tribalfusion001

4 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

Mullis -- who died before COVID was ever identified -- never said anything of the sort.

 

What makes you think Thailand is using a high amplification? And not factoring amplification into its diagnostics?  In fact prior announcements have done exactly that, i.e. specified when the amplification was such that the person was unlikley to have live virus present.

 

Note that you will not get a positive PCR result at higher amplifications unless the person has at some point had COVID and still retains some of the virus's genetic material. No amount of amplification will cause a positive result otherwise.

The NHS is using 45x, USA 40x and India 40x, I would assume everywhere is using around 40 to 45.

There was a video posted on here with Dr Mullis saying exactly what I quoted and that was you can find anything with PCR if you look hard enough, he was talking about the misuse of PCR, I have the video liked in my YouTube.

3 hours ago, hioctane said:

 

If you understand how a PCR test works, you will see why it is very accurate. You take a sample (provide it has been collected properly) and amplify it. If you have a certain viral load, you are considered infected. You can’t mess up seeing the genetic material in the sample! Keep in mind this only tests for active infections. If you have a low viral load, it won’t be detected. 

Low viral loads are detected at 45x Ct value that's why there are so many people testing positive without symptoms. In the UK if you test positive then you are a case whether you have a large or small viral load, most of the people tested have low viral loads if you use 45x, when the recommended amplification is 35x and under.

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

 

A very distorted and misleading statement.

 

PCR is a technique for amplifying small quantities of genetic material so that it is easier to detect.

 

There are different  PCR tests for different viruses. All of them use the same amplication technique but then examine for different bits of genetic material specific to different pathogens.

 

A statement by the  person who developed the PCR amplification technique, which tried to explain this, is being distorted by fringe media and conspiracy sites to make it sound like the COVID PCR test is not designed to detect COVID, which is totally false.

 

COVID PCR is quire specifically designed to detect genetic material from the COVID virus. Just as an HIV PCR is designed to detect genetic material from the HIV virus.

 

What is generic is only the amplification technique.

 

 

I think the poster was meaning that Dr Mullis said you can anything if you look hard enough with PCR. The high amplication Ct value being used is finding too many cases, this woman in Koh Samui has symptoms, but Europe's mass testing is just finding lots of positive cases.

9 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

I didn't know that Specificity was a measure of only random error.

Systemic error is when the same error occurs by the same amount every time you run the same test on the same patient.  An example would be if something was present in the patient's system that tricks the test into false positive and that something is still in the patient's system the next day, then that patient would still test positive the next day. 
 

That's an interesting point about being in the patients system, Cristiano Ronaldo has now tested positive twice without any symptoms. Excuse the source, just did a quick search for a reference. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8868067/Cristiano-Ronaldo-tests-positive-coronavirus-miss-Barcelona-clash.html

"But Juventus filed a medical report to UEFA arguing that the player's test showed a very low viral load" this would indicate that in Italy the Ct value is too high and is picking up too many people who don't show any symptoms. There is debate whether you would pass on the same viral load or not, depends on who you read and believe.

This is another example in Italy, 3 British students who keep testing positive and are not allowed to leave isolation. There is an update to the story from the 22nd in The Telegraph (paywall) they are still there. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8805591/Italy-coronavirus-Britons-quarantine-two-months-fear-mental-health.html

2 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Or she contracted it while in quarantine, but after the second test. I don't think Thai nationals are required to do pre flight testing, so can carry it into quarantine where there is the possibility, however small of passing it on.

Other countries in the region like Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar and the Philippines are reporting lots of new cases per day, but Thailand is not. Malaysia is testing 4x as many people at 60,000 per 1 million and Indonesia is 15,500 per 1 million, Thailand is 14,000 per 1 million. No one has explained why Thailand has zero cases when other SE Asian countries are reporting 500+ cases per day. Maybe people have mild symptoms and just don't bother asking to be tested.

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

TVF seems to disagree with you. Just starting the rules. Calm down.

They are the rules, but a lot esteemed scientists and virologists post on YouTube. YouTube is also censoring a lot of content that is classed as misinformation which sometimes they are not.

21 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I m wondering if this is going to trigger the same kind of Paranoia we saw when that Egyptian " Soldier " went walkabout in Rayong.

I inclined to believe  at this Lady contracted the Covid Virus in Quarantine from a flawed procedure or a contaminated worker

Paranoia, did you see how many people were protesting in the last week. I think covid-19 was the last thing they were thinking about. In western countries people are questioning the whole covid situation and asking whether this ecomonic meltdown is worth it. With low testing Thailand has probably got lots of cases walking around and mild positives if any symptoms at all.

39 Chinese is a start just another 25 million to go. I'm afraid they will have to open up, 20% reduction in GDP is too big a hit to take without serious economic damage and civil unrest.

I don't think they are capable of opening up with those in charge, tourism was nicely rolling again, people in and people out. Now they are starting from a very low base of nothing apart from the stragglers left from March. Tourist resorts that look like ghost towns with boarded up shops and bars. Maybe people will stick to closer to home after this situation finishes and far flung places will have to rely on less tourists.

21 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Ask the mods....

 

18) Social Media content is not to be used as  source material unless it is from a recognized or approved news media source,  the source of any such material (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube  etc.) should always be shown

Yep, I don't post YouTube videos anymore and I ask if what I've posted is ok sometimes.

I could trawl through NHS and CDC data but I can't be bothered lol.

12 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

So is a big protest slated for Saturday?  Scary times.

 

I heard a rumor some have seen yellow <deleted>s coming in via buses.  More scary stuff.

They gave Prayut until Saturday to resign, so I presume that there will be a big one for Saturday or Sunday. There were some small protests on Thursday with school kids outside malls and another outside a court house, it was a protest leader with glasses bit chubby.

2 hours ago, donnacha said:

Such an excellent photo, so eloquently captures this moment in history, I love it!

I'm stealing it as my profile photo, first one I've had in a decade on this forum.

Thanks for bringing my attention to it.

 

It's a great photo, fantastic symbolism. I like my school girl photo holding the 3 fingers up addressing a crowd. I nicked mine from a Thai friend on Facebook

I've had some excellent conversations with Thais in recent years about politics and the Deleted. I know a lot of foreigners don't like to talk about these subjects or have no interest, but some Thai people want to talk to a foreigner about it and explain how they feel, plus understand the differences in our countries. I have had heard the grievances and a lot of them were not happy, in my absence I guess they are lot more unhappy with the economic situation too.

13 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

We need help to defeat the virus and more to defeat Boris's insanity as the UK descends into chaos with a backdrop of Brexit I don't know about tiers just in tears marooned here ???? 

It may have been defeated already, mortality and hospital admissions the same as October 2019 like Sir Desmond pointed out in the HoC today. There is a lot of differing opinions at present within the scientific and medical profession, but those in charge have set their course.

I think it looks alright, cleaner, more modern.

Whether they work or not, as long as there are no serious side effects they will be rolled out asap. Once the most needy are jabbed the testing will decrease and the amplification of the tests will also decrease, job done and back to normal. I'm sure covid-19 will still be around but just put down to pneumonia or flu.

This crazy world can't continue for much longer like this otherwise economies will be smashed for decades and also protests are becoming more common all over the place, those will need to be kept in check or not depending if you like them.

17 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Nothing to do with the climate then?

Lack of testing because there is not much to test for and the west over tests then finds more non infectious cases.

23 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

They were 100% army in yellow shirts last night at govt house, the rest are civil servants made to turn out and a few old brainwashed die hards. Very few of the former middle class yellows for reasons which cannot be mentioned

 

 

Quality photo.

1 minute ago, Artisi said:

So, nobody is travelling here anyway..... 

They need tourists coming back asap to stimulate the economy and it might placate the protesters, but probably not too much.

1 minute ago, ozfarang said:

Here is what Turkey is doing to attract and accomodate Chinese tourists

 

https://worldofaviation.com/2020/10/istanbul-airport-officially-recognised-as-china-friendly/

They are welcome to them.

28 minutes ago, FarangJon said:

Yeah but you cant belive any official turkish government statements. 
But neither do the thai statements. 

From what I've read the Turkish figures were about 30,000 new infections per day before the UK slapped the 14 day quarantine on them, but it seems that the Turks only include infectious people in the official count not all infections/positive results. The Turkish stats have been stable for months and the deaths too, no 2nd wave unlike in western Europe.