Brickbat

1 minute ago, saengd said:

I'm pretty sure you'll find that banks et al are somewhat more cautious about things today and especially if they buying and not selling, which was the purpose of all this banter in the first place, those institutions doing due diligence  on what they buy, or at least understanding it very well. Let's face it, most people who claim the Baht is being manipulated simply parrot the phrase because it sounds good, they have no understanding how forex or economics works and are unable to defend the statement with even a simple level of supporting detail..

Whatever the reason, you have to agree that they must be able to have some control and that this current strength can only keep hurting the economy whilst benefitting the very few who are cash rich. 

11 minutes ago, saengd said:

42% of GDP is way too much debt is it....really? You should read up more on the subject, it's negligible, especially when it's backed by a years worth of GDP in the savings account!

It’s closer to 80%. Acc to Tisco

“ 

Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow by only 0.8 per cent this year, with high risk of contraction if the Covid-19 situation, drought, and the falling oil price become more severe or prolonged for the estimated period.

Tisco Economic Strategy Unit (ESU) 

1 minute ago, saengd said:

People shouldn't invest in things they don't understand, the banks knew what they were selling!

They were big Pension Funds. Mums n Dads have no clue . Or choice 

25 minutes ago, saengd said:

Over 17% of all bond sales are to foreign entities, large banks, insurance companies, governments etc, people who understand finance, economics and investments.

Really? In the last gfc, do you know how much mum n dad money was lost by these “ people who understand finance” ? Trillions! 

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

Thailands GDP will likely fall for the next couple of quarters which technically will put them in a recession. But they'll be in good company along with at least a quarter of the western world!

I seriously doubt they can manage the upcoming storm. Way too much debt and foreclosures will be rampant. The world dropping interest rates will add to this madness of borrowing like drunken sailors. 

2 hours ago, Ventenio said:

have you considered leaving?  why were you there in the first place, don't you know it's the worst burning season ever.  if not, why are you still there?  i'm not trolling, i'm just asking.  if i go to a war zone and stay one night, i don't then book another week.  i leave.  i'm trying to help you get healthier, but i'm not sure this is your goal.  so i'm curious.  

 

yes, i think we should be shamed if we (westerners) do stupid things like hang out in the worst pollution in the world.  come on, our parents would not be happy at us.

It’s not an easy decision when one has a gf who works , and I am not one to hop skip and jump. I love routine. But getting to the point where I might jump. Anger building up at this nations utter stupidity. Health is wealth , I keep telling myself . 

8 minutes ago, saengd said:

Why is THB so strong: The problem with the Baht is current account strength which is mainly a function of the trade surplus, exports are higher than imports. Now tourist numbers have fallen and presumably exports will take also fall so in theory that should reduce the trade surplus. BUT because exports have reduced that means business is not as productive as it might be and people are earning less money, that means the demand for imports will also fall, the effect of those things is that exports will remain higher than imports albeit both will remain at a lower level than before.

 

Every year the Thai Government and BOT sells over a trillion Baht's worth of bonds, most of it is designed to finance budget debt. Bond sales are usually oversubscribed, Thai bonds are well regarded and considered to be good quality international debt.

 

Who Believes it: Bonds sell at a price relative to their face value, duration and coupon rate. In very simple terms and by way of an exaggerated example they say, here's a clutch of bonds worth say 1 million baht, paying 3% interest, redeemable in ten years, in ten years time we will give you your 1 million back again, in the meantime we'll pay you 3% interest per year.

 

Over 17% of all bond sales are to foreign entities, large banks, insurance companies, governments etc, people who understand finance, economics and investments.

 

Do you think those companies/people would buy Thai bonds on that sort of scale if they had even the slightest whiff that somebody might be playing with the figures or if they even suspected that the Baht was being manipulated?

 

So the Govt will end up like it’s people, over their heads in debt. Which could eventually send this baht into free fall when this inevitable gfc occurs. Just wondering. Gdp forecast now down to .08% for 2020. That’s a serious drop. 

So why is their Baht so strong? Who is believing in it? Smart expats have jumped ship.  Thais have no clue. The sky could fall and it would be a mai pen rai with a big smile.

3 hours ago, rott said:

Please clarify this high death rate of which you speak. 

It rages through a nursing home in Seattle and 11 of the 18 folks die from this virus. Good enough ? I mean, Govts are spending billions to contain it. Go figure! 

I am next to a 4 star Holiday Inn and it’s pretty empty. So are the streets in CM. Nice! 

Blame a virus rather than scumbag monetary policy and Wall Street  thieves for the inevitable derailing of the debt Bomb economy.

8 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

The only difference is that Aids is dangerous

And so, catching a highly infectious virus from which there is no vaccine and a high death rate is not dangerous? Good on ya! Hope you have a will. Where there is a Will, there’s always a family fighting over it. 

A better chance of not catching aids from a Pattaya bargirl with no condom than going into any crowd in this looming worsening crisis. 

3 hours ago, Yinn said:

false narrative.

 

kuwait already evacuation Kuwait people from Iran, Korea, China, Italy and Japan.

 

Hilarious! Mr Pravda!, well said!

And yes! What does the Kuwait govt know that we don’t know? 

Don’t forget they all peddle and hustle. All the gf’s I’ve had and their pals all flog some <deleted> or another. Mostly beauty <deleted> , insurance, food etc. constant hustle, even at dinner gatherings. My current gf is on 27,000 a month. Works as a govt official . From what I can see, it’s clerical duties. Plus all the hustling money.

one scary thing I noticed. They are drowning in debt! 

The Vietnam Dong has not appreciated like the baht. That’s a good reason too, to quit, as it looks like staying put . Smoke to me!

57 minutes ago, saengd said:

So you're talking about household debt...........it's not big by comparison to other countries.

Cheap labor paying off debt is household debt. 
snd cheap wages makes it unsustainable. Most don’t understand simple cash flow. Not even the lenders. Maybe engineered by the ruling 1%

37 minutes ago, saengd said:

You mean the nation is paying off debt or the cheap labor is paying off debt? FWIW Thailand's debt ratio is extremely low at 40% of GDP, the IMF is actively encouraging them to borrow more hence they are now running a larger budget deficit.

Thailand's household debt accounted for 78.4 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Dec 2018, compared with the ratio of 78.1 % in the previous year.

Nation of cheap labour who are mostly paying off debt . Great for big business. Baht will stay strong. Unfortunate for expats bar USA. Aussie taking a dump because our smart govt has a handle on the economy to boost exports. And we are so reliant on China who is also taking a beating. Interesting times never seen before. The tough keep going! 

Comedy Central

Business dictates as usual to the gullible. When to display your love. When.....Every day is an opportunity to show your partner that you love them. And the cunning Business fraternity and the gullible will resound “ you are so unromantic!”

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Who said, Mickey Mouse, where's the link you're quoting from?

https://www.nasdaq.com › articles

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Why should it, the trade surplus and current account surplus is still there.

The current account surplus is slipping fast.

Thailand's baht currency is likely to weaken on more foreign selling, a lower current account surplus and reduced dollar-related gold trading flows, a deputy governor of its central bank said on Wednesday. ... "That makes the baht not a safe haven as it was before," he said.Dec 4, 2019