Europe Has Six Weeks of Jet Fuel Left, Energy Agency Warns

Europe could face significant pressure on aviation fuel supplies within weeks if disruptions to Middle Eastern exports continue, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

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The agency warned that current stockpiles of jet fuel across Europe may last for only about six weeks under present conditions, raising the prospect of flight cancellations if replacement supplies cannot be secured quickly.

The warning comes after the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route for fuel exports from the Gulf — has remained effectively closed for more than six weeks following tensions linked to US and Israeli military action against Iran.

Gulf Disruption Strains Aviation Fuel Market

The IEA said the closure of the vital shipping corridor has severely disrupted the global aviation fuel market. Exports from the Gulf region represent the largest single source of jet fuel traded worldwide.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency, told the Associated Press that European inventories could reach a critical point by June unless the region can replace at least half of its lost Middle Eastern imports.

The organisation’s latest monthly oil market report said the disruption had significantly complicated global fuel flows. It noted that refining centres in countries such as South Korea, India and China also rely heavily on crude oil imports from the Middle East, limiting their ability to compensate for the shortfall.

As a result, the agency said the situation had “thrown a proverbial wrench” into aviation fuel supply chains.

Efforts to Replace Lost Imports

European countries have been trying to secure alternative supplies as the disruption continues.

Analysts say additional shipments are arriving from the United States and Nigeria, and the IEA reported a sharp increase in US jet fuel exports in recent weeks.

However, the agency warned that even if all of those shipments were redirected to Europe, they would replace only slightly more than half of the fuel typically imported from the Middle East.

The report outlined several possible outcomes. If Europe cannot replace at least half of its lost imports, fuel shortages could begin to appear at certain airports, potentially forcing airlines to cancel flights and reduce demand.

Even if three-quarters of the missing supply can be replaced, shortages could still occur later in the summer, possibly by August.

Airlines Monitor Risks Ahead of Summer Travel

Airlines and governments say they are closely monitoring the situation but stress that major disruptions have not yet occurred.

The UK government said it was working with airlines and fuel suppliers to ensure travel and business activity could continue. Officials said British carriers had not yet reported supply problems.

Airlines UK, which represents the country’s airline industry, said it was discussing possible contingency measures with the government in case the situation worsens. These could include regulatory adjustments intended to protect passengers and maintain the competitiveness of the aviation sector.

Industry analysts warn that even if shipments from the Gulf resume soon, the effects of the disruption could still be felt during the peak summer travel season.

Amaar Khan, who oversees European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, said shortages in some regions were becoming increasingly likely. Larger hubs such as London Heathrow would likely receive priority supplies, he said, while smaller airports could face tighter availability.

Fuel Prices Surge Amid Supply Concerns

The disruption has already pushed aviation fuel prices sharply higher.

Benchmark European jet fuel prices reached a record $1,838 per tonne in early April, more than double the roughly $831 per tonne recorded before the conflict began.

Fuel typically accounts for between 20% and 40% of airlines’ operating costs, meaning sustained price increases can quickly affect profitability.

The European Commission said earlier this week that there was currently no evidence of fuel shortages across the European Union, although officials acknowledged that supply pressures could develop in the coming weeks.

Airlines have already begun adjusting operations. Dutch carrier KLM said it plans to cancel about 160 European flights in the coming month due to higher fuel costs, though it said the cuts represent less than 1% of its regional schedule and are not linked to fuel shortages.

Low-cost airline EasyJet also reported an additional £25m in fuel expenses in March, despite having secured much of its fuel in advance through hedging agreements.

Industry Calls for Policy Clarity

Aviation groups have urged European authorities to prepare for potential disruption.

Airlines for Europe has asked the European Union to clarify passenger compensation rules so that cancellations caused by fuel shortages or airspace closures linked to the conflict are classified as “extraordinary circumstances”.

Such a designation would exempt airlines from paying compensation in those situations.

Meanwhile, Airports Council International Europe warned the European Commission last week that jet fuel shortages could emerge if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several more weeks.

EU officials said energy coordination groups are meeting weekly and that further measures could be announced by the European Commission president next week.

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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 17 April 2026