topfield Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 In the last hour the baht which has been over the 36 level since the emergency measures suddenly rose like a rocket in the last hour (its now 9pm 27 December) and back in the 35's and rising. A huge order for several hundred million dollars worth of baht must have been executed as the Stock market was flat today and trading ended for the day. It seems all the measures taken by Tarisa (BOT Governor )and M.Tevagun ( Finance Minister ) last week were all for nothing. The Thai economy ...is now in peril with many exporting companies likely to be wiped out/ move to China. The government is now also in trouble as M. Tevagun was already under heavy pressure to resign. The only questions now are 1. Will further measures now be taken..ie a severe cut in interest rates 2. Will the BOT come into the market tonight and sell baht in quantity to bring down its value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cclub75 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 The only questions now are 1. Will further measures now be taken..ie a severe cut in interest rates 2. Will the BOT come into the market tonight and sell baht in quantity to bring down its value Even if I share your extreme joy (miss Tarisa will sooner or later shut her big mouth), don't forget that markets are quiet between christmas and new year. So movement, down or up, can be more violent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topfield Posted December 28, 2006 Author Share Posted December 28, 2006 In the last hour the baht which has been over the 36 level since the emergency measures suddenly rose like a rocket in the last hour (its now 9pm 27 December) and back in the 35's and rising.A huge order for several hundred million dollars worth of baht must have been executed as the Stock market was flat today and trading ended for the day. It seems all the measures taken by Tarisa (BOT Governor )and M.Tevagun ( Finance Minister ) last week were all for nothing. The Thai economy ...is now in peril with many exporting companies likely to be wiped out/ move to China. The government is now also in trouble as M. Tevagun was already under heavy pressure to resign. The only questions now are 1. Will further measures now be taken..ie a severe cut in interest rates 2. Will the BOT come into the market tonight and sell baht in quantity to bring down its value UPDATE FROM TOPFIELD Seems I was right ! Tarisa decided to take action and opted for 2 above . The BBC minute by minute chart shows the baht returning to its previous rate of yesterday's Bangkok close of 36.30 at around 7.30 this morning Thai time when the BOT officials arrived at their desks. Decision to sell baht probably taken over the phone yesterday evening in a worried conversation between K.Tarisa and Morm Tevagun PS note to cclub 75 : you are quite wrong in thinking I was overjoyed by the strength of the baht ! Like most expats in Thailand our benefit comes with a weakening of the baht . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiksilva Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 Can we expect a cut interest rates soon? Any predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidbkk Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 any explanation for the big swings back and forth for the GBP against the THB this week? eg yahoo 1 day chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbaldwin Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 Some provided seem to be having data problems. The BBC shows wide swings daily but Bloomberg quotes seem much more stable. Also trading is very light over the Christmas period so one large order will have a much larger impact on price than when there is normal trading volumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man River Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 Can we expect a cut interest rates soon? Any predictions? Probably not. If so, it would only be to placate the politicos who think that interest rates are the end all for currency movements. All things being equal, interest rate movements due impact currency values, but when speculators are involved it is an artificial situation and normal financial tools are much less effective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidbkk Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 Some provided seem to be having data problems. The BBC shows wide swings daily but Bloomberg quotes seem much more stable. Also trading is very light over the Christmas period so one large order will have a much larger impact on price than when there is normal trading volumes ok, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topfield Posted December 28, 2006 Author Share Posted December 28, 2006 Some provided seem to be having data problems. The BBC shows wide swings daily but Bloomberg quotes seem much more stable. Also trading is very light over the Christmas period so one large order will have a much larger impact on price than when there is normal trading volumes ok, thank you Yes, huge swings....it's only that Bloomberg updates at less regular intervals hence the misapprehension Thus Bloomberg will show 36.20 then half an hour later 35.80. What you are not aware of is that, in that half hour period the rate has swung wildly up and down!! Clearly the BOT is intervening heavily as the rate has swung as per above at least three times today while watching on the streaming rate chart. The pound for example has swung 69.50 and 70 .50 . One wonders how the change offices cope. These swings last occured during the baht crises of 97/98 when there could be two percent movements while one watched the screen. This time only one percent movements ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidbkk Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 Some provided seem to be having data problems. The BBC shows wide swings daily but Bloomberg quotes seem much more stable. Also trading is very light over the Christmas period so one large order will have a much larger impact on price than when there is normal trading volumes ok, thank you Yes, huge swings....it's only that Bloomberg updates at less regular intervals hence the misapprehension Thus Bloomberg will show 36.20 then half an hour later 35.80. What you are not aware of is that, in that half hour period the rate has swung wildly up and down!! Clearly the BOT is intervening heavily as the rate has swung as per above at least three times today while watching on the streaming rate chart. The pound for example has swung 69.50 and 70 .50 . One wonders how the change offices cope. These swings last occured during the baht crises of 97/98 when there could be two percent movements while one watched the screen. This time only one percent movements ! yes, that yahoo chart seems to show a peak of almost 71, say 70.9 and a low of around 69.3, maybe 3 hours later, with a few wild swings in between those points and afterwards. It does look like a bit of a battle going on with someone tyring to force the currency one way and then intervention to bring it back. Something doesnt look quite right at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cclub75 Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 35.28 / 40 ! "Encore un effort" and tomorrow, yes, we will be exactly back at square one (1 USD = 35 THB). Yesterday, United Arab Emirates said that it will convert 8 % of its USD reserve in.. Euros... before september. They have started already. That's a small glimpse on the big picture. That's the trend for the following year. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home And our dear "doctor" Tarisa can't do nothing about it. But because they live in an another dimension, and if we reach 35 after new year, they could make other crazy moves, followed by Z-turns, X-turns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brahmburgers Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 A stronger baht should give us lower gas prices, eh?! Ha ha, chortle, snicker - about as likely as fat cats giving the little guy a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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