Dogmatix

There was a very interesting special report in yesterday's Hoon Thai (Thai stocks), the stock market investors' trade paper, detailing all the holdings in speculative small cap stocks recently acquired by the police chief and his family. These positions, largely in companies that have been losing money and are in financial trouble, have been acquired through private placements which place the police chief and family on the top shareholders' list. In the case of Watana Capital (WAT), a small company whose core business in the past appeared to be developing properties and selling them at a loss but now owns 7.5% of The Nation, he has actually emerged as the largest shareholder following a B360m investment by his daughter and himself. Another family member has also become a major shareholder of Picnic Corporation (PICNI), a troubled company formerly connected to politicians that is currently suspended from trading. Picnic is process of doing a merger or takeover of World Gas, where the police chief's daughter has been appointed CEO at a fairly young age. Other stocks where they have subscribed to sizeable private placements are MLINK (a Shinawatra family mobile phone selling business) and Acqua (AQ). Recent investments run to hundreds of millions of baht and some have moved up substantially following the placements, e.g. WAT has moved up from the placement price of B0.036 to B0.06 (after briefly touching B0.09) making for a paper profit of B36 B238m in a few weeks. The reporter mentioned that the police chief's family were not previously known to be active stock market investors and wondered, if they had suddenly become such high profile investors as beginners or had cut their teeth investing behind the scenes over a period of years. He wonders out aloud if the public was aware of their police chief's alternative profession as a stock investor involved in takeover type transactions. At any rate it would be difficult for normal people to maintain this exciting level of investment activity without being distracted from their day jobs.

This is not rumour, idle speculation or distorted information. It is a brief summary of an article that appeared in a Thai newspaper yesterday that was based on publicly available information, as reported to the Securities Exchange of Thailand.

Killings by "rogue" soldiers and credible reports of cover-ups....

If you dig into archives of newspaper reports from the late 40s, you will find exactly the same sort of stuff which had already been going for decades then. This has been going on under the current leadership. So what is going to change?

Of late, the talk among policymakers and leaders in Bangkok has focused on setting up more military units and pouring in more money for newer weapons to solve this problem - like 2,700 Heckler & Koch assault rifles for the Defence Volunteers.

Oh yes, this is going to change. Another 2,700 assault rifles in the hands of untrained LDV recruits which can be used against alleged insurgents but will gradually find their way into the hands of the insurgents themselves and will make the LDV prime targets. An assault rifle doesn't offer much protection if you are shot in the back of the head when you least expect it.

Why doesn't Thailand do what INDONESIA is doing and give more VISAS and make the process easier for the countries it wants to attract.

It should also stop aiming at the rich 2 week holiday makers and go for the TRAVELLERS too.

Yes backpackers stay in budget rooms and spend less, but they stay longer and usually borrow money from student loans to go travelling.

In reality a backpacker probably spends the same amount over a longer period of 2 month time than a 2 week 4 star tourist.

A backpacker is less profitable than a high end tourist - even if they spend the same amount.

Plus a high end tourist is putting money into the pocket of influential big businesses owned by influential families. The backpacker isn't.

Backpackers seem to have been pouring oodles of money into small businesses of families with influence on a national scale in Koh Tao. Pounds grow from pennies.

More tourist police will also facilitate and ensure safety for tourists, while zoning laws will be improved to enhance sustainability at tourist destinations, the minister said on Monday.

Will these new tourist police be from the 10,000 police conscripts planned by the police chief?

Of course they will get off the hook. The interim constitution drafter admitted that he deliberated omitted to give the NLA the power to impeach the backlog of cases because it was "too hard". LOL.

Next step. Failure to impeach Yingluck followed by failure to prosecute her in the criminal court and people will start wondering what the was the point of the coup, since the reform process also seems to be going backwards.

A referendum would take another 5 months and what happens if it is rejected, since this is not provided for under the interim constitution? Presumably a rejection would have the same effect as a disagreement between the NRC and the CDC, i.e. both are dissolved and the process of selecting them and another attempt at drafting a constitution start again from scratch. That would mean elections in September 2017 at the earliest, assuming the second draft is agreed between the new NRC and CDC and approved in a second referendum.

I wonder if Mr Cees Koldijk is returning to Krabi for another holiday of a life time with his daughter as a result of the promotions and and the tourism ministress's assurances that Thailand has suddenly become safe.

The previous tourism minister suggested that his daughter must have consented to being brutally raped and left half naked by the side of a rural road because she had dinner with her assailant, a convicted murderer, and a group of other people. This was in spite of the fact that the rapist, Mr Chumpol, was a convicted murderer who was allowed to work legally as a tour guide following his realease from prison. Let's hope Ms Kobkarn, as a woman, will be more sensitive to the plight of the many female tourists who are victims of violent crime in Thailand.

Mr Koldijk vowed to take down his video from Youtube when his daughter's assailant was safely behind bars. So I assume that Mr Chumpol is still out on bail appealing his conviction, despite his conviction and 20 year prison sentence for the rape and assault and his former track record as a murderer. Perhaps he is still working as a tour guide. There are also some highly suspicious characters wandering around in Koh Tao late at night in spite of the curfew preventing Burmese from being out of doors after 10pm.

Better to stay away, if you are female and under 70.

Got to stop raping and murdering the European tourists they already got before they can have more.

So far the Myanmar embassy has petitioned the Justice Ministry (the owner of the DSI) for a new investigation, the suspects have petitioned the DSI directly, the British government demanded and was permitted to send observers (although we may never hear anything of their findings), the NHCR has attempted to inititiate an investigation into allegations of torture by the police and the interpreter. The victims' parents also have the right to petition the DSI to investigate. In addition they can initiate a private civil case, although it is understandable that they might feel getting involved in such hassles would only make their grief and frustration worse.

Unfortunately under the current interim constitution and political structure options are somewhat more limited than is normal. The DSI chief now has to put new investigation decisions to its board which is controlled by the government and the Justice Minister is concurrently deputy army chief. The NHCR lost its power to prosecute with the dissolution of the 2007 constitution. So protection of human rights and what were already extremely limited checks and balances against the all powerful police are now very much up to the discretion of the current powers that be.

It will be interesting to see how far Myanmar is willing to push the case as, if all the parties interested in a new enquiry, they seem to hold the most persuasive cards at the moment. Myanmar probably needs the remittances from its workers in Thailand as much as Thailand needs their labour but it would probably be a good time for both countries to clean up the prevailing situation where at least half of the workers are illegal and exploitation and slavery are rampant. Myanmar closing its legitimate border crossings to labourers leaving without correct documentation would be a step in the right direction for improving labour conditions and would cause immediate pain to Thai employers who rely on the cheap undocumented labour as well as the police and other government officials who benefit from their under the table payments. Other countries, like Indonesia have done this (to Malaysia) following cases of abuse of domestic workers.

In the field of investment I think that Thailand needs Myanmar more than the other way round. Now that Myanmar has embarked on political reform there are many other countries that can replace Thailand's planned investments and also provide far superior original technology and training than Thailand's which almost exclusively second hand. Thailand has lost competitiveness due to its failure over decades to invest in R&D and education and is now the slowest growing economy in ASEAN. Meanwhile populist governments have created a Western style entitlement culture which the economy can't grow fast enough to support. Thailand desperately needs access to Myanmar for investment and trading to benefit from its faster growing economy and cheap labour on site. Cutting Thailand out of a few deals would make a huge impact. Let's see what Myanmar's resolve is like. After all it's only a short time since it started to exit from decades of military dictatorship and its journalists are still showing up in shallow graves.

He should stop worrying about nonsense like this and start worrying about how his government is going deliver on the wide sweeping economic, legal and social reforms he promised. After a promising three month start he seems to have lost momentum after forming the government as all types of vested interests have started clamouring for attention. Good government performance will be rewarded with words like 'praise' in the media. There is still time to get back on track.

Better start regulating clinics and doctors a bit better and make sure the charlatan that killed the British patient get banged up for a long time to increase confidence http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/771796-bangkok-doctor-of-british-woman-who-died-in-surgery-clinic-unlicensed/. There are thousands of these unlicensed frauds advertising in English to catch unwary foreigners. The police and the Ministry of Public Health obviously benefit from the situation or they would shut them done and bang up offenders before they can do much damage.

For the time being martial law and the military installed government are a bit of an impediment to medical tourism in the same way as they affect general tourism.

Sad. I hope this is not a variation of the "farang falls from condo balcony' story.

The government should certainly file a civil suit demanding she reimburse the losses to the state.

It would be interesting to take NEW DNA samples of the 2 Burmese suspects and compare these with Hannah's DNA sample used when testing the Headman's son yesterday.

The suspects' lawyers should not voluntarily agree to more DNA tests unless samples are taken by UK experts and compared with samples of the perps' DNA they have in the UK. Arguably they have already been subjected to two DNA tests in Thailand - one negative and one positive. No doubts another one done in Thailand with or without chief of police present and atendant media circus would prove positive. As it is the police claim to have wrapped up their case and have no reason to demand further DNA tests from the suspects. The defence lawyers can challenge the DNA tests in court more easily without more 'positive' results.

Only the finest quality tourists should now come who are wealthy enough to afford armoured cars and off duty Thai special forces as body guards (would you trust off duty police?) and whose womenfolk are old and ugly enough to wear bikinis safely.

TAT will be happy about this. Tourist numbers will further decrease. Thailand is becoming more and more a dangerous place, time to go elsewhere.

And here's another outstanding tourism promotion story for TAT only now coming out several months after the event. Three young British women savagely assaulted in their hotel room on their first night in Thailand several months ago. All three suffered serious facial injuries requiring hospital and dental treatment. Two were knocked unconscious and one had a broken jaw. The police haven't arrested anyone for the assault - no Burmese handy or what? - and the story didn't make local or British media, except when one of the victim's UK insurance company tried to chisel her on her insurance claim.

Search in google for 'megan ogden attacked thailand' and you will find some links to articles.

Thailand has certainly become a dangerous place for tourists, particularly young females and what we see reported in the news is only the tip of the iceberg, as police are clearly instructed to keep all crime against tourists out of the media, if at all possible.

This military junta illegal government are going too far now.

This military are not fit for purpose.

They would run a mile at any real conflict and only have a history of repressing their own people.

The next government should seriously look at replacing the lot of the military command.

If anyone has committed crimes punishable by death are the succession of high ranking military personnel.

Come now. They are good at modelling their nice tight green uniforms, medals and braid which look much better than the obese BiB. But if it came to a fire fight I would put my money on the battle hardened Burmese military in their baggy, poorly cut fatigues.

All Burmese near Thai airports should ensure they have irrefutable alibis during Loy Kratong or they might find themselves on death row after a spell of water boarding sport.

Most tourists coming to Thailand know that its not safe to walk the streets alone and once this story gets published abroad that will give tourists more information with regards how safe Thailand really is, but we cant take away the police speed at arresting the alleged perpetrators well done to the BIB possibly if they were more visible on the streets as a deterrent this type of incident might not happen so often in Thailands tourist hot spots.A lot of bad people in the world and Thailand seems to have its fair share of them.

Lucky for the Burmese in the area that the victim survived and was able to identify the perps. Otherwise a couple of them would probably be sitting in the cop shop with plastic bags over their heads.

It must take a particular type of macho male to enjoy raping a woman that he has just bashed over the head with a brick or even killed.

I think the situation is a bit more complicated. Military has to be in total control but also it can then be used as a scapegoat to run the country into the ground so it can be rescued or "turned around". We could be playing a game of comparatives with the winning hand going to the oarsman who returns the boat to the right course again.

Take the kiddies candy away for a year or so and see how popular you will be if you are the one to hand it back.

That is going to be tough. After the 1997 crisis the IMF bailed out the baht, avoiding total total collapse, but pushed Thailand into a deeper economic crisis by insisting on strict fiscal and monetary discipline. At least banks were more or less cleaned up and finance companies were shut down. The consumer was still virtually unleveraged then and interests rates were alllowed to fall following the end of the IMF programme and VAT which the IMF had insisted should be implemented at 10% could be dropped to u7%. So with a tidied up financial sector and and a devalued baht that immediately boosted exports and tourism plus no damage to Western economies apart from the dot com bubble it was relatively easy for Thaksin to appear to have engineered a recovery after his 2000 election win. Just about all those factors that were positive in 2000 are now maxed out now leaving public investment which is a relatively small part of the economy to do all the heavy lifting. The global economy might suddenly lurch forward as soon as 'saviour' got into power but this is a long shot and anyway Thailand's export competitiveness remains a problem, while competing tourism destinations like Vietnam (and soon Burma) will be making faster headway. I think it unlikely that anyone taking over will just luck into a economic sweet spot again - more likely to be handed a poison chalice.

You can test them a million times if you want, but unless the reference sample has come from Miss Witheridge, you may as well not bother.

I agree, however the prosecution is saying a cigarette butt that one of the victims used was also smoked by the defendants.

In films, it goes a bit like this:

"Don't worry, we only want to find the right killer, we don't want to hurt you. Really can you think of any information that could help us? Come on, let's be friends - here, would you like some of this cigarette? Maybe it will help you calm down"

Slightly more subtle than, for example, forcible masturbation of a suspect as alleged here, http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=751

I suppose you can have forcible masturbation but I think it extended to sexual assault with an intent to extract DNA from the resulting semen to plant in the victim and make a case. Quite simple really. That is why DNA needs further evidence to support it - the fact that samples can be tampered with at multiple points and especially in Thailand where there is little faith in the processes and morality of the police force in general by anyone - native or foreign.

This was alleged to have happened when the CM police tried to fit up a Karen hill tribesman for the murder of Kirsty Jones. He claimed they ordered him to masturbate to provide a semen sample and tried to do the job themselves when he declined. There was also a story about police paying a lady boy to provide a random sample that would never match anyone without telling him what they wanted it for. I am not sure if the Thai hospitals would even know whether the DNA samples they were matching against came from semen or another source. It might be possible to use the same sample on both sides of the equation.

A second autopsy may have occurred in the UK. I would not expect it to point to nor exclude any suspects.

I would expect it to attempt to pinpoint a cause of death, and to include a toxicology report.

A post mortem must have been performed on Hannah by law because it is mandatory in England and Wales when the bodies of British citizens who died in unclear circumstances abroad are returned to the UK. David was a Jerseyman and I have no idea of the laws there but I think we can assume the Jersey coroner would also have ordered a post mortem, whether or not it was mandatory.

What we don't know is to what extent the bodies of the victims would have been sanitised before they were released for repatriation. It is very likely they would have been cleaned up and embalmed which would have reduced the ability of the British pathologists to do their work. Following the Canadian post mortems of the two French Canadian girls who died of poisoning on Phi Phi the pathologist didn't publicise the report at the request of the families which is also quite likely in this case. At any rate it should be kept sub judice until after the inquests.