nkg

You must admit that 13 out of 12,000 is a vanishingly small number. Domestic cases were a lot lower in July, too, but as of today they have 241 cases out of 695 tests. As things stand now, the danger posed by international travellers following the sandbox rules is tiny. I thought you'd made the post a day or 2 ago, I should have checked the date ???? Yes, you made some good points in that other thread.

Well, you cherry picked that quote! What you don't mention is that the article (from the 29th of July) also says that 12,395 people arrived since July 1st. So 13 out of 12,395 people arrived with the virus. https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-third-wave-covid-infections-breach-1-000-80849.php

Well, I'd be interested to see it. I don't think it's as easy as you imagine. I was once given the task of designing a system to give members of staff at a company a surprise one-off bonus. Seniority and rates of pay were not a factor. Hours worked, number of hours covered for other staff, hours of overtime worked were all stipulated as factors. No matter what formula I came up with, it was obvious that certain members of staff would feel aggrieved at the outcome - and that included giving everyone the same amount (same for staff working 3 hours a week vs 60 hours a week). You can guess what ended up happening to the surprise one-off bonus ...

It is Thailand's policy of not prioritizing vaccines for the elderly that has resulted in more deaths. That policy has been in place since the start of the pandemic. Blaming Phuket for this is an unhelpful distraction. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-thailands-elderly-lag-behind-covid-vaccination-drive-data-show-2021-08-31/

But Thailand haven't been prioritizing the vaccinations of the elderly anywhere in Thailand. The UK started off with the over 85s, then the over 80s (and their caregivers), then the over 75s etc. Thailand haven't done anything like that. Apart from hospital staff and "VIPs", vaccinations have gone to whoever signed up to a list first or got to the front of a queue. No system was in place to prioritize the elderly anywhere in Thailand when Phuket got their "extra vaccines". If Phuket had refused to accept them, they would have just gone into the arms of 20-somethings in Bangkok instead.

According to the numbers in the story, it would be (4,963 + 12,742) = 17,705 long stayers so far. Thai nationals who've spent time abroad are usually wealthier than their domestic counterparts. Of course, what you say about the TAT's predictions is spot-on.

Of course, you could argue that returning expats spend far more money over months/years than tourists who stay for a few weeks. It's a good thing for Thailand if lots of long-term visitors arrive.

Well, that helps to answer the question of how many "Sandboxers" were short-stay tourists. If 10,492 returned home, then that would be: (10,492 / 28,197) x 100 = 37.2% were tourists Some of those who stayed may just be on an extended holiday or recently arrived, and planning to return soon, though. Maybe closer to 50%.

Most countries are not giving any compensation for vaccine related deaths. Deciding not to give anybody any money is certainly a "fairer" solution. Thailand may have made many mistakes regarding covid, but offering this compensation isn't a bad idea. It provides a bit of relief for families who have suffered, and helps to encourage vaccine-hesitant people to go ahead with their vaccinations. There is no possible "perfectly fair" compensation scheme, other than no compensation at all.

Oh, you old charmer ????

Sounds like your pool has a very positive effect on your social life ????

Well, my profile picture was taken a few years ago ????

I definitely think it's alarming. It's likely that many of the tests are being given to people displaying covid symptoms, hence the high numbers. If Thailand were to test 800,000 people a day like in the UK, the percentage of positive tests would be far lower, although the raw numbers of positive tests would rise.

When I click reply, it only includes the post I'm responding to, not the one before made by a different person. My post didn't make much sense unless both replies were included, unfortunately I didn't include the other person's name, which I should have done. My post wasn't criticizing you or anybody else, it was intended as a joke. Don't worry, be happy ????

Why would that be odd? Anyway, happy to hear Mr. Weller is alright. Judging by the average poster on Thaivisa, most of the expats in Thailand are miserable old sods, not youthful 49 year-olds ????

I was thinking more in terms of the daily confirmed cases vs the daily confirmed deaths - cumulative cases/deaths don't tell us what is happening now, as you alluded to in your post. Thanks for the links, very useful. I had a look at the figures - in the last week, Phuket do appear to have more tests than average, but not way more: For the last week: Approximately 600 tests a day in Phuket, 550,000 people (according to the data) 600 / 550000 x 100 = 0.11% of Phuketians tested daily Approximately 50,000 tests a day in Thailand, 72,000,000 people 50000 / 72000000 x 100 = 0.07% of Thais tested daily https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/index.php?dashboard=province Good point regarding the deaths in Phuket being low due to high levels of vaccinations. When I look at covid stats from different countries, I usually regard daily deaths as being more reliable than daily positives (due to varying numbers of tests in each country). However, the high number of vaccinations in Phuket would mean that the opposite is true in this case.

Off the top of my head, something like 85% of UK household debt relates to mortgages on properties. I'd classify this as "good" debt - if I own a house worth £500,000 with an outstanding mortgage of £100,000, in theory I'm adding £100,000 to the UK's "household debt" figures. In practice, I can sell my house and have £400,000 in the bank and no debt. Thai household debt has a far lower property component, something like 30% or 40%. The remaining debt is car purchases, business loans, unsecured debt etc. So the profile of Thai household debt is far worse than UK debt. Obviously Thais do get involved with loan sharks etc, which wouldn't show up on the national figures if done on an "unofficial" basis.

_

"Public debt" is how we used to describe the "national debt" - how much the government owes. It has nothing to do with "household debt", which is the category under which loan sharks would fall. Thai household debt is 89.3% of GDP, compared to UK household debt of 96.6% of GDP.

The Thai baht isn't really "strengthening". The pound has gone from 37 baht in August 2019 to (very briefly) 46 baht earlier this month. Now it is 44.93. Currencies go up and down within short periods of time, hence the jagged graphs. IMO the pound will be 48-49 this time next year, but there will be lots of ups and downs before then.

Why is it obvious? There should be a direct link between deaths and infections. I don't know the figures for deaths or infections in Phuket, but it's interesting that my guess that deaths would be lower than infections turned out to be correct. Certainly the foreigners who have 3 PCR tests in 2 weeks are getting more tests than anyone else in Thailand. There have been various news stories about increased numbers of covid tests in Phuket, like this one. https://www.thephuketnews.com/more-than-12-000-tested-by-atks-in-phuket-more-than-500-covid-cases-identified-81124.php

If Phuket is the 5th most infected province, it's probably because Phuket are doing far more tests than other provinces. I bet Phuket doesn't have the 5th most covid deaths.

So: 1) They don't need to pay 4500 baht up front for 3 PCR tests 2) They don't need to pay to stay in an SHA+ hotel for 14 days 3) They don't need to pay 5000 baht for special Thai covid insurance Those sound like sensible rules. Why not do the same for their foreign tourists?

It sounds like a lot, but most wealthy countries have higher levels of debt to GDP: France 98.5% United Kingdom 87.0% United States 82.3% Japan 223.8% Germany 64.1% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Here's a photo of the new mouthwash ????