nattaya09

2 hours ago, jackdd said:

I know where they got the number from, they did it like this:

 

Thailand has 70 million people.

Nearly 47 million (rounding up to make it look better, actually would have to be rounded down, because it's 46.3 or so) people have received a first dose.

 

If you now look up the age distribution in Thailand, you will find that the group of 0-14 year olds makes up 16.8% of the population.

So if you now make a mistake (or want to make the number look better...), and assume that 0-14 year olds don't qualify for a vaccine, then you end up with 58 million people who are supposed to get a vaccine.

58 million who should receive a vaccine vs 47 million who got one, would mean 11 million more people to be vaccinated, that's the number in the news.

 

Actually it are of course only the 0-11 year olds who don't qualify for a vaccine, for this age bracket I didn't get a clear number, but should be about 13.2% of the population.

Using the correct number gives us 60 million people who have to be vaccinated, meaning 13 million people left to be vaccinated.

 

That's probably right. If they think they will get 100% of the eligible population vaxed, it won't happen without coercion. 

It seems that once you reach about 70% fully vaxed, you have hit the ceiling of willing participants. The UK is about there and their program has been aggressive for almost a year.  Thailand will likely hit that threshold probably around the end of December. Of the remaining 30%, a large number have probably had COVID and never knew it. 

36 minutes ago, it is what it is said:

 

certainly, that's the route many other countries are going down. however, thailand's vaccination programme is still well behind the curve and they, probably with justification, are worried about whether their health care system could cope with a large number of covid cases. so don't expect any change in the near future.

The Vax program had an abysmal start but they have done well for the last three months. The will be close to 70% fully vaxed by the end of December.  That's as far as countries in the west have gotten. After that, the public demand for vaccinations will wane.

7 hours ago, aguy30 said:

82,109,881 doses sounds more impressive, but only 41,798, 684 people have received 1 or more doses.

4,165,792 people have received only 1 jab  = 4,165,792 doses

34,955,587 people have received 2 jabs  = 69,911,174 doses

2,677,305 people have received 3  jabs = 8,032,915 doses

 

82,109,881 Total doses for 41,798,684 people (approx 58% of the population have 1 or more doses)

Still 29,000,000 who haven't received any vaccination.

They won't get a 100% of the population vaxed. Even the UK is at 67% fully vaxed after almost a year of a very aggressive program. Once Thailand gets to 60-70% likely in December, most of the people who want the vaccine will have gotten it. At that point, hopefully the govt will be confident enough to drop all requirements for international entry except vax proof and passport

They should be at close to 60% by December and 70% by Jan if they keep up the current pace. After that, unvaxed demand will wane

8 hours ago, dick turpin said:

.........And in other totally unrelated news airlines cancel 80 percent of their landing slots at Swampy for the next six months.

That's what they call in Police work...."a clue"

"....The drill involved 150 people pretending to be tourists......."

That sounds about right. 

Maybe this means that ALL obstacles except passport and vax proof will be dropped by next summer

"........especially the acceleration of vaccine administration so that each province achieves a 70% coverage....."

Most likely they will get to 60% quickly in December and then the curve of willing vaccine recipients will flatten like other places

On 10/23/2021 at 12:09 AM, Kadilo said:

“Entertainment venues, pubs, bars and karaoke shops in these areas will have to remain closed for the time being.”

 

 My guess would be that this will be the case for the duration of November then, depending on the data remaining positive, the next phase will be reopening bars etc in time for the main tourism to arrive for Xmas/new year period.

 

Its a sensible, measured approach.  

If their current rate of vaccinations continues, they could be close to 60% of the population by Dec 1. Maybe that's a threshold that gives them the confidence to open these venues.  It's probably already well past when they can attract any other than the most spontaneus travelers

5 hours ago, gk10012001 said:

And I point out that often, several officials kept saying that things were conditional on 70 % vaccination rates being reached.  That 70% is not going to happen by November 1.

If they mean fully vaxed countrywide, It won't happen by Dec 1 either.  Their program is doing much better over the last couple months.  If they keep the current rate going, probably 45% by Nov 1 and 60% by Dec 1.   They might  hit 70% by the end of the year though.

3 hours ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

 

 

 

l

You were vaxed in Florida but what country issued the certificate shown?

On 10/14/2021 at 3:58 PM, Sticky Rice Balls said:

Certainly could make a hard man humble!

Used to be able to make a humble man hard...

We won't be able to get there again until the summer. Hopefully, by then it will be closer to normal

Even with a significant amount of testing in the US, the CDC has estimated the actual number of cases to date to be about 4x higher than the recorded number of 44M.

Decide what domestic vaccination level gives you confidence to drop the quarantine, insurance, PCR testing and other hoops. Then get there and open up

14 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

Hey this makes real sense let's open up to India.  get more variations of covid.  Do people not read.  The only country with more active covid cases is the U.S.

 

Why would you open up to a country that is black likested by many other countries due to the virus.

 

OH I AM SORRY 

 

forgot logic? 

I suspect the US is in a distant 2nd place to Thailands real favored tourists, the Chinese;  but we'll never know for sure

On 10/1/2021 at 12:05 AM, sirineou said:

That math do not work. If 11 are at 50% and the rest at 22.9. , the average would be a lot  Higher than 22,9.

Looks like the current number countrywide for fully vaxed is 29% with 47% at 1 dose

Unless they are awash in vaccine supply, then they should be targeting the older ones first before looking for "volunteers". 

I live about 30km outside Wash., DC.  So far, the only time I have seen this chaos is when I turn on cable news. On there, It's wall to wall along with COVID sensationalism. Otherwise, I go about business as always and haven't encountered any discernable difference in the behavoir of people from what it's always been.