Trump’s Poor Polls Raise GOP Midterm Concerns

President Donald Trump’s rising disapproval ratings are emerging as a potential challenge for Republican candidates as the party seeks to maintain its narrow hold on power in Washington ahead of the November midterm elections.

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A new poll conducted by ABC News, The Washington Post and Ipsos shows Trump’s disapproval rating climbing to 62%, while 37% of respondents said they approve of his performance as president. The survey also recorded strong public dissatisfaction with his handling of several key issues, including the cost of living and inflation, with 76% and 72% disapproving respectively. A further 66% said they disapproved of how he has managed the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Polling pressures for Republicans

The latest figures add to a string of surveys indicating declining support for Trump during the early months of his second term. Analysts say the numbers could create complications for Republican candidates competing in congressional races, particularly if the election becomes closely tied to views about the president.

Democrats have already begun framing the midterms as a referendum on Trump’s leadership. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that strategy could place Republicans in a difficult position.

“The Democrats are going to say, ‘This is about Trump. Forget about who we are. Forget about our platform or issues. This is just about what the president is,’” Kimball said.

He added that Republican candidates may face pressure to balance support for Trump’s policies with efforts to appeal to voters concerned about the president’s record.

“The Republicans are going to have to somehow distance themselves from some of those policies while still coming up with other ideas for why voters should vote for them,” Kimball said.

Economy and foreign policy concerns

Other recent surveys show similar trends. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last week found Trump’s overall approval rating at its lowest level of his second term, including record lows on economic management and foreign policy.

Trump has defended his economic record, saying he “won affordability” and brought inflation under control. He has also blamed rising prices on policies from the previous administration, while promoting his tariff measures and a major tax-cut law passed last year.

However, economic data released in March showed the annual inflation rate rising to 3.5%, up from 2.8% in February. The unemployment rate also edged up to 4.3% in March from 4% in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found Trump’s approval rating on economic management dropped eight percentage points between March and April. Support among Republicans also declined, with 62% approving of his economic policies compared with 74% a month earlier.

War in Iran adds pressure

Trump’s approval ratings have also been affected by the conflict with Iran, which has pushed energy prices higher and drawn mixed reactions from the public.

The United States is attempting to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Tehran after Trump withdrew from a previous deal during his first administration. Iran recently threatened action in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for global oil supplies, after Trump said the U.S. would help ensure vessels could move safely through the waterway.

In the AP-NORC survey, just 32% of Americans said they approved of Trump’s leadership on Iran. A Reuters poll found 61% of respondents disapproved of U.S. strikes against Iran, including a quarter of Republicans and two-thirds of independent voters.

Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe said the party’s electoral prospects may depend partly on whether energy prices stabilise before the election.

“If there is a stabilising situation, not just in the conflict but for the region long-term, you’re going to see that reflected in the price of oil,” Roe said, adding that lower fuel prices could ease pressure on the cost of living.

Midterm stakes and political landscape

Historically, the party of a sitting president tends to lose seats in midterm elections. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win control of the House of Representatives and four seats to take the Senate.

Recent averages from Decision Desk HQ show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 46% to 41%. However, both parties currently have negative favorability ratings.

Republicans maintain a significant financial advantage. The Republican National Committee reported about $117 million in funds, compared with roughly $14 million held by the Democratic National Committee, which also reported more than $18 million in debt.

At the same time, analysts say changes in electoral maps following redistricting may reduce the number of competitive House races, potentially limiting large swings in either direction.

Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said the growing number of safe districts for both parties could make the outcome harder to predict than in past elections.

Uncertain outlook

Some analysts argue Trump’s approval rating could still rebound before November. Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, said Trump’s polling numbers have historically fluctuated and may return to the low-to-mid 40% range.

Even so, Republicans acknowledge the political risks as the election approaches, particularly if economic pressures and the conflict with Iran continue to shape voter sentiment.

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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 5 May 2026