BOT governor Tarisa Watanagase.

Korn said that the damage caused by the measures could be overwhelming. Besides, there's rule from the financial institutions that they cannot invest in countries with capital control. He said the capital market in Chile for instance was damaged by 10 years while Malaysia was damaged by 3 to 4 years.

He said Bank of Thailand should implement the separate measures to deal with money and financial capital markets. Speculators are mostly in the bond markets. Bank of Thailand should separate the measurement in money and capital markets speculators are mostly bond market.

Source: The Nation - 19 December 2006

[corkscrew]

Will pension income to retirees in Thailand from their home countries be subject to the witholding?

If you receive more than $20,000 in monthly pension payment, please adopt me!

In the first post in this thread, it says "20,000 usd for a year", not in a month. If that is accurate, I think $20K per year will affect a lot of people. However I don't really expect this new measure will remain in place for long. But who knows, after all it is Thailand.

The sentence read "Since the opening, investors dumped shares after the Bank of Thailand late last night ordered banks to lock up 30 pct of any new foreign currency deposits above 20,000 usd for a year in a bid to curb the baht's rise." It says the deposits above 20k will be held for a year. Not that you can only bring in 20k per year.

[OneeyedJohn]

Its currently down 22.5%

This is like 10 years ago I was in Bangkok and the feeling was the same.

If the English Market. went down 20 per cent in day everyone will say England is in trouble at least. I now known all of you are lossing the little money you have. I have never meet a rich person who invested in the SET.

I think you all of you dreamers are going to lose big.

Maybe you should buy more now

You are indeed a very fortunate person , for from that lofty position where

you sneer at so many, I'm surprised you don't suffer from vertigo.

You may well one day be smirking from the other side of your face, God help you

[My Friend Same]

This is a good measure to prevent the George Soros' of the world from controlling the Thai currency as what happened in 1997. I applaud this move. I think that nibbling on Thai stocks at this lower level would be a good move. I may well buy in to a little of the "TTF" thai etf fund that trades under that symbol on the NYSE

Edited December 19, 2006 by My Friend Same

[My Friend Same]

The Baht is only down slightly more than 1% at this point from the 9 year high near 35 to the buck. Right now it is trading at 35.45 and strengthening

[Samuian]

Well, well, well comes 1997/8 to mind... and some big boy with a well packed wallet who happened to be the ex-ceo of this country - he has the financial leverage to hurt them boys badly.

How better to shake a government when you hurt the economy they are so eager to stabelize?

And the ex-ceo got many golfing friends in high places too!! What is to them 200 Mill.?

[thedude]

this is a great time to be buying stocks, especially blue chips and sector performers. i been picking up stocks all day.

[My Friend Same]

If thedude says you can buy blue chippers then you outta get your shovel out and scoop some up

[corkscrew]

Using your foreign charge card will help avoid the 30% rule. But, I think that there will be some exemption for foreign money transfer....perhaps the $20,000 one.

[dgoz]

this is a great time to be buying stocks, especially blue chips and sector performers. i been picking up stocks all day.

True the stocks may come back a little but your gains will be negated by the falling baht (which, believe me, will happen over the next week or two).

The smart play would be to go short the baht against the euro.

Check back in January and see how right I am.

[Noodles]

Thai baht is going north against the GBP at the min.

Smart Currency Exchange

[DFCarlson]

$US20,000 plus equals 800,000 Baht equals required funds for a "retirement visa".

Does this now mean new applicants need to transfer around $US30,000 ( 30% withheld) to achieve the Immigration Depts requirements??????

Look at number three on this notice. I would not worry too much as this will be reversed within a short period.

They are after people that are doing large speculation and turning around large sums in seconds. They will surely try to avoid shooting themselves in the foot a second time with the same bullet.

As long as this continues, the US$20,000 limit is per transaction. Just split up your 800,000 baht equivalent into two transfers, and make sure that neither one exceeds the US$20,000 limit.

[suiging]

The Thai's love their country, they love their King and when they feel an institution such as their economy is under threat they take action.

The action may not always be correct, but at least they have a go !!!!

[sriracha john]

Stock market loses Bt500 billion in value : SEC

"Please call an ambulance, there is a bloodbath," a dealer at a domestic brokerage said.

"Foreign players seem to be selling all maturities today, but I think it's only the first round. There is a lot of money already in the Thai markets. If they're pulling out, we're dead," he said.

- CNN

Edited December 19, 2006 by sriracha john

[BigFun]

HMMMM brilliant....wow for the Thai govt and all their advisors on financial matters....1 + 1 = 2! Sorry, what did you expect? I dont want to see you fail, just a fair playing field!! What country can survive in a vacuum in the global economy? We all need cross border transactions these days and as for subsistence economy, fair play but why not re-name it "moderation" or "not on the never-never" economy!

[lannarebirth]

Stock market loses Bt500 billion in value : SEC

"Please call an ambulance, there is a bloodbath," a dealer at a domestic brokerage said.

"Foreign players seem to be selling all maturities today, but I think it's only the first round. There is a lot of money already in the Thai markets. If they're pulling out, we're dead," he said.

- CNN

I'm not so sure about the specifics, but in general I applaud this move by the government. Todays market reaction shows they were correct in that there's a lot of money in Thailand here only to exploit markets. These globalist don't give a shit about the Thai economy or the Thai people. They're quick buck artists. Good riddance.

[j_cheung]

Stock market loses Bt500 billion in value : SEC

"Please call an ambulance, there is a bloodbath," a dealer at a domestic brokerage said.

"Foreign players seem to be selling all maturities today, but I think it's only the first round. There is a lot of money already in the Thai markets. If they're pulling out, we're dead," he said.

- CNN

Hmm, didn't a certain legendary investor of Jewish descent once quipped: "The best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets."

[Finansjohan]

Since the opening, investors dumped shares after the Bank of Thailand late last night ordered banks to lock up 30 pct of any new foreign currency deposits above 20,000 usd for a year in a bid to curb the baht's rise.

So, people making wire transfers of less than USD 20000 to Thailand for whatever purpose will not be affected by the new rule? If the big investors start dividing up big transfers into many small, there is no effect from the new rules?

[midas]

SET may fall below 600 points

A leading broker predicts Tuesday that the Stock Exchange of Thailand may fall below the 600 points.

Pitthaya Iamkhong-ek, vice president of Bangkok First Investment and Trust, said there was a high chance that the SET index could fall below the 600-point barrier in one or two months because of the central bank's baht curbing measures.

Source: The Nation - 19 December 2006

One or two months? There is a chance that it could fall below 600 today...it is not that far north of 600 right now, about 610 at this point in time I believe.

It was at 545 at 3.30 pm today - so is this a dead cat bounce or something better than that ?