retsdon

If I wanted to run a school that taught Thai in the UK, I'd go and find qualified Thai people to manage and teach the course. Why the MoE doesn't do the same is clear, though totally ridiculous.

Money. They'll never get the staff because they won't or can't pay enough.

yes, I know, waste of breath. Still if Thailand should wish to move things along the country could allow approval of those on Retirement Visas to volunteer to help in the public schools. Want to restrict that to elementary grades? Rural schools? Have at it, it would help.

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but it wouldn't help in the least. No curriculum, no resources, impossible class sizes, etc,etc. To move students along, you at least need a plan so that they can progress from a to b to c. And you need a bare minimum of contact hours to keep the wheels turning. None of that's in place in Thailand. A bunch of retirees with no experience of either teaching language acquisition or of classroom management would be utterly useless.

Not that many of them would stand if for more than a couple of weeks. Forty prathom 3 kids crammed in like sardines, a roasting classroom, and a bare chalkboard. It's the stuff of nightmares.

The truth is all that people wants, sadly there is no chance of the truth. The BIB clown show at the beginning, was exactly what was required to make sure that the guilty parties weren't found.

I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic just yet. At this point we have absolutely no idea of what cards the British police might have in their hand.

The weakness of Thai foreign language skills is merely s symptom of the more general disease of woeful education. Languages, geography, history, science, mathematics - choose any subject you like - it's all of a piece. The whole education system is a disaster.

The British obviously want assurance that the samples and DNA matches that they're being shown are the genuine article. It is also possible that they have their own samples, obtained after the bodies were returned - but of course, nobody really knows if that's the case or not.

My guess is that they do at least have something which they want to 'observe' matched up against fresh and proven Burmese samples.And as others have pointed out, if these new tests throw up results which don't square with the original 'proof' - then there's always the escape route for the RTP of blaming the lab.

All will be revealed in due course, I suppose.

When it is de rigeur to own the latest iDevice regardless of actual income, a rise in opportunistic crime is to be expected. It's not rocket science.

The only law on Thailand is the law of the cheque book. The stuff on the statute books isn't worth the paper its written on. Suspect's rights? Only the rich have rights in Thailand - and that's because they buy them.

The prosecutors have sent the case back 3 times. Maybe that DNA evidence is not so airtight after all.

We need a new petition, this time to prayut. We will write--

Let the innocent boys out.

I think you're right on the spot here, greenchair.

Everywhere in the world nowadays, a DNA match is considered one of the most reliable pieces of evidence that can be produced in a court, if not the most reliable.

And the concept of 'matching' is disarmingly simple : A = B.

DNA found inside the victim's body = DNA sampled from the suspects.

No approximation, no hesitation, no beating around the bush. It's YES or NO.

When the police here claim that they have a DNA match, it must be stated and proved crystal clear in the file sent to the prosecutors. But if that file keeps coming back to them, it means that there is no DNA match.

Q.E.D.

I know I keep repeating this - but DNA matching is not always black and white. The accuracy of DNA matching is wholly dependent on the quality of the sample. If the quality is low or the sample is contaminated or mixed, it is quite possible to get a partial match -with a tie-in ranging from 'it could possibly be the suspect', it might be the suspect', up to 'it probably IS the suspect'. In such circumstances DNA evidence becomes circumstantial - additional material to add to the overall weight of proof or balance of probabilities. But it's not enough to convict on alone.

For that, the RTP were almost certainly relying on their coerced confessions. Now that those have been retracted, the RTP and prosecutors are floundering. And that's why the case keeps getting sent back time and again. The problem for the RTP of course, is that will the full glare of international interest on them it's impossible for them to manufacture additional evidence from thin air.

So the case has stalled.

I getting more inclined to believe that this is not even going to reach court and charges will be dropped. Latest article just published from the Bangkok PXXt (not allowed to link to them) says the prosecutors have still not decided whether to charge them and they are also asking the British authorities for proof that the mobile phone belonged to David.

/quote]

I'm thinking the same thing. Actually, one of the most unprofessional things in the handling of this case has been this business of issuing constant 'reports', which in reality have turned out to be nothing more than speculation or wishful thinking. It paints the police into a corner, it makes them look incompetent, and it sets them up for a major loss of face when the real facts turn out to be different to what has been reported.

If the RTP learn nothing else from this fiasco, they should learn to confine their utterances to 'several leads are being followed', or ' a man is helping police with our inquiries' and other similar banalities until such time as they have a case agreed with the state prosecutor. It would free them up to shift their lines on inquiry as new evidence comes to light, it would take public pressure off them, and it would make them look less bloody incompetent.

A super tower, rising like a Phoenix above the klongside shacks and shambolic planning of Thailand's capital city. These penile extensions are tasteless enough in places like Dubai, but in a developing nation like Thailand there's something immoral about the whole idea.

China rebalancing, Europe and Japan teetering on permanent recession or worse, the backlog of a massive borrow and splurge program by the previous government, and an enormous local asset price bubble about to run out of steam.

How could he be anything but pessimistic? I'm no fan of Prayut, but it's hardly his fault and at least he's being honest.

I have this suspicion that the DNA matches are less than conclusive. And that's being charitable.

If there is a DNA match at all, why do you think it would not be conclusive?

I assume there are 2 and they are conclusive.

Why would it not be conclusive? Because it very seldom is, is why. And that's why the British Crown Prosecution Service categorically states that it will never bring a case to court on DNA evidence alone. The interpretation of DNA matching is too subjective to ensure a reliable conviction.

Do a Google search on 'DNA reliability' or ' is DNA testing sometimes wrong', etc, etc. there's reams of stuff out there on it.

I have this suspicion that the DNA matches are less than conclusive. And that's being charitable.

All tourist destinations go through fashions. For 15 years or so, Thailand was very fashionable. Quaint, inexpensive, slightly exotic without being horribly backward. But what brought people here 20 years ago has largely gone ( other than the tarts) and there hasn't been anything put in its place. Beaches? The world is full of them, and the unspoiled character that used to bring people to Thailand's coastline has been destroyed. Peace and quiet? A few million new cars on the road and a countrywide construction boom. Inexpensive prices? Only the taxis these days.

A month or so ago when I was fighting my way through the traffic in the little town where I settled fifteen years ago, I was startled to see a line of pedal songthaews with their solitary tourists in the back stuck in the traffic in front of me. The upmarket hotel in town has always punted this 'traditional' tour of town to its guests, but even ten years ago it was getting anachronistic. Now, it's simply absurd and embarassing. Will these people be reporting back to their friends about what a lovely place Thailand is after being hornswoggled into paying to be choked by exhaust fumes for an hour? The thing is, if they binned this stupid tour, what could they replace it with? A visit to the mall to eat Macdonalds or sit in Starbucks? There's nothing to bring anyone to the town anymore. Now it's just an unregulated traffic jam most of the time with lots of people hurrying about their business.

Like the rest of the country, really.

Interestingly, there's quite a lot out there on the interpretation of DNA evidence. Seemingly it's not the infallible smoking gun that the general public would like to believe. 'Highly subjective' was the term used in one report, and in one case the DNA evidence used to secure a conviction in the States was subsequently sent to seventeen accredited experts. Only one put the convicted guy in the frame, twelve put him out of it, and the rest deemed the evidence to be inconclusive.

Seeing as DNA evidence would - aside from the now retracted confessions - appear to be pretty much all that the Thai police now have against the accused, maybe that's why the prosecution keep sending the case back to the police. Certainly the British Crown Prosecution state unequivocally that they will not bring a case to court on DNA evidence alone. It's too unreliable.

I thought it interesting anyway. A quick Google search on DNA reliability will throw up a load of links.

The DNA samples from these two came back as 'possible' matches (very common apparently), but the sample from the 3rd suspect was a total no. It's enough for the RTP, who believe that if they can get confessions to go along with the 'possible' match, it'll be enough. The public think DNA evidence is infallible anyway. They let the third guy go, and take these two off to a 'safe' house where, come hell or high water, they're going to get their confessions. And so they do. The police now announce that it's an open and shut case and pat themsleves on the back.

But the confessions get retracted, and now all that they're left with is a a coupe of 'possible' matches that a half decent defence lawyer will rip to bits. It would have been enough if the case hadn't been so high profile, but now these guys are sure to be getting proper council to defend them. The state prosecution service can see what's coming down the pike, and baulk at going into court with such questionable evidence.

So the case stalls and that's where we are today. Pure speculation of course, but it fits the facts.

The level of corruption in the Thai education system, from top to bottom, is absolutely scandalous. Look at the education budget - it's enormous. As a percentage of GDP, Thailand is one of yhe highest spenders on education anywhere on the globe. Then go and look at how much of this massive budget filters down to the classroom. Practically none of it is the answer. It all gets siphoned off on the way through by a pack of criminals who in any law-abiding country would all be behind bars. Of all the things about Thailand, this business of stealing their own children's futures is the one that really makes me despair.

Have the RTP actually asserted categorically that they have DNA evidence which is more than circumstantial? There have been so many twists and turns and so much back- tracking in this case that it's hard to stay abreast.

The Koh Tao Murders... Simply follow the Electronic Trails...

Perhaps there is great value in what the British cops could follow and observer - - This is what a well-connected and computer savvy British cop should "follow and observe" in Thailand - -

Start with the obvious: The murders were perhaps committed by a well-connected Thai. That is what everyone suspects, so why not start there? Doesn't it appear that the village headman was too keen on avoiding a police investigation of his extended family and friends? To what lengths did he go to deflect an honest inquiry?

It has only been about 6-weeks since the young British couple were slain by unknown attackers. The DNA samples may have been compromised, but the electronic trails are still very warm.

Thai people (..wealthy and powerful and average..) all love their mobile phones and their ATM cards. The British investigators should follow the electronic trails, in order to establish probable or circumstantial evidence.

Even if the Koh Tao village headman and his family have all changed their mobile phone numbers, and opened new bank accounts, it doesn't matter. The local phone company computers retain all SMS text messages, and all cell tower connection data for 90-days. (This is true for DTAC, AIS, etc.) The Thai banking and ATM and CDM data is essentially retained "forever".

The British investigator needs only a starting point. He should start by determining this - -

1. What mobile phone number(s) were in use by the Koh Tao village headman, his son, and their extended circle of family and friends and cop buddies on or about 15-Sept-2014? Start with even just one verified phone number. Follow the connections. Read the text messages. You don't need triangulation data. Just a connection record with one single tower will show where in Thailand was any given mobile on any given day. The text messages, together with the approximate location of the Thai suspects, and the spider's web circle of connections will surely raise a few eyebrows. If we were back in the real world, that is how real police would establish locations and extract electronic information. (By the way, I am not referring to GPS/GPRS data from 3G/4G mobiles. All mobiles, even old 2G phones, leave connection data on the DTAC/AIS computers. Look at the signal strength bar graph on any Thai mobile. When switched on, a mobile phone is continually "connected" to at least one cell tower. Part of the 90-day data retention record is simply the tower registration number, to which that mobile phone is connected at any given time.) (Also, please realize that when you "erase" SMS text messages from your mobile, you have only erased the local copy. The server copy still has a 90-day shelf life...)

2. What bank accounts were in use by the Koh Tao village headman, his son, and their extended circle of family, friends, mia nois, girlfriends, (and cop buddies) on or about 15-Sept-2014? Follow the ATM withdrawals and the CDM redeposits from that day forward. Follow the account-to-account transfers. Follow the money trails. Ask questions. If we were back in the real world, that is how real police would investigate "suspicious behavior" in terms of who was paying off whom from 15-Sept forward...

3. Which cops, translators and other persons of interest were involved with the young Burmese boys in the "Safe House" on Koh Tao? What mobile phone numbers were those cops using on the day that the confessions were "extracted" from the Burmese suspects? The British police should follow the connections from those cops' mobile phones to bigger fish up the food chain. Wouldn't you like to read those Thai cop mobile phone text messages from that day?

It wouldn't take Agent 007 to connect the dots on all of the above, now would it? The media reports that 7 or 8 British cops are here in Thailand looking into the murders. All you need is one computer savvy British cop, and one "honest" Thai translator, and a court order allowing unfettered access to all electronic phone and banking records still stored on local servers.

It ain't rocket science...

JD

Thanks for this very informed and informative post. A breath of fresh air. I would be curious to know if thr RTP investigators were actually aware of the data available to them were they to have followed this line from day one. The impression I've had of the RTP in this case is that their methodology isn't exactly cutting edge - and it really wouldn't surprise me if they had absolutely no idea of this mine of information available to them.

Future developments will be interesting to say the least. If this data is out there, then there is no legitimate excuse for it not to be mined - if only for the purpose of eliminating potential suspects or people currently being accused on social media.

The exercises of information gathering are used when one WANTS to catch the crooks.

When one does not wish to they pull up the first lot of Burmese guys and bury them in a safe house and us in ridiculous misleading information to busy ourselves with.

No, the investigation of this affair has been reminiscent of one of those cases from the Deep South circa the 1940s or 50s. A horrific murder shocks the population. Under massive pressure to close the case, the local hick cops arrest a convenient black man, bash him into a signed confession, and the local courts hang him. Case closed. Far more convenient than potentially unearthing a can of worms and ruining the reputation of a good family - because the cops know that the slightest flaw in their case against a bigwig will be exploited to the max. And their careers will be toast if there is an acquittal. So CYA says hang the poor nigger.

It might well be that the RTA haven't ever been in a conspiracy to protect a local bigwig. It's possible that they just didn't trust that they could make a case against anyone at all that would be absolutely watertight if it came under the most rigorous scrutiny that money could buy. So, under under enormous pressure for some kind of result, they went down the old-fashioned route. However, the electronic evidence trail could well have provided them with the material to absolutely seal their case. But they weren't sufficiently educated to know about it.

All speculation of course....

The Koh Tao Murders... Simply follow the Electronic Trails...

Perhaps there is great value in what the British cops could follow and observer - - This is what a well-connected and computer savvy British cop should "follow and observe" in Thailand - -

Start with the obvious: The murders were perhaps committed by a well-connected Thai. That is what everyone suspects, so why not start there? Doesn't it appear that the village headman was too keen on avoiding a police investigation of his extended family and friends? To what lengths did he go to deflect an honest inquiry?

It has only been about 6-weeks since the young British couple were slain by unknown attackers. The DNA samples may have been compromised, but the electronic trails are still very warm.

Thai people (..wealthy and powerful and average..) all love their mobile phones and their ATM cards. The British investigators should follow the electronic trails, in order to establish probable or circumstantial evidence.

Even if the Koh Tao village headman and his family have all changed their mobile phone numbers, and opened new bank accounts, it doesn't matter. The local phone company computers retain all SMS text messages, and all cell tower connection data for 90-days. (This is true for DTAC, AIS, etc.) The Thai banking and ATM and CDM data is essentially retained "forever".

The British investigator needs only a starting point. He should start by determining this - -

1. What mobile phone number(s) were in use by the Koh Tao village headman, his son, and their extended circle of family and friends and cop buddies on or about 15-Sept-2014? Start with even just one verified phone number. Follow the connections. Read the text messages. You don't need triangulation data. Just a connection record with one single tower will show where in Thailand was any given mobile on any given day. The text messages, together with the approximate location of the Thai suspects, and the spider's web circle of connections will surely raise a few eyebrows. If we were back in the real world, that is how real police would establish locations and extract electronic information. (By the way, I am not referring to GPS/GPRS data from 3G/4G mobiles. All mobiles, even old 2G phones, leave connection data on the DTAC/AIS computers. Look at the signal strength bar graph on any Thai mobile. When switched on, a mobile phone is continually "connected" to at least one cell tower. Part of the 90-day data retention record is simply the tower registration number, to which that mobile phone is connected at any given time.) (Also, please realize that when you "erase" SMS text messages from your mobile, you have only erased the local copy. The server copy still has a 90-day shelf life...)

2. What bank accounts were in use by the Koh Tao village headman, his son, and their extended circle of family, friends, mia nois, girlfriends, (and cop buddies) on or about 15-Sept-2014? Follow the ATM withdrawals and the CDM redeposits from that day forward. Follow the account-to-account transfers. Follow the money trails. Ask questions. If we were back in the real world, that is how real police would investigate "suspicious behavior" in terms of who was paying off whom from 15-Sept forward...

3. Which cops, translators and other persons of interest were involved with the young Burmese boys in the "Safe House" on Koh Tao? What mobile phone numbers were those cops using on the day that the confessions were "extracted" from the Burmese suspects? The British police should follow the connections from those cops' mobile phones to bigger fish up the food chain. Wouldn't you like to read those Thai cop mobile phone text messages from that day?

It wouldn't take Agent 007 to connect the dots on all of the above, now would it? The media reports that 7 or 8 British cops are here in Thailand looking into the murders. All you need is one computer savvy British cop, and one "honest" Thai translator, and a court order allowing unfettered access to all electronic phone and banking records still stored on local servers.

It ain't rocket science...

JD

Thanks for this very informed and informative post. A breath of fresh air. I would be curious to know if thr RTP investigators were actually aware of the data available to them were they to have followed this line from day one. The impression I've had of the RTP in this case is that their methodology isn't exactly cutting edge - and it really wouldn't surprise me if they had absolutely no idea of this mine of information available to them.

Future developments will be interesting to say the least. If this data is out there, then there is no legitimate excuse for it not to be mined - if only for the purpose of eliminating potential suspects or people currently being accused on social media.

This <deleted> forum is getting beyond a joke, every thread on the Koh Tao case being smothered by Jdasia and his detractors, well can you please take your dickswinging and <deleted> off to PM or start a dedicated thread, a lot of posters dont have hours to wade through the threads trying to find actual updates/new news.

Many thanks in advance of your cooperation.

If you don't like a comment thread, don't read it. Simple enough really. It's the policy I follow myself, and it works a treat- really it does. But you have a point. There are a few posters here whose primary goal seems to be that of goading their fellow members. But what can you do? It's the way of the world, unfortunately.