inutil

What i like about his resignation is that it suggests two things:

1. What i just wrote about - him screwing labour out of regaining their lost votes by falling on his sword (note to Little Englanders of the forum: his decision had nothing to do with losing the election, it was about consolidating the gains the SNP had made in formerly impenetrable labour strongholds).

2, What you just wrote - he'll be back, but in the same role that Brown played in this one. As soon as the next referendum comes (assuming labour and the tories put devo max on the back benches, its more a when, not if), he'll be out there making the case but as the elder statesman rather than the firebrand leader. It will be more effective for it.

Salmond is a brilliantly strategic thinker. He's a step ahead of the game almost all the time. He looked ragged in that last week. But until Brown stepped in with a positive vision, he was barely breaking a sweat. In fact it was just the sheer effort of mobilising a grassroots campaign that did him in. But the networks are now there and the infrastructure is built. He will have learned a lot and he will take it on board for round 2 when he comes back.

On that third point: Brown and Devo max. Again. I really think Brown wound them up a bit. He had his eyes right on one thing: a national left of center social democratic labour government in the UK. The frenzy of the Little Englanders on this forum for greater powers for England must be music to his ears. You cant make an omelette... England already has all the say in the economic direction of this country... and theyre actually agreeing to devolution and putting in place the mechanisms for the diffusion of power? Its hilarious watching them think this is in England's (well, the South East of England's) benefit. Long may they keep at it. The south east in its ire on the west loathian question and the Barnett formula are sacrificing their queen (westminster and south east controlled politics) for the sake of a couple of pawns. To do it they have to talk about the deprivation IN ENGLAND created by Westminster government policy which will only foster the resentment the North East already has for Westminster politics. Its so self-destructive, youd have to be incredibly stupid to fall for it. And they are. Again, Brown, a step ahead.

I bet Gordon Brown is crying into his breakfast :'(

Salmond was the Dr Evil to his Austin Powers. A brother (shit, spoilers!), a compatriot, and an arch enemy to be chased into the ground.

Salmond V Brown in 2016 was set to be a titanic battle for labour. Brown is best unfettered and without focus groups telling him how to be a normal human being. He's clearly not a normal human being. He's an asocial tower of rage and fury. Salmond is in many ways like him: the T-1000 sent from the future to go back to the past and do sums. He's a bit more human of course because he's a cheeky scamp who likes to cause a bit of mischief. Unlike Brown, his programming likely got scrambled in the time-jump making his AI think he actually was a real boy.

But Sturgeon? Common touch, left wing, sincere, diplomatic... she's Brown's kryptonite and he will know it. His comeback might be scuppered before it even begins.

What a bunch of Jellyfish. Scotland should have a referendum to change their name from: Scotland to Spineless/KissAssLand.

Quite, I'm embarrassed to be a Scot today - what a bunch of narrow-minded dumpties.

The front page pre referendum VOW is already being threatened with being renaged on,

watched a post result interview with William Hague and when asked about the promised

new revenue raising powers for the post referendum Scottish government and continuation

of the Barnett payment system he immediately said " oh well if there are new revenue raising

powers for the Scottish government we may have to adjust the Barnett system payment levels."

The ink is barely dry on the counting officers declaration papers and the Westminister rats are

up to their old lying and cheating ways, nothing new there then. @asterds of the highest order.

To be fair to the brave Scots voters, as apposed to the bigoted nationalist, I think very few if any changed their voting intentions due to what the 3 Westminster clowns were saying, the intelligent Scottish voters realised that any further Scottish subsidies would have to be endorsed by a parliament consisting of M.P's from all over the country and not the 3 unwise men.

The three unwise men all carrying with them an office of whips and of course the three line whip (which means attend and vote with your party, or sit on the back benches until we find a way to deselect/brief against you). If they want to pass legislation, they could... very very easily. Youre not talking a Major or Callaghan government held up by the prospect of a few bastards trying to force a no confidence motion in a soon to be (or already) minority government. Youre looking at around 630 out of a possible 650 votes. Only a declaration of war garners that kind of cross party potential.

Also, it doesnt matter who changed their minds, who didnt, nor who voted for independence and who didnt. To a man and woman, everybody in Scotland will be expecting that vow to be kept regardless of their own personal standpoint on the matter whilst inside the voting booth marking their cross for yes.

Scotland votes 'No' by 55.3 per cent: final result

EDINBURGH (AFP) - Scotland rejected independence from the United Kingdom by 55.3 per cent to 44.7 per cent, on a record 84.6 per cent turnout, final results showed Friday.

Official figures show 2,001,926 people voted to stay in the union and 1,617,989 voted to leave, with turnout beating the previous record for a UK vote of 84 per cent, set in the 1950 British general election.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Scotland-votes-No-by-55-3-per-cent-final-result-30243659.html

-- The Nation 2014-09-19

The reason the NO vote is far greater than opinion polls predicted is the intimidation that was being used by the Yes campaigners caused many to keep their intentions to themselves. This is the backfire on the bully campaigners with their graffiti, eggs, window smashing and verbal abuse. Serves you right.

oooooooorrrrr... polls had the yes vote at 47 and no at 53. Factor in a) margin of error plus the quiet vote for the status quo as many people (including myself remarked on - there was a point in the polling when Quebec was brought up endlessly), and you have an unsurprising result that has <deleted> all to do with terrified scottish people incapable of making themselves heard. The vote went as expected. Yes needed to be a good few percentage points above 50% consistently to even HOPE for a win. They could have pulled it off with a very late surge, but as i said 2 days ago, theyd failed to break through and had taken a beating in the final week of campaigning. So less of the nonsense and more of the actual observation of reality please.

If Salmond had campaigned using a clear and concise framework for transition and what would follow, with all the numbers adding up, Yes would have won. But he didn't. He used nationalist rhetoric instead.

The words "Nationalist rhetoric" here is a touch unfair. In a sense it was nationalist in that it accepted the argument categorically (and indeed defined its ENTIRE campaign around the notion) that this was a decision on whether Scotland was ready to vote yes to not only the benefits of self determination, but also own the potentially catastrophic initial results of independence. It was couched in nationalism in that it spoke of the Scottish people's enduring and collective capacity to rebuild their country and turn around the inevitable problems of independence. But nationalism in hills, glens, rob roy, shortbread and Curries Red Kola? Not so much.

Again, we've brought up the reasons as to why the White paper was just an SNP party political document long before the vote was even in. So theres no reason to retread that ground again. The scottish people knew that they werent voting for (or against) Salmond and the SNP, but rather more simply - and more seriously - self-determination. They knew that the real negotiations would only begin after an independence vote. And thats why the negativity of better together didnt resonate. They took Salmond and the SNP programme more seriously than they waranted. They fought a campaign based on strategies youd use in an election. In this case it was just about autonomy. And the only message they had was that it might be terrible. But Scotland knew this. It was GOING to be difficult. It was GOING to be arduous and serious. The consequences were right there. But it was just a simple question of whether it would be worth it for the price of Self-determination.

No. Apparently. But my money is on that intervention last week (christ! was it only last week?) having saved the No vote. The yes vote was about to surge. Gordon Brown in many ways, by pushing for devo max so hard, and offering that one positive reason gave hope to labour supporters looking at that one and only offer for change on the table and realising they didnt have to go all in. They could hedge. It saved the labour exodus to independence, and it also possibly saved the Scottish Labour Party from a rout in the Scottish Parliament Election and the General Election. Big Gordon saved the union. But he did it with the intention of ultimately transforming it. And that resonated with the wavering labour/independence voter in Scotland.

Maybe. All conjecture in the end. Maybe the sentiment for independence just never took off and never was seriously going to take off despite the indications otherwise. Perhaps in fact, the 51% was the highest possible number the YES campaign could ever hope to get considering the intransigence of the pensioners and of course the more conservative parts of Scotland. Still, im fine that no won. Not ecstatic, but i want change and reform. If im not getting it through independence then ill settle for the wholesale break up of the UK constitutionally instead

And yes mad English supporters blaming scotland for everything. Im right behind you when you start shouting about powers for England and the regions. Just know that i feel absolutely in my heart that youre going to get yours when it comes. Not from Scotland, but from the regions of England youve ignored the last 30 years. England is mad as hell. And its not at Scotland.

Oooh, ill still be voting to stay in the EU as well. For the reasons that in fact the No campaign threw towards scotland. I look forward to recycling the anti-independence lines

Scotland votes 'No' by 55.3 per cent: final result

EDINBURGH (AFP) - Scotland rejected independence from the United Kingdom by 55.3 per cent to 44.7 per cent, on a record 84.6 per cent turnout, final results showed Friday.

Official figures show 2,001,926 people voted to stay in the union and 1,617,989 voted to leave, with turnout beating the previous record for a UK vote of 84 per cent, set in the 1950 British general election.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Scotland-votes-No-by-55-3-per-cent-final-result-30243659.html

-- The Nation 2014-09-19

The reason the NO vote is far greater than opinion polls predicted is the intimidation that was being used by the Yes campaigners caused many to keep their intentions to themselves. This is the backfire on the bully campaigners with their graffiti, eggs, window smashing and verbal abuse. Serves you right.

oooooooorrrrr... polls had the yes vote at 47 and no at 53. Factor in i) margin of error plus ii) the quiet vote for the status quo as many people (including myself) remarked on (and made a bit of a big deal out of), and you have an unsurprising result that has chuff all to do with terrified scottish people incapable of making themselves heard and everything to do with standard behaviour in a referendum/election. The vote went as expected. Yes needed to be a good few percentage points above 50% consistently to even HOPE for a win. They could have pulled it off with a very late surge, but as i said 2 days ago, theyd failed to break through and had taken a beating in the final week of campaigning. So less of the nonsense and more of the actual observation of reality please.

Eugh, a whole night of no real news and having to just sit on my thumbs. Lucky ive been at work for the brunt of it without access to the net. The boredom would have killed me. What i need is a 16 hour coma so i can be around for the results coming in around 10am tomorrow (9am thailand i think). Ah, its tough. heres literally nothing to argue about any more. Um... oooh! i know, why cant i beat Berwick rangers with Clyde on Football manager handheld DESPITE being second in the league, then sitting bottom and me having knocked Dundee out of the Scottish Cup 5th round? No matter what they just launch a barage of attacks. I got beat by them 8-2 on one occasion. Its getting ridiculous. No matter what strategy i use, theyre balanced 5 man mid strat just overwhelms my far better players. Ill fix that then.

I think Salmond will be alright. The only thing worrying him is the prospect of Gordon Brown as the new leader of the Scottish Labour Party. He might even retire before the 2016 election. Either way he came thhhiiiiiiiiissssss close to delivering something no one would have thought he could deliver even a month ago. He reignited a political conversation in scotland and restored a certain degree of pride in its people to have such a positive debate. He will come out of this smelling of roses either way. Casualties will be the scottish labour party, and the lib dems. The pro union tories might have now seen at least a bit of momentum as the natural voice and protectors of the union.

Brown will stop the rot in labour though should he return. If he doesnt, then theyre screwed for a generation until they find someone of his caliber either in scotland or westminster. Mistrust in the scottish labour party right now is about as high as its ever been. When my aploitical mum is tearing up her card NOW even after the debacle of new labour and the rise and rise of the SNP, then theyve clearly screwed up. Tommy Sheridan has also come out of this kinda well

Panic obviously

Im kinda torn. Part of me believes that without this interjection momentum was just about to take off for the YES campaign. Theyd just crossed the single most important threshold for the first time: plausibility, and i think without such an offer on the table the option of Independence versus Status quo would have led to an exodus from the labour support. They want change. No doubt about it. But they dont necessarily want Salmond. But this is their one shot, so perhaps it was time to join the winning side.

The devo max option will have at least made them stop and think.

The other part of me however believes that it was just wild panic and the interjection didnt even need to happen. You see, the YES campaign had just crossed the single most important threshold for the first time: plausibility, and i think that this would have led to plenty of people saying to themselves "hang on, this isnt a fun party any more. This shit might actually happen!

The terrifying prospect that Scotland would actually vote for something out of pure spite and sticking it to England and Westminster might seem a laugh when the polls are running at 40% chance for change, but at 51% maybe its getting a bit 'real'.

So no idea. Ill leave it to the historians to decide. What i can say though is that both will have factored in the momentary halting of the YES campaign momentum for the No campaign to actually catch their breath and recover.

An interesting analysis. I think it will have more impact on waverers (Labour or otherwise) than you think. Either way, I predict a wider 'no' victory than expected.

If i can add to it, what strikes me most about it is that it comes off more like Holyrood stump speech. It really felt more like an attack on the SNP than an attack on independence if that makes sense. He TORE INTO the SNP policies. I know in many ways that thats all we;ve got, but my feeling was he maybe spent a bit over long campaigning against the SNP that he could have spent outlining the benefits of the union. It felt like the first shot of the next election. Clearly hes going to be the SLPs new leader, and honestly they need him badly. Theyve been atrocious.

Well, like everything else it depends on tone. But the tone of the woman in the adverts he used, it basically means F***OFF!

Now i dont hide my love for Gordon Brown. I liked that clip before i even watched it, so confident was i that I would. I wasnt disappointed... with some of it

Remember im a yes voter, but im also a pinko leftist dyed in the wool west coast of scotland labour supporter. Independence is my second choice by quite some way. My first choice is devo max. It might even be devo super max whatever that is. Basically my first choice is the one that gives the Scottish parliament as much control of its budget as it can cope with whilst keeping the union in place. I also agree that England, Wales and Ireland should have similar controls. Basically disperse as much power from westminster as possible thanks. Let the regions hold the federal government in check.

But what i want to talk about is Browns speech and why it wont turn votes. It could have if it had stopped about 5 minutes in. Up to then it was a phenomenal speech that ticked every box a labour supporter wanted to hear. There was play to the Welfare state, to the ties of British socialism and to the union out of which these things came. Now this is honey to the ears of a lefty labour supporter like myself. It was stirring, accurate and spoke of a common shared cause that would continue to lead and bring change for all of our benefits. And as ive remarked, this isnt the solitary burden of Scotland. The attack on the risks was also great. It wasnt wishy washy. It was direct, clear and very forceful. I think the one on the raised prices in the supermarkets had me grimacing a bit mind you. Supermarkets set prices on their market and what their competitors are doing. Market forces seem always forgotten about when people want to make silly points.

But then he started hitting the 'talking points' and it just seemed beneath him to be honest. He looked FURIOUS and could barely contain the contempt he has for the SNP throughout, but the latter half of the speech had me checking off the past weeks 'themes' of the better together campaign. There was also VERY little on the greater powers for scotland after a no vote. I was disappointed he didnt explicate his vision and what hes been (by all accounts) pushing very hard for.

All in all, if its an appeal directed at the base of the better together movement, sure, it was excellent. But aimed at the labour voters who MIGHT (in his own words) be wavering, it wont have been enough. Theres some meat in it. but much of it feels a little empty. Pity, because the guardian feed of it had brown achieving the formerly impossible and rousing even the English media to applaud him. If i was his teacher, id give him a 7 or an 8 out of 10 on it. Lots of recycled lines and talking points. A strong and original start, but tapered off toward the end into soundbites and hollowness.

Alright then, heres my counter argument.

I lived in Kilmarnock as a kid. it was a nice little town with lots to do and a vibrant little center you could go shopping. I moved away around the age of 10. I came back at the age of 20 (around 1995), to see nothing but boarded up shops and a dead on its arse city center. I then moved to Jesmond, and every day i enjoyed the absolute pleasure of the rich Middle classes as i walked through the dene. Clearly the toon was doing fine. I absolutely saw all of it and from Tynemouth to High Heaton all the way to even Fenham, i can tell you that Newcastle was in wonderful shape. Im sure you want to talk about Benwell, scotswood, and the like. But i dont know what they are. Clearly Newcastle was brilliant and scotland was a crap-sandwich. Definitely no cherry picking involved.

Dude, scotland has/had its own areas of deprivation. Just like everywhere else in the UK in the 90s, youd find them in the places reliant on former heavy industries and going through serious economic transitions. Its very nice driving through the borders, just as its very nice walking down the Royal Mile. Its a lovely country full of beautiful scenery, but to argue it doesnt have its share of poverty is silly. Its like driving around the North East in the same period and popping into Alnwick and Morpeth (or even just Grey Street in the toon) and saying "well, this is a lovely area. Clearly the idea of Northern poverty is a touch exaggerated."

You might be cherry picking a wee bit there.

Who do you think youre convincing though? Lets assume youre right. Lets assume that scottish oil has only 40 years left. Lets assume that the BoE gets to control the financial levers as the borrower of last resort. And lets assume that the EU application takes 5 years (and spain threaten to veto it purely on the grounds that its trying to prevent its own independence movement taking off).

Do you think that your typical scottish person is voting yes because they want their own scrooge mcduck money pit? This isnt a vote for a windfall. Its a vote fully aware that the break up of the union comes with some terrifying consequences to an independent scottish economy. And why do they know this? Because better together have been banging this drum since day 1. And look how well its turning out for them? It took the intervention of Gordon Brown and the prospect of federalism to halt what was becoming an unstoppable momentum taking root in the alleged SUPPORTERS of the better together movement. They have been completely turned off at the whole scale doom mongering. Every person out there knows already that this vote has consequences. And they arent short term positive ones. But the ship will be brought back on track in the medium to long term and thereafter we'll have not only a similar (if not, better) economy, but will also be able to make our own decisions on our own policy and programmes. We will be independent.

Im trying hard not to slip into evangelism here, but how many nations fail following independence, how many of them return (mondays YES talking point), and how likely, HONESTLY, is it that an oil rich nation with its own side industries and global exports that has the infrastructure, education, and business acumen of one of the most important first world economies in the world are suddenly going to flush it down the pan for the sake of some kind of brazen FREEEDUM!!! ideology? Im going to hazard a guess and say, none. Not a single remote chance. Not only will independence bring a voice to the left of Scotland, it will be matched by the resurgent right cut free from their programs in England. Every Scottish person on the day of a yes vote (no matter how they vote) will roll up their sleeves, grab a bucket or a pen and get to work. Once theres work to be done, theres work to be done.

Okay, maybe i am sounding a bit evangelical. I just think the negativity misses the reason why we're neck and neck. If you cant figure out what it is yet that scotland are actually voting on (independence, not the political platform of the SNP or the alex salmond cult of personality), youre prone to misunderstanding the warning signs on what it means for the UK as a whole. Because yes or no, this is just the beginning of a long conversation about what it means to be British in the 21st century.

We're voting for independence now....I think still it will be close....but I reckon YES will swing it on Thursday.

That makes both sides YES and NO thinking the same,have a look at the odds given by the Bookies,they usually get the big forecast correct! and it's more than a 1 or 2 % margin!

look at the no Facebook page poll....that is interesting.....

Not everyone has fakebook -- can you at least post a screenshot for us lesser mortals ?

Again, it wouldnt reflect much anyone didnt already know:

Over 50s are predominantly no leaning

Under 50s are predominantly yes leaning.

Social media is certainly still the majority preserve of the under 50s. There was a report (well, as reporty as it gets for social media), that overwhelming tweets about #indyref were pro independence. No surprise there. Its been brilliant seeing people you never expected tap into all of this to be part of the conversation. But its an echo chamber to some degree and one must always keep that in mind, particularly when the main targets in these last moments are pensioners and tapping into their concerns. As i mentioned, Gordon Browns jab at the call from Salmond to pop round your grannies and tell them about the yes vote simply reflects this (he told the pensioners to tell the young about the wars instead and educate them about the shared perils we overcame). Its not meant to be taken toooooo seriously. Its a jab at the cynical nature of Salmonds own ridiculous point. But they are retaining their support in those groups. The only other main target for possible affiliation switch (the West coast labour - ie. socialist labour), are also being hit with an NHS leaked document and of course the devo max 'vow'.

So YES is in trouble. Itl take a strong showing on the final day to turn this back around. Its not impossible by any means. All they need to do is convince the Scottish people that its worth the punt. If i can flip-flop on my voting allegiance despite being convinced every other day, then im not alone. And i dont think im part of that 7%. Im part of the rest of the ABSOLUTELY SURE voters completely certain of how im going to vote, until im not. Im still voting yes right now (well, would be), but its a less certain yes than it was just 48 hours ago. Mad stuff to start paying out already to be honest. It just takes one solid hit to land and the YES vote carries the momentum into polling day. I still remember the sunshine feeling in 1997 when we all went in to cast our votes. Its all it takes. And to be honest, the "once in a lifetime chance to affect real change for your children and your grandchildren" is going to be a strong emotional appeal. The no camp have only got more negativity and worry that scotland is going down the crapper. And if they play that one a bit heavy, theyre at risk of losing labour support (labour wants a positive vision). Only the YES campaign can offer the bright sunshine in this regard. And again, if it takes seed, there could be wobbles on polling day.

Its been a bad couple of days for the YES camp to be honest. Theyve been getting hit hard on economics. I dont know why these punches are suddenly landing (i mean, lets face it, theres a case to be met, but Salmonds been quiet deft at (not)answering them). Hes looking incredibly tired as well. Brown has been savaging him on the NHS and also slightly taking the piss out of Salmonds call to get your granny to vote yes. Further, the devo max thing has reared its ugly head. Its not that people believe it'll happen. They clearly dont. But youre talking a few thousand votes to swing either way for an historic upset or just enough of a buffer to get through the finish line. Every vote matters. And devo max is something positive at the end of the day for the Scottish people DESPITE the problems it is clearly going to face should a no vote happen.

Finally, the no campaign are really making the intimidation claims stick hard. Monday they had devo max and the economy. Tuesday they went after the "NHS is safe in the SNPs hands" and voter intimidation (not helped by even Ed Milliband being heckled). And all of these punches are landing.

Salmond is looking exhausted. He's been objectively brilliant theres no doubt about it. Hes weathered not only the entire forces of the british political establishment and the media. But hes also managed to create a vision out of total unknowns (not his fault, and i defend him avowedly on this point - he cant offer a stable platform when Westminster is unlikely to offer him anything at all to discuss - they cant even promise their own platform of devomax for heaven sake, how could they promise negotiations on a shared currency?) and defended it furiously. Hes been a hero of this campaign and ignited a political consciousness in the apparently apathetic and selfish youth who were supposed to be stuck in their iphones. The effects will be there for a generation and you may even see a new labour vision emerge from its ashes. There are clear reasons to be hopeful. Such a pity though that its someone like Milliband to carry the fight :/ Ah well, i did say it was generational

Still hopeful of a yes vote, i should say. They might have been bouyed by the polls bringing things back to a 2% swing (from the 4% on Saturday/Sunday and well within the margin of error). But its a more sedate hope now, personally speaking. Salmonds out of the race i think. So its up to the force of will of the Scottish people to carry this over the finish line now.

You forget that a large number of your English voted in the current government transam.

We know its a mess too....and given the chance to leave this mess behind its an easy choice.

Smokie does have a point.

Thing is right now it looks like frying pan into the fire because of zero advanced planning.

That is why we will set a framework for independence after a YES vote.

We are not planning to start building a wall on Friday morning.

Surely you don't think we are as stupid as the Westminster government thought we were.........?

It's not you building the wall I'm worried about. I think Westminster could get very nasty over this.

There needed to be agreements in place for painless transition before the vote.

An interesting question then... what do you feel about the devo max 'vow'? What on earth are Scottish people voting for exactly? On the one hand, no possible legislative information or certainty. And on the other hand, no possible legislative information or certainty

???

What to do, what to do? A yes vote is a leap of faith, a no vote is a leap of faith.

???

Apparently, as argued by all three main parties, there is in fact no status quo option. Not that thats a bad thing, i always felt they were a bit... English. Asking them to come sing a song might just be as bonkers as asking David Beckham to emotionally appeal to scottish Union, speaking of the pride he felt captaining his country.

i used to live in shizuoka. A 5.6 on the Shindo scale is nothing in Japan (though remember its about 1 larger than the richter scale if i recall). You get one or two of those somewhere in the country just about every month.

Fortunately its North of Tokyo. If it was suraga bay area then its panic stations. In case you dont know... no one was expecting that earthquake off sendai. But japan HAS been bracing itself for its own "big one". It comes pretty regularly every 150 or so years. And its now overdue by about 12 years. Laughably there was a nuclear power plant almost right on top of the expected epicenter called Hamaoka. Japan is very good with earthquake safety. Indeed the one takeaway from the 2011 disaster was just how well buildings had stood up to the quake prior to the tsunami. However, around 2006 there was a massive scandal about earthquake safety documents being falsified around atami area. Likely it was shizuoka wide. Any building built before 1990 may be culpable to the expected earthquake. And as someone who lived on the 6th floor of an 8 floor danchi apartment built mainly for Brazilian workers in the 70s, the slightest tremor had me convinced i was about to die

Anyways, want some fun reading go look up "Tokai Earthquake" and impress your friends when you successfully predict it as one of the next big earthquakes in our lifetime.

I'd agree with the elusiveness of the definition of democracy, but let's not beat about the bush -- Scotland is just about to possibly declare UDI. Remember how that worked for Rhodesia?

Having said that -- remember that the Union is based on conquest and coercion -- it was not a happy alliance - check the history books written by Scottish historians. The Scots at that time and since, over the last 300-odd years - in their usual pragmatic way - accepted their situation, but now they have a chance to speak. The ties with England during the last 75-odd years do not lessen their dream of independence. Scottish regiments will make a superb defense force, already in place and ready to help out NATO; EU; etc as needed from day one.

UK made a huge blunder when they forced this YES/NO vote -- devomax would have won the day hands down -- but Westminster MPs' egos got in the way For that reason alone I hope Scotland goes independent and does some serious horse trading during the division of spoils. Westminster needs a serious lesson - they are not going to be holding all the aces (taxation) for long. Come on Cornwall, Yorkshire, et al -- go for devomax for the regions and strip Westminster of it's much abused power!

P.S. Catalonia, Brittany and others can do it too The EU will change if all the members are smaller, and there's lots of them

Perhaps Cameron didn't want to include devomax on the ticket as he knew that many English people are not too happy as things stand at the moment,what with all the preferential treatment being given to Scotland, both politically and economically.

One thing does worry me in regards to the (hopefully) negotiations, that the UK will not stand strong against the Scottish demands. So far all the three main parties have declared their intent not to share the £. I would envisage that if any of these parties went back on their words the English,N,I and Welsh electorate would never forgive them. As for the EU they have already stated that entry and submission to Brussels will be a slow and drawn out affair.

In the meantime many thousands of well paid jobs will flow south, this could well be a economic bonanza for Yorkshire and other less prosperous regions.

Absolutely correct. And it reinforces exactly what i said about the PLP above. None of them believed scotland would seriously go independent! theres just TOO MUCH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY involved. Theyd have to be absolutely stupid to buy into it! So why risk our political necks by offering them MORE power? We;d have to be stupid! Its totally unnecessary.

And so we have a 50/50 with momentum clearly in the yes camp less than a week to go until polling day and with every offer now on the table.

That 1 youguv poll showed that the UK was bluffing. The panic as they all came north of the border to love bomb scotland and offer us promises of definitely more powers will have been a massive neon sign to every yes voter that just maybe, these non-negotiable things, in the cold reality of September 19th, might just be suddenly open for discussion after all. The UK blinked first.

Its backfired about as bad as you can expect. It came too early. People have had their moment of doubt now. They should have been having it on Thursday.

A Very Good post, I suspect everything you say is spot on, now can you give us you're thoughts on WHY more people are deciding on a "YES". For instance are they basing their judgment on facts supplied by unbiased observers, by the Nationalist argument or on what they perceive as the negativity of the "NO" side.

One of my friends once got it in her head i was a massive liar. The fact of me trying to explain i wasnt in fact a massive liar just proved what a massive liar i was and why i couldnt be trusted.

I think that might be it

The most interesting is the labour supporters switching. And i really think it stems from the most simple of reasons: they currently hate the PLP. It needs to pander to right wing sentiment to stay relevant in England and win the next election, and that strategy not only cost them the Scottish election in 2011 (a fair sacrifice), but its also costing them the referendum (an unexpected sacrifice). I think they really thought that all would be forgiven by their supporters on something as big as independence and we'd 'do the sensible thing' because (as ive often said) the PLP is the greatest hope for equity and fairness in the UK. Theres no labour supporter i think who does not believe that to be true. They might feel its gone a bit wayward, but its more like an elastic band. Theyll spring back soon enough. But its been taxing waiting for them to do so. The death of John Smith was an enormous blow. Perhaps the elastic just snapped and this referendum is the first time theyve realised. Only now theyre sort of stuck.

In their heart of hearts i really believe that THEY believe in federalism as a way to really move the country forward and bring us a more fair and equitable distribution of power. But they cant deliver it without sacrificing the swing voters in the south east. So they cant seriously offer it. They can make noises about it or guarded statements. But it unravels under even the lightest of scrutiny. Tories have already rubbished the idea. John Redwood is taking great delight in forcing conditions on it. Ed Balls yesterday argued it would be potentially unworkable and throw up a more pressing form of the West Lothian question when trying to pass UK budgets as a labour party without scottish MPs. Andrew Neil tore into it yesterday as well. If that clip starts making the rounds, you can bet a few of the hangers on will be thinking a vote for no IS just a vote to keep things exactly as they are. And thats not the message the no camp wants to send at all. Especially to floating labour supporters who seem to hold the balance of power.

Basically its a collapse in trust of the PLP (and an absolute collapse in trust with the Scottish Labour Party). And they only just realised it last week. The worst thing is they know that its not just in Scotland. Scotland is a wake up call to them, but theyre riding high in the polls... so what to do? They cant do shit. they either let Scotland free through not offering anything to their supporters or they lose the next election by spooking the south east through intervention. The perception might well be that theyre leaving their supporters to fend for themselves and giving them nothing to defend themselves with against the optimism, vigor and positivity of the Yes campaign. So theyll switch. Many will stay of course. But enough will just think its time to break with the PLP and go their own way with their own labour party.

Maybe Who knows? Certainly not me.

Its a big tent. IIts up to the left to set out its agenda and focus on positive change. For me, Its a miss-step for the PLP to mirror this rhetoric for fear of losing votes in the swing districts through being soft on terrorists or soft on immigrants or soft on... anything at all. Its disappointing to see labour peddle this. But lets face it, despite how disgusted i am with them, theyre leading comfortably in the polls and look on course to be the next party of government. So it disgusts me. But people want it. I cant tell where to honestly direct my ire. And again, its this which alienates me from the PLP.

Its good that theyre winning. But its awful that theyre winning based on rhetoric and policy i find morally abhorrent. Just one more disconnect to add to the list alienating a west coast labour supporter from the parliamentary labour party and my belief that they offer the strongest chance for real change in the UK. As for the SNP and nationalism. As i said above, theyre welcome to whatever opinions they like. I just hope they dont let it out to play in the run up. Its not an error we're focusing on Salmond and the policies of the SNP for an independent scotland. They dont play well to the labour vote. The more its about the SNP the more labour supporters will feel repulsed by the Yes vote. But like many of the strategies of better together its just not playing out how they thought. If anything, as we get to the closing stages, the idea he might be delivering something that scotland is starting to think it might actually want could even be boosting his popularity across the parties. He wont win in 2016 mind you. Unless he fails. Then he'll be re-elected no problem.

Where are all the NO supporters?

Many of my family are voting no for selfish financial reasons but very reluctant to broadcast it. Are all NO supporters ashamed? If not, they should be, their relatives that fought in Bannockburn will be turning in their graves.

Thank you! The post we have all been waiting for. Living proof of the idiotic nature of this referendum. You complain at your relatives for voting no for economic reasons whilst you think it appropriate to put a nation into depression and tear apart a successful union because of a battle 700 years ago. If i was allowed to use expletives on here there would follow a paragraph of them. Please tell me your reference to Bannockburn was in jest? I can barely prevent myself from saying what i want to. Utterly unbelievable.

So one person you disagree and have been waiting for something like 50 pages of posts is 'living proof' of the 'idiotic nature of the referendum'? I dont want to drop some math here, but one post out of ooooooooh, 1200 (the combined number of posts on both threads) are not odds in your favour here to prove anything at all about the referendum. In fact, they might well point to the actual constructive nature of the discussion that its taken this long for you to FINALLY come across this point so you can declare the whole thing an absurdity.

Also, people can have whatever the hell priorities they like. I think your fear mongering about the collapsing education system within 10 years of independence is as hilarious as it is ludicrous. It wouldnt stop me voting no though (and inadvertently allying myself with you on the day if needs be). Ive already said that the lack of braveheart and FREEDUM!!!! has been a great thing for this whole affair given that labour supporters would find it cheap sentimentalism (well, not THEIR brand of sentimentalism). Still, it doesnt mean your life long SNP supporter is somehow barred from bringing it up as a PERSONAL motivation and inspiration on why they want to vote the way they do. I think the UKIP thing is also nonsense and built on fear mongering. But if people want to vote Farange, then so be it. Its up to the other parties to find out why people would even vote for that, and either show them theyre wrong, let them hang themselves with their own rope, or offer a better vision.

Labour in scotland would love nothing more right now than for the ugly face of nationalism to emerge in these debates. It might just give them their Kinnock in Sheffield moment. And it almost did yesterday at the BBC. Passions are heightening, and the SNP could still mess it all up with misplaced Nationalism. So hold strong my friend you might find that the cultivation of Braveheart works to deliver the election to the No campaign (given that their fear and trembling has done nothing but pass the burden of momentum to the optimism of the yes campaign for the past few weeks).

You mean you want that thieving hypocrite Brown running an Independent Scotland?????????????????????????????????

Me personally. Absolutely! But the nice thing is that im not the king. Theres no royal degree here. Im one voter. So are you. He has to make his case in the end to the Scottish people and theyll decide for themselves. I think honestly, he'll be welcomed with open arms though.