US intelligence assessments suggest China is preparing to send new air defence weapons to Iran within weeks, according to three people familiar with the findings, raising concerns about renewed tensions following a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.
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Officials believe the systems being prepared are shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, known as MANPADS, which could pose a threat to low-flying aircraft if hostilities resume.
The potential transfer would come shortly after China said it helped facilitate the ceasefire that halted a five-week conflict between the United States and Iran earlier this week.
Intelligence points to covert routing
Two of the sources said there are indications that Beijing may attempt to route the weapons through third countries to conceal their origin.
US officials believe Tehran could be using the pause in fighting to replenish military equipment with support from foreign partners.
During the recent conflict, such portable air defence systems were seen as a particular risk to US aircraft operating at lower altitudes.
Trump warns of consequences
Asked about the intelligence on Saturday, US President Donald Trump warned that China would face repercussions if weapons were delivered to Iran.
“If China does that, China will have big problems,” he said while departing the White House for Florida.
Trump did not say whether he had raised the issue directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The White House has confirmed that Trump is expected to travel to Beijing next month for talks with Xi, and officials said senior representatives from both countries were already in contact as ceasefire negotiations unfolded earlier in the week.
China denies the claim
A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington rejected the allegation, stating that Beijing had not provided weapons to any party involved in the conflict.
“China has never provided weapons to any party to the conflict; the information in question is untrue,” the spokesperson said.
The embassy added that China had sought to help bring about an end to the fighting and urged the United States to avoid what it called “baseless allegations”.
Questions over Iran’s air defences
During a press conference on Monday, Trump said a US F-15 fighter jet shot down over Iran last week had been struck by a “handheld shoulder missile” that was heat-seeking.
Iran has said it used a “new” air defence system to destroy the aircraft but has not disclosed further details. It remains unclear whether that system was manufactured in China.
Direct delivery of weapons by Beijing would mark a significant shift in its involvement. According to sources, Chinese companies have continued selling Iran sanctioned dual-use technology that helps maintain its weapons development and navigation capabilities.
Strategic balancing by Beijing
One source familiar with the intelligence assessments said China does not see strategic benefit in openly entering the conflict against the United States and Israel.
Instead, analysts believe Beijing is attempting to maintain ties with Iran — a major supplier of oil to China — while publicly presenting itself as neutral in the conflict.
Chinese officials could also argue that air defence systems are defensive rather than offensive weapons.
Russia, meanwhile, has provided Iran with intelligence support during the conflict, which US officials say has helped Tehran target American forces and facilities in the Middle East.
Iran maintains long-standing economic and military ties with both Beijing and Moscow. It has also supplied Russia with Shahed drones used in the war in Ukraine and continues to export large volumes of sanctioned oil to China.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 12 April 2026
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