rickirs

However you may view the USA's current attitude towards Thailand continuing to be ruled by military Junta, the sad bottom line is that the USA doesn't need Thailand as an ally or trade partner. In the 1960's/1970's yes, the USA needed Thailand as an ideological ally. Now it does not.

Seemingly unrecognized by the Junta is that the world has changed in terms of economic and military security. Global threats to the USA have largely shifted from Asia, and the USA is shortly becoming energy independent. The USA, its allies, and partners are in a process of political encirclement of China that does not require Thailand's participation; the USA has become a critical trade partner of China who must now carefully weigh any political intrusion into other Asian internal affairs; Japan is moving towards a Western-style offensive military posture; and Russia is collapsing as a superpower in regard to political dominance.

It is rather that Thailand needs the USA and its allies as partners. But that would require the Thai military socio-complex to be expunged from power. Is the Thai military willing to sacrafice such power to place unlimited sovereignty in the hands of the Thai people that is, ironcially, recognized in Article 3 of the Interim Charter? The history of Thai military coups says, "NEVER." The larger question then becomes whether the Thai people themselves will come to recognize that its is they alone who hold the rights to the nation's sovereignty. The alarm clock is ringing. Will it wake the military up before its options become severly limited?

Take a look at the history of the 2007 Constitution:

- Military Junta leaders (incl. Prayuth) overthrow elected PM Thaksin Shinawatra Sept. 19, 2006

- Junta justified coup needed to save democracy claiming systemic corruption under Thaksin

- Junta suspends the 1997 Constitution

- Junta handpicks 1,982 members for a National People’s Assembly

- NPA nominates 200 of its own members to write a permanent constitution

- Junta reduces constitution charter group to 35

- Junta imposed interim constitution removing civil liberties and provides itself with final authority

- Interim Constitution changes “NPA” to “National Legislative Assembly”

- August 19, 2007 referendum with 56.7% in favor, 41.4% against, and 1.9% invalidated

- August 24, 2007 new Constitution became law

- Government general election held Dec. 23, 2007

- Thaksin allied party People’s Power Party wins 47.5% seats

- Democrats win 34.6% seats

- PPP Samak Sundaravej becomes PM on Jan. 29, 2008

If the historical timeline above has any relevance, it took 16 months from the Thaksin overthrow to a new PM, including a constitutional referendum. Dr. Visanu's projection of an election in January 2016 represents a total time of 20 months and that's likely without any constitutional referendum (Junta says unnecessary and NLA says desirable).

Considering the Junta’s expanded agenda for “reforms,” Dr. Visanu’s estimate appears reasonable compared to the 2007 electoral process. According to the CDC, a constitutional referendum would add another 3 months to the electoral process, assuming a simple majority supported the proposed draft, that would also seem justified.

If there’s no majority in favor of the proposed constitution (a reason for not having a referendum at all!), the Junta may just continue its rule of the nation indefinitely without regard to any commitment for returning it to a democratically elected government. If in all this time the Junta becomes risk-sensitive to again overthrow the government, the last scenario is likely with the Junta-led government evolving into a Chinese/North Korean-style one party system.

"The military regime expects gross domestic product to grow by 4 per cent this year, likely driven by state and private investment"

The Junta can expect all it wants but reality says otherwise.

- Negative inflation in January 2015 (Finance Minister Sommai Phasi)

- Domestic consumption and private investment in Thailand is still slow

- The country’s export growth in 2015 will be only 1.5%

- The country’s economic growth projections for 2015 will be just 3.9%

- The country has entered a "new normal" period that could see annual growth of only 3%

- The Government has made no "ground-breaking" investment projects (Government borrows 80% from Chinese to fund the Dual Rail System)

- Prices for rubber, rice, chicken and eggs down

- Tourism down

- Chinese GDP rate to shrink 10%

Thailand will be fortunate to see 2.5% GDP growth for 2015.

"The military regime expects gross domestic product to grow by 4 per cent this year, likely driven by state and private investment"

The Junta can expect all it wants but reality says otherwise.

- Negative inflation in January 2015 (Finance Minister Sommai Phasi)

- Domestic consumption and private investment in Thailand is still slow

- The country’s export growth in 2015 will be only 1.5%

- The country’s economic growth projections for 2015 will be just 3.9%

- The country has entered a "new normal" period that could see annual growth of only 3%

- The Government has made no "ground-breaking" investment projects (Government borrows 80% from Chinese to fund the Dual Rail System)

- Prices for rubber, rice, chicken, and eggs down

- Tourism down

- Chinese GDP rate to shrink 10%

Thailand will be fortunate to see 2.5% GDP growth for 2015.

The NCPO says it wants to create a transparent and accountable government. So it relies on its priviledged power to forced secret attitude meetings that violate Thai sovereignty guaranteed by Article 3 of the Interim Charter, "Sovereign power belongs to all Thais."

The Junta does not provide the electorate with a legitimate model of behavior, yet expects the Thai electorate to respect its behavior. Is the Junta obligated to ANY standard of democratic behavior short of its own personal dictates?

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The Office of the Ombudsman, meanwhile, is keen on the merger and has voiced its readiness to work with the NHRC. Siracha Vongsarayankura, from the Ombudsman's Office, said earlier that he would like the CDC to clarify the tasks of the two institutions should they merge.

The Ombudsman has no teeth, as evidenced by his inability to settle the Thaksin passport issue. I can't remember how many times he tried to get Thaksins cousin to report to him, but he was treated like crap and had no recourse. Forget about merging the office with another, unless they have the power to arrest and hold politicians, whether Parliament is in session or not.

I believe there are three Ombudsmen. Last year Ombudsman Pornpetch Wichitcholchai resigned from his Ombudsman post in order to take up the role of NLA President and replaced by General Prayuth with former Deputy Permanent Secretary for Defense General Wittawat Ratchatanan. The Ombudsmen will have plenty of bite in the rear of the NHRC members.

"We need a good blueprint and a good contractor to build a good house"

Having gotten an illegal building permit, what does it matter on what kind of house the NRC builds?

General Prayuth's anger is understandable!

When you get picked by The Man to do a job for The Man, you don't cross The Man. Any mafia soldier knows that rule. Why are NRA/CDC members having such a hard time understanding the rules?

While the NRC is correct to delay the energy bids, and the CDC is correct to defer the stricter computer laws and oppose merger of the HRC with the Ombudsmen, correctness is not what the Junta expects but rather obediance. Gen. Prayuth needs to remind ALL members of his appointed puppet government that it is the NCPO's reform agenda which has priority over the supposed soverneignty of the Thai people.

While the NLA/NRC/CDC are incapabale of promoting reconciliation between Thailand's political factions, no doubt they will reconcile with Gen. Prayuth - with complete submission. Although Gen. Prayuth might be advised to hedge their compliance with additional military officers in the organizations and/or a couple attitude workshops.

Don't expect him to serve any real time. The pattern of justice in Thailand seems to be #1 confession, #2 repetence, and #3 a fine (or whatever covers the payment for freedom). Then perhaps deportation or a better "understanding" of the suspect with police.

Gen. Prayuth has cited nefarious reasons for continued use of martial law despite the lack of any clear coup-directed violence such as "political undercurrents." He believes that even the threat of criticism of the coup and Junta-led government is sufficient reason to maintain a hardcore martial law. And he includes the potential for criticism that might come from foreign-based opposition that would be out of the coup's reach.

We don't know yet the motivation for the two pipe bombs. But as political statements, placing them in a shopping mall likely to have foreigners and a variety of Thai people doesn't seem the best form of political intimidation given the risks for capture. For anti-coup opposition looking to make violent political statements against the Junta I'd expect military and government related facilities and personnel as targets. They are just as vulnerable as civillian facilities and less likely to have CCTV.

Given the lack of any substantial military successes with getting insurgent Malay-Thais in South Thailand to peace talks, the attack may be more anti-miiltary than anti-coup.

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And just to let everyone know, I am aiming for the Canadian dollar to climb out of the doldrums and get back on a par with our good friends to the south of us. alt=whistling.gif>

Mexico?

"lift martial law and replace it with Article 44, which grants the junta unchecked power."

Other than being a game of words - impossible.

How do you think martial law came about and continues to exist? It is a control tool of the Junta imposed through the authority given to itself through Article 44.

Article 44 empowers the NCPO leader to issue any order "for the sake of the reforms in any field, the promotion of love and harmony amongst the people in the nation, or the prevention, abatement or suppression of any act detrimental to national order or security, royal throne, national economy or public administration, whether the act occurs inside or outside the kingdom." The orders so issued are all deemed "lawful, constitutional and final."

Martial law and Article 44 are not mutually independent such that one could be replaced by the other. If martial law were rescinded, Article 44 still is in effect. If Article 44 were rescinded, there can be no martial law. Indeed, Article 44 gives the Junta unchecked power and it can impose any restrictions it chooses to exercise as a rule of law. So if the Junta were to rename "martial law" to something pleasing like "Junta Time-out," will Thais businesses be happy? Are we just talking about silly semantics?

If one is concerned about semantics, consider the more serious conflict that exists between Article 3 and Article 44. Article 3 provides that "Sovereign power belongs to all Thais." But Article 44 seems to override the Thai people's sovereign power. This issue was raised by former PM Abhisit who believed that Article 44 violates the intention of Article 3, "I hope the NCPO chief explains how is he going to exercise his power in accordance with Article 44 to create clarity and prevent conflicts and problems that may arise,''. The Junta reconciles the conflict simply by having the armed might to do what it wants without regard to the Thai people. The Junta can only hope that 65 million Thais don't take their sovereign power too seriously.

Whether you agree or not with Thai government officials and the Junta in criticizing the USA's recent comments about Thailand politics, there's no denying that intense anti-American sentiment seemed to ramp up suddenly after Russel's visit. Maybe it was the Junta's mantra for the last six months that the USA and the rest of the free world "understood" the Junta's overthrow of an elected government dulled our senses. it was just blatant propoganda - who cared? Even Gen. Prayuth's initial reaction to Russel's remarks was almost blasé.

I suspect this current anti-American blown-up drama might be part of a broader strategy to justify a rash action planned by NCPO that will shift Thailand further from restoration of democratic institutions in the name of national security. Perhaps the leadership will portray the nation as being unfairly beseiged from all Western-styled democracies and further realign Thailand towards nations whose ideologies are more forgiving and supportive of Thailand's oligarchy. This might be manifested in the extreme with foreign forces allowed to be stationed on Thai soil.

Reading this article I was wondering how snakes could be the cause for Hand, Foot and mouth disease. Then I realized that was part of an unrelated article.

Thank you Nation for keeping readers in suspense!

"barring public assembly within 150-metre radius of Parliament Building and Government House"

Yet, the military refused to help enforce the constitutional State of Emergency declared by the Yingluck regime to clear blocked highways, streets, and occuppied government facilities. The military had no concern when Suthep and company OCCUPPIED Government House and called it "his" government house.

I see the NCPO insisting this bill be enacted before the constitution is finished as it will be crucial for maintaining "national security" (for itself and its designated government). The NCPO doesn't really need NLA to pass sucha bill as under Article 44 of the Interim Charter, the NCPO can merely issue a directive that will have the force of law. But the facade of an "independent" legislative body approving the bill is apparently an important aspect of the Junta's leaderdhip style.

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This would not happen in my homeland in Mongolia, we are democratic not like here, going just like North Korea

## Its a long way to Ulaanbaatar

Its a long way to go.

Its long way to Ulaanbaatar

to the sweetest land I know

Good bye Rachadami farewell Siam square

Its long long way to Ulaanbaatar

But my heart is there##

Mongolian Food is the Best. It gives you a nice "Buuz."

"... the drafters had the interests of the general public in mind when they came up with the idea to merge the two."

The NLA/NRC/CDC march to the NCPO agenda for reforms. Several times we have seen suggestions made contrary to Junta interests get retracted by the Junta-approved "leadership" of the NRC/CDC. Considering the interests of the general public is only a happenstance and not a deliberate critical path to CDC's draft of the constitution. One might argue that the military would like NHRC pressure on trafficking weakened, if not removed completely, to protect any potential illegal behavior of the armed forces in support of trafficking.

The first-time arrest of a single naval officer for human trafficking activities tells volumes of what has been suspected for decades and alleged by international news media like Reuters. Recall that it was the Royal Thai Navy that brought defamation lawsuits against two Thai reporters for Reuters and threats of defamation lawsuits against Reuters itself. With at least one Ombudsman being a military flag officer appointed by General Prayuth last year, it doesn't require much imagination as to how much the Ombudsman might restrain NHRC after a merger.

The merger might also have an unexpected adverse affect on Thailand's economy. Thailand is currently listed as Tier 3 by the USA, largely related to its lack of efforts in deterring human trafficking. The update report is due in a month or so. Within the last two weeks the Junta has suddenly made several arrests for human trafficking including a naval officer, perhaps to support its agrument that it has new policies and procedures in place to aggressively address human trafficking.

But the merger of the NHRC into the Junta-led Ombudsman may negate such last-minute actions and motivate the USA to not rush to remove Thailand from Tier 3 at this time and adopt a "wait & see" posture. Such a precautionary action would be consistent with the Junta's continued delay of elections and return of democratic institutions to the nation. USA might then feel compelled to further motivate the Junta by imposing import restrictions on Thai seafood.

The USA has an interesting system of checks and balances wherein a political party gaining control of the legislative branch alone is not sufficient for it to control the government. The presidential system places a lot of power in one person but clearly the constitution makes it difficult for any one person or political party to control the entire government through a democratic process.

The Republicans are entitled to battle the POTUS on every issue to promote a congressional majority agenda. However, with POTUS and congressional elections coming in 2016, Republicans need to get legislation passed to prove to the electorate that they are effective and should remain the majority party. So at some point if they don't get Obama or a veto-proof Democrat support, they will reinforce the impression among the electorate that voting Republican is voting for inaction. And all Republican congressional gains will be reversed.

"killings and mass expulsions by both sides constituted elements of the crime of genocide, but the judges ruled that neither Serbia nor Croatia carried out the crimes with the "specific intent" to destroy targeted populations."

While the charge of genocide by Serbia against Croatia and Croatia against Serbia are separate and distinct with regard to facts and circumstance, the fact that the Court used the same logic for both to dismiss genocide against each seems to indicate that there was a mutual agreement between Serbia and Croatia to a finding for dismissal. Both countries have matured and co-existed peacefully for 20 years now with democratic societies. So the Court ruling might more reflect reconciliation between the two countries rather than delivery of justice. In essence, each country has given amnesty to the other.

"1,373 prospective jurors show that 68 percent already believe Tsarnaev is guilty"

What's the problem?

The defense can challenge those 933 prsopective jurors. According to the same survey, 440 prospective jurors do not already believe Tsarnaev is guilty. The jury needs only 12 jurors with maybe up to 6 alternates. The prospective juror pool is still sufficiently large enough for the defendent to get a fair jury trial. There's no grounds to move the trial for the sake of a fair trial.

Of course in Thailand there wouldn't be such an issue. There is no trial by jury. As is also in Italy and South Africa.

It is understandable.........farangs bigger bodies, farangs more <deleted> when visiting park toilets......have to charge more for cleaning alt=rolleyes.gif>

Aye...'tis less effort for Thais who toilet in the bushes.

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Obama is gutting the military back to pre WWII numbers, and now he wants more money to fight the ISIL? He's armed about half of them trying to put down Syria's leaders. He's a total loss as a military leader and should step down. Of course if he did, then we would have Joe Biden as President, and that may be even worse. I see no way out of this mess except to keep up wiping them out where they stand. And from what I hear, Iran is the biggest supporter of the ISIL and Obama is kissing their collective butts. Our Military leaders must have ulcers like you can't believe. width=20 alt=blink.png>

Your hearing may be impaired. Iran has been conducting air attacks against ISIL and advising Iraqi on ground assults. Then there was the recent failed ISIL suicide attack against a commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps inside Iraq. Iran wants to control Iraq and has no interest in a renegade extremist Islamic "state."

As far as US support for Syrian rebels, Obama has been criticized heavily by the Republicans (Senator McCain) as being too hesitant in arming the rebels. Half of the "rebels" are extremist Islamists who should not be getting US military support under any circumstance. Obama wouldn't even set up a no fly zone in Syria to protect rebels or the Syrian civilian population as the US did in Libya.

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8.8 billion dollars.

When I was a kid a millionaire was beyond belief.

Can anyone tell me how much WW2 cost the USA????

About $4 trillion in 2014 dollars. In comparison Apple is worth about $700 billion.

"Pool-bus operators in Bangkok are demanding 3 baht increase of fares for warm and cool buses with threat to stop service if their demand is not met."

This sounds like a job for Martial Law Man Prayuth! He'll give a quick and decisive warning to not publicly protest and write a subsidy check faster than ink can dry.

NEXT!

Unfortunately, Prayuth having the Japanese invest in a Thai rail system does little for the Thai economy. Great though for the Japanese economy. Thailand has more than adequate borrowing capability to issue its own treasury bills to self-finance infrastructure projects. Such a large infusion of capital into the Thai economy would drive economic growth for many industries.

Borrowing money from another country does not promote growth. On the Chinese rail project, the Junta is borrowing 80% of the total cost which means the Chinese will get a majority of the investment return until after 20 years when Thailand pays off its debt. It looks like Prayuth is trying the same financial arrangement with the Japanese. For the next 20 years Thailand will be just a consumer.