hobz
-
Posts
2,431 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Downloads
Posts posted by hobz
-
-
5 hours ago, Logosone said:
It's actually incredibly easy to dismiss, firstly the US currency is the world's leading reserve and crisis currency, if there is economic crisis, guess what happens, the US dollar strengthens.
As for the US defaulting on its debt the financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269.6 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP) as of Q1 2014.
What this means is that the wealth of the USA is virtually unimaginable.
You assume that it Will be reserve currency forever.
I have no idea where you got those numbers from and what they mean so I can't comment.
If US is in such a great financial place, why aren't they always printing money? Even when times are good? Why don't they always have zero interest rates? Why did the fed try to normalize interest rates and fail? Why did everyone in the us have zero savings and tons of debt and needed immediate saving/bailout from a government that has no money but need to borrow it from the fed?
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
10 hours ago, eeworldwide said:Really? Do you have any sources to back up your claim? You make it sound like the apocalypse.
Nobody knows for sure but here is the pessimistic perspective/point of view:
Many countries (USA among others) never recovered from the 2008/2009 financial crisis.
Interest rates went down to zero after that crisis and wasn't able to normalize. All they did was blow up a bigger stock market bubble (candidate Trump called it a bubble, president Trump called it a great economy).
When they tried to normalize rates In 2018 they quickly had to change course and start lowering rates and do more qe. By the end of 2019 (before anyone had heard of corona) the overnight repo markets showed signs of trouble. Google it.
And then corona hit.
The fed wasn't able to normalize rates in 10 years from 2008/2009. And this crisis is way way way bigger so they will never ever be able to normalize rates. Which means that the US will either destroy it's currency or default on its debt.
Anyway, I don't fully "believe" in the above. But it's a narrative that is hard to ignore or dismiss.
- 4
- 1
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
46 minutes ago, ICECOOL said:I don't understand the whinging. I am retired here. Yes, the lock down kept me out of the bars, kept me of the golf course. Couldn't fish. Didn't see friends as much. But I am alive and healthy.
Yeah it's all about you. Because we had to keep you safe 27 million people had to become unemployed. God forbid we let them work while you stay home.
- 9
- 1
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
17 hours ago, twocatsmac said:I know the stance Thailand has taken isn’t popular and it’s caused me no end of grief too but they appear to have fared better than many far wealthier and supposedly brighter western countries.
Define fared better? Unemployment and bad economy kills too... https://apnews.com/ea3be7fb82bf4bec90a00d75957f833b
According to studies (not only this one) unemployment reduces life expectancy by years. The stress, anxiety, mental health issues, suicide, addiction etc that comes with it.
Also, what is the actual plan for covid here? Are we gonna be locked down until we get herd immunity? (We are far from it) Are we gonna be locked down until the virus is eradicated? (Not happening) are we staying locked down until there is vaccine? (Probably a year away if ever.. making vaccines is not easy)
I think in hindsight Sweden made the right decision in not destroying the economy and letting this slightly worse than the common flu virus do it's thing.
- 6
-
- Popular Post
1 hour ago, mrfill said:Answers template below...
1. All measures lifted
2. Want everything for free - internet, water, electric and lots and lots of free aid money.
3. No curfew
And while we're at it, can't you
4. Let me drive motorbike without helmet. (It messes up my hair)
- 5
-
- Popular Post
War on drugs is such a huge waste of resources.
Legalize, tax and spend a fraction of the resources on harm reduction programs.
- 3
- 2
-
8 minutes ago, Mbaki said:
You made the accusation that they did their best to spread it to the rest of the world, if you don’t have factual evidence to this then your just helping to promote media fear mongering.
The world was heading for a recession before the virus all that has happened is that it has been fast tracked, many had already for seen this and taken precautions so traveling again when restrictions are lifted will be back on the agenda, for those that are economically challenged it may take a bit longer, but this has definitely been a wake up call and changes to many things will result in a different way for the world to move forward into the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/coronavirus-china-disinformation.html
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/craigsilverman/chinese-trolls-coronavirus-disinformation-taiwan
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2020/04/19/aspi-covid-19-social-media-disinformation/
I agree that the world was heading into a recession before. Corona was just the pin That pricked the bubble.
- 2
-
16 hours ago, Mbaki said:
What Xenophobic rubbish, you’ve been reading too many conspiracy theories ???? Tourism will return to normal as soon as restrictions are lifted, and this virus thing is out of the media, most of the regulars are biting at the bullet to get back here not counting the expats stranded overseas away from their families.
Is it xenophobic to be against a ruling party? I have nothing against the Chinese people. Just it's leaders.
It's not a conspiracy theory that they withheld information in multiple ways. It's facts.
It's not a conspiracy theory that we are in a economic recession heading into a depression. You think people will be able to afford to travel like before you have to be pretty ignorant about economics.
Also covid is not gonna get out of media for a long time.
- 1
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
1 hour ago, Virt said:Personally I'm waiting to go back to Thailand until things are back to a somewhat normal stage.
So maybe not before a vaccine is ready.
Also.
No quarantine, no masks, no fever checks etc.
Not going to spend my hard earned money in a place where I can't relax.
So probably not before 2021 but hopefully in February where we planned next trip, but time will tell.
It's only 6 weeks since I left Thailand and I allready miss it so much.
God damn Corona.....
Don't blame the virus. The virus just does what it does. It doesn't have a mind. Blame the Chinese communist party for lying about it and doing their best to spread it across the world.
- 8
- 1
- 1
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
"Tourism will not rebound until the pandemic is over and there is a vaccine"
42% voted for the above... What they fail to see is that we are going into a global depression. People will not have money to travel.. even after the corona vaccine is available the economy will take years to get back to "normal".
we were in a bubble economy before the corona virus hit. Corona is just the pin that pricked the bubble. We had near zero interest rates since 2008/2009. Record levels of debt. And now with corona it's even worse.
i hope im wrong and that we can money print our way out of this. But I don't think so. But I'm not an economist.. and even if I was.. would I know?
- 3
-
12 hours ago, mr mr said:
i think it's time to form a committee to determine the next course of action. i wonder who could head that committee.
I propose a committee to determine who the head of the committee will be. Now who's gonna head the former is a good question..
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Snakes will do snakey stuff. And nobody will hold them responsible because there is no justice system
- 4
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
3 hours ago, RobbyXNorway said:It's a nice gesture but where is the government aparatus that should have been put in place for this reason? Any idiot should know this would cause serious problems for the poorer part of the country.
The only thing that concerns the government is staying in power and using said power to rob the country. That has been clear for more than 5 years now.
- 11
-
15 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:
"Air time" you could dedicate a whole channel 24/7 to bad driving here !
Make it an entire network
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
14 hours ago, OneeyedJohn said:I believe the amnesty extension is very worrying, in that they know something that we don't and are not making it public.
It doesn't take a genius to see that we are nowhere near herd immunity, nowhere near a cure, nowhere near a vaccine...
The only thing we are near is a complete economic collapse.
- 14
- 1
- 2
-
1 hour ago, Toany said:
Stupid to make any prediction when so much is unknown about how the virus situation will go. Maybe they open their mouth in case people forget who they are
Yeah, and the economic situation... World economy might be in a depression the entire decade.. nobody knows yet.
- 2
-
1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:
You could be right - I hope not - but no one really knows, because this has never happened before.
I think a lot of how quickly the economic recovery happens, will be greatly affected by how well all the Govts introduce economic stimulus programs and payments. Big bucks for big projects is not the way this time, lots and lots of little bucks for the smaller businesses and direct to the people in most need is what is needed.
That's not gonna work. It's just gonna create hyperinflation. Obviously I could be wrong, and I hope i'm wrong.
-
3 hours ago, scorecard said:
I got the reaction wrong, it should be the 'sad' face. Sad because someone had to write such a nasty comment.
Sometimes the possible truth is nasty...
The possibility of complete economic world wide collapse is not unrealistic.
- 1
-
On 4/19/2020 at 8:59 AM, cornishcarlos said:
Good post...
Lets get the world started again, be more careful for sure (protect the vulnerable, as you rightly point out) but no more lock downs.
It's too late. Too many businesses are bankrupt and too many people are unemployed already. The economic damage is already done and it will take years or decades to reverse.
-
I wonder if it's gonna last this peace.. the economic damage is done and can't be reversed, no matter what happens with corona. People are broke and unemployed, and they won't get their jobs back and they won't be out spending money which means that businesses will keep going out of business which means more unemployed etc you get the picture.. how long before the riots / protests start?
-
14 hours ago, soi3eddie said:
Every day there are more and more "for sale/rent" signs on businesses here in Hua Hin. Not just bars but shops, restaurants and other companies too. Often whole rows of shop houses (not just new ones). The main Petkasem road was like a ghost town this afternoon. Can't imagine what it must be like in Pattaya or Phuket. Empty showrooms and factories elsewhere for a long time already. The service sector plays such a big role here that there are mass layoffs and people now going hungry and unable to pay rent. This will get dramatically worse in the next 2-3 weeks. Expect more lines for free food and possible protests against the elusive 5,000 Baht subsidy. The leadership have no clue about reality for the hard working Thais.
Guess what, it's too late to reverse... Even if the government removed curfew, restrictions etc today those businesses are already out. And people would not suddenly start shopping and visiting restaurants etc. People would still continue staying home out of fear for the virus AND because they are broke/lost their job. The economic damage is done! And it can't be reversed. It's gonna take years to get back to economic normal.
The only good thing is that there's gonna be lots of hungry and angry people that will remove the current parasites in government soon.
- 2
-
13 hours ago, Stocky said:
Indeed.
You can reopen, but if there are no customers to pay to keep the lights on, the malls, hotels, restaurants, bars etc., will not be staying open for long.
To be fair, every government in the world is facing the same dilemma; when can we safely open, and what are we going to do with the huge numbers of unemployed.
( Let's not even talk about debt, both public and private)
.
Yeah, let's not even talk about when we can open the roads again. 20000 dead on the roads every year. It's a pandemic. We won't be able to open the roads again for a long time. How can people get to work??
- 1
-
Good wake-up call for any alcoholic that was stupid enough to not stock up and unlucky enough to not find a new supply.
-
20 minutes ago, dlclark97 said:
Have seen continuous bashing of foreigners for not wearing masks in public. Yesterday my wife and I went to a large local 'fresh' outdoor market. Estimate 250-300 people were shopping. Never saw a foreigner NOT wearing a mask and would estimate between 5 and 10 percent of the Thais had NO masks and these included the vendors selling their food.
I have the same experience in local markets around Chiang Mai.. most the vendors doesn't wear mask or they wear it around their neck but doesn't cover mouth / nose. Irresponsible, ignorant morons.
- 1
8 policemen dismissed after allegedly demanding Bt40,000 from woman
in Central Thailand
Posted
And that would be a bad thing?