retsdon

Motive is the elephant in the room for me. I find it very difficult to credit that two people with no apparent history of violence would together take it into their heads to suddenly commit horrific murder and rape on the spur of the moment. One person - possibly. But two? A mutual murder lust overcomes them simultaneously, and in a matter of minutes at most they agree to commit a capital crime? Drunk or not, unless both these two have some history of violence, I'm afraid I simply can't envisage it. And then when they've finished, they re-position the corpse in the most humiliating position possible? Why?

It simply doesn't add up.

They are from a country that is has a great deal of violence, including rape that largely goes unprosecuted. We have no idea what violence they may or may not have done in the past. Was there anyone on the island who has a history of rape and murder?

Was there anyone with a history of violence? Nearly all perps of homicide do before they commit the big one. As for not knowing whether the Burmese in custody fall in that category or not, any competent police force would bloody well find out!

You report you believe 2 small Burmese men driven purely by passion raped and murdered two physically larger people as the most likely scenario. Given that you have no evidence and you did not see the event you are basing your theory on what you read and how you choose to interpret what you read. The smoking gun appears to be the DNA samples, if it could be verified there are uncontaminated samples taken from the victims that are 100% matches to the Burmese men after they reportedly denied any contact then I could understand why you could call other theories a conspiracy. There is no proof of anything in the public domain other than two people have died violent deaths. Your choice to believe the RTP theory does not make it any more or less a conspiracy theory given what you know. Relentless repetition, pedantry and putdowns won't strengthen your position from where I am reading.

I am unable to imagine a reasonable scenario where just two small assailants could carry out what they are being accused of, but I would be interested to read your opinion of how you think they could. JohnThailandJohn made some very good points to support his stance in my opinion.

"I can't imagine how they could do it", blunt object trauma to the head, that's how they could do it.

If you doubt it get yourself a small person, let's say a 12 year old, ask them to hit you as hard as they can on the back of the head with a garden hoe... it doesn't look like it would end up well, does it?

Motive? Where's the motive? Not one, but two individuals would have had to, on the spur of the moment, conspire and agree to commit double murdef and rape. A psychotic individual is possible. Two independently psychotic individuals happening to be playing guitars and singing songs when a mutual murder lust overmasters them both defies credibility.

Motive is the elephant in the room for me. I find it very difficult to credit that two people with no apparent history of violence would together take it into their heads to suddenly commit horrific murder and rape on the spur of the moment. One person - possibly. But two? A mutual murder lust overcomes them simultaneously, and in a matter of minutes at most they agree to commit a capital crime? Drunk or not, unless both these two have some history of violence, I'm afraid I simply can't envisage it. And then when they've finished, they re-position the corpse in the most humiliating position possible? Why?

It simply doesn't add up.

The timing of the baht's weakening against the USD is happening at a great time for me. That is, IF it stays the same or increases over the next few days. I'll soon be wiring in a large amount of USD to purchase a new home and some other real estate. Wish I knew how much lower the baht will go and when ... but don't many of us?

Last year when I did this, the baht leaped up a small bit the very day my USDs arrived at my BKK Bank and the USDs exchanged at 500K baht less that they would have the day before. OUCH!

Do you buy a new house annually, then?

So the cabinet has approved a 10 BILLION Baht sure up for the rubber farmers, and counting............................

YOU PLANTED THE RUBBER TREES BOY'S so now do what the rest of us do wait for the world price to rise or do something els,

OR you could do what you did last time and get your hero the masquerading monk Suthep to protest and collect bag's of money in your name and that will magically disappear also, GOOD LUCK WITH THAT SUCKERS

10 billion.. a drip compared to the rice scam.. believe they gave the rice farmers also 1000 baht per rai (this goverment). I ihad hoped they would stop the handouts to farmers. Rubber farmers included.

most governments around the world subsidize local farming, i remember reading about teh corn subsidies in the good ole u s of a, huge sums.

wheat in oz, etc etc etc etc. good or bad i dont know but its common practice and thailand is not out on its own.

It's unclear how many are what you'd call proper farmers. An awful lot of hopefuls jumped on the rubber bandwagon during the China building boom. Trees were going in all over the country, even in the far north where rubber has never traditionally been grown and there's a 3 month winter with almost no production at all. Compete insanity when you're looking at a 30 year investment based on an anomalous price IMHO. In any event, a lot of the 'rubber farmers' are, if truth be known, simply speculators who were chasing unsustainable returns during a totally abnormal commodities price spike.

The bubble has now burst and commodity prices across the board - including rubber- have since taken a hit and retreated back towards historic norms. Prices aren't going back to what they were when these speculative trees were planted at all in the forseeable future, so a lot of people are going to take a hit.

Unfortunately that's what happens sometimes when greed overmasters prudence. It's the way of the world.

Everyone in Koh Tao knows the full story.......

They do? Just curious - is this speculation or first hand knowledge?

Gulf Air have discontinued a bunch of flights to Thailand from Bahrain - supposedly for the 'winter low season'. These are flights that have been running year in year out daily for at least 10 years. The seats were mostly occupied by German, French or Turkish tourists making the onward connection from Europe. So it's not surprising that Thai Airways is struggling. It would appear that Thailand has lost its lustre a bit, and given Thai Air's prices....

Any parent knows that it's not a good idea to make a rule which you can't or won't enforce. One, it's a useles source of conflict, and two, it undermines your credibility and authority in other matters. Do these people not have kids?

They have DNA evidence, supposedly. The confessions are dead in the water. Phones etc, amateurish plants. In a civilized country, the case couldn't come to court. My guess is that the prosecutor was instructed to file the charges now with what little 'evidence' he's been given rather than wait until the absolute last minute when it would be obvious that it was a dump or get off the pot situation. In reality though, they have no more reason to charge these guys now than they did weeks ago. The whole thing is a farce. But a very dangerous farce for the poor sods involved.

I do live in the US and our freedoms are much less than they were when I was younger. I admitted I haven't been there yet, but from the number of Thai blogs I read regularly. It sounds to me, from my perspective, that freedom is more prevelant in Thailand. Though it's sounding like things may be changing, unfortunately. I haven't read about andI certainly don't like the idea of on the street urine tests, being charged more because I'm farang, or being handcuffed and thrown in the wagon for not having my passport. It's why I read ThaiVisa. That being said, when I do get there I will focus on and write about the things I like. I feel confident there will be alot.

In a lot of ways Thailand is freer than the west. And if I were still a single man, and had an independent income from abroad, I wouldn't care less about the politics, or even getting stopped by the police for a urine test on Sukumvit. I hardly ever spend time in Bangkok anyway. I can still go out and have a few beers with friends and not worry about riding my motorcycle home.

When you have children though, your perspective changes. The hopeless education, the kreng jai social system, the corruption, the gangster politics, the willful ignorance - the list goes on and on and it's hard not to get a tad negative and bitter.

But if all you want to do is retire, play a bit of golf, drink a few beers and eat half-decent food at a reasonable price, Thailand is still a pretty good place to do it.

I'm beginning to think it's hopeless.

Many years ago, when I worked in the south of Thailand I heard a story about an English teacher. I knew him from around town and in truth generally tried to avoid him, because he was always trying to but the bite on you for a loan which he would never pay back.

Anyway, he moved out of town (left under a cloud when he took some girl to a hotel room and then legged it out of the door with all her clothes before paying), that and a couple of other things. I never saw him again, but then his name came up in a barroom conversation one night about a year later. One of the blokes in the conversation had a mate who worked in a neighboring town - and that's where DS ( the dodgy one) had washed up, looking for a teaching job which he duly managed to find in a local school.

As usual DS had had no money, and what little he had he spent on whores and booze, and he was sleeping on the mate's living room sofa in a shared house. Anyway, one day the mate came home and his TV and sound system were missing, and so was DS for the next two days. Putting two and two together, he went down to the local police station to make a complaint. When he mentioned DS's name, the cop says to him, 'Oh, we're looking for him about another matter. If you ever happen to come across him again, please let us know ASAP. -here's a number to call'. The mate said OK and that was that. And then lo and behold, about three days later he came home from work, and who was sitting on his doorstep as proud as you like but DS. So the mate let him, and then promptly went out and phoned the cops, who turned with remarkable speed. There was five of them, and they grabbed DS, and bundled him into the back of a police van.

Here's where the story gets interesting. The mate asked the cops if he should go down to the police station to give evidence or something - he wanted to know what had happened to his stuff and wanted it back if possible. The cop he spoke to looked a bit confused and basically said OK - and then the cops drove off with DS. So the mate went down to the police station about 15 minutes later, but there was no sign of DS or the cops who had arrested him. So he waited. And waited. And waited. Now he was starting to get curious so he decided to see it out. A couple of hours went by, and every so often a passing cop would ask him what he wanted, he'd tell them, and the cop would just sort of shrug and this went on and on. After about four hours one of the cops called him into an office, took out the paperwork for his original complaint and said something like, 'I'm sorry this guy stole your stuff, but we're not going to be able to get it back for you. Also, it would be better if you just forgot about all this. You might as well go home now'. So he did.

But of course, now he was very curious. So he made some inquiries from someone he knew at the school where DS had been working. And it turned out that there'd been a bit of scandal which, in typical Thai fashion, had been swept under the carpet. An English teacher there had seduced a 15 year old pupil and got her pregnant. The school had fired him - and that's probably when he had turned up on the mate's doorstep. But there was more. Not only had he got a fifteen year old pregnant, the fifteen year old in question had been the daughter of a local police colonel.

DS was never seen or heard from again....

When this goes to trial, I expect

1) The trial will be very drawn out.

This gives longer for the case to fade from the public's mind. It also gives the police, prosecutor and court the time to closely monitor any events happening in the UK, or less likely, Burma or NHRC and adjust their actions accordingly to cover their backs.

2) Heavy control of reporting and close management of 'the message' by the judge and any press office.

3) Nothing in the way of an adversarial trial that Western posters would be familiar with.

Cross-examination of witnesses by barristers, lawyers, etc. is almost unheard of in Thai courts. Proceedings are much more tightly controlled and dominated by the judge.

Under the cloak of martial law there it is virtually impossible these boys will go free. Meanwhile, the death toll continues .. aided by deceptive tourism promotions.

Unless the document can be leaked I fear the same tunnel vision will continue.

It is there but it must be seen to be believed.

It will be seen in the form of a coroner's report at the inquest in January. If you are actually correct, and the report exists with this finding in it, and if you are correct that the British have given the Thais a sight of the report, then the only reason for the British revealing it is to head the Thais off from digging themselves into the deepest of holes. It's not impossible that the Thais disbelieved, shrugged off, or misunderstood earlier British unofficial indications of what would be in the report.The 'I don't believe you really have a pistol in the drawer' line. So the British have duly taken out and revealed the pistol, cocked and loaded in all its glory.

The ball is firmly back on the Thai side of the net. No doubt it will take them a few days to decide quite how to play it.

Personally, I don't think there is proof of an increase in violence itself but certainly an increase of reported incidents which can/may be misleading.

Think back to your own countries say as recently as 50 years ago. Abuse was hidden, or even accepted to a degree up to this point.

IMHO of course....................

Quite true. In the village that I grew up in, it was common knowledge that the local chemist used to knock his wife about. He was never charged with anything as far as I can remember, and although people tut-tutted, I don't even think he was especially ostracized. And the local cleaning lady was the same. She was the victim of regular physical abuse for years, but her husband could still drink down the pub, play for the darts team, etc.

Things have changed a lot in the last 40 years, and it's unlikely that these guys would stay out of the courts today. Certainly they would find it impossible to carry on a normal social life with people pretending that they didn't know what was going on.

It'll probably change here too.

So each government department has its own independent police force? A novel idea...

I think there must be good money to be made in having foreign teachers on the books because for the most part they're useless. So the only reason to employ them would be either status (doubtful these days), or filthy lucre - their paychecks can be skimmed. And if your only motivation for employing someone is to skim money, it doesn't really make much difference who you employ. In fact, the more hopeless and desperate they are the better - because they'll be less likely to quibble.

If Thailand were interested in attracting professional teachers, it would pay and treat them accordingly. Go figure.

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well well... My wife and I just removed our son from a school here in Nakon pathom because the owner and full time teacher at the school was recently caught in a lie hidding the fact that he was convicted of a brutal rape back in america and released in 2004. He served a 10 yr prison term to be be released early (3 years) on condition that he return back to Thailand not to return to the USA. He came to Thailand and started a career teaching English as he doesn't speak Thai that well. Then he was let go of his last job because the school found out that he had this criminal record. he then started his own school with his wife. According to the police and Thai school board it was perfectly ok because after all he is Thai and the offence happened in america not Thailand..... At least that was there way of thinking.... Back in America he is not allowed within 1000 ft of a school but here... living the life. We gave them the opportunity to go before the entire school (moms and dads) and tell them the story but they did not and kept it a secret instead... unfortunately without the support of others to make this known even though we had the paperwork from the USA we just let it go as we don't have time for that kind of stress.

What needs to be done is for both Thai and expat teachers to be police cleared from their respective place of origin and a working with children permit issued, no certificate no work.

Erm, maybe also test expat teachers on their qualifications and abilities? What for instance with the scores of English 'teachers' who know nothing about the language's grammar, and even barely speak it, but got a job here... Can't expect the same tests for Thais though, alas... I have witnessed appaling situations, even for my non-native English speaker's ears and eyes... 'In the kingdom of the blind (persons), the one-eyed (person) is king' (transl. fm. French)?

Unfortunately you get what you pay for, and Thailand pays EFL teachers miserably even in comparison to its poorer neighbours. Combine the low pay with a lack of a proper curriculum or even any kind of realistic and achievable goals; non-existent resources; impossible class sizes; obstructive or indifferent colleagues; unmotivated students - and it's scarcely a wonder that professionally qualified teachers who take their job seriously won't work in the country.

But the issue of sketchy EFL teachers is merely symptomatic of the whole Thai education system.

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well well... My wife and I just removed our son from a school here in Nakon pathom because the owner and full time teacher at the school was recently caught in a lie hidding the fact that he was convicted of a brutal rape back in america and released in 2004. He served a 10 yr prison term to be be released early (3 years) on condition that he return back to Thailand not to return to the USA. He came to Thailand and started a career teaching English as he doesn't speak Thai that well. Then he was let go of his last job because the school found out that he had this criminal record. he then started his own school with his wife. According to the police and Thai school board it was perfectly ok because after all he is Thai and the offence happened in america not Thailand..... At least that was there way of thinking.... Back in America he is not allowed within 1000 ft of a school but here... living the life. We gave them the opportunity to go before the entire school (moms and dads) and tell them the story but they did not and kept it a secret instead... unfortunately without the support of others to make this known even though we had the paperwork from the USA we just let it go as we don't have time for that kind of stress.

What needs to be done is for both Thai and expat teachers to be police cleared from their respective place of origin and a working with children permit issued, no certificate no work.

Erm, maybe also test expat teachers on their qualifications and abilities? What for instance with the scores of English 'teachers' who know nothing about the language's grammar, and even barely speak it, but got a job here... Can't expect the same tests for Thais though, alas... I have witnessed appaling situations, even for my non-native English speaker's ears and eyes... 'In the kingdom of the blind (persons), the one-eyed (person) is king' (transl. fm. French)?

Unfortunately you get what you pay for, and Thaialnd pays EFL teachers miserably even in comparison to its poorer neighbours. Combine the low pay with a lack of a proper curriculum or even any kind of realistic and achievable goals; non-existent resources; impossible class sizes; obstructive or indifferent colleagues; unmotivated students - and it's scarcely a wonder that professionally qualified teachers who take their job seriously won't work in the country.

But the issue of sketchy EFL teachers is merely symptomatic of the whole Thai education system.

'...... and perceptions that Thailand is a cheap destination need to change. '

Pattaya as the new Antibes? Of course! Why did we never think of it before?

They do a deal. We grant you bail. Then you skip - and we'll let you run the border.Then we can say that our conclusive evidence against you couldn't be tested in court and that the murderers are out of our juristriction. Case closed and everyone happy. We'll even throw in some cash in your pocket to compensate you for your trouble.

The perfect Asian compromise.

Somehow I can't see this government ever voluntarily re-instituting democracy. It's conceivable that somewhere down the road they devise some mechanism to pass day on to day running to faces in civilian suits. But any concession of real power is not, I fear, on the agenda.