
inutil
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Posts posted by inutil
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Dude, scotland has/had its own areas of deprivation. Just like everywhere else in the UK in the 90s, youd find them in the places reliant on former heavy industries and going through serious economic transitions. Its very nice driving through the borders, just as its very nice walking down the Royal Mile. Its a lovely country full of beautiful scenery, but to argue it doesnt have its share of poverty is silly. Its like driving around the North East in the same period and popping into Alnwick and Morpeth (or even just Grey Street in the toon) and saying "well, this is a lovely area. Clearly the idea of Northern poverty is a touch exaggerated."
You might be cherry picking a wee bit there.
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Who do you think youre convincing though? Lets assume youre right. Lets assume that scottish oil has only 40 years left. Lets assume that the BoE gets to control the financial levers as the borrower of last resort. And lets assume that the EU application takes 5 years (and spain threaten to veto it purely on the grounds that its trying to prevent its own independence movement taking off).
Do you think that your typical scottish person is voting yes because they want their own scrooge mcduck money pit? This isnt a vote for a windfall. Its a vote fully aware that the break up of the union comes with some terrifying consequences to an independent scottish economy. And why do they know this? Because better together have been banging this drum since day 1. And look how well its turning out for them? It took the intervention of Gordon Brown and the prospect of federalism to halt what was becoming an unstoppable momentum taking root in the alleged SUPPORTERS of the better together movement. They have been completely turned off at the whole scale doom mongering. Every person out there knows already that this vote has consequences. And they arent short term positive ones. But the ship will be brought back on track in the medium to long term and thereafter we'll have not only a similar (if not, better) economy, but will also be able to make our own decisions on our own policy and programmes. We will be independent.
Im trying hard not to slip into evangelism here, but how many nations fail following independence, how many of them return (mondays YES talking point), and how likely, HONESTLY, is it that an oil rich nation with its own side industries and global exports that has the infrastructure, education, and business acumen of one of the most important first world economies in the world are suddenly going to flush it down the pan for the sake of some kind of brazen FREEEDUM!!! ideology? Im going to hazard a guess and say, none. Not a single remote chance. Not only will independence bring a voice to the left of Scotland, it will be matched by the resurgent right cut free from their programs in England. Every Scottish person on the day of a yes vote (no matter how they vote) will roll up their sleeves, grab a bucket or a pen and get to work. Once theres work to be done, theres work to be done.
Okay, maybe i am sounding a bit evangelical.
I just think the negativity misses the reason why we're neck and neck. If you cant figure out what it is yet that scotland are actually voting on (independence, not the political platform of the SNP or the alex salmond cult of personality), youre prone to misunderstanding the warning signs on what it means for the UK as a whole. Because yes or no, this is just the beginning of a long conversation about what it means to be British in the 21st century.
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look at the no Facebook page poll....that is interesting.....We're voting for independence now....I think still it will be close....but I reckon YES will swing it on Thursday.
That makes both sides YES and NO thinking the same,have a look at the odds given by the Bookies,they usually get the big forecast correct! and it's more than a 1 or 2 % margin!
Not everyone has fakebook -- can you at least post a screenshot for us lesser mortals ?
Again, it wouldnt reflect much anyone didnt already know:
Over 50s are predominantly no leaning
Under 50s are predominantly yes leaning.
Social media is certainly still the majority preserve of the under 50s. There was a report (well, as reporty as it gets for social media), that overwhelming tweets about #indyref were pro independence. No surprise there. Its been brilliant seeing people you never expected tap into all of this to be part of the conversation. But its an echo chamber to some degree and one must always keep that in mind, particularly when the main targets in these last moments are pensioners and tapping into their concerns. As i mentioned, Gordon Browns jab at the call from Salmond to pop round your grannies and tell them about the yes vote simply reflects this (he told the pensioners to tell the young about the wars instead and educate them about the shared perils we overcame). Its not meant to be taken toooooo seriously. Its a jab at the cynical nature of Salmonds own ridiculous point. But they are retaining their support in those groups. The only other main target for possible affiliation switch (the West coast labour - ie. socialist labour), are also being hit with an NHS leaked document and of course the devo max 'vow'.
So YES is in trouble. Itl take a strong showing on the final day to turn this back around. Its not impossible by any means. All they need to do is convince the Scottish people that its worth the punt. If i can flip-flop on my voting allegiance despite being convinced every other day, then im not alone. And i dont think im part of that 7%. Im part of the rest of the ABSOLUTELY SURE voters completely certain of how im going to vote, until im not. Im still voting yes right now (well, would be), but its a less certain yes than it was just 48 hours ago. Mad stuff to start paying out already to be honest. It just takes one solid hit to land and the YES vote carries the momentum into polling day. I still remember the sunshine feeling in 1997 when we all went in to cast our votes. Its all it takes. And to be honest, the "once in a lifetime chance to affect real change for your children and your grandchildren" is going to be a strong emotional appeal. The no camp have only got more negativity and worry that scotland is going down the crapper. And if they play that one a bit heavy, theyre at risk of losing labour support (labour wants a positive vision). Only the YES campaign can offer the bright sunshine in this regard. And again, if it takes seed, there could be wobbles on polling day.
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Its been a bad couple of days for the YES camp to be honest. Theyve been getting hit hard on economics. I dont know why these punches are suddenly landing (i mean, lets face it, theres a case to be met, but Salmonds been quiet deft at (not)answering them). Hes looking incredibly tired as well. Brown has been savaging him on the NHS and also slightly taking the piss out of Salmonds call to get your granny to vote yes. Further, the devo max thing has reared its ugly head. Its not that people believe it'll happen. They clearly dont. But youre talking a few thousand votes to swing either way for an historic upset or just enough of a buffer to get through the finish line. Every vote matters. And devo max is something positive at the end of the day for the Scottish people DESPITE the problems it is clearly going to face should a no vote happen.
Finally, the no campaign are really making the intimidation claims stick hard. Monday they had devo max and the economy. Tuesday they went after the "NHS is safe in the SNPs hands" and voter intimidation (not helped by even Ed Milliband being heckled). And all of these punches are landing.
Salmond is looking exhausted. He's been objectively brilliant theres no doubt about it. Hes weathered not only the entire forces of the british political establishment and the media. But hes also managed to create a vision out of total unknowns (not his fault, and i defend him avowedly on this point - he cant offer a stable platform when Westminster is unlikely to offer him anything at all to discuss - they cant even promise their own platform of devomax for heaven sake, how could they promise negotiations on a shared currency?) and defended it furiously. Hes been a hero of this campaign and ignited a political consciousness in the apparently apathetic and selfish youth who were supposed to be stuck in their iphones. The effects will be there for a generation and you may even see a new labour vision emerge from its ashes. There are clear reasons to be hopeful. Such a pity though that its someone like Milliband to carry the fight :/ Ah well, i did say it was generational
Still hopeful of a yes vote, i should say. They might have been bouyed by the polls bringing things back to a 2% swing (from the 4% on Saturday/Sunday and well within the margin of error). But its a more sedate hope now, personally speaking. Salmonds out of the race i think. So its up to the force of will of the Scottish people to carry this over the finish line now.
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It's not you building the wall I'm worried about. I think Westminster could get very nasty over this.
That is why we will set a framework for independence after a YES vote.
Smokie does have a point.You forget that a large number of your English voted in the current government transam.
We know its a mess too....and given the chance to leave this mess behind its an easy choice.
Thing is right now it looks like frying pan into the fire because of zero advanced planning.
We are not planning to start building a wall on Friday morning.
Surely you don't think we are as stupid as the Westminster government thought we were.........?
There needed to be agreements in place for painless transition before the vote.
An interesting question then... what do you feel about the devo max 'vow'? What on earth are Scottish people voting for exactly? On the one hand, no possible legislative information or certainty. And on the other hand, no possible legislative information or certainty
???
What to do, what to do? A yes vote is a leap of faith, a no vote is a leap of faith.
???
Apparently, as argued by all three main parties, there is in fact no status quo option. Not that thats a bad thing, i always felt they were a bit... English. Asking them to come sing a song might just be as bonkers as asking David Beckham to emotionally appeal to scottish Union, speaking of the pride he felt captaining his country.
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i used to live in shizuoka. A 5.6 on the Shindo scale is nothing in Japan (though remember its about 1 larger than the richter scale if i recall). You get one or two of those somewhere in the country just about every month.
Fortunately its North of Tokyo. If it was suraga bay area then its panic stations. In case you dont know... no one was expecting that earthquake off sendai. But japan HAS been bracing itself for its own "big one". It comes pretty regularly every 150 or so years. And its now overdue by about 12 years. Laughably there was a nuclear power plant almost right on top of the expected epicenter called Hamaoka. Japan is very good with earthquake safety. Indeed the one takeaway from the 2011 disaster was just how well buildings had stood up to the quake prior to the tsunami. However, around 2006 there was a massive scandal about earthquake safety documents being falsified around atami area. Likely it was shizuoka wide. Any building built before 1990 may be culpable to the expected earthquake. And as someone who lived on the 6th floor of an 8 floor danchi apartment built mainly for Brazilian workers in the 70s, the slightest tremor had me convinced i was about to die
Anyways, want some fun reading go look up "Tokai Earthquake" and impress your friends when you successfully predict it as one of the next big earthquakes in our lifetime.
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I'd agree with the elusiveness of the definition of democracy, but let's not beat about the bush -- Scotland is just about to possibly declare UDI. Remember how that worked for Rhodesia?
Having said that -- remember that the Union is based on conquest and coercion -- it was not a happy alliance - check the history books written by Scottish historians.
The Scots at that time and since, over the last 300-odd years - in their usual pragmatic way - accepted their situation, but now they have a chance to speak. The ties with England during the last 75-odd years do not lessen their dream of independence. Scottish regiments will make a superb defense force, already in place and ready to help out NATO; EU; etc as needed from day one.
UK made a huge blunder when they forced this YES/NO vote -- devomax would have won the day hands down -- but Westminster MPs' egos got in the way
For that reason alone I hope Scotland goes independent and does some serious horse trading during the division of spoils. Westminster needs a serious lesson - they are not going to be holding all the aces (taxation) for long. Come on Cornwall, Yorkshire, et al -- go for devomax for the regions and strip Westminster of it's much abused power!
P.S. Catalonia, Brittany and others can do it too
The EU will change if all the members are smaller, and there's lots of them
Perhaps Cameron didn't want to include devomax on the ticket as he knew that many English people are not too happy as things stand at the moment,what with all the preferential treatment being given to Scotland, both politically and economically.
One thing does worry me in regards to the (hopefully) negotiations, that the UK will not stand strong against the Scottish demands. So far all the three main parties have declared their intent not to share the £. I would envisage that if any of these parties went back on their words the English,N,I and Welsh electorate would never forgive them. As for the EU they have already stated that entry and submission to Brussels will be a slow and drawn out affair.
In the meantime many thousands of well paid jobs will flow south, this could well be a economic bonanza for Yorkshire and other less prosperous regions.
Absolutely correct. And it reinforces exactly what i said about the PLP above. None of them believed scotland would seriously go independent! theres just TOO MUCH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY involved. Theyd have to be absolutely stupid to buy into it! So why risk our political necks by offering them MORE power? We;d have to be stupid! Its totally unnecessary.
And so we have a 50/50 with momentum clearly in the yes camp less than a week to go until polling day and with every offer now on the table.
That 1 youguv poll showed that the UK was bluffing. The panic as they all came north of the border to love bomb scotland and offer us promises of definitely more powers will have been a massive neon sign to every yes voter that just maybe, these non-negotiable things, in the cold reality of September 19th, might just be suddenly open for discussion after all. The UK blinked first.
Its backfired about as bad as you can expect. It came too early. People have had their moment of doubt now. They should have been having it on Thursday.
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A Very Good post, I suspect everything you say is spot on, now can you give us you're thoughts on WHY more people are deciding on a "YES". For instance are they basing their judgment on facts supplied by unbiased observers, by the Nationalist argument or on what they perceive as the negativity of the "NO" side.
One of my friends once got it in her head i was a massive liar. The fact of me trying to explain i wasnt in fact a massive liar just proved what a massive liar i was and why i couldnt be trusted.
I think that might be it
The most interesting is the labour supporters switching. And i really think it stems from the most simple of reasons: they currently hate the PLP. It needs to pander to right wing sentiment to stay relevant in England and win the next election, and that strategy not only cost them the Scottish election in 2011 (a fair sacrifice), but its also costing them the referendum (an unexpected sacrifice). I think they really thought that all would be forgiven by their supporters on something as big as independence and we'd 'do the sensible thing' because (as ive often said) the PLP is the greatest hope for equity and fairness in the UK. Theres no labour supporter i think who does not believe that to be true. They might feel its gone a bit wayward, but its more like an elastic band. Theyll spring back soon enough. But its been taxing waiting for them to do so. The death of John Smith was an enormous blow. Perhaps the elastic just snapped and this referendum is the first time theyve realised. Only now theyre sort of stuck.
In their heart of hearts i really believe that THEY believe in federalism as a way to really move the country forward and bring us a more fair and equitable distribution of power. But they cant deliver it without sacrificing the swing voters in the south east. So they cant seriously offer it. They can make noises about it or guarded statements. But it unravels under even the lightest of scrutiny. Tories have already rubbished the idea. John Redwood is taking great delight in forcing conditions on it. Ed Balls yesterday argued it would be potentially unworkable and throw up a more pressing form of the West Lothian question when trying to pass UK budgets as a labour party without scottish MPs. Andrew Neil tore into it yesterday as well. If that clip starts making the rounds, you can bet a few of the hangers on will be thinking a vote for no IS just a vote to keep things exactly as they are. And thats not the message the no camp wants to send at all. Especially to floating labour supporters who seem to hold the balance of power.
Basically its a collapse in trust of the PLP (and an absolute collapse in trust with the Scottish Labour Party). And they only just realised it last week. The worst thing is they know that its not just in Scotland. Scotland is a wake up call to them, but theyre riding high in the polls... so what to do? They cant do shit. they either let Scotland free through not offering anything to their supporters or they lose the next election by spooking the south east through intervention. The perception might well be that theyre leaving their supporters to fend for themselves and giving them nothing to defend themselves with against the optimism, vigor and positivity of the Yes campaign. So theyll switch. Many will stay of course. But enough will just think its time to break with the PLP and go their own way with their own labour party.
Maybe
Who knows? Certainly not me.
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Not just that, but really, whats the point? Every scottish person on here will have his facebook and twitter account hammered by family and friends back home telling them how it is on the ground. Its also a great bell weather on momentum if im honest. About a month ago it all changed. My mum and aunt started banging the independence drum (alongside my very radical sister, who im afraid HATES the English
Something about a Wallace memorial in London. I dunno. Shes the nutter, not me). My mum is very much apolitical. She cares about one thing at the moment: Why do they keep raising her retirement age? Its driving her up the wall. But these lifelong labour supporters were starting to get annoyed and frustrated with the better together campaign and wondering if just maybe the PL werent screwing the over. There was a clear change happening for those perceptive enough to witness it. In the week running up to the Youguv poll last sunday my facebook wall was FILLED with the Saltire and all kinds of 'inspirational' quotes loosely connected to independence. And then, come last wednesday and the love bomb intervention and the momentum sort of dropped off. Sure, EVERY SCOTTISH PERSON I KNOW was banging on, but it seemed a little less euphoric and a little more "Come on!!!"
Cue this weekend and once again the tone has switched. Its full on again. Its back to euphoria and party time. Its a celebration because they really believe its coming.
Now if you dont have scottish mates, or only a few, you could be forgiven for not noticing it and having to rely on jocks in forums or the newspapers to try and explicate it. But its palpable. And its stronger and more determined than you maybe realise. Its not reflected in the papers. They dont really see it at all. Well, either that or theyre busy trying their damndest to stop what they can see clear as day. The momentum is terrifyingly strong. And its got almost a week left to reach a crescendo. The only way its being halted now is a real deal on the table (unlikely to happen even if the main parties wanted it and weren't just pulling it out of their arse), or if the movement turns ugly and alienates the waverers. That 93% already committed and wont change their minds... i dont honestly think so. After the scare of Thursday and the doubts, people clearly had their think on it. At the weekend they realised they wanted it. And a lot of them now have their fingers in their ears. I just cant see the No voters having that same drive and commitment on Thursday. Im contemplating the absurd possibility that it might actually be the No voters that bottle it at the polls. My mind is boggled.
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Its a big tent. IIts up to the left to set out its agenda and focus on positive change. For me, Its a miss-step for the PLP to mirror this rhetoric for fear of losing votes in the swing districts through being soft on terrorists or soft on immigrants or soft on... anything at all. Its disappointing to see labour peddle this. But lets face it, despite how disgusted i am with them, theyre leading comfortably in the polls and look on course to be the next party of government. So it disgusts me. But people want it. I cant tell where to honestly direct my ire.
And again, its this which alienates me from the PLP.
Its good that theyre winning. But its awful that theyre winning based on rhetoric and policy i find morally abhorrent. Just one more disconnect to add to the list alienating a west coast labour supporter from the parliamentary labour party and my belief that they offer the strongest chance for real change in the UK. As for the SNP and nationalism. As i said above, theyre welcome to whatever opinions they like. I just hope they dont let it out to play in the run up. Its not an error we're focusing on Salmond and the policies of the SNP for an independent scotland. They dont play well to the labour vote. The more its about the SNP the more labour supporters will feel repulsed by the Yes vote. But like many of the strategies of better together its just not playing out how they thought. If anything, as we get to the closing stages, the idea he might be delivering something that scotland is starting to think it might actually want could even be boosting his popularity across the parties. He wont win in 2016 mind you. Unless he fails. Then he'll be re-elected no problem.
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Where are all the NO supporters?
Many of my family are voting no for selfish financial reasons but very reluctant to broadcast it. Are all NO supporters ashamed? If not, they should be, their relatives that fought in Bannockburn will be turning in their graves.
Thank you! The post we have all been waiting for. Living proof of the idiotic nature of this referendum. You complain at your relatives for voting no for economic reasons whilst you think it appropriate to put a nation into depression and tear apart a successful union because of a battle 700 years ago. If i was allowed to use expletives on here there would follow a paragraph of them. Please tell me your reference to Bannockburn was in jest? I can barely prevent myself from saying what i want to. Utterly unbelievable.
So one person you disagree and have been waiting for something like 50 pages of posts is 'living proof' of the 'idiotic nature of the referendum'? I dont want to drop some math here, but one post out of ooooooooh, 1200 (the combined number of posts on both threads) are not odds in your favour here to prove anything at all about the referendum. In fact, they might well point to the actual constructive nature of the discussion that its taken this long for you to FINALLY come across this point so you can declare the whole thing an absurdity.
Also, people can have whatever the hell priorities they like. I think your fear mongering about the collapsing education system within 10 years of independence is as hilarious as it is ludicrous. It wouldnt stop me voting no though (and inadvertently allying myself with you on the day if needs be). Ive already said that the lack of braveheart and FREEDUM!!!! has been a great thing for this whole affair given that labour supporters would find it cheap sentimentalism (well, not THEIR brand of sentimentalism). Still, it doesnt mean your life long SNP supporter is somehow barred from bringing it up as a PERSONAL motivation and inspiration on why they want to vote the way they do. I think the UKIP thing is also nonsense and built on fear mongering. But if people want to vote Farange, then so be it. Its up to the other parties to find out why people would even vote for that, and either show them theyre wrong, let them hang themselves with their own rope, or offer a better vision.
Labour in scotland would love nothing more right now than for the ugly face of nationalism to emerge in these debates. It might just give them their Kinnock in Sheffield moment. And it almost did yesterday at the BBC. Passions are heightening, and the SNP could still mess it all up with misplaced Nationalism. So hold strong my friend you might find that the cultivation of Braveheart works to deliver the election to the No campaign (given that their fear and trembling has done nothing but pass the burden of momentum to the optimism of the yes campaign for the past few weeks).
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You mean you want that thieving hypocrite Brown running an Independent Scotland?????????????????????????????????
Me personally. Absolutely! But the nice thing is that im not the king. Theres no royal degree here. Im one voter. So are you. He has to make his case in the end to the Scottish people and theyll decide for themselves. I think honestly, he'll be welcomed with open arms though.
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I wish my fellow Scots would stop bothering about Salmond, I want a YES vote, but a guy who wants homosexual marriages, sucks in to people from the M faith, apart from the likes of Gordon Brown, or Blair, he is the last person I want to see having anything to do with an independent Scotland. I haven't mentioned "call me Dave" or Milliband as they are not Scots.
Youre absolutely right (well, on the first part at least, no problems at all from me on gay marriage. I welcome and support it absolutely. And i also welcome any religious faith - sorry, i thought with the tricolor you were banging on about some protestant sect there for a second and didnt really care about yoru ecumenical matters. It took me a while...
).
The correction though that i would offer is that the pro-independence lot arent the people focusing on Salmond. The media are. And its deliberate because they hope that by tapping into the general popularity/unpopularity of Salmond they will a) force the supporters into more hardline nationalist rhetoric and b ) will alienate labour supporters who actually hate him plenty enough. In tying independence to salmond, they hope to pull away wavering labour support (absolutely ESSENTIAL for independence to pass), and turn the argument into one about the pipes, the heather, the glens, braveheart and runrig. The labour argument on the other hand is about redistribution, accountability, and a programme of opportunity for the working class of scotland built not on the foundations of austerity for the poor.
Or rather isnt. Thats what a labour supporter WANTS to hear and talk about. The SLP programme is fear, worry, anxiety, PENSIONS!!!! WHAT ABOUT YOUR PENSION!!! and wholesale negative What IF?-fery.
The labour party should have made this one case: The union is better for the scottish labour supporter because... <insert reason>
Instead they made the case that its a leap into the unknown and Salmond is an arse.
But no one cares. We know this already for goodness sake!
Its why the only halt in the momentum came with Browns intervention and a positive argument at last from the No camp on how Britain will actually move to become a more fair and equal society in the event of a no vote. And now that both the conservatives and labour have scuppered those promises before they even took hold, then its back to salmond is an arse, arent you worried? have you thought about your pension? and whatever else wasnt working for Better together. Which is why the yes vote MIGHT actually end up winning this.
ETA: Just one more thing. Im left of center. Solid left if im honest. Im not full on anti-privitisation or the like. I know the market works best (when regulated and protected against its own tendency to monopolise). But EVEN I know that when scotland becomes a new country its going to be, if anything, MORE pro-business and pander MORE to corporations with tax cuts. The first priority is to shore up our economy. The change any labour supporter wants to see will be GENERATIONAL. It wont be overnight. I think most people understand this reality. I felt it needed to be said though because i think theres a tendency to assume that a scottish labour supporter has pie in the sky dreams about the return of clause 4 and a sudden desire to turn the clocks back 50 years to the time of heavy industry and labour. It couldnt be further from the truth. And thats why better together keep missing their targets.
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If it's NO then life will go on, no change, but if a YES, half the Scot populous are going to be very angry being taken into the unknown. If stuff don't work out l can see a huge amount of shit hitting the fan from that huge number of folk.
They won't be angry for long when they see little will change.....a tweak here and there is all we are planning......and never again Tory rule.
They will see the truth quite quickly actually.
You know what, two unexpected victors of independence might be:
1. Gordon Brown.
Last week Gordon Brown entered the foray, and he THUMPED salmond. Effortlessly he tore into him. Almost single handedly he turned a negative campaign from better together into an actual positive vision of why Scotland would be better off with England and with the PLP. It pulled me off the fence and well into the devo max camp. Itll have done the same for a lot of wavering labour supporters. Alas, on reflection, he can only offer an empty promise. The devo max option is already being deflated by Tory backbenchers and even Ed Balls before it managed to get off the ground. But it was a triumphant return to front line politics. In a two day burst of activity he did two things: he brought the word Federalism to the front and center of UK politics. And he rehabilitated the dirty R word, (redistribution) by challenging Alex Salmond on what hed actually done to redistribute wealth to the poor in his last 7 years, and what he was planning to do in his white paper to redistribute wealth? It was an attack designed to appeal direct to the hemorrhaging labour support for YES, and itll be honest, it worked flawlessly. The surging momentum for indepence was halted completely in its tracks as wavering labour supporters had a rethink. The problem is that now theyve had a rethink, they probably realise that devo-max isnt coming. So screw it...
You bet your ass, if Scotland votes for independence, the Scottish labour party, (despised at least by the west coast at the moment for their part in the no campaign and their commitment to austerity), will see a new leader. And Alex Salmond will be shitting himself at the prospect. I know who id want to lead scotland in this transitional phase: Big Gord any day. The man is a political powerhouse. England hated him. Scotland doesnt. He knows that independence will be his way back. And he'll seize on it if only so he can stick it to Salmond and return the scottish labour party to its natural place on the center left of scottish politics.
2. The Scottish conservative party.
Scotland isnt left wing. Its just like the rest of Britain. Theres an equal and opposite reaction of conservatism in scotland. At the moment it struggles to find its message because its so inexorably linked to Thatcher and the bullingdon club elite down south. In devolution it still cant quite cut the ties and stand out on its own to say what it wants to say. Its stuck with that label and very few people want to hear them. But theyre still there, and theyre still holding out that come independence scotland can start looking to the future again. They will be heard, and theyll see a resurgence in support from it. And once again, the big loser will be the SNP who will see their vote squeezed from the right. Conservatives used to do well in Scotland. They will do well again. And it wont hurt them one bit that independence will immediately place them as the party pushing for close ties with their main business partner: England and the Union.
So its kinda fun (to speculate). The big winners could well be the two biggest losers from the referendum vote. And the biggest losers might well turn out to have bee the biggest winners on the night of the 18th. This idea that Scotland is going into some kind of collective sulk the day after is based entirely on a lack of understanding on what independence will mean to both the Scottish Labour and Conservative parties and their supporters. Sure, theyll feign reluctance that their hands are tied and how this is a cataclysmic mistake, but theyll be relishing the change and looking to make their voice the strongest one in the 2016 elections. Salmond might just have to accept that his party are on to a hiding despite having almost single handedly brought about his lifes work. If Scotland votes for independence, theres no turning back and no point to sulk. They make it work and its that simple. And if they cant, the Scottish people will look for someone who can. We're British (in history and culture) and like the rest of Britian we arent just going to leave behind pragmatism on the 18th just because we voted to take control of our own destiny.
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Wow, some fire and brimstone comments overnight then...
On Salmond and the massive exodus of business in Scotland: You might want to look again at Salmonds Scottish Socialist Utopia: As the Labour party rightly asked him (and he avoided answering): Where are these ECONOMIC redistributive measures. In fact, in the 7 years of SNP rule, wheres the redistribution to the poor? It seems his redistributive measures include a 3% drop in Corporation tax from rUK and an absolute cast iron guarantee that he wont raise the top level of tax to 50p.
Lucky for Scottish labour supporters in favour of independence and redistribution (and of course Alex Salmond, since he needs to convince them) that they realise this isnt a manifesto on the SNP then, isnt it? Its a referendum on independence. The referendum on the SNP and Alex Salmond will come in the 2016 elections.
On Business complaints about uncertainty... well these certainly ARE uncertain times. Fortune favours the brave, you speculate to accumulate, etc etc. If others more conservative are less willing to take that risk of a fully functioning state with a highly educated workforce sitting on pots of wealth with its own legal institutions and tax system already in place then i guess we'll just have to cope with their competitors looking for a piece of that pie. Business isnt a charity. It always amazes me that people only recognise the profit motive when it suits their argument. If theres money to be made, business will invest. If there isnt money to be made, theyll invest elsewhere. Youd think perhaps that one of the first orders of a new iScotland would be to calm the markets and reassure investors that Scotland is NOT going for renationalisation and is in actual fact still a vibrant market friendly nation.
But the SNP are talking about 'a day of reckoning'?
That was ONE GUY (Jim Sillars) who hates Alex Salmond anyway and was immediately smacked down by Alex Salmond as talking nonsense (and immediately back tracked by claiming he was offering a sensationalist headline SOLELY to reel in the fishies of sensationalist driven media for air time).
Now for the Anti-English rhetoric. I call complete and total bullshit on this one.
Well, maybe.
Because there IS an anti-English rhetoric if you twist it hard enough. But guess what? The English are spewing just as much anti-English rhetoric. Because this rhetoric is attacking the concentration of political, economic, and influential power of the South East to hold the rest of the country in thrall. If you dont think that the regions of the UK (by which i mean the North and the West) of ENGLAND dont feel that same impotency... indeed, If you dont think that the urban poor in London are feeling this as theyre priced out of their own city by rent inflation, checks on benefit, zero hour contracts, shit stagnant wages and competition for unprotected work, then youre missing the punchline.
Scotland has been attacking England for sure. But it has been attacking a political and economic elite who seem to be routinely pandered to and protected against the worst excesses of their own oligopoly capitalism. Again, where are the redistributive measures in the UK? Where are the redistributive measures to check these excesses in the 2015 general election? What are the labour party even doing to make a case to protect the working poor from their own rampant policies? More austerity? More benefits cuts? More flexibility in the job market (translation: less worker protection)? More right to buy of council homes (well, whats left) to alleviate the rent crisis affecting us all? Whoopdeedoo! lets get on that! theres no way that this, coupled to a lack of social housing, left us in a housing bubble that helps pretend we're in some kind of recovery whilst the spectre of negative equity once again looms over householders whilst in real terms the average person sees their cost of living increase and their wages remain stagnant.
If you think this is Scotland alone complaining about these problems however, then you have your head in the clouds. Not very patriotic of you to assume that England is all completely delighted by the concentration of wealth, opportunity, and economic activity in the south east and has nothing at all to complain about except the immigrants and the jocks who 'no longer love them'. This is a nationwide issue that transcends artificial national borders. Both Scotland and England (and Wales and Norther Ireland) have all been a party to these changes, and its not the case that the moment we cross the border opinion on their success suddenly shifts to the left. Scotland is no more left than England. The labour movement is just as much a product of Jarrow as it is the Clyde or the collieries of Wales. England is not one entity with a Thatcherite hive mind. The scottish referendum will be watched with great anticipation and hope in the regions of England as it is in Scotland without acrimony and with a desire that this dispersion of power also be reflected in the future make up of the rUK.
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How could you forget Rikki Fulton? Thats a real scot right there.
Anyways, yes campaign intimidation/no campaign institutional bias - pick your poison:
http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/BBCBiasV
Dunno how this one will play out. I think quiet outrage would have been a little more constructive, but it is mind boggling when they pan around to the numbers.
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Facts are facts Smokes, not about a horse stumbling at the final furlong cos it's run out of steam. Facts must be taken into consideration all the way to the finishing post. The YES guys have NOOOOOOOOOO answers, nothing. 50% of Scots see this and will NOT be taken in by sales talk, why, cos they ain't daft.
If the YES folk want to achieve their aim by "spinning" facts, well, just hope folk read through it. I would love to say something here which the YES folk would
to hear, but I will not sink to that depth .......
Ill be honest, ive been voraciously reading all day, and im swinging back to Yes if anything. And i put myself as a nice middle ground voter that wants to see all sides. Its exciting. If anything, the polls from the last twenty four hours show such wild variation that this is still up for grabs with plenty of time for momentum to really build. The yes campaign are also going to hammer the No campaign on:
1. BBC bias.
2. The empty promises of devo max.
3. An orchestrated campaign of scaremongering among business leaders in collusion with SPECIFICALLY David Cameron.
If they make either of those stick (and they are making at least the first two stick at the moment), thats a lot of potential voters theyre playing to.
The no campaign on the other hand are offering more of the same.
It would be tough to suggest, even for me, that the no campaign are consolidating now. Theyre under siege and only a concerted drive on at least that second point will see them through. But the promises have to have substance behind them, and if they let that cat out of the bag, you watch the backbenchers crawl from tehir hole to rubbish any new powers to Scotland and burst the balloon. Scary times for no. Im simultaneously thrilled and terrified.
If the SNP had the "real" answers I think the YES would have it, but they ain't. Surely Scot folk see that. Have read folks "spiel" about oil will fix all but we know it has a "life". A short sighted fix to "free" everything. Gawd...........it really is daft that a couple of million tax payers are going to provide all.....Crazy..........BUT wait, N.Korea may be the saviour eh.......
Real answers will come, but only when real conditions are available. The blueprint is an SNP document at the end of the day. It shoudl be held to the same standard that a party manifesto is held. Labour are anti-independence, the tories are anti-independence and the lib-dems are anti-independence. They wouldnt have been consulted on its standpoints (and took great pleasure in rubbishing them). Salmond can only offer his idea based upon a hypothetical situation based entirely upon imaginary conditions that are yet to even be figured out.
Theres no impetus at all for the British government to even ENTERTAIN the prospect of independence and negotiate on the break up of the UK. This begins on Friday 19th should a yes vote somehow occur. Then youll see more sensible pronouncements and a clear realisation of what people have to work with. Or rather youll see the worlds most boring and complicated game of poker being played out for the cameras.
Maybe the closest youll really get to answers will come in the party manifestos for the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections. The trouble for that kind of negativity and attack is that the scottish people know all this already. They're appraised of the fact that this is something of a leap into the unknown. The parachute is oil. Right now. But thats the last answer we want. We want a vibrant modern economy. Oil should only be a bonus on top of this. It shouldnt be plan A. And it wont be. Scotland and the Scottish people have more to offer the world than an accident of nature. And its this idea that perhaps scotland can actually succeed on its own (even without the parachute) that maybe allows the thoughts to turn to yes. Oil isnt the answer in itself. Its maybe a safety net for negotiations to begin with a touch of risk. But its not the end game.
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Facts are facts Smokes, not about a horse stumbling at the final furlong cos it's run out of steam. Facts must be taken into consideration all the way to the finishing post. The YES guys have NOOOOOOOOOO answers, nothing. 50% of Scots see this and will NOT be taken in by sales talk, why, cos they ain't daft.
If the YES folk want to achieve their aim by "spinning" facts, well, just hope folk read through it. I would love to say something here which the YES folk would
to hear, but I will not sink to that depth .......
Ill be honest, ive been voraciously reading all day, and im swinging back to Yes if anything. And i put myself as a nice middle ground voter that wants to see all sides. Its exciting. If anything, the polls from the last twenty four hours show such wild variation that this is still up for grabs with plenty of time for momentum to really build. The yes campaign are also going to hammer the No campaign on:
1. BBC bias.
2. The empty promises of devo max.
3. An orchestrated campaign of scaremongering among business leaders in collusion with SPECIFICALLY David Cameron.
If they make either of those stick (and they are making at least the first two stick at the moment), thats a lot of potential voters theyre playing to.
The no campaign on the other hand are offering more of the same.
It would be tough to suggest, even for me, that the no campaign are consolidating now. Theyre under siege and only a concerted drive on at least that second point will see them through. But the promises have to have substance behind them, and if they let that cat out of the bag, you watch the backbenchers crawl from tehir hole to rubbish any new powers to Scotland and burst the balloon. Scary times for no. Im simultaneously thrilled and terrified.
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Love the picture. Makes me proud to be Scottish. Best friend, looking a wee bit half cut poking at the wry faced victim and probably taking the piss out of the scars he'll be getting.
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England has been largely acknowledged only in passing. This isnt about England, its about Scotland at the end of the day. In fact if anything, one of the primary reasons that the labour vote in scotland hasnt collapsed into a vote for scottish independence DESPITE the absolute hatred of the Tories, has been the solidarity scottish labour supporters feel for English labour supporters whom they also recognise were trampled on by the closure of the collieries and heavy industry. The belief for any labour supporter is that the greatest force for change is ultimately the Parliamentary Labour Party. I think Scottish labour supporters and North East labour supporters share far more in common with one another than Blairist New labour and old labour supporters ever will regardless of where they live. And perhaps because theyre old school, they probably feel that change will only come about through collective representation and ahem, bargaining. We are dependent on the support and shared opportunity as well as the success of one another. This is no small side point. Its axiomatic!
To an extent then, an independent scotland would be seen as a backward step in this long shared goal of raised opportunity, social justice and egality that labour has always professed itself to stand for. We COULD do this in Scotland of course, theres obviously still enough resentment at BOTH the tories and liberals to keep things generally center left for the time being, but the project is bigger than just lifting a few million out of poverty and powerlessness into opportunity. Its collective as i say. Its a shared and common legacy of every labour supporter and owes its debt to the force of labour THROUGHOUT the united kingdom. Scotland didnt give birth to the NHS and the welfare state after all. Labour did; The British people did.
Anyways, im not politiking. Im just trying to explicate why maybe political allegiance trumps nationalist sentiment to a lot of people in Scotland. England is way down the list of concerns. Parts of England maybe not so much. But those parts are problems also for people in the regions of England just as they are for the people in Scotland.
Just as you rightly pointed out earlier that England itself wasnt en masse in love with Thatcher, perhaps its fair to also argue that this logic should show that England doesnt have a single will on the issue of Scottish independence. Indeed, a quick perusal of any comments section on independence always has people from England telling us to be brave and vote yes, followed by a reminder that theyre all very jealous.
It seems that a great many people in England share similar complaints about political impotence that Scotland feels from Westminster politics and would like to be shot of it too. Its why i think this is a bigger conversation and that this vote is just the beginning. England is just as pissed off with the status quo as Scotland is. But its not with Scotland. Its with other parts of England. I think the main parties now maybe realise (thanks to the surge in support for independence) that the Scotland vote is just the beginning. Were it at 30% they might have taken the wrong lesson that everything was fine. I think they should be rightly worried.
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id vote yes if i could obviously. But my instinct tells me when dealing with a change like this, you need to either have a massive groundswell for change (like Obama in 2008), or you need to have a strong and consistent buffer to weather those who have every intention of voting for change right up until they stand in their booth and look at their paper (like the UK General election in 1992 or even Obama again in 2012). Either there has to be a genuine longstanding resentment for the status quo (1997) and a real genuine impetus for change, or there has to be a feeling that regardless of your political ties, youre voting for history. For me, that surge really did push right up until midweek. But i feel the momentum has been halted. It will once again carry on, and maybe even surge again as we approach Thursday. But itll ebb away at the end. Too many people like to flirt with change. But if anything, the problem for Scotland is that theres no clear AWFUL answer. Theres just two really good options on the table (so long as you buy into Devo max). And in that case, i think a lot of hesitant support will drift away when they come face to face with their ballot paper.
Then again, one of my mates is insistent that people will walk in unconvinced, but think "to hell with it! lets do this". Its all up for grabs. Salmond will tell you that every minute every day if he could. In fact the latest poll putting the no's in an 8 point lead will have him ecstatic if only because its kind of against the general trend of the other polls (about 3-5% difference) thus making it a bit of an outlier, but it wil also help him no end make the case that the argument hasnt been won yet, and his campaigners and voters cant just sit back and expect other people to go vote for them. They HAVE to turn out to make this happen. Its music to the YES campaigns ears so close to polling day. Its all to play for... and they cant sit back yet and expect the yes vote to romp it despite his own private polling telling him otherwise.
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A few topics raised about proper planning and what the SNP offer (or can offer). Well, its a fair point. Theres really only a few things they can offer with certainty at the moment, though:
1. Independence.
2. A scottish democratically elected parliament to enact legislation free from (direct) Westminster interference.
3. Oil
4. ???
5. Profit?
It kind of stems back to the start of the debate though. Why is there no plan? I mean theres a plan of course, its out there, salmond published it last year. But its tentative, and rationally, how could it be otherwise? A lot of this is stuff that simply has to be organised and negotiated on in the EVENT of a break up. One need only go back in time to the start of this whole debate. At the time a straight in/out vote was overwhelmingly in favour of a no vote. From what standpoint could Salmond push the UK into a position of negotiation on serious topics like currency union or the share of the UK debt (and assets)? The yes vote had no political impetus to force negotiation. Thus, any deal hammered out at that time (assuming it could even have been done - why would the no camp even stoop to negotiate sucha thing or offer any concessions given that support was overwhelmingly in their favour?) would have been woeful for Scotland. Indeed, it took until the surge in the Yes camp to solidify last week for panic to finally settle in and the No camp to actually OFFER something (which some have argued was and 11th hour intervention against the terms and spirit of the vote). Despite not even entertaining the extremely popular devo max option at the start of the debate, it was now, finally, back on the table. And the only reason it was back on the table was because of the surge of support for independence.
This is a clear case of why Salmond simply could not offer concrete and absolute proposals. Negotiations have yet to begin. The proposals are starting points for negotiation, not end points. I think most Scottish people see and understand this. Independence will have issues. It will have problems and perhaps it will take upwards of a generation to stabilise and become moderately successful. This is just the beginning. The only question that ultimately matters is not how quickly scotland can recover (or whether it ever can?), but whether scotland wants to become responsible for its own choices (and own the right to make its own mistakes), or whether it wants to remain tied to shared responsibility/power and protection through the United Kingdom? Its the primary and only question that Scotland (and even Salmond) can rightly answer at the moment.
On Thursday, and regardless of the outcome, the negotiations genuinely begin on both the powers and responsibilities of Scotland as well as the longstanding future of the UK. Should the unexpected happen and Scotland vote for independence, across all parties thoughts will turn to negotiating a fair deal and laying out the individual party manifestos on exactly what they are going to do to bring their vision to life. The independence question is not, after all, a vote for the SNP or Alex Salmond. His is just one vision of the future Scotland. Why should he get to say what it will look like? The blueprint is exactly that. A blueprint. The house is yet to be built. We might yet find a better way. It is instead, and more simply a vote about independence. If they win, then and only then can we start talking about what Alex Salmond offers specifically to the people of Scotland through the manifesto of the SNP for the 2016 Holyrood election. Then and only then can we talk about plans because then and only then will we have a clearer idea on what is now up for grabs in this new political reality and what concessions our negotiating partners in Westminster are prepared to bring to the table now that its an actual political and economic reality for both of our nations to face.
Im delighted that this is our choice. Above all though, I'm delighted that no matter how Scotland votes, we have opened up a discussion on Federalism, regional power, and what it means to be a citizen of the United Kingdom in the 21st Century. Its a debate that will benefit everyone in the long term regardless of what country, (or part of the country), you come from. We are stronger as a nation together, of course, but things cannot go on as they have for the last 40 years with ever increasing concentration of wealth, economic and political power. Change has to come. And i love that almost 50% of the Scottish voting public has helped push this debate forward.
In the end, the No vote should pass. Scotland will be granted new powers, forcing Wales and Northern Ireland to push for new agreements. From there we will see if England in turn has another bite at regional assemblies and decides to take them seriously or not. I have a feeling they might in this current political climate. Whether you appreciate it or not, this opens up a conversation that needs to be had in the UK. Love it or not, the independence debate has helped open the door to it.
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Not only does the programme enable the development of English speaking and comprehension among Thai students but it also gives English teaching assistants the chance to gain valuable international work experience, learn Thai and integrate into Thai communities.
All this in just 9 weeks, or say ''around 1512 hours as no sleep is taken so as to amass such a vast range of knowledge one presumes.''
Indeed a classic statement worthy of the brothers Grimm and their fairy tales.
Surely the locals will be impressed by those "hundreds of UK students and recent graduates" who get the chance to practice their skills on an apprehensive audience ?
Not really a topic I know much about (if any), but I'm reminded of the good old days when 'we' had the moral duty to educate the less fortunate and so.
Putting away all this bantering, can someone tell me how effective those 9-weeks are, having someone who can speak English as a Native and having didactic skills as well. Is it only mostly good for the teachers and somewhat for the others or can those nine-weeks have some real effect ?
I dunno about efficacy. I dont think thats the remit here. It's probably closer to the stated objectives of the Japanese English Teaching programme: internationalization.
The aim will be to provide a teacher to, I ASSUME, those parts of Thailand where schools are simply too poor or too remote to attract your local tefl backpacker. The community gets an event, the teacher gets a life-changing perspective. Everyone is happy. And at the end of their placement, they probably get a month or so to tour Thailand and SE Asia as well. Sounds all jolly good British colonial paternalism.
Then again, perhaps im wide of the mark. I havent even read the OP. If its just sending people to random schools in BKK or near the beaches, what is the <deleted> point?
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The only time i ever had trouble with an unmetered taxi was day 1, carrying a massive snowboard bag (dont ask) and a couple of other bags, arriving in bangkok after midnight, having no idea where i was going, and having no other realistic option except sucking up the bullshit at the airport.
I paid 700 baht. I gave him a 100 extra as a tip. I just wanted to get in my hotel. Plus it was funny money back then. <deleted>, i spent almost 400 i think it was on an atrocious fake Paul Smith belt from one of the market hawkers in those first naive weeks.
Since that day though, every taxi driver bar none has put the meter on at my request. Id always ask them beforehand though and if they said no, id just wait for the next taxi.
Scottish independence: Yes camp hails 'momentum'
in World News
Posted
Alright then, heres my counter argument.
I lived in Kilmarnock as a kid. it was a nice little town with lots to do and a vibrant little center you could go shopping. I moved away around the age of 10. I came back at the age of 20 (around 1995), to see nothing but boarded up shops and a dead on its arse city center. I then moved to Jesmond, and every day i enjoyed the absolute pleasure of the rich Middle classes as i walked through the dene. Clearly the toon was doing fine. I absolutely saw all of it and from Tynemouth to High Heaton all the way to even Fenham, i can tell you that Newcastle was in wonderful shape. Im sure you want to talk about Benwell, scotswood, and the like. But i dont know what they are. Clearly Newcastle was brilliant and scotland was a crap-sandwich. Definitely no cherry picking involved.