The United Nations has warned countries to prepare for the likely return of El Niño, a climate phenomenon that can intensify extreme weather and push global temperatures higher.
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According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% chance that El Niño conditions will develop before September and a 90% probability they will emerge before November. Most forecasting models indicate the event will be at least moderate in strength, with some suggesting it could become strong.
While some scientists have previously suggested the coming event could be among the strongest of the century, the WMO said uncertainty remains and stopped short of endorsing those projections.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said forecast models continue to show a wide range of possible outcomes, with some indicating a strong event and others not.
UN Chief Issues Warning
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the development as an urgent climate warning, saying El Niño would amplify the effects of an already warming planet.
The previous El Niño episode, which occurred during 2023-24, ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures in 2024, when worldwide heat records were broken.
The WMO said above-average temperatures are expected across most regions of the world during the next three months. It also warned that the phenomenon increases the likelihood of severe rainfall and drought in different parts of the globe.
Regional Weather Impacts
Although every El Niño event differs, the pattern is typically associated with heavier rainfall in parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia.
At the same time, drier-than-normal conditions often affect Central America, northern areas of South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia.
El Niño can also influence tropical storms by increasing hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean while suppressing storm formation in the Atlantic.
The warning comes after western Europe experienced unusually high temperatures in May, with monthly heat records broken in both the UK and Ireland. Earlier forecasts from the WMO and the UK Met Office suggested a new global temperature record is highly likely before the end of the decade, with El Niño potentially helping to drive that outcome as early as 2027.
Concerns Over Food Security
Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit said the prospect of another El Niño raises concerns for global food production, which is already facing pressure from climate-related disruptions and constraints on fertilizer supplies.
Scientists say El Niño develops when the trade winds that normally push warm surface waters westward across the Pacific weaken or reverse direction. This allows warmer waters to spread eastward, altering weather patterns worldwide.
The WMO reported that Pacific Ocean temperatures were approaching El Niño thresholds between late April and mid-May and that atmospheric conditions were also becoming consistent with the phenomenon's development.
The agency rejected the term “super El Niño,” saying it is not part of the official classification system.
Officials also stressed the importance of early-warning systems, which help communities prepare for disasters and have reduced loss of life in many regions. However, the WMO noted that some major donors, including the UK and the US, have recently reduced aid budgets that help fund such programs.
Guterres said the long-term response must include faster action to reduce fossil fuel use, expand renewable energy, protect vulnerable populations and ensure universal access to early-warning systems.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 3 June 2026
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