A growing number of people in Australia believe the country could face a foreign military attack within the next five years, according to new research from the Australian National University.
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The study found that 45% of respondents consider such an attack likely or possible within that timeframe, reflecting increasing concern over national security. Overall, about two-thirds of those surveyed in 2026 said they were worried about security threats.
The research, conducted between November 2024 and February 2026, also showed a sharp rise in concern among younger Australians. More than half of those aged 18 to 24 reported being worried about national security, up significantly from just over one-fifth in late 2024.
Broad Range of Threats Identified
Respondents highlighted a wide range of perceived risks, including cyber and AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, supply chain disruptions and climate-related impacts. More than 85% said such threats were likely to materialise by the end of the decade.
Australia’s potential involvement in overseas conflicts was also a major concern. Nearly seven in ten respondents surveyed in mid-2025 said they believed this was likely within five years.
While an attack on Australian soil ranked lowest in terms of likelihood, it was still considered the most serious scenario in terms of consequences. Many respondents said such an event would have major or even catastrophic impacts.
Concerns Over Preparedness
The findings suggest widespread doubt about the country’s readiness to respond to major threats. More than half of those surveyed said Australia was either only slightly prepared or not prepared at all for scenarios such as military attack, economic crisis or disruption to critical infrastructure.
Worry about domestic terrorism has also risen. In early 2026, 72% of respondents described it as a serious concern, up from 55% in 2024.
Rory Medcalf said the results show Australians are increasingly aware of shifting global risks.
“In a time when our security landscape is changing, it would be wrong to assume that Australians are complacent,” he said.
Economic Pressures Add to Concerns
The report’s release comes amid global instability linked to conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted fuel supplies and pushed up prices.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen said several oil shipments to Australia had recently been cancelled or delayed, though the government was working to secure alternatives. He warned there could be short-term supply disruptions.
The findings underline a broader sense of unease among Australians, driven by both security threats and economic uncertainty.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 23 March 2026
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