Dogmatix

Thaksin doesn't fly on commercial carriers.

Sretha lying.mp4

Ha ha ha. Anyway it was predictable that Tony was not coming home at this point. It was just a smokescreen to distract attention from PT's unsavory dealings with the uncle parties. Now they have finally pulled the chain on MFP, it's plain for all to see. So no more point in keeping the smokescreen going. Bad luck for Tony that the constitution court has delayed the PM vote. Tony was obviously counting on it being today and having the PM job under his controls. Now there is more time for people to contemplate what he has done in trashing democracy. Also more time for people to get their minds around Srettha's role in signing off on the sales structure of the piece of land on Sarasin that looks very much as if Sansiri colluded in tax evasion by agreeing to transact the purchase of a single title deed for a rai of land into 12 separate transactions on 12 different days. This should probably have been treated as a partnership for tax purposes, rather than 12 individual sales, since all names were on the sole title deed. Even if Sansiri didn't benefit, it looks like a major breach of corporate governance and ethics to allow a structure that looks like it was designed to evade tax. The Land Department officials and the sellers will also have some interesting questions to answer. Such a weird sales structure involving the withdrawal of hundreds of millions in cash could not have been approved by anyone other than the CEO, Srettha. The seller family's tax adviser screwed up by telling them to put all the names on the deed, instead of breaking it up into 12 different deeds which have made it totally legit to tax as individual sales.

Ung Ing also announced when she was appointed "head of the PT family" that the party would amend 112 because it was used as a political weapon (as well known by many of her dad's red shirts who are rotting in jail for LM). She was roundly attacked by Prawit's party spokesman for this but PPRP and the senators seem to have forgotten about it, although Srettha's announcement of support for amending 112 on the campaign trail is more recent and still remembered with help from Chuvit who has been promoting clips of it.

Property taxes explained and what you need to know. A helpful guide from Sansiri. https://www.sansiri.com/en/news/thai-property-taxes-explained-what-you-need-to-know-286/

Sansiri purchased a rai of land on Sarasin Road for 1.57 bn. There were 12 owners on the deed, each with specified percentage ownership ranging from 5% to 40%. The sellers should have been treated as unregistered partnership for tax purposes and there are tax cases establishing precedent for this. That would mean withholding tax deducted at the land office but the partnership should have filed a PND 90 return for the year and would have paid tax at 35% on the profit less whatever w/h tax deducted at the land office. The land was acquired in 1984 from the Sarasin family, so must have been a lot of profit to pay tax on. Chuvit claims that the fact that the sale was broken up into 12 separate transfers on 12 consecutive working days, even though it was a single title deed makes it obvious that the intent of the sellers to avoid being considered as a partnership. Otherwise why would you do it like that? However, Chuvit didn't produce evidence that they didn't file tax as a partnership which would be impossible anyway, if they really didn't. Plus a large portion of was paid in cash which looks suspicious. Total tax paid on the transfer was 59m. Of this 2% must have been transfer tax and 0.5% stamp duty for a total of 39.25m leaving only about 20m paid as w/h tax. This looks understated even if the seller were entitled to tax treatment as individual sellers. If correctly taxed as partnership, the total income tax would probably have been around 450m. So including the transfer tax and stamp duty, Chuvit's figure of 521m looks right on the button. Total tax paid on the transfer was 59m. Of this 2% must have been transfer tax and 0.5% stamp duty for a total of 39.25m leaving only about 20m paid as w/h tax. This looks on the low side even if the seller were entitled to tax treatment as individual sellers. If correctly taxed as a partnership, the total income tax would probably have been around 450m. So including the transfer tax and stamp duty, Chuvit's figure of 521m looks right on the button. An interesting side effect of the constitutional court delaying the PM vote will to give time to allow this unsavory piece of news to be understood and fully digested. The uncles don't like Srettha and would would prefer Ung Ing to him, if it has to be PT. Srettha voiced support for the MFP policy to amend 112 on the campaign trail which makes the senators wary of him, plus his past association with Yingluck make him unappealing to them. (Ung Ing is also on record as saying PT would amend 112 in 2021 but she she is less likely to go rogue as PM, as she is directly controlled by Thaksin.) It also brings the possibility of Prawit or Anutin as PM closer to reality. The chart below is from Chuvit's press conference. It shows all 12 transactions with the amount of tax paid on each and the proportion of cash paid to each seller.

It’s interesting that both Ung Ing and Srettha are on record promoting PT’s policy to amend 112 to prevent it from being used as a political weapon. Thaksin, according to Wikileaks, told US Ambassador John that 112 needed to be abolished for Thailand ti have a hope of democracy. Amazing volts face by PT and Palang Pracharat which attacked Ung Ing and PT not long ago for their amendment stance which was affirmed and defended by the PT spokeswoman at the time. But Thais have very short memories when they can smell brown envelopes.

PT does seem on track for dropping down to being medium size party on a par with BJP but things can change quickly in politics. Thaksin has highly paid consultants analyzing what went wrong in the last elections and how to fix it. Note that the puppet Sreth has already been told to adopt some of MFP’s policies that proved popular with voters, eg abolition of conscription.

I don’t think so. Thaksin desperately wants to be a part of the so-called elite, himself.

Exactly. Just find a dodgy clinic that will issue the certificate without any tests. Theoretically you could pass by getting a certificate to say you had syph but not stage 3. But why put yourself to that trouble and expense to play by the rules when no one else does in such a corrupt country?

I left the island on Sun 30 July myself. I am so glad I anticipated this and managed to get to the ferry terminal at 8.15 am. I was able to park inside the terminal and was on a boat by 8.50. At the mainland terminal at Aow Yhammanat the system for paying was more efficient. Just drive past a booth and pay cash. No ticket issued. On the Koh Chang side you have to park and walk to a ticket office where you are pointlessly asked for your car registration number which no one looks at on the ticket. So you can give them any 4 digits, if you can’t remember it. (Mine was slightly wrong).. A woman has a full time job going up the queues asking to see tickets and sending people who thought there would be a drive past pay booth scuttling off to queue at the ticket office, hoping to get back in time before their row rolls off creating a queue of irate drivers behind.

I think it possible that David's harsh talking friend was overlooked or deliberately put to the back of the queue but may have been put back in the queue somewhere around the middle following his and his wife's harsh words. It always seems worth going out there, if you feel genuinely behind schedule but politeness is recommended, however frustrated one may feel. The staff have to put up with enquiries all day long and most are from minorities who often have no clue how the system works (I sat in their office for a few hours waiting for my interview). They get frustrated too and most of the errors are likely caused by someone else.

But we are banned from politics under the constitution. Any those who are Thai from birth are eligible.

Nevertheless it is a question that many people ask which is not surprising, given the level of corruption in Thailand. In fact, if you ask many lawyers and brokers, they will tell you a substantial bribe is essential which they can arrange discretely for you. Then they will proceed to pocket the whole lot for themselves and spend the next 3 years coming up with excuses as to why the client's citizenship wasn't expedited as promised. I know someone going through this at the moment. He ignored my advice not to pay the expressway fee to the lawyer who is now claiming that the Chinese have bid up the bribes so much that he needs to make a top up payment to be taken seriously. 555

I like this approach because, although it is not very practical, it would place enormous pressure on the senate which has created this impasse. The 7 MFP coalition partners had no trouble with MFP's section 112 policy as it was omitted from the MOU and they were expecting to be given cabinet portfoliosby MFP they could make money out of. But now the tide has turned they have all suddenly realised they can't give their support to a coalition that includes MFP.

There will be another batch of appointed senators without the right to vote for the PM.

You are right. It was planned all along with Thaksin but the unexpected MFP victory threw a spanner in the works. With a majority in the lower house and the current senate controlled by Prawit sitting till May, they will have the numbers and time to re-write the constitution and organic laws.

There were rumours long before the election that negotiations had been ongoing about Thaksin letting Prawit (or Prayut) be PM in return for letting him come home scot free when Thaksin was fantacising about a landslide PT victory. Since Prawit controls most of the senate vote, there is logic to that. Sretha is not considered reliable or likely to survive long by the old guard and Thaksin will have to pay billions to get the senate to vote for him. One look at Sretha tells that he is not cut out for the dirty world of politics and, since he lacks his own faction in PT, he is attractive to Thaksin as he cannot be his own man.

There are still a lot luxury watches he doesn't own, or have on loan, yet and the best way of avoiding prosecution for his past misdeeds is to stay in power for the rest of his life.

Prawit has a lot of bargaining power with his old boss Thaksin prior to the vote because he controls the senate vote without which Thaksin can't shoehorn in his nominee. After that I think we will a folding of UTN back into PPRP whence it came which will make PPRP bigger than Anutin's BJP and the second largest party in the new style Thaksin led pro-dictatorship coalition. Then we will see Prawit coming into the cabinet in person, if not before.

One point never mentioned by police re gun crackdowns is how many of the guns turned out to be legally registered and had to be returned to their owners. In photographs of this latest cracckdown from another source there were a large number of .22lr rifles visible which are hardly the weapon of choice for most criminals and usually used for plinking at 50 metre ranges.

Looking at the stray dog problem I took my 2 year old son to bet rabies pre-exposure vaccination.

July 16th has been and gone.

PT is rapidly backtracking on its agreement to form a coalition with a party that had a policy to amend 112. This is despite Thaksin being quoted in Wikileaks telling the US ambassador the law had to go, as it was incompatible with democracy, and Sretha apparently saying on Tik Tok that it was OK to amend the law but not abolish it.