what would be historic fair value for the dow jones without QE as a % of it's current value
ChatGPT said:
That’s a super interesting (and big!) question — trying to strip out the effects of Quantitative Easing (QE) from the Dow Jones to estimate a kind of "organic" or "historic fair value" is tricky, but we can reason through it.
TL;DR:
Estimates vary widely, but some analysts argue the Dow could be 30–50% lower without QE, putting a rough "historic fair value" at 50–70% of its current level. So if the Dow is around 39,000 (as of early 2025), its QE-free fair value might be in the range of 19,500 to 27,300.
I'll buy in at half price - went very long physical gold at the start of the Ukraine war on the basis that peer proxy wars by nuclear superpowers are very bad news indeed and let's take Trump's Main Street not Wall Street at face value then he will let stocks slide and what goes bust goes bust rather than a liquidity QE stick save.