VegasVic

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"If you feeling froggy then leap"

"if you feeling froggy then leap" This coming from the lead frog There is no need for me to leap my friend, I am very comfortable here in Sedona, I travel to Thailand whenever the whim hits me, however I don't think the whim will hit me for quite some time now, at least until they clean up the political mess and have elections again

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Post 35, TAH:

Only partially true but I overall I agree with the sentiment. What else has changed includes tapering of QE and the associated capital outflows.

Another thing that has changed is the viability of the Chinese economy, I note that property prices in China and Singapore still have some way to fall and they are on their way.

Well, I see it that the USA issues make up about 70% of the movements, thailand and the rest 30%.

If the sentiment from the USA is one way and the other 30% help it, it can move quick. The 30% can slow movement,but not make one on its own.

The 30% adds or removes momentum but cannot move it much alone. Chinese property and genral lending is the 100000000 tonne gorilla in the room. How low can Chinese interest rates go to keep the economy moving and how bad will the damage be if and when the property bubble bursts.

Thai at heart, If you look at the real estate numbers out of China the other day you will see that property values have already started to decline, the initial cracks in the Chinese real estate bubble have begun and the shadow banking system will now be exposed for what it is (or is not). Chinese investment in the Kingdom will begin to pull back very shortly and then when the FED begins to increase interest rates these factors will combine to become a double whammy for the Thai baht The decline in the Bahts value should be a good thing for the overall Thai economy, as long as it is a gradual decline and not a crash like in 97

I am not sure what exactly the Chinese are directly investing in in Thailand. They have some FDI, but it still isn't as big as Japan or the USA.

I think the reduction in printing money in the USA is critical. Problem is, when they reduce it,GDP tanks. So they need continual stimulus. At the end of the day, the world is awash with USD debt, so I don't think anything is going to tank versus the USD as it did in 97.

Its a relative and the baht at 33 to the USD seems fair enough considering the mess in Thailand. That can be sorted very fast and if the new junta cuts Thai borrowing but can keep GDP moving all of a sudden Thailand with 3% interest rates and steady GDP growth and stability looks like a good bet. The last thing the USA really wants is a strengthening USD.

The debt to GDP for Thailand still looks low in comparison with the rest of the world. 30 to 33 to the USD seems fair enough.

I hope (and think) that the weakening Baht will be a gradual thing, not like the crash in 97. The markets always determine what is fair (or not fair) , so any arbitrary number like 30 or 33 is just something to talk about. The U.S. has many fiscal problems to be sorted out over the coming years so the U.S. Dollar rising vs the Baht or any other currency is not a statement on how great the U.S. is, rather it is just a matter of how the markets will react to a tightening money supply and rising interest rates and from history we know what will happen when this begins. I will also add that the U.S. Dollar has been held at artificially low levels for many years in order to give its multinational companies and advantage and in an attempt to rectify its trade deficit Where the exchange rate for the Thai Baht shakes out a couple of years from now is anybodies guess, however if I were a wagering man I would wager it will be north of your 30-33 range

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So is this the sweet and calm Thailand we get told about?

Farang being thrown out tall buildings is so common that it hardly draws your attention anymore.

But about the economy, and it is the economy that will get everyone's attention should it collapse, it is in recession likely now.

Should it crash, and it could, this place will get real precarious. Crime will increase. People living in the streets will become common.

But you all know that.

Who runs Thailand now? Is it a group of wealthy that includes the family? I mean they own the army.

Yet it seems that no one knows for sure.

Would trade sanctions from nations change things? Likely the Thai elite would simply dig in and hold on as Thailand turned into Myanmar part II.

But with or without trade sanctions, the economy is going into a deep recession and any recovery will be unlikely under these conditions.

I will know it is over when some of you full time apologists for this Thai regime start to complain. When you wake up and see all your friends moving out of the nation you might get alarmed.

Beer and babes will not make up for the negatives after a time.

Why would there be trade sanctions against Thailand?

In case you didn't pay attention the economy was in a dive while Yingluck was around looking for trade opportunities in Montenegro and the like, it got worse after the slow collapse of the political system. Since the coup most of the commentary on the economy is of relief that stability is returning to the country.

The ammart controlled Bank of Thailand say that things will improve.

The ammart controlled TAT say that things will improve.

The Junta say that they will have 6% groth this year.

Standard and Poor say that the coup is a negative.

Moodys say that the Coup is a negative.

My broker says that the Coup is a negative.

Under the new rules of posting. I say that the coup is a positive and the future of Thailand is Green rather than Red.

Dr. Bruce, How very politically correct of you sir, albeit with your arm twisted behind your back You left out that the TAT is bound to come out with figures any day now showing that there was a substantial increase in tourists visiting Thailand over the past 6 months and of course the proclamation from the coup leaders any day that a real estate/banking crash in China will have little or no effect on the Thai economy Some of the naive posters here with the rose colored glasses on remind me of the old experiment with the frog and the boiling pot of water, if you put a frog into a pot of boiling water he will immediately jump out, however if you put a frog into a pot of water at room temperature and then gradually turn the heat up he will remain in the pot and wind up getting boiled alive

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Post 35, TAH:

Only partially true but I overall I agree with the sentiment. What else has changed includes tapering of QE and the associated capital outflows.

Another thing that has changed is the viability of the Chinese economy, I note that property prices in China and Singapore still have some way to fall and they are on their way.

Well, I see it that the USA issues make up about 70% of the movements, thailand and the rest 30%.

If the sentiment from the USA is one way and the other 30% help it, it can move quick. The 30% can slow movement,but not make one on its own.

The 30% adds or removes momentum but cannot move it much alone. Chinese property and genral lending is the 100000000 tonne gorilla in the room. How low can Chinese interest rates go to keep the economy moving and how bad will the damage be if and when the property bubble bursts.

Thai at heart, If you look at the real estate numbers out of China the other day you will see that property values have already started to decline, the initial cracks in the Chinese real estate bubble have begun and the shadow banking system will now be exposed for what it is (or is not). Chinese investment in the Kingdom will begin to pull back very shortly and then when the FED begins to increase interest rates these factors will combine to become a double whammy for the Thai baht The decline in the Bahts value should be a good thing for the overall Thai economy, as long as it is a gradual decline and not a crash like in 97

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Dear Sumting, At no time did anyone in the U.S. government including Sec. Kerry ever say that the withdrawing of $10 million in aid would detrimental or somehow onerous to Thailand, it is simply the law in the U.S. that once a Democratically elected government is overthrown that aid be recinded As far as "brands" of Democracy go as you put it I was not aware that there were different "brands", Democracy as I have always understood it is one vote for every citizen, which BTW is something that herr suthep has a hard time getting his head around. What you fail to realize in your tunnel visioned little world is that if the entire shin clan were to dissappear tomorrow, it would not make you happy because whatever party formed in the vacuum of the diposed shinawatras it would defeat whatever party the Bangkok elite and southern muslims put up, and that my friend is called Democracy alt=thumbsup.gif>

Those are Somkiat Onwimon words, not mine. Jane 'Fonda Kerry is a fool and a traitor. The USA only allowed land owners to vote when it became a country.

The PTP never got a majority vote.

[ In reality, of the 74% of Thais that turned out to vote on July 3, 2011, only 48% actually cast votes for Peua Thai (PTP). Of all eligible voters, that is a tenuous 35% mandate, hardly what can be called “decisively backed.” ]

In multiparty elections like in Thailand and elsewhere in the world, a 48% share of votes cast is a massive landslide my friend The fact that it is not "the majority vote" as you put it is a red herring, and casting the net out to all those who didn't even participate in the electoral process to try and skew your percentages is sadder yet Yes the U.S. has evolved in its democratic process since the nations inception nearly 240 years ago (as DeTouqueville predicted), however we are not debating history here my friend, but rather representative Democracy in the current times and I feel that you either have a grave misunderstanding of the Thai electorate or else you are in lock step with herr suthep in the feeling that the "buffolos" who reside in the Thai countryside don't derserve the vote. Either way you are on the wrong side of the future for Thailand alt=wai2.gif width=20 height=20>

I put that in [ ] because that is from another article. So you believe that if 100 parties run candidates and 1 of them get 5% or the vote aand the other 99 get an equal split of the remainder votes, you consider that a landslide mandate for your party to be a democratic dictator and they are above the laws and above the constitution and above the monarchy and have a get oput of jail free card for anything they do until they are voted out. You have a communist view of the definition of democracy.

Once again you throw out ridiculous numbers and percentages in an attempt to further skew the facts of the situation. There is an old saying in the accounting business that comes to mind for people like you my friend "liars can figure but figures don't lie" Now back to the actual facts, there were multiple parties running candidates for election in Thailand and PTP won 48% of all votes cast, and that was indeed a landslide by any metric As for me, I am an unadulterated capitalist and fiscal conservative, you on the other hand are clearly a fascist just like your hero suthep, now go right ahead and rail on about Thaksin or whatever bogeyman you want to dream up, meanwhile when the next election in Thailand is held the PTP or whatever party takes its place will once again win a resounding victory with or without the Shinawatras

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I think all of you should be so ashamed of yourselves the Thai Baht in two years shall be 28.78 to the dollars Buy the Baht and be a positive richer pro Thai Farang

Harry, I hope you are not "eating your own cooking" with that advice there my friend, because the Baht/Dollar will likely be close to 36 by years end and the Dollar will contiue to gain strength during 2015 as the FED is forced to rein in the money supply and begin to raise interest rates The free ride that U.S. multinational corporations have been enjoying for the past 10 years with the artificially weak U.S. dollar is about to come to and end, and far as the value of the Thai Baht vs. the Dollar goes the Baht will most definately weaken thereby helping Thai exports and the overall Thai economy, the BOT will have very little control as to where the Baht winds up vs. the Dollar once the interest rates in the U.S. begin to rise

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Dear John Kerry,
$10 million aid-cut means very little to Thailand. The Thaksin regime has abused more than $8,000 million out of the national budget. If the US is so happy and proud to support Thaksin corrupted regime, so be it. Someday the US will wake up and realize the difference between the authoritarian Thaksin regime under the disguise of their brand of democracy, and the full democracy as described by Alexis de Tocqueville 180 years ago. We in Thailand are now fiercely fighting for full democracy and will not settle for less.

Dear BBC and CNN,
Crisis in Thailand is certainly beyond your grasp. Time and more education will improve your understanding of Thailand.
Somkiat Onwimon
Bangkok
23 May 2014

Dear Sumting, At no time did anyone in the U.S. government including Sec. Kerry ever say that the withdrawing of $10 million in aid would detrimental or somehow onerous to Thailand, it is simply the law in the U.S. that once a Democratically elected government is overthrown that aid be recinded As far as "brands" of Democracy go as you put it I was not aware that there were different "brands", Democracy as I have always understood it is one vote for every citizen, which BTW is something that herr suthep has a hard time getting his head around. What you fail to realize in your tunnel visioned little world is that if the entire shin clan were to dissappear tomorrow, it would not make you happy because whatever party formed in the vacuum of the diposed shinawatras it would defeat whatever party the Bangkok elite and southern muslims put up, and that my friend is called Democracy alt=thumbsup.gif>

Those are Somkiat Onwimon words, not mine. Jane 'Fonda Kerry is a fool and a traitor. The USA only allowed land owners to vote when it became a country.

The PTP never got a majority vote.

[ In reality, of the 74% of Thais that turned out to vote on July 3, 2011, only 48% actually cast votes for Peua Thai (PTP). Of all eligible voters, that is a tenuous 35% mandate, hardly what can be called “decisively backed.” ]

In multiparty elections like in Thailand and elsewhere in the world, a 48% share of votes cast is a massive landslide my friend The fact that it is not "the majority vote" as you put it is a red herring, and casting the net out to all those who didn't even participate in the electoral process to try and skew your percentages is sadder yet Yes the U.S. has evolved in its democratic process since the nations inception nearly 240 years ago (as DeTouqueville predicted), however we are not debating history here my friend, but rather representative Democracy in the current times and I feel that you either have a grave misunderstanding of the Thai electorate or else you are in lock step with herr suthep in the feeling that the "buffolos" who reside in the Thai countryside don't derserve the vote. Either way you are on the wrong side of the future for Thailand

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if you're looking for appreciation I think it's more about timing than the averages. They will appreciate over time but how much greatly depends on when you buy or sell.

In Thailand the price of land and housing seems to go up without any rational reason, I imagine that this will continue until the day it no longer rises Ask some folks who owned property prior to 1997 and they will let you know what can happen When the property bubble and shadow banking bubble bursts in China, this will have strong shock waves throughout the entire region so tread cautiously my friend

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Can you post the upcoming weather report as well please.

Any brokerage firm that has this exact (not to mention overly rosy) a forecast given the depths of uncertainty in Thailand currently, is either totally arrogant or totally clueless, or both What I know for certain is that there were 16 billion baht of net redemptions in the SET and Thai bond market on Friday alone by international investors, this was reported on BBC international business earlier today. It will be interesting to see if these redemptions continue over the ensuing weeks. As far as a month, 2 months , 6 months or a year from now goes nobody really has a clue, for all we know Thailand could be in the midst of an all out civil war a year from now (lets hope not)

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“First they came for the red shirts, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a red shirt;
Then they came for the journalists, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a journalist;
Then they came for the academicss, and I did not speak out—
because I was not an academic;
Then they came for the visa runners, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a visa runner;
Then they came for me—
and there was no one left to speak out for me.”

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Chinese seem happy enough, does the US want to be stupid enough to let Thailand move under the sphere of the chinese... They have more than enough money to cover the pittance from the yanks.Obama is such a dissapointment.

Agreed that Obama is a major dissappointment, however the real question is does Thailand want to become a vassal state of the Chinese??? There are some tough and quite scary choices that the Generals will have to make if they really intend on running the country for an extended period of time

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The US should stick to its rules and suspend any aid just like it would to any military dictatorship. This small amount is piddling.

Noitom, Very true, and I think they will suspend all aid like they have to by law, but even $10 million is a piddling amount! The real hurt will come when the U.S. government puts a halt to all military shipments of any kind to Thailand, as the Thai military is not well stocked in the spare parts department src="data:image/gif;base64,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" alt=thumbsup.gif> Hopefully it will not come to this, but I must say it is looking kind of scary right about now, what with this latest news of abolishing the Senate and taking absolute dictatorial power

Give samples of the parts to China - they will happily copy, manufacture and supply they at a lower cost, 55

If the spare parts were cheap plastic parts then you are correct China does excel at reproducing cheap plastic parts, however these spare parts are high tech, state of the art avionics, not something any country would trust to china to produce

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Germany trying to tell Thai army what to do is a joke, Germans killed millions with chlorine.!!

Germans love to scam and pimp Thai women especially that guy Gunther in Soi Cowboy

America showed balls going to Iraq and Afgan but are prickless when it comes to Boko Haram and they are trying to tell Thailand what to do - jokers!!

Run your own nation well well before being so arrogant to tell others what to do

Mr. Ali, America is not "prickless" as you put it, however we do currently have a President who most definitely is prickless

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/thailand/10852417/Crown-Prince-of-Thailand-takes-refuge-in-5-star-Hampshire-hotel.html

Connect the dots . . . it's not so hard if you take the blinders off . . .

You don't need an article like that to connect the dots, but it certainly does make it easy The military overthrow of the Thai government was a given once a certain someone passes, this current action just pushes things up a bit. I actually feel quite sad for HRH having to see all of this unfold, he has been such a strong, influential and positive force for Thailand over all these years

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I can assure all on this board that TRUE Americans support a freely and fairly elected government.

Those spouting all the vitriol are also likely Fox News and Republican Tea Party fanatics (i.e. loonies). Those people are not true Americans. They are zealots and bigots.

Well spoken by a zealot and bigot.

Over the years America supported ( instigated/partcipated ) in the overthrow or attempted of so many many Governments around the world I would need all day to list them.

But I will list a few by CIA

Iran 1953

Guatemala 1954

Congo 1960

Dominican Republic 1961

South Vietnam 1963

Brazil 1964

Chile 1973

And a famous fail

Bay of Pigs, Cuba l

The CIA taking unilateral clandestine action and "Americans supporting this or that overthrow" is more than a mild stretch my friend, but then again you are just attempting to make a slanted political point, so carry on with your hyperbole As far as zealots and bigots are concerned, they fall on both sides of the political spectrum fairly evenly, actually some of the biggest bigots and hypocrites I have encountered in my life have been liberals who tout themselves as open minded and intellectual and yet they have often been the most narrow minded people I have ever encountered

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The banner should read "Thaksin and Yingluck the comedy duo appearing daily".

Yes indeed, and they will be a comedy duo, that is until the first foreign nation recognizes them Should the U.N., E.U., U.S., Japan or another major country recognize them as the rightful leaders of a government in exile, then the comedy will not be so funny for those military leaders who put themselves out on a limb. If they do indeed set up a government in exile then I think that the U.N. would likely be the first to recognize them and start sanctions against Thailand alt=wai2.gif width=20 height=20>

Regardless of UN, US, EU or whatever international condemnation of the coup, absolutely no country (except perhaps N. Korea or Zimbabwe and such-like) will recognise a fugitive ex PM and a sacked PM as a legitimate government in exile. Now had Yingluck been deposed by the coup, it might have been a different matter, but she wasn't. She was legally dismissed.

You are quite naive my friend, the constitutional (kangoroo) courts verdict of Ms. Shinawatra was the first shot fired in the coup Ms. Shinawatra and the Senate that was just overthrown by mein General are viewed as the "legal" government of Thailand by most of the worlds major powers Should the new military dictator of Thailand call for elections later this summer, then it may appease some of these countries so long as the newly elected government takes over full control of the country and the military steps back to where they belong With that said I think that Prayuth is skating on some very thin ice at the moment, should he postpone elections until "some vague future date" then I think that there could very well be economic sanctions imposed by many nations on Thailand, and given that Thailand is currently in a recession this would not bode well for the Thai economy for many years hence

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The US should stick to its rules and suspend any aid just like it would to any military dictatorship. This small amount is piddling.

Noitom, Very true, and I think they will suspend all aid like they have to by law, but even $10 million is a piddling amount! The real hurt will come when the U.S. government puts a halt to all military shipments of any kind to Thailand, as the Thai military is not well stocked in the spare parts department Hopefully it will not come to this, but I must say it is looking kind of scary right about now, what with this latest news of abolishing the Senate and taking absolute dictatorial power

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This could get very ugly.

I hope you are wrong, however my hunch is that you are correct. The longer this military dictatorial state goes on the larger the popular uprising against it will be. The first thing to look for will be splinter groups of the military breaking off and challenging Heir Prayuths control For those out there in thaivisa land who think this is just another military coup and all will be well in a few months, think again, the dynamic is much different this time around

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He will also name himself First Lord of the Treasury, Lord Chief Justice, Commander-in-Chief, Lord High Admiral... Archbishop of Titipu, and Lord Mayor" and Lord High Everything Else as he is the Grand Poobah.

Kind of reminds me of another meglomaniac....... zieg heil mein heir

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If the army were so concerned they could have stopped all of this nonsense along time ago by ensuring that soldiers were manning polling stations in the February elections in order that every Thai national could go and cast there vote, instead they allowed the opposition to disrupt polling stations throughout the country which in turn stopped those entitled to vote from voting it appears to me the only winner in this sordid affair is Khun Suthep he has achieved what he set out to do and it appears the army will now self select who they want to run the country and only on the armies terms.

The Army has no interest in free and fair elections because they know very well what the results will be, the only chance they and their puppet suthep have is to seize power illegally like they just did and try and rewrite the Thai constitution "yet again", and of course disband the PTP. Should the Generals put off elections for too long this time around then I feel that there could be a popular uprising and likely a breaking in the military ranks, it could get very ugly and General Prayuth should consider this as well as a possible appearance at the international criminal tribunal in the Hague a few years hence

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"...in country where the courts and army have removed a government..."

You are, of course, aware that "the government" was dissolved some months ago by Yingluck and the military has stepped in to attempt to bring an end to the partisan violence on both sides and an acting caretaker P.M. with a cabinet in tatters has stepped down after much pressure. A bit different to what you are used to obviously.

.

Maybe he should have added "in violation with the Constitution."

The voluntary dissolution of parliament by the majority party the PTP was made in good faith consistent with the Constitution to give the opposition party an opportunity to redress its issues with the PTP in a public forum and campaign for electoral support. The formation of an interim government was also consistent with the Constitution. But with the military coup overthrow of the elected government was to suspend the Constitution. If the military was only concerned with preventing violence, it was already doing that successfully in cooperation with the Government. But it couldn't resist becoming involved in the politics of government and make itself the supreme governor of the nation. Old habits die hard.

Or as Albert Einstein was famous for saying " Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting to get a different result" This aggressive move by the Thai military was inevitable once "you know who" passed away anyway, it just happend a year or two earlier than expected! The Generals will obviously try and rewrite the Thai constitution YET AGAIN and even if they are able to disband the PTP, what ever takes its place will get resoundingly elected! What these ignorant posters here on TV just never seem to grasp is that, Shins or no Shins it really doesn't matter, the Thai people have felt their power in this democracy and they will vote their interest every time As a matter of fact I think that the suthepites and the generals have likely pissed off the majority of Thais who feel their vote was nullified by these hooligans, so the next election will likely be an even bigger landslide for PTP or whatever party takes its place

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The sad thing about this article is that it is written by someone with a good education but who unfortunately has not escaped from the Thai physche of believing no one can understand unless they are Thai - as if Thais were a human race apart. What most of the foreign press and governments are concerned about is the rights of ordinary Thai people to have a democratically elected government, something that most mature countries guage as paramount. Most outsiders see military intervention as antidemocratic because in all the coup d'etats that have happened this has been the case and in Thailand's case the aftermaths have usually lead the country backwards. The genuine belief of the foreign press and international community of helping Thailand and its wonderful population finding its way to democracy should not be underestimated.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Leggo, You have of course stated the obvious here, and it is refreshing to see this and a few other straightforward objective posts on TV. All too often it is the drunk and ignorant posting here on TV

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Really?Mosts books about Thailand and whats going in Thailand are blacklisted.Because the establishment is scared to death things go public.As long some institutions in Thailand are above the law and protected by an undemocratic and biased constitution,as long Thailand goes in circles.Thaksin might be a greedy corrupt guy,but he is smart.he had to go because he was gaining to much power,he tried to take power away from the army,royalists and bkk elite.What happend now was probably long planned by suthep and army and untouchables.Maybe not now but i think in near future we will see a civil war in Thailand,because of institutions like army and others,because the poor want a bit,and the rich don't want to give

Thus the crux of this whole problem. Wasn't there a thread on here recently about Thai exceptionalism?

The bottom line is that 80%+ of Thai people have two choices:

Group A, who have held power either directly or behind the scenes for decades and have done little or nothing to improve the situation for anyone else outside of their group.

Group B, who are as every bit corrupt as Group A, if not more, but sprinkle enough of it around to keep everyone happy.

There's no "Thai nuance" to that situation. It's pretty clear. It's simple human nature. Thai's aren't some special level of human achievement that can't be broken down on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.

A few years back, and I think they keep repeating this poll, they did a poll where some overwhelming majority of Thai people said they didn't mind corruption as long as they benefitted from it. Us westerners pull that out to show how corrupt Thai culture is at its core but, if all you know is Group A and Group B, even that is a perfectly logical choice. If corruption is the norm in politics, the government, etc, the best you can hope for is to at least benefit in some way from it. It doesn't mean that the people themselves are corrupt. It just means that if you just accept that it's corrupt, your only desire is to at least get something out of it.

The people who don't understand Thaksin's popularity need to forget about the corruption and focus on how you would see it if you had the above choices. Likewise, it's easy to see the poor hillbilly's as being too dumb to vote for the right choice if your worldview is based in the fact that you benefit from cheap, uneducated labor.

We, as expats and tourists, actually benefit from this situation and are poor judges of what's right or wrong in Thailand. As soon as I heard about the coup my first reaction was to check exchange rates and pump my fist at the weakening Thai baht because my income sources are in dollars. The relatively low cost of living in Thailand is predicated on the fact that neither Group A or Group B is interested in benefitting the whole Thai economy. Most of us would have been priced out of Thailand long ago if the country was actually doing anything other than funneling large amounts of money to a relatively small number of people.

The only way out for Thailand, over the long term, is for someone who doesn't represent Group A or Group B to bravely take a stand. Sadly, that person stands no chance of dying a natural death. Just as patriots and civil rights leaders have been assassinated in western countries, someone in Thailand needs to be willing to chuck the whole corrupt system out the window. There are very few countries where power was ripped from the powerful and turned back over to the people where blood didn't need to be spilled. That's the difference between Thai democracy and western democracy. Thais have never paid the price. They don't cherish democracy. They don't understand it as a fundamental human right.

It's hard for us foreigners to understand the Thai mentality because someone already paid that price for us. We grew up expecting it. And it's hard for Thais to understand our mentality because they haven't yet paid the price.

To really, really understand, I had to see my wife adapt to US culture. I still remember the first time a late night talk show host ripped on Obama and my wife's jaw dropped. She simply could not fathom that this guy was not going to be arrested the next day. Or imagine the shock of a Thai seeing the rule of law being applied equally who has only known corruption. Not that the US is democracy nirvana. It's not. But compared to what Thais call democracy, it's light years away.

This is an excellent post. The best I've read on this forum for a long time. Totally nails it. Well done and thanks!

I'll second that