newnative

If you don't want optimism, why did you post this: Can you not throw some of your optimism her way, as she is hemorrhaging money every month?

It's from the Office of Statistics. It's statistics, not an article. It's been posted several times. Keep up--or look it up yourself. 61% of 11 million Chinese tourists in 2019 equals 6,700,000.

As a former owner at VT3, 5C, 5D, and 7, you nailed it.

I'm not promoting 'this image' or 'denying' tour groups. I am simply citing a fact from the Bureau of Statistics--which has no stake or ax to grind on whatever the figures end up being. My point is to correct misperceptions--some of which I have had. I've said several times that I was also surprised at the 61% figure. Obviously, a big bus of tour group Chinese makes far more of an impression than a Chinese family or couple traveling independently, quietly going about their business. Perceptions can be faulty. Yes, as I have already posted, Chinese, and other Asian visitors, spend less than visitors from America and Europe. As I have also already said, Middle Eastern visitors spent the most in 2019--72,000 baht each. But, in 2019 there were less than 100,000 of them. I'll also ask again, would you rather have 100,000 checks for 72,000 baht sent to you or would you rather have 10.9 million checks for 48,000 baht sent to you? I'm going to choose the latter. Which provides more benefit to the Thai economy? Obviously, the latter, as well. While tourists benefit the economy, there is no denying that too many can be too much of a good thing--true for other places and not just Thailand. (Hello, Venice.) Thailand at some point will need to address how much is too much; but that doesn't seem to be anytime soon when they are crowing about possibly 80 million tourists in a few years--more than the entire population of the country.

As always, deflection when you have no answer. And, in this case, incorrect deflection. The Base was fully booked long before its completion--I think even before ground was broken. Of course, booked does not mean sold. At the project's completion, several hundred units that were booked came back on the market when the buyers could not complete the sale. Sansiri then sold these units to other buyers. In any case, your incorrect deflection is totally irrelevant to what I posted, that The Base and Markland have increased in value--with nice and new development going in near them. Your big howler, though, is your claim that there are no buyers looking for seaview condos. According to you, 'That ship sailed years ago...'. Seriously? Nobody is that clueless. Several weeks ago I sent you on an assignment to check the condo sales at Riviera Wong Amat and then go to Riviera Jomtien and then to Riviera Monaco. You should have learned something. All three of these projects were not built 'years ago' and, with all three, the majority of the units offer a seaview. If nobody is buying seaview condos, how did these projects get majority sold? Ditto for Unixx, Zire, Northpoint. Wong Amat Tower. Baan Plai Haad. Centric Sea. Lumpini Park Beach. Northshore. Cetus. The Cliff. The Palm. Amari. Reflection. Aeras. And, any other project you can mention with seaview units. Talk to any condo sales person and they'll tell you the seaview condos with the best views get booked first. What's the value of a seaview condo? A 72 sqm condo on floor 7 at Northpoint is listed at 7.5MB. No seaview. Same condo, floor 29 with seaview, 10.25MB. You'll find similar examples at every condo project I listed, and any others offering seaview units and non-seaview units. Just as an aside, my partner and I have only ever bought seaview units in Pattaya and its worked out nicely. So, Client 2 is wisely still looking for a condo in north Pattaya beach, killer seaview, at least 60 sqm, foreign name, and budget of 9MB. How are you doing finding him something from your 'thousands' of unsold condos for sale? I've found him a 68 sqm unit at Northshore. Foreign quota, nice seaview, floor 26, 7.9MB. There is also a 64 sqm condo on floor 25 for 8.5MB. And, another 64 sqm unit on floor 17 for 8.9MB. Also an 80 sqm unit on floor 20 for 9MB and a 64 sqm on floor 21 for 9MB. Markland has a 1 bedroom 70 sqm lower floor with not really a 'killer seaview" for 4.9MB. Foreign quota was not mentioned in the listing--would have to be checked. Centric Sea does not have 1 bedrooms in the 60 sqm range. He could buy a 2 bedroom 58 sqm on floor 33 for 6.2MB. Also one on floor 39 for 6.3MB. A 68 sqm on floor 28 offers better seaviews than the previous units. It's 7.9MB. Ditto for a 60 sqm on floor 28 for 8.2MB. So, looks like Northshore or Centric Sea offer Client 2 about the only realistic choices for what he is looking for. As I said in a previous post, your 'thousands' of condos for sale get whittled down to a handful of choices at this project, a handful at that project, when location, price, and wants and needs are plugged in. It will be the same for Client 1 looking for the 2 bedroom in Wong Amat--there will be a few here, a few there to look at with the various projects, not your 'thousands'. Client 3, looking for the 1 bedroom in Jomtien, will have the most choices as there are more condo projects in Jomtien than in north Pattaya and Wong Amat--and more of the small 1 bedrooms she is looking for. But, again, not your 'thousands'.

You first.

Asked and answered. But, here's some 'optimism'. There were less than 500,000 international tourists in 2021. 2022 brought about 11 million. 20 some million are predicted for 2023. She should have more customers this year than the previous two years.

Her restaurant has managed to survive 3 years of covid--she doesn't need any advice from me, a non-restauranteur.

Probably way fewer than what you'd be happy to hear about, with your pessimistic outlook. Remember, we're talking about over 6 million tourists traveling independently in 2019.

No, something nice and new going in usually doesn't diminish your property. Why would it? Take a look at Hipflat's price per sqm for The Base. The Edge--nice and new--went in right next door. The Base's price per sqm is going up, not down. Same for the Markland, an older condo project near Terminal 21. At one point it was down around 60,000 baht a sqm. All the new development nearby has carried it along and it's now at around 80,000 baht a sqm. Just two examples. Perhaps you're still on that track of yours that had T21 opening 700 stores and you thinking it automatically put 700 other stores out of business, for a net gain of 'zero'. That's not how business--and property values--work. No, you have said there are 'thousands' of condos for sale, repeating it several times just in this post. I have said I don't know how many there are--but I have used your 'thousands' when I have given examples of the normal buying and selling of condos experience. What matters most to me--as a buyer or a seller--is not the total number of condos for sale but the number of condos for sale that match what I am trying to buy or sell. Speaking of, with your 'thousands' of condos for sale, what have you found for clients 1, 2, and 3 to buy that meet their area of choice, price, and wants and needs? How about this. Just do client 2 for a start, the easiest of the 3. You have your supposedly 'thousands' of condos to choose from, it should be a piece of cake. He's the single guy looking for a north Pattaya beach 1 bedroom with a killer seaview, foreign quota, 60 sqm minimum size, 9MB budget. With your 'oversupply' of your 'thousands' of condos, let's see what you can come up with.

61% of the Chinese tourists in 2019 were independent travelers and not in tour groups. But, don't let facts get in your way. . .

61% of the Chinese tourists were traveling independently in 2019, not in tour groups. Whether in tours or traveling independently, they spent 531 billion baht in Thailand, the most of any country, and greatly benefitting the economy.

Pity that money wasn't spent on improving education. Tourists have and will continue to come to Thailand without any campaign from TAT. Think about the last place you visited. Did you choose it because of some government campaign? I know I never have.

Did you find the ridiculous supply and demand quote that you said I posted? Thought not. Well, keep looking--but it's not there. Yes, location, location, location. Generally, building something nice and new will add value, not lessen it. They bulldozed something old and ugly and built T21. Which made the land around it more valuable and desirable, not less. Which resulted in other nice new projects--like Ozo. Which, in turn, resulted in other nice new projects--like Centre Point Space. Which made the surrounding land even more valuable and desirable, not less. Which is why those old 1 story buildings are now sitting on land that has become far too valuable for 1 story buildings--hence, more bulldozing. I don't know how many condos are on the market here--I was using your example of you always claiming there are 'thousands', and, as you are always posting, since there are your supposed 'thousands', how can anybody ever sell a condo? The buying and selling examples I gave still hold true, even if there are your 'thousand' condos for sale. Why? Because there are not a thousand condos for sale in this project or that project that are, perhaps, what a buyer is looking for. There are more likely a handful in this project, a handful in that project. If you have a specific budget and a list of wants and needs, that will always be the case. If you have an unlimited budget and absolutely no wants or needs, then, yes, every condo for sale would be just the ticket. As I've repeatedly said, buying is a process where the buyer's wants and needs will automatically narrow down the choices when they are plugged into the available stock. Let's do this exercise and you'll see what I mean. You be the real estate agent and I'll present you with 3 condo buyers. See how many 'thousand' condos you can find for each of them to buy, using Hipflat. Client 1. Young couple with 1 child. Looking for a 2 bedroom/2 bath condo in Wong Amat, Short walk to the beach. Must be at least 70 sqm. Project should have covered parking, a pool, and a gym. Foreign quota a must, budget no more than 7MB. Client 2. Single male, looking for 1 bedroom condo in north Pattaya. Killer seaview and foreign quota a must, minimum 60 sqm, budget no more than 9MB. Client 3. Single Thai female, looking for 1 bedroom condo in Jomtien. Must be at least 35 sqm. For privacy and security must be at least floor 3 or above. Does not want pool view with noisy swimmers. Project must be on or close to the baht bus line. Wants a project with lots of amenities built within the last 5 years. Does not want to live in a mega project so only projects with 500 units or less. Budget no more than 3MB. Remember, Hipflat often lists the same condo for sale more than once by different agents. If you prefer, you can use realtor websites, instead. Happy Hunting!

No, it doesn't mean that at all--the article is unclear as to whether her restaurant caters to tour groups. Also unclear is whether she '...needs the Chinese tour groups'. She mentions Chinese tourists being important--which could be independent travelers, those in tours, or both. She also mentions Russians, Koreans, Japanese, and domestic Thais. What it all means is that your negative scenario of her going bankrupt because she is supposedly dependent on Chinese tour operators, and they will force her to lose money and go out of business, and then snap up her business, is just your fantasy, not based on any 'reality', or anything in the article.

Newnative here. Please show me where I have stated: "basic market economics" (supply and demand) do not apply to Pattaya." The reality is I believe just the opposite, and have said so numerous times. To many of this and not enough of that, supply and demand will eventually sort it out. So, once again for the hard of hearing, I believe in supply and demand--for Pattaya and anywhere else--and I also believe in 'build a better mousetrap'--also stated numerous times. The confusion may stem from my statement that when I sell a condo, I am not competing with the thousands of other condos on the market also for sale. Perhaps this stuck in your head. This is true whether the condo I am selling is in Pattaya, Thailand or Reston, Virginia--where I also sold a number of condos--or anywhere else. I am generally only competing with condos for sale that are in my same area, are of similar size, and are in the same ballpark price-wise. A buyer looking for a 2 bedroom seaview in north Pattaya likely will not waste time looking at non-seaview studios in Jomtien. Once you have your basics, you usually further weed out with things like view, age of the condo, number of units in the project, foreign quota, quality of the unit, quality of the project, room plan, project amenities, etc., etc. My partner and I do try to 'build a better mousetrap' with the properties we sell. Even though I have explained this, you don't seem to grasp it. I mentioned buying because it's the same thing. When I go out to buy a condo, I am also not looking at the thousands of condos on the market for sale. The same things I mentioned with selling also enter into the buying experience. You always mention the 'thousands' of condos for sale but, in reality, there were less than a half dozen realistic choices with the last condo my partner and I purchased in Pattaya. Think back to when you were looking for a rental condo. Likely you had, at a minimum, an area in mind where you wanted to live, a size of condo that you preferred, and a price range. Just those three things eliminated lots of rental listings--wrong area, wrong size, wrong price. From what was left, you likely zeroed in on those that also met some of your other wants and needs. Perhaps a gym. Perhaps garage parking. Perhaps a big pool. Perhaps a seaview. Perhaps a big balcony. From many rental choices, you likely narrowed them down to a few that suited best. Having said all that, there is certainly likely more supply, and perhaps less demand, for the many small, non-seaview condos that have been built, some in less than stellar locations. But, again, those condos are still only competing with similar ones in the same area, not all the 'thousands'.

Wrong. (Oh, dear, not again.) I didn't miss anything. Once again, your reading skills are lacking. What she said was: "We hope Chinese tourists can help us to survive from financial problems, as seafood is also popular with them,” Mrs. Premwadee noted. She also said: "Many of the restaurants yet to fully recover are seafood venues dependent on Chinese tourists.” So, with both quotes, she said 'Chinese tourists', not your 'Chinese tours'. Not that Chinese tours, and tours from other countries, don't also support many Thai businesses. Of course, they do. But, that distinction negates yet another one of your half-baked scenarios imagining yet again the demise of a business, based on nothing but your pessimistic outlook. The reality is that in 2019, Mrs. Premwadee would have been more likely to be serving independent Chinese travelers, paying her menu prices, rather than those on group tours, perhaps eating at a discount. Independent Chinese travelers were 61% in 2019 vs. 39% of Chinese on group tours.

Exactly.

2025??? That's not something to be proud of or crow about.

Good.

This is really super fine grifting approaching the order of Trump.

Well, this can't be right. Haven't we heard ad infinitum from our select, super-observant, always on-target forum commentators that Chinese tourists in Thailand only eat at Chinese-owned restaurants? Or, 7-11? That poor Thai restaurant owner quoted in the article might as well stop standing in her doorway waiting for the Chinese tourists. And, let's not even get into the heartbreak of the Thai hotel owners.

Although a separate issue from tourism, I totally agree. I know my partner and I have spent plenty in the 12 years we have been here. We have renovated over 20 properties in those 12 years. The renovations employed plumbers, electricians, carpenters, painters, wallpaper people, furniture makers, drywallers, tilers, etc. The two houses also employed landscapers, pool makers, and concrete workers--some days there were a dozen or more workers on site. Many other expats have also employed workers to do renovation work on their condos and houses; plus, employing local Thais for other work as needed. We contribute to the local economy by buying or renting property, buying motor vehicles, furniture and appliances, housewares, electronics, and so on. We help to keep many restaurants and businesses of all kinds open with our patronage. It would be nice if our contributions were given more recognition, starting with the elimination of 90 day reporting after the first year.

I would rather rely on government stats than on observations from forum members. No matter what statistics are quoted, some will persist in the narrative they have embraced: Chinese are all on 'zero dollar tours'. Chinese only spend at 7-11 and Family Mart. Chinese only stay and eat at Chinese-owned businesses. All the Chinese tourist money goes back to China. Etc., etc. When I have posted, I have tried to correct misinformation. For example, 61% of Chinese visitors were traveling independently in 2019, not in tour groups. Nevertheless, there will be some who will always believe that they are all here on 'zero dollar tours', contributing nothing. Some of the stats I quoted were from the Office of Statistics, which gathers data from a number of sources. Sometimes data will vary between sources. For example, Chinese spending in Thailand in 2019 has been listed as 543 billion baht by Statista and 531 billion baht by the Office of Statistics. They are both in the ballpark of each other--one wasn't saying 100 billion and the other 600 billion. I went with the smaller figure. What I find interesting is some forum members seem to readily accept, without question, any data that they agree with--while, like you, not trusting anything else. For example, I can't remember anybody questioning the statistics on individual tourist spending, when they have been posted. Those stats for 2019 show European tourists spending on average around 68,000 baht, those from 'Americas' at around 71,000 baht, and Chinese tourists spending on average around 48,000 baht. There have been unquestioning posts pointing out how much more valuable western tourists are. One poster remarked that 48,000 baht didn't seem like much to him--while conveniently ignoring that it adds up to 531 billion, more than all of Europe's spending at 459 billion. This is not to say that western tourists aren't important. Of course they are. When you add European and Americas spending in 2019 you get 575 billion--more than China's 531 billion. That should be a statistic posters will embrace. (But it's less than Asia not including China, which is the biggest at over 600 billion baht.)

It's not my 'view'. My view or opinion doesn't come into play. It's just statistics. Data. It's 6.7 million independent Chinese travelers in 2019. Not on so-called 'zero dollar tours'--which aren't zero dollar, by the way. It's Chinese spending of 531 billion baht in Thailand in 2019, the most of any country. (If 'zero dollars' are being spent, how do we get to 531 billion baht spent?) Are there some Chinese in Thailand operating illegal businesses? Likely. Do some Chinese find their way to these businesses? Likely. Do 6.7 million independently-traveling Chinese? Unlikely--but welcome your stats saying otherwise. I'm mostly just stating facts, to counter incorrect conclusions, often based on casual observation. Chinese are observed in 7-11s. Incorrect conclusion--Chinese tourists provide little economic benefit to Thailand. Chinese are observed on tour buses. Incorrect conclusion--they all must be on 'zero dollar' tours, spending nothing, and, again, providing little economic benefit. Of course, Chinese in 7-11s and on tour buses are easy to spot. What's less easy is spotting all those 6.7 billion non-tour Chinese scattered all over Thailand in 2019. In any case, combined, they dropped that 5.31 billion baht in 2019--which is hard to ignore or explain away.