UK Warned Gas Shortages Could Hit Homes by 2030s

Great Britain could face gas shortages in the 2030s unless the government takes “unprecedented” steps to protect supplies from a major disruption, according to an official assessment of gas security.

The government is considering financial support for the country’s ageing gas infrastructure after a consultation warned that a “high stress scenario” could leave homes and businesses without gas within the next decade.

Officials are examining measures to support the gas sector after most consultation respondents said companies were unlikely to prepare for “low probability, high-impact events”. Such a disruption could occur as North Sea gas production continues to decline.

Supply shock risk

Three-quarters of respondents agreed with a warning from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) last year that an “emerging risk to gas supply security” could mean homes and businesses face shortages during prolonged cold weather by 2030.

Michael Shanks, the energy minister, said any government intervention in the gas market would be unprecedented and would require careful consideration.

Support for ageing infrastructure

Possible measures include financial assistance for owners of gas storage facilities and gas pipeline operators, helping make upgrades and long-term maintenance economically viable.

Shanks said the UK would continue reducing its dependence on fossil fuels by expanding clean energy, but acknowledged that the transition would take time.

“The gas system will still play an important role in our energy system for decades to come,” he said, adding that the government had a responsibility to households that would continue to use gas for heating, industries dependent on it and a power system in which gas remains important.

The government’s renewed focus on gas security comes as it prepares decisions on two controversial North Sea oil and gas projects, Rosebank and Jackdaw.

Prime Minister has said he would take a “pragmatic” approach to North Sea drilling, arguing that the UK could not ignore its domestic resources while people were struggling.

North Sea production declines

Gas accounted for more than a third of the UK’s energy consumption last year, according to government figures. However, gas demand is expected to fall by just over three-quarters by 2050 under guidance from the Committee on Climate Change.

Domestic production is expected to decline faster. The government forecasts that North Sea oil and gas output, which has already fallen for 25 years, will decrease by about 5% annually.

NESO’s first official gas supply assessment warned that potential shortages could still occur on unusually cold days as the country shifts away from gas. The risks would be greater if European storage levels were low or if an unexpected failure affected a gas import terminal or pipeline.

Reliance on imports

North Sea fields supplied almost half of the gas used by UK homes and businesses over the past five years. Norway accounted for just over a third.

Liquefied natural gas delivered by tankers from the United States and the Middle East made up about a fifth of supplies, while around 1% came through pipelines from continental Europe.

Shanks said the government was working to create a gas system capable of supporting the country's transition to clean, domestically produced energy while maintaining secure supplies and providing certainty for investment.

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18 August 2026