beautifulthailand99

Thanks for the update - that said economics is not a science but attempts to at any point predict the outcomes based on the past and predicting the future. He no doubt for good reasons, instinct and desire would like to see the current Russian system collapse and his bias will look for data that confirms that. Elvira Nabiullina - the head of the Central Bank is regarded for better or worse as one of the world's greatest central banker and a reluctant but essential Putin ally. When you then combine that he has replaced Shoigu as defence minister by lauded technocrat economist Andrei Belousov and the pivot towards China , it's huge natural resources and land and a fairly pliant and essentially complicit population I wouldn't bet on Russia failing anytime soon. If the SBU wanted to fight a smart war assasinate these 2. Putin has his Albert Speer and his Hjalmar Schacht in place and for those with a knowledge of Nazi Germany they were his 2 key civilian allies allowing his war mchine to operate. And then he attacked Russia - history tells us unless you are mad don't do that. Don't worry about emojis I certainly don't but thanks for the thought. https://archive.ph/UNKJM

Thanks for your reply it is off topic so I will refrain from having what could have been a good debate on ethics and war and Thailand's non-aligment with "great" powers.

Anyone familiar with history should know that the US is ruthless with its aid. When it’s no longer convenient, they’ll pull it. And there’s no guarantee that they even want people to win, or win quickly. Their number one goal has been to bleed Russia out as much as possible. I really don’t think they care how many Ukrainians die to achieve that.To be fair they probably went into this war because the US promised to supply them with enough weapons to win. And that hasn't happened and now it certainly won't happen.

F16's are not the Wunderwaffe some think they are and you need to add pristine runways to their list of intensive demands to keep them airworthy. That care will extend to deploying teams with sealant to cover cracks and crevices or uneven concrete on runways as close to the frontline as possible to avoid making an obvious target out of just a few well-maintained sites, said Justin Bronk with the Royal United Services Institute think tank. “For a start, runways and taxi routes at multiple sites will need to be smooth and constantly checked for debris given how susceptible the low-slung, single-engine F-16s are to ground debris compared to MiG-29s,” he said. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-f-16-fighter-jets-war-russia-base-runway/

Yeah Politico like "Warhog Defense" is an organ of authority.

It would depend whether I was armed or not and my chance of getting out alive and what were my chances of the whole house being burnt down with me and my family inside or could a delicate situation be defused. That was Thailand's approch in WW2 wheh the Japanese invaded it saved the country. A good Buddhist/Christian compromise. Eye for Eye 38 “You have heard that it was said, ‘Eye for eye, and tooth for tooth.’[a] 39 But I tell you, do not resist an evil person. If anyone slaps you on the right cheek, turn to them the other cheek also. 40 And if anyone wants to sue you and take your shirt, hand over your coat as well.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/05/ukraine-f-16-pilot-training-00161742 Ukraine is a customer in a queue not an urgent priority and this is how your major ally treats you. 1944 it is not. That and if Russia is a threat to other European countries, as we are being constantly told charity begins at home and they are busy stocking up with kit. But the U.S. has told the Ukrainian military that in addition to limited space, other countries are in line for F-16 training at the base and that it cannot break its commitments to those nations. “We understand they don’t want to break those contracts, but they could move their American pilots to a different base for training,” said Sasha Ustinova, a Ukrainian lawmaker who has advocated for the training. The production capacity for the AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missile, made by RTX, has increased from around 500-800 per year to over 1,000, company officials said last year, in order to keep with demand. Ukraine has already used an older version of the missile with the ground-based National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System to hit Russian missiles. But the worry from capitals is that the new requests from Kyiv could begin to put a strain on countries’ stocks, and talks among alliance members are looking at who might be able to part with their missiles, and how many, and when, the official said.

For once I applaud your post - so true and so sad. But we are where we are, and should be seeking what is the least worst option now. In Thailand they say never pick a fight unless you are prepared to die as they don't fight fair or give up once they start. That's Russia - Putin or no Putin , and like the Israelis they are both traumatised, brutalised , paranoid people capable of both great achievements or great harm. It's their history , swimming in the oceans of blood of their fallen people.

Noted. And for your information I'm "not one of Putin's boys" as you put it but generally a pacifist from a Buddhist/Christian/socialist/realist school human analysis and would like to see an end to all wars. I shall add "Warthog Defense" to my list of trusted sources, though glorying in the destruction of anybody in war through watching battlefield videos is something I generally avoid in this war or any war for that matter as it seems to have become in some eyes a spectator sport or video game akin to watching snuff movies.

He may have done at the start but now he is probaly filled with an elation of meglamaniac certainty of his own destiny in history. He is a short arse after all. They are the worse - Napoleon complex - though Putin apparently has a half inch on Napoleon at 5 foot 7 inches which is exactly the same size as Zelenskiy. I have just fact checked that myself. The Napoleon complex, also known as Napoleon syndrome and short-man syndrome, is a purported condition normally attributed to people of short stature, with overly aggressive or domineering social behavior. It implies that such behavior is to compensate for the subject's physical or social shortcomings.

You say famous but there isn't even a Wikipedia article about him nor is he qouted or has written in any western mainstream journal that would pass this parishes sniff test. So it's an opinion from a marginal figure at best. Others are raising the alarm about complacent mythologies in the west and with good cause. https://archive.ph/YTurB These shifts are tectonic. Even in czarist times, Russia shipped its commodities to Europe and relied on imports from the West of manufactured goods. Russia’s oligarchs, blacklisted by most Western countries, have had to adapt to the new reality. Last month, the businessman Vladimir Potanin, whose fortune is estimated at $23.7 billion, announced that his copper and nickel empire would reorient toward China, including by moving production facilities into the country. “If we’re more integrated into the Chinese economy,” he said, “we’ll be more protected.” https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn7pej9jyo The story of the price cap highlights a dilemma for the US and its partners. Recognising that Russia is one of the largest players on the global energy market, they have tried to keep Russian oil flowing to avoid hiking energy prices. The result of that is that Moscow is still making money. “In a way, we refused to properly sanction Russian oil,” Elina Ribakova concludes. “This price cap is an attempt to have our cake and eat it. The priorities are to allow Russian oil on to the market and to reduce Russia’s revenue. And when these two priorities conflict, unfortunately the first one wins. That allows Russia to raise a lot of revenues and continue with the war.” The article then ends with a signoff that infrastructure spend has taken a dive as resources go into the war ecomomy. Pot.Kettle.Black.

I shouldn't with your long and illustrious posting history have to remind you of the rules. The most famous video of the war that I have seen is one of a Russian tanker taking out singlehandlely 8 armored vehicles inclduing 2 tanks last year with their comrades on the radio frantically trying to get them out of there. It was having seen that I realiased that Russian troops like their Ukarainian counterparts are no slouches - they rightly or wrongly are proud patriots who fight and die for their country. Something I would devoutly wish not to do.

Far be it from me to assume a mod role but one of esteemed ones did just remind us about acceptable sources and I'm not sure "Warthog Defense" You Tube channel falls into that.

I do beleive Putin prefers Biden as he fears the unpredicatability of Trump. But if Trump wins and then get sight of the intellgence briefings on corruption in Ukraine he probably gets the levers he needs. This one snuck out a month ago in the WSJ about Zelenkiy's key and vital aide his virtual shadow and closest friend in power who most in the west have barely heard of. Yermak’s closeness to the president — and evident influence over him — has drawn a barrage of accusations: that he has undemocratically consolidated power in the president’s office; overseen an unneeded purge of top officials, including commander in chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhny; restricted access to Zelensky; and sought personal control over nearly every big wartime decision. https://archive.ph/letiJ#selection-445.0-451.175

“But often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them — they come when they’re no longer relevant,” another senior officer said, citing the F-16 fighter jets as an example. A dozen or so F-16s are expected to be operational this summer, after basic pilot training has been completed. “Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024,” he said. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-great-risk-front-line-collapse-war-russia/

That article I qouted up thread deserves a post of it's own and very much chimes with my current thinking on the state of the adversaries and is by a former British militray intellgence officer. The Russians have proved themselves to be effective at regularly neutralising Ukraine’s initial edge in technology. Russia, though, has maintained its superiority in electronic warfare. For example, jamming of precision Western weaponry has considerably reduced its effectiveness. New missile systems have a “grace period” of only a few weeks before Russia develops countermeasures. Finally, on the equipment front, not only have the Russians proved themselves able to jam Ukrainian signals to their lethal FPV drones, but Russian drone production has outstripped the Ukrainians’ capacity. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russias-battle-hardened-army-learning-very-bad-news-nato-3074506

What do you need I will find it if it exists.

This corruption angle is being highlighted in numerous western MSM articles now. Ukrainian officials are particularly irritated with the U.S. ambassador, Bridget Brink The number two at Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine was reportedly suspended last month after a leak within the agency compromised a high-profile investigation into a road-building project involving government money. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-zelenskyy-meet-tensions-us-military-aid-rcna155718

I wouldn't bet on it. A senior officer from one of the Baltic states and no friend of Russia recently told me “the Russians are not stupid; they learn; and when they decide on something, they’re relentless”. First and most-importantly at the political level, Russia’s military economy, despite the pressures of western sanctions, is doing well. Just as happened during the Second World War, Russia has transferred much of its industry towards military production. Its ammunition supply has improved, albeit with the assistance of North Korea. Iran too has pitched in with its slow but effective Shahed drones in addition to thousands of other weapons systems. Very recently, the UK has claimed that China has begun to supply “lethal aid”. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russias-battle-hardened-army-learning-very-bad-news-nato-3074506

This coming out of Carnegie is probably a little heads up that we are at the limit of what the US will authorise and alarm at what a desperte Ukraine may do. It's an inner Beltway think tank and has the ear of the President and his advisers and maybe even channels his voice. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/06/ukraine-prohibition-us-weapons-strike-russia?lang=en https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnegie_Endowment_for_International_Peace The unfortunate reality is that there is a divergence between U.S. and Ukrainian interests. Kyiv has demonstrated that, in fighting off Russian aggression, it is willing to raise the risk of Russian nuclear use. Fair enough. Americans have their own interests, including seeing Ukraine successfully preserve its freedom and independence, but without risking a nuclear war in the process. It is not enough for American officials to express concern to Kyiv about the recent strikes. The United States should decline to further loosen its restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons. To relax the rules would risk American weapons being used against highly sensitive targets in Russia—including nuclear installations or leadership facilities, as well as early warning radars—thus potentially dragging the United States into in a high-stakes crisis against a nuclear-armed adversary.

Exactly - that is what will happen one remembers the US triumphalist cry of "we will bomb them back to the stone age" - the hand wringers then were the lefty-commie malcontents that cause some of our members such irritation. The west fighting small, corrupt statelets such as Afghanistan or Iraq and watching the videos of high tech weaponry and the lack of body bags fed into delusions of western military supeririority. When you attack a near peer adversary with a back stop of nukes and extensive resources and military manufacturing ability and a populace that broadly supports their leadership and is prepared to die and fight in large numbers, and couple that with an ecomomy moving towards total war production you need to match that or be prepared to lose /negotiate. Oh and it's looking like the western military industrial complex like Eisenhower most accurately forecasted has bled us dry with high tech weaponry that is fighing the last centuries war. When Russian tanks like all tanks proved so susceptible to drone attack and disablement - Ivan (apparently it is coal mining engineers in Donetsk came up with the turtle tank configuration , cope cages and drone jamming devices which have proved so effective.) Cost a few cases of vodka and scrap metal that was lying around. Meanwhile no doubt somewhere in General Dynamics a project team has been set up to report back in 2025 and design a billion dollar project to put to the Pentagon . https://unherd.com/2024/06/britain-doesnt-want-to-go-to-war/

This has been huge on the channels I frequent for many many months - big demos against enforced conscription and one of my wife's friends boyfriend is an Ukrainian draft dodger from Kyiv who never wants to go back. Why would he ? He hates Putin and Zelenskiy with equal vigour. As the article says all the brave ones are conscripted or dead and of course the endemic corruption that taints eveything. There is also a widespread belief that the mobilising officers have bribed their way into the job and are shirking “real” military duty at the front. Pimakhov said this was not true. “There are 10 people in our group, we only take people who were formerly at the front. I think people who weren’t at the front themselves don’t have the moral right to mobilise others.” The hostility towards mobilisation officers has been enhanced by a series of corruption cases in which conscription officers have been shown to take bribes to allow men to evade the draft. Pimakhov and Pikhota have been unwanted stars of a viral TikTok video in which they were berated by a passerby for trying to serve a summons on a young man, and they were mocked mercilessly in the comments. https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/06/mobilisation-squads-face-hostility-ukraine-army

The emoji front warriors who hit and run with an anonymous pointless intervention keep up their guerilla warfare though ! I've every respect for any who do service in whatever capacity even if I think they are misguided or misused by their polticians. They have been groomed. Remember this link below - this is when I realised the narrative we were being fed was propaganda nonsense. Which has indeed done harm to the cause they espouse. It minimised the actual threat that Russia posed and led to complacency and they were digging in building huge fortifications to hold their positions. NATO hasn't had a near peer adversary in their history and doesn't it show. That and the military industrial complex filling their boots with overpriced near useless tech. In both the slavic personalities of Russia and Ukraine is capacity for suffering and pain and resignation to death that we just don't have anymore in the cosseted west. They are more like each other than they are with us and therin lies the hate. If "we" ever get involved with boots on the ground and once the body bags started to pile up the anti-war movement would grow like topsy. It would be the anti-Vietnam war movement on steroids. There is talk on Willy OAM of foreign volunteers having to bribe their way out of the legion and death threats against them when they see the endemic corruption that affects their supplies. Sadly he is probably dead or realises it wasn't the battle of good vs evil he thought it was. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11824349/Russian-troops-forced-use-SHOVELS-hand-hand-combat-Ukraine.html

American armor turns out not to be the Wunderwaffe many thought it was. An $9 million dollar world leading tank destroyed by a $500 Russian Pirahna FPV drone. https://archive.ph/vtx2q

The China question.My philosophy is don't fight wars and if you must don't fight ones that you can't win or where both sides lose and overarching those is don't poke the bear as Napoleon and Hitler found out to their cost. Viewed from Beijing, the defeat of Russia would risk leaving China dangerously isolated. As one Chinese diplomat puts it, sardonically, America’s proposition to Beijing could be summarised as: “Please help us to defeat your closest ally, so that we can turn on you next.” In a similar way, Putin knows that Chinese support is completely indispensable to the Russian war effort in Ukraine. https://archive.ph/FkQhQ