tomacht8

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

And you have conveniently started your charts from early 2016. 

From the referendum year 2016. It's clear.
What should I do with charts from the Greece Euro Crisis or the 30 Years War.
Historical charts are interesting for historians.
But the framework data is changing rapidly.
A three year period involving the considered Event makes sense.
That the pound stood much better when Nixon was discontinued; that is clear for me.
May you can do also post some Charts?
Do not be so lazy.

22 minutes ago, tebee said:

indeed, the whole of the EU is much better prepared for a possible no deal Brexit than the UK is.

I can support it that way.
The UK does not have the administrative infrastructure to handle all the tasks that have been carried out via the EU now.

Subsidy allocation to British farmers.
Allocation of research funds for UK projects.
Implementation of the Erasmus program.
Participation in the project Galileo.
Carrying out investment financing.
Joint work on safety databases.
Sustainability, resource security, environmental protection.
Allocation of structural development funds.
And much more.

But now the UK must first invest in border security and customs clearance capacity.
555
They can do that, certainly in 40+ days, right?

2 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

You're neglecting the fact that the THB has been growing in strength over the past 5 years or so. The recent correction of the pound (it was over valued) has added to the difficulties for UK expats in LOS, but it is not the main cause. 

Finally, a chart for our friends from the UK who live in southern europe.
And I am sorry to hear that some / many were not allowed to take part in the referendum. There is probably some 10? - 15? Year rule.
Anyway.
There are already some 100,000 involved.
The British pound has plummeted to the euro since the Brexit issue.
It's not just about the Thai residents.
- 12,1%
Since the buns for UK pensioners and UK tourists have become a bit more expensive.

5 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

dunno Grouse, this is somewhat difficult terrain to navigate in,

 

although many on TVF seem to think there are very simple solutions to complex problems,

(the problems are not complex at all, but parties disagree way too much)

reality shows it ain't that easy.

 

it was said above that leaving with no deal has no credibility, maybe so,

maybe no-deal is no threat any longer, can agree with that

 

the real threat, which would really take the piss out of EU is if UK decided to remain,

and then trigger a new A50

and EU would enjoy couple of more years with so called negotiators from UK

and not least circus Farage in EP.

 

That would really piss EU off, big time.

 

The importance of avoiding no-deal has diminished over time.

 

 

 

 

Many companies are already preparing for this.
All seminars at the Chambers of Commerce in Germany are fully booked!
How do I properly fill in the customs documents?
What is a certificate of origin?
What tariffs await me?
What is the SAD A50?
What is differential taxation on exports to non-EU countries.
Product Sales Tax Identification Number.
GBVAT Registration NumberVAT Reg No 11/14 GB x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9x10x11x12
More bureaucracy, more costs, long handling times.
This leads to lower corporate profits and higher prices for all Europeans.
The main thing is that the Brexiters have their independence sausage.
There are some sympathies gone.

8 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Gotta agree, leaving means no deals, no payoffs just goodbye.

If they don't like it, they can start shooting.

shooting no.
This will be a decade-long trial.
Meanwhile, the globe keeps turning.
Europe is getting poorer overall.
Emerging markets catch up.
And the big three US, China and Russia share the cake.
The disunity of Europe is the best that could happen to their economy.
Think the UK will also lose respect as a solid investment location.

59 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You're neglecting the fact that the THB has been growing in strength over the past 5 years or so. The recent correction of the pound (it was over valued) has added to the difficulties for UK expats in LOS, but it is not the main cause. 

You Brexit boys are great.
Enclosed 5 charts (all 3 years viewing)

Coincidentally, the depreciation of the British pound begins exactly with the Brexit issue.
On Brexit day (R.Day) it looks like the Eiger north face. -22,1
The Euro Thaibaht course also falls, but much later due to the lack of clarity. -11,5
Compared to the pound, the euro has won since Brexit. +13,7
The GBP on the Singapore Dollar Chart shows structures similar to the GBP - Thai Chart. -14
That the Thai Baht is very strong against the Euro and GBP is clear, but Brexit has a very large share in the devaluation of the British pound. Big events are reflected in Charts.

19 minutes ago, aright said:

Perhaps you could point me to the post and sentence where I said that. 

Is this a trick of illogical conversation, according to the motto who asks ....leads?

Where are we going?

To the cinema.

What they showing?

Quo vadis. 

What does it mean?

Where are we going.

To the cinema.

......

1 minute ago, aright said:

I sympathize with all my friends living in Thailand who are having an out of money experience, and I know a few. Fortunately those of us who live in the UK don't pay our bills in thai baht and as far as I know money traders don't base their decisions on sterling/euro/dollar rates by consulting the thai baht first.

 

Good for you.

Everything is in perfect order. So the British Pound is stable to all major currencies within the last 10, 5, 2 years?

Do not be ridiculous.

Maybe you should get some charts from your moneytrader friends first.

4 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Correct. If there’s one thing the EU must be scared about, and one thing the UK has in terms of negotiating power, it’s the right to cancel A50. The biggest nightmare for the EU is not a no-deal; a big club can easily manage that. The biggest nightmare is ending up with that failed democracy, that divided nation and all its lunatics wracking our countries and blocking our future the same way they did with the UK. 

 

The number one priority for the EU now must be to get the UK out, so it cannot use the A50 cancellation anymore. The second priority would be to let the UK leave with a deal to make things easier. 

 

So, I am almost inclined to argue in favor of giving in on the backstop. Making some concessions there and getting the deal through parliament would remove the biggest threat from the process, which is an A50 cancellation. After that, we would be in the same situation as now, I.e. the UK begging for a trade agreement, but without any negotiating power, and without anything to threaten with. 

 

And I actually think that’s the EU’s current negotiating strategy. They will probably make some concessions last minute to achieve exactly that. They are just holding back until the last minute so that there’s more pressure and less chance to add other things to the negotiation. 

A very interesting theory.

The EU calculates the scenarios there as well as the UK / Brexit.

The financial damage calculations of the departure of the UK are as well as the positive calculation.

What's on the plus side for the EU?

How many companies will / need to move their location to the EU in the short, medium and long term?

What tax revenues are expected?

Which capital flows can be expected?

Which investment projects are to be expected?

It is very easy to shop for something cheap. The bottleneck is today on the sales side. The supply is greater than the demand. Only those who can sell value-added and get the order from the market is the winner. 

The fact that the UK voluntarily gives up his unproblematic market access to the largest market also offers opportunities for the remaining 27 market partners.

No question.

These scenarios have certainly been calculated internally by the EU too.

24 minutes ago, aright said:

"What has been underplayed however was that the pound was massively inflated just prior to the referendum and would have dropped significantly even if there had been a remain vote. It just couldn't stay that high. If you look at an exchange chart for the years preceding Brexit or went on holiday and bought Euros at that time, you wouldn't be huffing and puffing in comparison with today's exchange rates. Sure they are marginally lower but measuring the drop from a historic high is a bit misleading to say the least."

Measuring a drop from a historic high is political point scoring not economic analysis. If you are a Remainer, sure, bang on about it but if you are an economist you would be looking at trends over a period not short term fluctuations.

https://www.quora.com/How-much-did-the-British-Pound-devalue-since-Brexit

 

 

555. Beware what you say here. All those who have been living in thailand for several years know the currency development of the pound exactly.

50 minutes ago, evadgib said:

One reason the illegal crossing points were kept open during the troubles were to allow the 'away-day' RoI citizens to turn up at post offices clutching their 'I'm British' paperwork on dole days or to blag prescription meds or treatment on the NHS paid for by the very people they despise...

So Not worry.

Today we have Internet, Email, Onlineshops and delivery Services.

10 hours ago, aright said:

I'm not crazy about Pizza but I am looking forward to my first post Brexit celebration meal.

 

A lovely USDA steak

Some great vegetables from Africa

Bread made from Canadian flour

New Zealand butter

Washed down with a full bodied Australian Shiraz

 

and the Bill will be 20-25% lower.

 

 

 

 

 

I begrudge you.

20% cheaper?

Then the submerged British pound would have to rise again enormously. 

I love the Brexiteer economics.

2 hours ago, SheungWan said:

For a number of Brits GBPTHB hovering around that psychologically important 40 mid-point line. Has TT Exchange broken it?

Yes.

It is going down fast as a Lift.

Bangkok Bank today:

Cash: 39.12

TT: 39.667

By the end of February, if there are no good news, we could test the 38.XX

The Brexit banana stucks full in the back end. 

46 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

All conjecture.

 

"We'll probably end up 10 - 20% poorer".

That's just a guess from those who don't want us to leave. 

 

"little laws and regulations  will make it too expensive to base a multinational company here."

On the contrary, we'll be free to make the UK more competitive for multinationals once we're no longer constrained by EU laws. 

 

 

 

Clear tax-free paradise for multinational companies.

1. The tax revenue of the state will be enough then to pay his

existing pensioners and the mountain to steadily growing future pensioners?

2. In order to attract large national companies, however, the wage level has to be lowered to Chinese standards.

3. large companies need large sales markets in order to achieve cost-effective economies of scale. Sorry but the UK will not have tariff free access to the next largest market in its neighborhood.

4. And the whole Brexit nonsense to make yourself dependent again on big multis?

In this case, the Brexit cat bites itself in the tail.

30 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I've already dealt with the food angle - won't happen for the reasons I stated. 

As for other goods, it's highly unlikely the UK standards would be materially lower than EU standards. 

 

I say again, do you think the EU would risk causing a war over these minimal trade risks? 

A war?

That's nonsense.

If the UK is outside, it's a third state.

That the UK adopts EU quality standards? There are no legal guarantees. The UK has Not enough staff and capacities at the moment to make sure of that. Currently 400 veterinarians are needed additionally

at the border points, only for live cattle.

The UK is already in the situation of not being able to make any reasonable customs clearance. In the past, the UK has massively saved on personnel.

And by the end of march, the UK needs at least an additional 1000+ costums certified people. 

Minimal Trade Risks?

The open border would be a massive hole that would lead to billions in losses.

The problem is that the UK has not given enough thought to the prevalence of Brexit.
A national egoistic idiology meets

international, economic practice here.

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

Here's your starter for ten. . .  https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/10-industries-benefit-from-brexit-ben-yi/

Lol

Clearly, when a zebra dies in the savanna, the vultures benefit from the carcass.

2 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Give us some actual examples of what risk there is to the EU if the border stays open after Brexit. 

 

Somebody said previously that sub-standard beef could be exported to the UK, then re-labled, then transported to RoI and then into EU countries. The cost of doing all that would wipe out the profit, and also the whole process would eat into the beef's sell by date. So this is not going to happen. 

 

If the EU were to install a border the troubles would start again. It would re-start a war. People will die. 

 

Which option do you think the peace loving EU will take - leave the border open and risk a few fast boiling kettles making their way into Dublin, or install a border and start a war?

 

There will be no border! 

 

 

EU demands 2.7bn euros of 'unpaid customs duty' from UK.

The UK is accused of doing too little to prevent fraud after it was warned about the problem by the EU's watchdog Olaf in 2017.

It begins a legal process which could end at the European Court of Justice.

The danger is, that everyday cheap garbage (medicines, food, electronics, textiles, toys, etc) from dubious sources unchecked in the UK is imported with the aim to sell them in the EU. The EU's strict product standards should be circumvented to the detriment of all EU consumers.

Criminals will exploit this vulnerability.

21 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Small amounts against national accounts I agree, but much more significant as a percentage of the EU's own budget, which they want to increase further, of course.

That's right. The uk share in the eu budget is about 13%. The uk gives 0, 436% of their gdp (8.9 billion from 2040 billion) in the EU pot. The economic question is what use / influence has the 0.436% on the UK gdp in the amount of 2040 billion.

The damage of the haphazard Brexit is already many times higher. Div. Calculations showing that the UK has already gambled casually from 18 billion here. Plus the international losses due to the devaluation of the british pound. Much over 100 billion. Plus the cost of building the necessary additional bureaucracy (customs officers, border security), plus the threat of emigration of many taxpaying companies.

It is annoying, even after 2.5 years, again and again to read this same economic nonsense. Like the UK saves its EU contribution and is then better off.

43 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Indeed, here’s the list of shareholders:

1. HM Treasury.

You forgot

2. the Illuminati.

3. the old Fuggers of Augsburg

4. the Vatican and its crusaders.

5. the lodge association

6. the D. Trump Cooperation

7. The queen

Just to name a few.

8. D. Copperfield

Btw, where are the 80 tons of gold belonging to the state of Venezuela?

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

IIRC, prices rose after we joined the EEC - thanks to EEC and CAP policy?

It's not that easy. All purchasing power analyzes that make a longitudinal chronology come to different conclusions.

Normal food become significantly cheaper. For a pound of butter, the average wage earner only had to work four minutes in 2009 - five decades ago he had to invest 39 minutes of his labor. Food prices have fallen significantly in the past 40 years if   

you consider how long you have to work for a commodity.

Therefore, the development is particularly extreme with them. But even for clothes whose price has actually increased significantly, the employee has to work less. High-heeled ladies pumps cost according to the IW study in 1960 about 18.50 euros and 2009 about 77.50 euros. Nevertheless, you can afford it today after 5.5 hours of work - at that time it was 14.5 hours.

The extreme case is the TV: In 1960, the average earner had to work for more than two weeks for a black and white device. Today he gets a simple color TV worth just under 190 euros after just one and a half days.

The general trend that purchasing power is growing despite rising prices is also evident in products that have barely changed.

Question how about an unregulated Brexit. Will prices rise faster than wages? I think so.

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Neh worry lad ... we can grow enough for own own organic chip butties.

That is clear. The EU has never forbidden the UK to grow its own salad and tomatoes. I'm looking forward to what wage costs that happens and how efficient that is. Wants to bet that this will probably lead to price increases for end users. Good luck for the British brexit tomato.