beautifulthailand99

A long but interesting read - mapping out future scenarios from a western perspective. Shades of grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and the Global Order (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy) https://csds.vub.be/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/122024-IDP-Simon-and-Boswinkel-Ukraine-Futures.pdf

18 - 60 Support Ukraine - your country needs you. https://ildu.com.ua/#candidate-requirements

A war is costly, and right now even with Ukraine facing shortages in munition and manpower, it doesn't seem likely that Russia has the capacity to get significant territorial gains; as long as Ukraine has access to western satellites and produces enough drones, any Russian offensive will be very costly in terms of manpower and equipment. So anything shorter than Ukraine reaching its breaking point and collapsing, will mean that Russia won't gain much more in the battlefield than they already have. But even if Ukraine were to accept this one, people would start asking questions like "Why didn't we just give them Crimea and the Donbass and save the rest of our territories, prevent the hundreds of thousands of dead, the millions of refugees, the destroyed infrastructure?" After the war, there will need to be elections and there will be pressure to open the borders which will lead to millions more men fleeing in fear of another Russian invasion and conscription. So Ukraine is finished either way. They can finish it now or they can keep fighting, keep dying, lose even more lands and collapse entirely. It's beween a rock and a hard place. No one is winning - that is abudantly clear.

Victor Orban has been given the option by NATO to be in it but opt out of paying for Ukraine as long as he doesn't veto it. Imagine that caught on with other countries it is having your cake and eating it. If Trump wins in November the all bets are off and the odds are a coin toss at the moment.

But the bigger concern for Mr. Zelensky is that Mr. Biden, with whom his relationship has often been contentious, might be at his last Group of 7 summit. And buried in the fine print of the security agreement they signed with flair lies this paragraph: “Either Party may terminate this Agreement by providing a written notification through diplomatic channels” that would “take effect 6 months after.” That is exactly the kind of loophole that former President Donald J. Trump exploited with the Iran nuclear agreement, which he abandoned in 2018. Mr. Trump has made no secret of his disdain for Ukraine or his desire to rid the United States of a huge financial commitment there. Instead, he has insisted he could end the war in 24 hours — presumably by telling Mr. Putin he can keep the territory he has already seized. https://archive.ph/tCQce

Western propaganda isn't of the blatant sort of downright lies that you would see from authoritarian regimes. But it is the shaping of the narrative , by the sin of ommission and ensuring that the career ladders of journalists and opinion formers only get to rise up that by accepting and reinforcing that narrative that is paid for by the billionaires who own the commanding media and in whose intersts it is served.The most cogent analyis was that of Chomsky in his interview with Andrew Marr many years ago. After the Vietnam war western goverments made sure any journalists in a war zone get carefully choreographed and selected so that the news they report is that which they want us to see. There will be no more John Pilger's that door is firmly shut.

Unintended outcomes of preciptious action by the US can have catastrophic consequences. Just look at Iraq now an ally of Iran rather than an enemy and Iran didn't have nukes as the counterparty.My dad who fought in WW2 was mighty happy with the USSR fighting eventually on the side of the allies whilst in Ukraine they are bulldozering monuments to that. https://mecouncil.org/publication_chapters/from-rivals-to-allies-irans-evolving-role-in-iraqs-geopolitics/

Well he's not a Professor for a start but a PhD "doctor" with most of his qualifications from the Christian degree factories in the US so he seems to be an expert in spreading disinformation about himself. And he has paypal, buymeacofee, patreon and a host of fundraisers on his pages. I smell a a grifter. https://www.daringerdes.com/about-dr-gerdes/ This is his award; https://www.cbfa.org/teaching-award

Just gone Platinum ......

Theoretical here. My wife and I live in the UK and have a house here and a condo in Jomtien. The plan is after I die she's sells up and goes to live in Thailand a fairly rich woman in the bosom of her family. Would the strategy for when that happens , sell up in UK transfer the money to Thailnd - live less than 180 days in that tax year and when the money was seasoned, move over permanenly. Currently that would be around 25 million baht.

The best one ever was TopDeadSenter (Trump Derangment Syndrome) who at the time I violently disagreed with who supported Trump and batted away all comers. He was banned and attacked a few times so just went away. Plus there were far more members then to have a good scrap. Those days are behind us all now - site and people. https://aseannow.com/profile/297285-topdeadsenter/

This is US policy degrade Russia using Ukraine troops and surplus western kit - both of which are running out and in the end walk away with a shrug. Another country bites the dust and it's all Putin's fault. Like October 7th history begins where western interests decides it does.

That piece sounds a bit manic, and he seems to have turned on a dime recently. In April, he said Ukraine's frontlines were collapsing, and that "Unless we get a grip fast, we will not be going to polling stations in November, but to the enlistment centres". And by "we", he meant Britains in Britain would have to be drafted for war this November. In May, he said "Putin could defeat Ukraine within months". But now he writes: "A narrative has unfairly formed that the tide was all with Russia recently". Well yes, you have been co-authoring that exact narrative, mr Bretton-Gordon. Maybe because it suited those who pay your salary. But now they seem to want a different narrative. The story of strong and scary Russia moving forwards towards the English Channel was not selling tickets when it comes to support for Ukraine, so now it's all about drumming up enthusiasm for a new offensive. And this new message from mr Bretton-Gordon comes just a few days before the so-called "peace summit". Probably not a coincidence. Oh Su-57 are not the only Russian aircraft that can carry Kindzhals. Most strikes with hypersonic weapons are actually performed by Mig-31s. He belongs to chuck a load of mud at the wall and hope it sticks school of journalism , along with David Ax and Colonel Richard Kemp - the latter is being paid by Israel now so he has abruply stopped writing on Ukraine.

Well from what I can deduce Kyiv is relatively peaceful bar air raids and mostly targeted drone / missile attacks. Lack of power will be a big thing. and it is likely most travel isurance won't apply. Are you into war tourism ? It is a thing. Oh and apparently I'm going to tip off Putin to take you out ! If you give me your full details I'll see what I can do. https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ukraine

This is a discussion forum for supposed adults that make arguments based on their knowldge and support it with evidence from approved sources as per forum rules. I see little evidence of that from you just spurious ad-hominem attacks on those that don't share your views in micro content posts splattered with childish emotcions. I am all for a an uncensored free form debate so I tolerate you with mild amusment. As you were.

As an aside from this derail it was this that allowed a legal extension on a yearly vote renewed to the edn of the war. https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/lords/1940/nov/05/prolongation-of-parliament-bill

I'm curious do you have relations there or any vital business that needs to be done ?

The western press keep churning this nonsesne out maybe that's why so many are misinformed. Hamish De Bretton Gordon ex tank commander is the worst. I had a quick look at his past record....

The truth is everybody is losing and losing big.The glory days of an ever expanding world and general peace which most here were lucky to have is over. Certainly for probably the rest of most of our lives.

He did say he could do it for $5 billion. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/27/7417314/ Also there are dissident voices within the political realm that haven't been banned,exiled or arrested. https://www.dw.com/en/can-ukraines-zelenskyy-stay-in-power-without-an-election/a-68789736 Veteran Ukrainian politicians have also waded into the debate. Hryhoriy Omelchenko, a former parliamentarian and member of the constitutional drafting commission of the mid-1990s, said it was no coincidence that the extension of presidential terms remains unregulated, adding that this serves as safeguard. Even so, Omelchenko penned a letter to Zelenskyy — published in Ukrajina Moloda newspaper in March — urging the president "not to usurp state power" and to voluntarily resign in May. And "The Ukrainian constitution states this clearly," said Andriy Mahera, of the Center of Policy and Legal Reform in Kyiv. "The president does not automatically lose his powers five years after inauguration. These powers are only removed when the newly elected president takes office, i.e., after elections." Ok, what happened with Yanukovich then? Oh I forgot we don't talk about him. Oh and because, Zaluzhny will easily beat him which is why he sacked him and exiled him to Uk as Ambassador.

Oh yeah Politico is a well known Kremlin mouthpiece. At least your content free micro posts avoid the need for me to work on my answers back. Germany Calling , Germany Calling...

Oops this much vaunted loan has run into difficulties. The problem with the rule of law is just that, the rule of law. That and US war profiteering. AKA we will build the war and make Europe pay. “What Washington is proposing is, 'We [the U.S.] take a loan, Europe takes all the risk, you [Europe] pay the interest, and we [the U.S.] use the money for a U.S.-Ukraine fund,'” said one senior European diplomat. “We might be stupid but we’re not that stupid.” While EU officials are receptive to these concerns, they’re reluctant to agree to something that comes at the expense of their own taxpayers. As Ukraine struggles to pay for its war effort, the U.S. has been lobbying European allies to look into ways to secure cash for Kyiv. “If it was the other way around, they would say we are crazy,” said an EU official about the U.S. proposal. https://www.politico.eu/article/us-eu-war-in-ukraine-loan-russian-assets-negotiations-g7-us-election-western-support-joe-biden-olaf-scholz-emmanuel-macron/

Yup he should have faked them better or like China one of main trading partners abandoned them altogether. Which is what Zelenskiy has done but he would say paused. Had the Maidan demonstrators accepted the 2010 election result and not gone out on the streets with violence then maybe none of that would have happened. It was January 6th on steroids. I'll hazard a guess Ukraine was corrupt , is corrupt and will always be corrupt. Hence their main anti-corruption czar and a hero of Maidan has resigned in disgust at the corruption he has seen whose tentalces go to the very top. https://www.oscepa.org/en/news-a-media/press-releases/press-2010/international-observers-say-ukrainian-election-was-free-and-fair